Iran did not Lose the Provincial Elections
It is being alleged by US pundits that the outcome of the provincial elections in Iraq, as far as it is known, indicates a defeat for the religious parties and for Iran.
This allegation is not true. In the Shiite provinces, the coalition of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Islamic Mission Party (Da'wa) will continue to rule. Both parties are close to Tehran, and leaders of both spent time in exile in Iran. Da'wa appears to have become more popular than ISCI. But Da'wa was founded in the late 1950s to work for an Islamic republic in Iraq, and current leader Nuri al-Maliki has excellent relations with the Iranian leadership.
Da'wa is more "lay" in the composition of its leadership, which is made up of lawyers, physicians and other white collar types. ISCI has more clerics at the top, though it also comprises technocrats such as VP Adil Abdul Mahdi. But Da'wa will need Iranian economic and development aid just as much as previous governments did.
In the Sunni provinces there appears to have been a turn to more secular parties, but neither the Sunni fundamentalists nor the Arab nationalists have much use for Iran to begin with.
The Kurdish leadership is also quite close to Iran. They will have elections in May.
End/ (Not Continued)
posted by Juan Cole @ 2/05/2009 01:02:00 AM
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7 Comments:
Professor Cole,
As always, you are the sane voice of reason. What is troubling and disappointing is the total lack of understanding shown towards Iran. Unfortunately, as I see it, with the Iranian Elections coming up, there won't be much of a movement until we know. I realize that the President does not wield power, but I hope that Khatami prevails and knocks some sense into Khameini's thick skull to tone things down and start coming down to earth.
It is for sure that Iraq and Iran are joined at the hip now. The U.S. can sit idly by and watch.
Both Da'wa and ISCI are also close to the US. But the Sadrists are anti-American in a big way. ISCI has antagonized both Da'wa and the Sadrists who have recently settled their differences and are ready to work together.
ISCI and the Kurds (who are also pro-US) have said that they are open for coalitions, but both will almost certainly be shunned to be left out in the cold (except in Kurdistan and Kirkuk where the elections didn't take place.)
So a truer picture is that the USA has lost far more than Iran did.
The refusal of most US pundits to take the Islamic Republic of Iran seriously, by which I mean a multifaceted society with interlocking political, social, and economic interests, leads directly to just such a false conclusion.
Of course, the Da'wa has and will continue to have close ties to Tehran. Mutual interests of both Iran and the Shiite provinces dictate this. Likewise, the Kurdish areas.
It's long past time to set aside the cartoon image of the Islamic Republic and to analyze its behavior as a state, rather than simply as an iron-bound "theocracy."
Maliki's block win has much to do with his raising of the nationalist banner and his opposition of the sectarian fedral south promoted by Al-Hakeem. Inspite of his leadership of one fragment of Dawa party,he is considered by many shiites as being far more independent from Iranian influence than Alhakeem.
Iraqi nationalist
I am puzzled by the comment "The Kurdish leadership is also quite close to Iran". While the scale of Kurdish/Turkish tensions over treatment of Kurdish minorities likely dwarfs similar concerns in Iran, I thought there was an organized Kurdish resistance in Iran (resistance or separatist movement)finding haven in Iraqi Kurdistan. I am thinking of PJAK.
Any word on how Sadr's lists did? I can't find any details in news reports.
One is much more secular in its membership than the other. This is not the outcome Iran hoped for. So as politics is scored, this IS a loss for Iran.
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