The Coming McCain Military Draft
There has been almost no discussion in the press about the broader implications of John McCain's military policies.
McCain wants to keep a large military contingent in Iraq for some years to come.
He agrees that more US troops should be sent to Afghanistan. (Obama wants more troops for Afghanistan but will draw down the ones in Iraq so that is a wash).
McCain has joked about bombing Iran, accuses Iran of sending insurgents into Iraq, and pledges to stop Iran's nuclear research program. McCain has said, "There is only one thing worse than a military solution, and that, my friends, is a nuclear-armed Iran."
McCain has all but pledged a war on Iran. (In contrast, Obama says he will conduct direct tough diplomacy with Tehran).
McCain is also a hawk on Georgia in the Caucasus and if he is to remain credible he'd have to increase US troop presence in the Greater Middle East.
Although US military re-enlistments in the ten combat divisions have not fallen in the way some observers had feared, that statistic only speaks to the ability of the US military to maintain the status quo. Even that ability is in long-term question, as African-American enlistments, traditionally a significant proportion, slip.
But McCain is not about the military status quo. He is ambitious for further conflicts. The current US military is too small to handle yet another front, and to maintain, as McCain insists they must, the current ones.
My friends, there is only one way for McCain to make good on his hawkish foreign policy and his virtual pledge of more wars.
McCain will need to institute a draft for young American men (and, given the times, maybe for women as well).
McCain has been frank about this issue (see youtube):
The argument that Congress would have to approve the draft does not reckon with the executive's power in modern practice to begin military conflicts that then dragoon the legislature into funding and supporting them (look at the Pelosi Congress, which wanted out of Iraq as of Jan. 2007 but was blocked by the Republican plurality in the Senate). Bush discussed with Blair getting up a phony provocation that looked like it was coming from Iraq, as a way of getting into a war. The executive, with its legion of black ops units, can always get up a Gulf of Tonkin incident and stampede the the legislature into emergency measures. It could even start with a "temporary" draft, analogous to the "temporary" Bush tax cuts for the billionaires, which McCain now insists must be permanent.
As for the argument that the USG can't afford a draft, uh, I've got news for the civilians who say this. They don't pay draftees anything to speak of, and they have plenty of cots and plenty of barracks and old blankets. If it happens, you'll see what a good deal it is for the USG, especially compared to the $200,000 a year they pay the mercs.
If you are in your late teens and early twenties, or if you are a parent of a person that age, and you have strong views on a renewed draft, it should come into your decision about whether to vote on Tuesday and for whom.
- Juan Cole
author, Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East
posted by Juan Cole @ 11/03/2008 12:12:00 PM
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73 Comments:
Dr. Cole,
Long time reader, first time poster. My own personal thoughts on the topic you bring up is that there is another very likely outcome of the scenario you paint. A President McCain would know the electoral suicide of reinstating the draft; it would take not just a policy-misstep but an active and willful desire to alienate the GOP from a generation of voters for McCain to make that move. But none of this is to say that your summary of McCain's military ambitions is inaccurate.
Thus, President McCain would work himself in an untenable and unsustainable position -- a position in which the US military is required to be in many places at once, but has too few forces to be successful in them. In other words, rather than re-institute the draft, President McCain would simply fail: fail in Iraq, fail in Afghanistan, fail to exert a significant role in Georgia, ignite but fail in a war with Iran.
I don't think McCain will reinstitute a draft, and I am skeptical that the suggestion he would is going to be seen as credible by young American voters. Instead, he will attempt global military action as you describe using the army we have, with all too predictable results.
Thank you for your wonderful column, which I read daily.
Dr. Jason Tondro
Ha!
Automatic instauring of a draft (yes, women included) for every American between the ages of 18 and 45 should be government policy anytime Congress or the president(as Congress seems to have ceded its power to declare war to the White House) decide to declare war, authorize the use of force or invade another country. Everyone should be required to put her/his life in the balance if it is deemed indispensable for our safety as a nation to inflict deadly damage on others.
Letting the poorer members of our society risk their lives, or better yet, handsomely paying private armies to wage war on our behalf is beneath us and exacts its pound of flesh on our society, regardless of our distance from the stench where the killing is meted out in our name.
What is the American military goal in Afghanastan? I am really lost as to understand it. None of the 911 men were from Asia. They were mostly Saudis living in Germany.
hmmmmmm
Aren’t you engaging in some fear-mongering here? Even if the Republicans regain Congress, which seems highly unlikely, do you really believe the Republican party would commit political suicide by bringing back the draft?
Here is a scary figure.
According to Frontline, there are 45 million Pashtuns, roughly twice as many as there are Iraqis and 40 times as many as there are Chechnyans.
