Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification or IPC, on which the United Nations depends to determine the level of nutritional crises around the world, delivered the good news on Friday that Gaza is now no longer in famine.
While that report is welcome, the situation that Israel is imposing on ordinary Palestinians a in Gaza is still catastrophic. On Wednesday night, a newborn died of hypothermia, as cold rains lash the Strip and thousands suffer from inadequate housing, what with the deliberate Israeli bombing of most of the apartment complexes.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports that “Between 10 October and 16 December, some 9,000 MT [mega-tons] of aid supplies were rejected by Israeli authorities for entry into Gaza, mainly requests submitted by local and international NGOs on the grounds that the organizations were not authorized to bring relief items into Gaza, items considered by Israeli authorities to fall outside the “humanitarian” category, or items classified as “dual-use.” In November, such rejected requests included frozen meat, tropical fruit, biscuits, vehicles, power equipment, specialized machinery, multipurpose tents, and learning and recreational materials for children.”
OCHA also reports that “Severe storm conditions have resulted in reported deaths, flooding incidents that affected nearly 55,000 households, and the evacuation of 370 families from shoreline sites.”
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In its report, the IPC cautions Gaza is not out of the woods. In the worst case scenario, i.e. “renewed hostilities and a halt in humanitarian and commercial inflows,” Gaza will remain in famine conditions through April. It should be noted that hostilities have not actually halted, and no independent aid group working in Gaza thinks the Israelis are letting in enough food, so the situation is on a knife edge already and could easily deteriorate.
On the other hand, in the best case scenario, that things settle down, the number of people facing IPC Phase 5 food insecurity, i.e. “Catastrophe,” is expected to fall to 1,900 by April under current conditions. Actually, the prospect of 1,900 people essentially starving sounds pretty serious to me, but it is an improvement over late summer and early fall when the UN declared the whole strip was declared a famine zone, deliberately inflicted by the Netanyahu government.
IPC .
So, at the moment, Gaza is out of a famine situation, and if things go well, the number of those starving will decline precipitously.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that in October and November 2025, “the majority of the population continued to face high levels of acute food insecurity, including over 500,000 people facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and more than 100,000 experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).”
In the Gaza Governorate, acute malnutrition is Phase 4, “critical” levels. In Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis governorates, malnutrition is Phase 3, “serious.”
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These levels are projected to continue over the next five months if things remain as they are and don’t worsen.
IPC .
The IPC projects that under current conditions, 100,000 children in Gaza will suffer from acute malnutrition over the coming year, including 31,000 cases of severe acute malnutrition.
In addition, 37,000 pregnant and breast-feeding women will need extra food.
IPC .
Over the next 5 months, most of Gaza will still be at “emergency” levels of food insecurity even if the situation doesn’t worsen.
IPC .
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports that it is still necessary to ration food in December because the Israelis are letting in too little of it.
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