That means that we can redeploy every soldier and every contractor from Iraq to Afghanistan and we would still be short handed.
Dear Dr Comics, McCain may very well dig himself soo deep in foreign wars that he will have no choice but to institute a draft [regardless of its unpopularity]... and if the wars are burning bright enough a Democratic congress may actually have to allow him to do it.
It certainly wouldn't be the first time that McCain has done something rash, stupid, ill-considered, reckless, and or dangerous.
I have heard similar comments by many folks and if this sentiment is out there in the wider public, I wonder why the media has never picked up on it instead of the boring pols they focus on. The media maybe just too clever for us today, manufacturing headlines and avoiding controversial topics when they can, they are too sacred of sounding like they are anti war. The blog gave a better rationalization of what the buzz is and around common folks there is a weariness of the war and people believe that the first thing McCain will do is bring back the draft and this is despite what all the media pundits say and tell us, many folks might be casting an anti war vote.
While I am not a fan of McCain, I do not agree with your argument. You have not exausted all possibilities. You want your readers to make quite a leap with you. Is it possible that the military could offers some incentives? How about the use of Blackwater and other such companies?
I don't think any poltical party would re-institute the draft. The first reason being that there would be no political support from the voters. The second is that it would be self-defeating. I think one lesson taken from Vietnam, unfortunately one of the only lessons, is that consription makes people pay attention and demand more accountability. When it's the poor and lower class who are fighting and dying, it's easier to wage a stupid war. When it's the children of the middle class, it's an another matter entirely.
McCain has done plenty of reckless rash counterproductive and dangerous things in the past. Why would you expect him to suddenly do the cautious thing regarding a draft??? If he can start enough wars, to get the USA in real danger [not like the cartoon danger of WMDs] he may even force congress to go along with the draft.
Here's a thought regarding a draft:
I'm interested in knowing what effect that will have on the "Don't ask, Don't tell" policy. If we instate a draft, will being gay or claiming to be gay be a free pass out of the military? Or will the military have to cancel and/or update this policy?
Here's McCain's stance position on the policy:
http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
--------------------------
Obama 2008
“Mad McCain” videos: http://tv1.com/playlists/show/11
Point taken. But I have to say I'm not convinced that a draft would be a bad thing. In fact, if I had a wish list it would start with doing away with the War Powers Act and passing a Constitutional Amendment **requiring** a Declaration of War (none of this tripe that let Bush invade Iraq) and a draft anytime the President orders a deployment larger than one division in size.
A mandatory draft would ensure that Congress has a better reason than suspected WMD for America's next war.
If McCain wins and reinstates the draft, do you really think anyone would show up? I don't know anyone under 30 that wouldn't be online within minutes of a draft announcement joining the facebook resistance movement or whatever. There would be a "burn your draft card" web app built overnight (installed on your iphone in seconds!)... we would be laughing in his old wrinkly face. What are you going to do, arrest an entire generation?
We might be wimps, but we're organized wimps. We are smarter and faster than you, John, and we will always find a way around any attempt to shut down or censor the technology that connects us and breathes life into our (tech) revolution.
This is why your campaign has been an EPIC FAIL. Maybe you should have figured out how to use the google before you ran for president. After you lose the election on Tuesday, I hope you can still sell 6 or so of your houses in the GOP-induced deflated-dollar, real estate crisis market so you can officially be the last person in your generation who can actually afford to retire.
Peace out, McCainosaurus!
There is a traditional alternative to the draft which is extremely effective in generating a volunteers.
It is called financial desperation.
Conveniently enough the wheels are already in an advanced state of motion, with the recent involuntary draining of the American public's wealth.
What a conicidence!
There's no way the Democratic Congress would pass a bill to resume the draft and The President can't do it on his own. Case closed
hey
Whats wrong with a Draft? whats wrong with everyone bearing hte burden for a War that was truly necessary? forget about Iraq for a second and Forget about your views on President Bush, Rumsfield, cheney and all the other Jokers. But if the United States is faced with a REAL threat as in WWII, whats wrong with reinstating the Draft? Can someone explain this to me?
"In other words, rather than re-institute the draft, President McCain would simply fail: fail in Iraq, fail in Afghanistan, fail to exert a significant role in Georgia, ignite but fail in a war with Iran."
Dr. Tondro, you CANNOT be serious?! John McCain "fail" at WAR?? That is the equivalent of SURRENDERING. John McCain would rather cut off his penis than to fail/surrender.
What planet are you living on??
And, yes, "President" McCain has a draft in his sights!
I too think John McCain would institute a draft for the reasons you mentioned. He would be a one term president and in characteristic "maverick" fashion he would do it to enable his military visions. He really wouldn't have anything to loose. In his vision of victory and dominance he would bask in the glory of military accomplishments as he has in the effectiveness of the surge.
In the same way he pushed the surge and would want a larger force in the wars we have and those he would start. His eye is on Iran, he spoke of invading Iraq even before 9/11 and he has made hawkish statements towards Syria. He is completely defined by the military.
any draft would have to be passed by congress.
I believe both McCain (for his wars) and Obama (for his inner city community projects) want a draft/national service.
the question is whether it would be easier for McCain or Obama to get it thru a Pelosi/Reid congress
Aloha Juan,
As I recall, it has not been too many months since an opinionated jackass posing as you stated that Iran could now make enough Tritium to make a watch glow in the dark and that they were ten years away from a nuke.
I don't believe McCain was joking about bombing Iran. That is the only viable option he would have. The country can no longer afford to gear up for and initiate another draft to prosecute another war. We cannot even finish the undeclared wars we are now fighting.
And as much as I dislike McCain, I believe that every citizen should have a duty to serve his or her country in some positive way just as your own own shining example of public service to the country has demonstrated.
Reasons why a draft will never happen:
1. The economy under McCain will be in such a shambles that there will be plenty of unemployed minorities and aliens to enlist for economic reasons (yes, the law allows us to draft aliens). Our incarceration rate is already the world's highest so there'll be no more room to house the 3 million newly unemployed.
2. Any president finding need for massive armies, is one who sees the world in children's storybook good vs. evil, win vs. lose reference-frames, and thus wouldn't utilize ground troops without first using massive air-power and ultimately small nuclear exchanges, as needed. That's what happened on a smaller scale when Nixon took over from Johnson.
By that time, we will either grow up or die.
3. I disagree that a draft is politically unfeasible because if we continue to irritate the hell out of enough countries to incite them (or vice versa) to attack the U.S. or Israel or some other close relative, the public and students would be 100% behind conscription, as our policies that led to such attacks would be disallowed from our consciousness.
But this will not necessitate a draft anyway because the Infantry is well on its way to technological obsolescence. I do relish the idea of McCain justly punishing Americans for electing him by dragging the poor sillies off to die in another war, but sadly, I am not "informed" enough to rationalize such fantasies as having realistic prospects.
I have just stumbled upon your column and found it frighteningly honest. Yes, the maths (again). Not enough young people for the corpulent generals safe behind lines to send to the slaughter = enforced enrollment in the military. Having said that, I would rather the US--when it chooses to violate international law and go kicking the s**t out of tiny nations send its troops under its flag. The Blackwaters of your country are nothing but thugs with guns answerable to no-one. At least the army has UCMC.
Anthrogirl.November 3, 2008
I agree that McCain's bellicosity might make a draft a necessity, and at that point the fate of the Republican Party's reputation would be moot. What I'd like to see discussed is a civilian service "draft" a one year committment for young men and women prior to college, AND, a one year committment from those just retiring! There is so much good we could all do.
EXACTLY RIGHT! As someone who managed to evade the Vietnam draft through some very stressful encounters with the Selective Service Board, I can assure all the young bodies out there that nothing will sharped your interest in politics like the likelihood of dying for something you're conscientiously opposed to.
If you're apathetic as to who's the Commander in Chief be prepared to throw your life on the bonfire and die a meaningless death for reasons you can't yet fathom. Patrick Buchannan has said of John Mc Cain, , "He's gonna make Cheney look like Mahatma Gandi".
Vote as though your life depends on it because it does.
A draft is the only way that McCain could ever hope to pull off his ambitious foreign policy objectives. The number of combat and support personnel currently engaged in already ongoing conflicts is reaching or has reached the breaking point. Further commitments will only make the matter worse. The number of troops and equipment McCain would need to further his goals simply do not exist at the present time. A vote for McCain is a simple way to request your draft notice.
McCain already agreed with the mother of a solder that a draft will be needed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LZQGxaXGqe4
He has also implied that he will be a one term president, and thus would face no political penalty for such an unpopular act.
the reason bush is still in office is because he didn't invoke a draft for the phony 'global war on terror'. Had he done this they would be kicked to the curb in 2004 and they knew it. The highly accelerated economic destruction thru 'globalization' policies against American workers (a freidman farcical concept ala Chile circa 1973) will leave little opportunity for young people to have gainful employment in the US and more war will be the 'logical solution' aka Germany circa early 1930's after Weimarizing the country.
"Come on mothers throughout the land
pack your boys off to Viet Nam/come on fathers don't hesitate
send your sons off before it's too late/and you can be the first ones on your block/to have your boy come home in a box" - Country Joe McDonald.
The more things change, the more they stay the same
Political suicide? If McCain were to only serve one term I don't think he'd be commiting suicide. It would take at least 6 mos to get a draft up and running....then another year for total deployment while pvt contractors built the structures needed to hold & maintain troops...just barely. Hmm...Afghanistan? - - didn't the Soviets do something like that and finally leave minus approx. 60,000 dead soldiers? It's the terrain - you can't fight the typical ground war of Iraq in the mountains of Afghanistan near Pakistan. I'm also concerned that a President Obama might make the same mistake, with or without a draft. Diplomatic efforts with Pakistan are key - right now they can't even control their tribal war lords in that region and the borders are totally porous with almost no roads crossing the region. Air power? - Bush is doing that right now and lots of missles being fired are killing a great number of civilians and not many al caeda or Taliban. No, unless we are ready for at least a quarter of a million troops deployed with a minimum time of 3 or 4 years, and risks of as many or more casualties sustained by the Soviets, we're never going to subdue and dispose of al caeda, with or without bin Laden. If we, the American people are ready for this then fine - - if not, then perhaps we should get into serious questioning with whomever becomes our President.
Bill Kristol, John Podhoretz and all the other radical Zionist want the draft returned so the US can fight other wars on Israel's behalf.
Kristol even proposed bringing back the draft with a special twist. He suggested that US citizens, called up for the draft, could be re-assigned to also serve in the Israeli army. As John McCain would say, "That takes balls my friends!"
This way the neocons sons and daughters wouldn't have to interrupt their education at Harvard and Yale, while the goyas (Gentiles) could fight the wars they dream up.
Sweet!
McCain, if elected, would seek additional conflicts not just in the middle east, but also in Central and South America, his alliances with campaign bundler billionaire Carl Lindler Jr. demonstrates their prior paramilitary operations in Columbia and elsewhere - for profit motives.
I am certain that McCain would have to reinstate the draft, but being the opportunistic egomaniac that he is, he will delay that until after his second term begins, and then will adopt a "to hell with the Republican party credo"
His being a POW makes him an emotionally damaged individual and a liability and danger to the U.S - the North Vietnamese and their Russian and Cuban allies know McCain better than Americans after 5-1/2 years of close, total examination and interrogation. That knowledge is very dangerous.
To whomever asked, "who would show up" regarding a possible draft? They pick up the first hundred or so that don't show up - - they hunt you down and arrest you. You get tried and convicted of draft evasion, and then you go to prison for 5-10 years ...that's how they do it. Everyone in your town, state, region knows it was you - cause your picture and story are splashed across the local papers and tv. People call your home and tell your family that you're a draft dodging piece of scum. If you run you have to go underground - you can't use your social security card, and you have a Selective Service number I.D. Employers, colleges and universities all want to know what your "status" is if you're between a certain age range. The FBI keeps stopping at your house and asking questions of your family and friends...for years. You may temporarily forget the Govt - but they don't forget about you. Were you around during VietNam? We barely had computers then. Thousands of young men ran from the draft during VietNam - some in the country and many out to places like Canada, and many ran for years after it ended. No, if they ever institute another draft they will be full ready to make an example of any person who doesn't respond. Btw, as of 1/09, all U.S. citizens will need a passport to go into and come out of Canada - - Homeland Security will work in many ways you see.
Nobody wants a draft, least of all the military. The US military spent most of the 1970s dealing with the disaster the unpopular Vietnam era draft had on their effectiveness and nobody seriously wants to see it again. Regardless of the political unpopularity of a draft it produces poor soldiers and hurts the overall effectiveness of the service. Note that every time we have been to war in the past 20 years, including Gulf War 1, anti-war groups have used the threat of a draft to rally around. Yet there has never been any effort to on the part of the military to increase training capacity to handle the numbers of recruits that a draft would create and seemingly no interest from the military in accepting unwilling draftees. Maybe the next time you post about a mythical 'draft' you can back it up with some evidence? Right now it seems the thrust of your article is that a draft is simply the only way for McCain to achieve his goals if elected. A more likely scenario is that he wouldn't have that option. Congress would have to authorize a draft before McCain (as President) could sign it. I don't see a bill passing both houses at any time to allow this, do you?
The immediate response to an assertion like that is that it's not at all likely. As some said, "political suicide." But the times are changing and so is the culture. Fifteen years ago people laughed in my face and said don't bother defending abortion rights because it would be political suicide for lawmakers to reverse Roe vs Wade. Yet today, the right wing supreme court has the power to do just that, and we see state laws making abortion illegal while no lawmaker, even Democrats, have stopped it.
It's clear you don't have to create or eliminate a prominant law in one fatal swoop in order to change reality. You just create an environment where the outcome you want seems increasingly likely, even necessary, and eventually acceptable by the public. It's obvious war is increasingly acceptable. In the middle east alone, We're at war in 2 countries, and have raided 2 others, and no one bats an eye. The National Guard is stretched too thin, with trips away lasting 2 years and sometimes jobs lost when they return. It's clear we have back-door drafted the Guard into the regular army. With war seen as patriotic, manly, even fun like a video game, and recruiters at concerts and high schools, I don't seen any opposition at all, or any reason why in the near future we wouldn't implement a program like Israel has, where all young men are required to serve for a specific time. I see that on the horizon.
Dr. Cole is right. Another angle to this is McCain starting wars on so many fronts that wil beg the question of draft without his having to reinstitute it, in this senerio I agree also with Dr. Jason.(Dr. Jason said he wont reinstitute draft). Ultimately draft will be a neccesity any which way.
Unfortunately someone has to pay for Johnny Mac's time as a POW. The evil powers of the world will be forced to display their subservience to the Alpha Male, John McCain. I don't doubt for one minute he would work to reinstate the draft if necessary, which under a president who thinks he "knows how to wins wars" will surely be needed. If his strategy for winning wars is as schizophrenic as his campaign strategy, then we all have much to fear.
This does look like fearmongering. After all, it's Obama who's talked about a surge in Afghanistan - which shows that he's misunderstood the 'success' of the surge in Iraq as much as McCain. It's Obama who first recommended attacking across the border in Pakistan. Obama has also made hawkish and untrue statements about Syria (that the illegal, unprovoked Israeli attack on a site which the IAEA has cnfirmed had nothing to do with a nyuclear programme, was necessary). So present evidence suggests Obama may need more soldiers than McCain.
Plus, I think a draft for Americans would be a great idea. It would make them think a little harder.
To speak to Dr. Tondro's suggestion, I think that we have already seen that McCain is hardly thinking of the country, the future, or anything but winning the presidency. His selection for Vice President was as cynical a choice as he could have made, and basically said "I don't care what happens to America after I'm dead."
A man who has no compunctions about the possibility of leaving the country in the hands of Sarah Palin in these challenging times is a man whose concern for his party's future--let alone that of his country--is, at best, questionable.
Finally... after listening to McCain's rallies and hearing his call for a larger military and more Marines someone in the press writes about what I have been feeling. With falling enlistment in all branches of the service after the start of the Iraq war we could be faced with a draft if McCain is elected. Maybe it is a part of his economic recovery plan to reduce unemployment. It is too late in the game to make any difference in the election voting, but it would be nice to hear each candidate's position on the subject.
A draft? Of course there will be a draft if McCain wins.
Combine multiple wars with an economic meltdown (it will get worse, far worse with McCain), possibly a catastrophic energy crisis (the problems of oil supply did not go away; the demand went down with the economy, but supply problems will eventually return), and the prospect of the nuclear-armed Pakistani government falling to the Pashtuns and what a future we have to look forward to if McCain wins.
Those of you who suggest McCain would not institute a draft because of political implications are FOOLS. McCain has been recklessly making every political mistake under the sun. It is only the ABJECT FAILURE of an utterly ignorant American electorate and the irresponsible media which continually abrogates its duty to inform the public that has sustained John McCain. If the US media had taken its responsibility seriously, it would have discredited the McCain campaign the moment he won the Republican nomination. The only White House job for which Mr. 894 of 899 is qualified is parking valet.
If the American people were to fully comprehended the problems ahead and the very real and direct implications on their lives of a McCain victory, Obama would be ahead in the polls 96 - 4, with McCain's support limited to only the greediest of the rich and would-be members of the Ku Klux Klan. Hopefully, even the ignorant and the hateful will be saved by an Obama victory tomorrow.
Unapologetically, and may I note that I am a proud registered Republican,
http://cnbcsucks.wordpress.com
My name is Bob Olsen from Chesterfield County Virginia. The draft has already started. Two years ago the Bush administration began to reconstitute the draft board system. Over the years there were many unfilled vacancies. I applied and was given a seat on the local board. I wanted to be sure that if the draft ever was reinstituted that it would be fairly applied, unlike in the past.
We have had classes on how to operate the system, and have had yearly refreshers since. From the classes, it is my understanding that it will take an act of congress to reinstitute the draft. In its present form there will be no draft for women. There will also be no student deferments. If you are drafted, by lottery, you will be able to finish that semester before you must report. If you are a senior, you will be allowed to finish that year, then you must report. The only deferments will be for ministry students and conscious objectors, who will both have to come before the local board, of which I am a member.
I agree with Mr. Cole, that this is exactly where McCain is heading. It is obvious. And given the gravity of military necessity, all of congress would go along with it. They didn't have the backbone to stand up to an obviously fake war with fake WMDs, they are not going to stand up to real military situations that America has instigated. That old red herring, Support Our Troops, giving them the resources they need, would surly be invoked.
To those who keep saying that we really do need a draft, as if that will increase deterrence and responsibility, you are flat out wrong. We always send our people to slaughter and to be slaughtered. There will be no call for caution or pacifism, only duty and service. The last thing our very violent society needs is wholesale military indoctrination.
should have had a draft from the get go of bush"s war. without it, it's been troop abuse.
As a person who has been serving in the Army for almost a decade I can assure you that a contingent of draftees could not be incorporated into the current military structure. I doubt you will find anyone, officers or NCOs of any rank, currently serving the Armed Forces, who think drafting is a good idea or a feasible one. As you said yourself, retention of current service members has not been an issue. With the financial crisis, you can be sure that a lot of young people will be looking at the military as a secure source of income. Above all, as others have commented, it would be political suicide for the GOP.
I have thought this for a long time. Just to put some numbers to it:
1. Iran the 18th largest country in the world, 5x the physical size of Iraq. 80 million people as compared to 18 million people.
2. Now, after 6 years, AND with the agreement of the current government, it takes 250,000 people a month to keep Iraq under control. 140,000 troops and 100,000-110,000 contractors! Basically, contractors working for 180,000 to up to a million dollars a year for some specialties have taken the place of a draft.
That's what redistributing the wealth is about under the Bush and McCain military plan. My father served in WWII and those soldiers drove trucks that were under a lot more fire than they're enduring in Iraq, thousands died every month--and they served because they were drafted and had signed up on their own after the country was attacked, but it certainly didn't take $180,000 a year for them to do their job.
Fast forward to 2008. I have two roommates--one who wants to go to Kuwait for $180,000/year and the excitement, another who took the $20,000 signup, the college--and says openly that he hopes he's never deployed. There are many who serve for love of country--but money and college is bringing them too.
So, let's look at Iran--it's certainly going to engage Russia and Venzuela. Take a look at the war exercises that have been going on in the Carribean in the last month--they're anticipating an attack by Bush or McCain. And just this last month, Russia said that they're going to be training Cuban troops. And our "so-called best party to protect you" leaders President Bush and Senator McCain have not said a word about it.
And in my opinion, it's because they know it will take a draft to deal with a war like that. (Of course, if Russia's involved, we're not talking about a invasion-type war--a war between our two countries will only be accomplished through nuclear weapons).
I think a draft of sorts is what this country needs! Like many of our European friends, we should have a great wealth of new energy flood our forces every year. Once out of high school, everyone should be entered into some form of service for two years and through that they should earn credits for further education. With this we could fill the ranks of our federal government with interns, our health care system and charitable organizations, and even our military with a new vibrant force, that could leave the ranks in two years to further their degrees or fall in line with the organization they have chosen.
Government service for everyone, call it a draft or a make work program, it makes good sense for our country now!
Let's see... Obama is on record as saying he wants to grow the military by 92,000. Where are those forces going to come from? From the "national service" (i.e., involuntary servitude) program both he and McCain advocate? If Obama makes Rahm Emanuel Chief of Staff, puts in Dennis Ross at NSC, and if Bibi becomes Israeli PM, where do we get the troops for the inevitable war with Iran? If Obama surrounds himself with Russophobes like Richard Holbrooke, where will he find the troops for the inevitable conflict with Russia?
Just some uncomfortable questions for Obamabots to ponder. Have a nice day.
I have been waiting for someone to pick up on this for discussion. Some time ago, a few months ago, I think, a woman at a McCain rally asked him about reinstating the draft, saying that our military would suffer without it. He told the woman, "I'm in agreement with you," clearly indicating that he would favor a draft. The Obama people never picked up on this--what a lost opportunity for them.
I'm a Marine Corps officer, and a veteran of two combat tours. I'm resigned to the fact that the public at large knows next to nothing about military life. However, I'm still bothered when nationally prominant pundents show similar lack of depth under the guise of crediability.
It is wrong-headed to think of the U.S. Army as, "Ten combat divisions." The metric to consider is how many Brigade Combat Teams can be fielded. These task organized units include infantry, armor, logistics and aviation elements. The BCT is the war fighting unit of the Army, not the division.
People that do not follow CLOSELY what the candidates may not know ..on the campaign trail speaking in New Mexico a lady asked the question "If you follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of hell, how will you do it since we do not have enough troops to cover the wars that we are in, will you reinstate the draft"? MCCAIN ANSWERED YOU ARE 100% RIGHT WE WILL HAVE TO AND I WILL!!!! i PERSONALLY DO NOT WANT MY 3 GRANDCHILDREN COMING HOME TO ME IN BODY BAGS AND I IMMEDIATELY WENT TO WORK FOR OBAMA WITH AN URGENCY THAT I DIDN'T KNOW I WAS CAPABLE.
blue photon said...
Aren’t you engaging in some fear-mongering here? Even if the Republicans regain Congress, which seems highly unlikely, do you really believe the Republican party would commit political suicide by bringing back the draft?
Normally I'd agree...it would be political suicide to bring back the draft but the republican party DID pick McCain to represent them and HE picked Palin as a running mate so I think irrational decisions are a GIVEN with the GOP. They would bring back the draft in a snap.
I'm a life long republican
VOTING OBAMA!!!
McCain has stated himself that he would re-institute the draft "if necessary". All the folks claiming political expedience would prevent him from doing so are all wet. Dr. Cole is 100% accurate. I have wondered myself why the media does not mention this at all.
I spread the word to all the young adults I meet at work, (many), and I know I have changed at least a few votes.
sent to a West Point guy who had just lost his kid in the Iraq disaster...
bummer....
getting sucked up in a real Bush mess that was all foretold by Scowcroft and others before the mess began...
the problem is...unlike the previous disaster, this mess is being fought by a mercenary army...so basically no one really truly gives a rip, unless you get caught up in the Bush mess....
Abby Hoffman and Country Joe McDonald will not be risen from grave without a draft...
I am a former, 1LT, II Corp, MACV, Central Highlands, RVN, Bronze Star...
"if the United States is faced with a REAL threat as in WWII, whats wrong with reinstating the Draft?"
Count the number of times the United States has used military violence against another country.
Now count the number of times the United States has used military violence against another country for defense against a real threat.
Get it?
And if there were a draft it would be much, much easier for the United States to use military violence to further an agenda of empire in the absence of any threat at all.
When was the last time the United States used its military for actual defense?
Having a 15 year old son this has been issue #1 for me. By using stop losses we have already started the draft. Enlistment goes down in times of war, how manny wars do we have now two, three? We have to decide weather to continue fighting multiple wars or start a draft. I think when mcCain says he knows how to win this war, a draft has to be part of any winning plan.
Due to the state of the economy that we are currently facing it could be said that McCain would not have to reenstate the draft. If the number of jobs drops there is an increase likelyhood that young americans will be enlisting in the armed forces.
The draft is going to be a serious question for Obama too. We need a draft as a deterrent to other would be aggressors.
I'm a parent of a Naval Academy Midshipman so my dog's already in the fight.
You should know that the local draft boards are already fully staffed and funded. Early last year, various parents clubs of the five military academies were solicited for volunteers to do the initial classifications of inductees (1A, 4F etc)at the local level in the event that the draft resumes.
Unlike Vietnam, there aren't many of the deferments that allowed anybody who had the resources to avoid being called (student, congressman's son etc).
We were told that there are NO current plans to reinstate the draft but if more troops are necessary, we are ready to go.
Thelonious:
I certainly agree that McCain has done foolish and reckless things. No argument there. I suppose my belief in his incompetence is greater than my belief in his desire to alienate every American age 18-26, their siblings, parents, and children. A judgment call, I grant you, and hopefully one we will never need to verify.
Anonymous 2:04:
I'm happy to say that I, at least, live on a progressive liberal Earth which prizes learning and civil discourse. Whether or not you choose to live there also is something only you can decide.
mandatory military service wouldn't be such a bad thing if everyone had to give 2 or 3 years like they do in germany or isreal.
I realize that not really on-topic, but still.
No military senior officer ever wants to see a draft again except in the case of the enemy landing on our shores. McCain has absolutely no interest in a draft and does not need one. Charley Rangel started the draft rumor and it quickly died of its own futility except on the fringes of our society.
I was in McCain's class in the Naval Academy when he was, as most of us, filled with all the life one would expect at that age. While not a close friend in the following years I have kept up with him. At heart he is fiercely protective of the United States, its honor and its citizens.
Finally, it does not require the draft to accomplish those things that he wishes to do.
Short of an all out invasion, as I said, we will not see a draft again. Volunteers train better, learn more quickly, are there because they want to be. Draftees are a drag on the system, are not usually unit-supportive and they get out as soon as possible (who can blame them, they don't want to be there.)
We won't have to worry about it after tomorrow.
Enjoy.
Dear Prof. Cole,
Always great to read your enlightened opinions. I started following your work as I was doing my PhD in A2 some years ago (Math). I now work for the ETH in Zürich, but I always keep an eye on what you've got to write. Keep on keeping academic recluses like me informed !
Y.B.
Tens of thousends of draft age young people are indentured with student loans, mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt. Every type of loan has a clause that allows the debt holder to call in the note at any time. With the Federal Government's increasing control of the finance sector and the growing need for a larger military, we can be sure that this new debt holder will come to add require military service as debt obligation payment. As the unemployment numbers rise and debt defaults grow, most will have no choice but to accept a draft. As the military enlarged to prepare for WW2, most young men welcomed the draft as a chance to have a regular meal ans some money to send home. How much more will it be so now, with the added burden of debt? The borrower is the slave of the lender.
At 12:46 AM "Anonymous" referred to "the poor and the lower class" who are dying in Iraq. That is not a fair description (I'm not a vet, but I pay attention). It's mostly those who signed up for the National Guard, who come from all walks of life and place a high value on patriotic duty and service. I may not agree with them, but I respect them, and their sacrifice (although I wish it were not "in my name").
I absolutely agree with comments made above that a draft would degrade military efficacy more than it would help. Regarding stop loss and IRR, I'll believe it when I see it. Stop loss is a minor inconvenience and something that's necessary re: unit cohesion prior to deployment. I myself was stop lossed, and don't think it's that big a deal. WRT IRR, HRC (Human Resources Command, Army) only gets about a 40% return/success rate on former officers/enlisted that are IRR'd. The folks who don't show aren't pursued, so it's hard to imagine a workable draft anytime in the near future. FWIW, if this former ABN RGR's high school age brother should ever wind up in the cross hairs of a draft, especially to serve in an unjust or stupid conflict, I'd gladly apply whatever relevant skill sets the Army has provided me with against the members of the appropriate draft board. I wouldn't lose too much sleep over whether or not draftees will pay if a draft is ever instituted for a war of choice - I'd be more worried about whoever is stupid enough to hold a membership on a draft board.
I have an idea the economic chickens now coming home may preclude further military expansionism.
imho, More likely that the Americans will more and more rely on remote-controlled WarTech, remaining Over Here while waging "war" Over There. Special Ops teams will more and more lead "foreign fighters" in-country. Any slack in personnel can be readily filled by employing those immigrants desiring to become U.S. citizens by fulfilling a Military Service requirement : "doing those jobs that Americans, themselves do not wish to do."
The real danger of a McCain Administration "Global War On Terror Surge," imho ~ is not the implementation of Selective Service ~ rather, it would be the degradation of the U.S. Military as we know it today via massive investment in automation as well as massive (domestic) dis-investment in sub-prime personnel out-sourcing.
Great discussion and a possible outcome of the election. But I should point out that if the Dem is elected as well, we will have to look at this solution to the wars.
I would like to suggest that a draft would not be the worst thing to come of the election. In fact a draft will allow us to remove Haliburton from the picture. Put the draftees in the mess hall, and keep the enthusiasm to those who were going to join anyway.
I would also suggest that a draft is not just military. It should also include USAID operations (at least the non-covert ops) like setting up schools, med centers, and water treatment centers. These civil occupations arguably are more important to winning a war than killing all that we see.
A draft of some sort is coming (be it a CCC type program for the US, or a Peace Corps push for overseas, or a straight military draft... or all the above.
- e pluribus unim -
Long time reader, first time poster. As a Canadian I don't really understand the drive for an empire but I do know that sometimes drafts are required to maintain it. I am not so sure that a draft by McCain in the increasingly unlikely event he is elected would happen in the current situation...however, as Neocons have stated, most recently Karl Rove about another terror attack could allow those who support the military industrial complex to bring that to the table. Let's hope not. But with troops in Iraq, Afghanistan out of control (btw, history shows it's not a place to try and occupy) and with military advisors already in Pakistan..well this worries me and with continued Republican administration that worries me even more. Hopefully sanity will prevail in the next election, troops will come home from Iraq and the situation will not escalate in A&P. I know, optimistic but I can hope. Thanks Dr. Cole for pointing out that a scenario could happen which would bring the draft back on the table.
I'd like to note that a draft is actually good for the economy in a case of severe depression. A two-year service program removes about 5 % of the employable male workforce. In practice, the effect is beneficial to the economy as a whole.
For the young people serving, its much more honourable and even more motivating to work in obligatory service than in make-do jobs for the unemployed youth. (It's the words you use, not the actual content of the work that matters.) A national service does not carry a social stigma
Another way to increase the acceptance of draft is to stop voluntary enlistment completely. I come from a country where no one can serve in the military in any rank without having first served as a conscript. Every career sergeant and every general has started off as a conscript private in a normal line unit. They have only stayed in the military after their initial obligatory service.
So, reserving the military academies and the ROTC for former draftees would be a great sign to show the national appreciation of the obligatory service.
An Obama presidency will do the same thing. He'll just call in "Mandatory Service" instead of "Military Conscription".
They are both cut from the same cloth. It's just the delivery and packaging that's different.
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