Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Bomb Kills 25 in Afghanistan;
15 British, 2 US Troops killed in past Week;
Blood-Drenched Warlords Return to Gov't with Impunity

I can tell by various web metrics that you guys are not interested in the Afghanistan story. You should be and I am going to parse it today anyway. It is one of the advantages of being non-profit that I write what I want and you can read it or not as you like. But really, you should be following this war.

AP reports that: "A truck filled with explosives that police believe may have been destined for Kabul blew up on a highway Thursday, killing 25 people — more than half of them children walking to school."

Having suffered 8 troops killed in Afghanistan in 24 hours, Britain has now seen more troop deaths for the British army in that country than in Iraq. 15 British troops have been killed in the past 9 days, and UK PM Gordon Brown warned that British troops were in for a difficult summer there.

British commanders maintain that part of the problem is a lack of helicopter gunships.

My guess is that if these sorts of losses mount, Brown will come under enormous pressure from the public and from his own back benchers to break with President Obama and withdraw from Afghanistan. There is even some question as to whether the UK can afford to maintain the sort of military required for such large-scale foreign adventures. Canada has announced that it will withdraw its troops from that country by 2012. US news organizations will have little noted the helicopter crash that killed 2 Canadian troops last Monday.

It is bad news that President Hamid Karzai has brought the old Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostam back into government, especially since he was implicated in a massacre of Taliban prisoners of war in 2001. Note that Karzai is bringing back another warlord with a lot of blood on his hands, Muhammad Fahim, as his vice president. Karzai, in fact, appears to want to turn his government into warlord central. What does that say about Karzai?

2 US troops were killed Wednesday by a roadside bomb, the Pentagon has announced. More roadside bombs have been being detonated each month this spring and summer in Afghanistan than in Iraq. In fact, in June 3 times more roadside bombs were set off than in Iraq.

The Pentagon says that the US has lost 657 men in Afghanistan, two thirds of them to hostile fire. This number is an under-estimate of the US sacrifice, since it does not include the wounded, including the severely wounded.

US commanders are now thinking Afghanistan may need 270,000 soldiers to keep internal peace, not just the 134,000 that NATO is now committed to training. The goal might be 400,000 police and army altogether. Not only would the training and standing up of such a massive force cost rather more than the some $7.5 bn. a year the Obama administration had budgeted for Afghanistan, it is hard to see how the Afghan government could afford such a huge security force. It would likely cost several billion dollars a year to maintain, and Afghanistan's whole annual budget is only a little over a billion dollars a year (the gross domestic product is only $9 bn., and a third of that is probably from poppies made into heroin.) These plans doom Afghanistan to be a welfare queen in the world community for decades, and they also risk throwing the country into more violence, not less, since its fractious tribespeople have never dealt well with having a strong central government (Afghanistan is not like Iraq, folks).

Much of what Michael Schwartz warns about with regard to long-term neocolonialism in Iraq could be applied to Afghanistan, as well.

The Pakistani military's campaign against the Taliban in the Swat region has produced over a million displaced persons, who are often having difficulty collecting the promised government aid:



Aljazeera English reports on the sometimes fatal dangers awaiting journalists attempting to report the battle against the Taliban on the Pakistan side.



End/ (Not Continued)

36 Comments:

At 6:19 AM, Blogger Mr said...

Has the Anglo-American community decided that there is no more place in this world for any land beyond our political control? It does seem that they inevitably become pirate havens of one kind or another -- Afghanistan, NWFP, Somalia, and our own white-supremacists redoubts in states like Idaho & Montana.

I dont deny the right of anyone to chose to live in an older, tribal society, with wholly unique and, to our enforcers, invisible bonds of clan and land. But we (Americans) did kill all of our own tribal peoples before exploiting the wealth of the Western US.

Arent the "Allies" trying to finish off Geronimo once again? If the Apache had had access to a flow of capital, such as poppies or a petro-state sponsor, would the US Army have had such an easy time of it? Compare the skull of Skull and Bones Society to Saddams pistol. GWB makes a fetish object of both, both representing the triumph of the Modern over the Primitive.

A bit all over the map, i admit, but i havent been ignoring the Afghan war -- it just makes me very depressed.

 
At 7:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Professor Cole, here are two observations about your introductory remarks in today's column:
I doubt "I write what I want"; you are not that free, you can loose your job at the university if you irritate the POWER too much. It has been obvious that you maintain a rather polite (or political) writing stile. Like most of us you do not go for martyrdom.
Second, these are not "wars", they are "large-scale foreign adventures", as you correctly label them, further below in you piece. Probably the POWER does not demand that you call them "wars."

 
At 8:07 AM, Anonymous Behnam said...

Quote: "These plans doom Afghanistan to be a welfare queen in the world community for decades, and they also risk throwing the country into more violence, not less, since its fractious tribespeople have never dealt well with having a strong central government (Afghanistan is not like Iraq, folks)."

So, unless something changes fundamentally about Afghanistan's economy, which is unlikely anytime soon, it will always have a weak state. This makes a lot of sense.

The question arises how to deal with the rebels. Would you argue that, therefore, the solution would involve as much co-option as suppression?

And is it your sense that the U.S. has short-sightedly elevated war over nation building? Or does the U.S. currently know what it's doing?

 
At 8:18 AM, Anonymous chris said...

I'm an anti-war Brit, who is dubious about what winning in Afghanistan would actually look like. However, I don't see any support for withdrawal even in the current circumstances, where we're losing troops in ever-increasing numbers. I'd argue that for the first time since Bush's ill-considered and vainglorious invasion, there is now at least some prospect of progress.

We must be clear that a liberal western-style democracy is out of the question here (same goes for Iraq). The most we can hope for is an alliance of corrupt politicians and warlords, who will be able to maintain a semblance of order.

Of course, it would have been preferable to keep the Taliban (and Saddam) in power and use US soft power and superior culture to erode Islamic fundamentalism over time. However, the neocon strategy was all about cashing in on US military power, completely forgetting about how the Soviet Union was defeated - creating overwhelming dissatisfaction and desire for change in the subject populations.

 
At 9:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The UK weird PM, and his FM too, say that the the war against the Afghans will make London safer.

Thats right, the Afghans wanted to kill innocent British civilians before they yet again invaded their country. But now, having been invaded and lost men, women and children in huge numbers at the hands of the Brits who also humiliated and tortured them, they are cured from hating the British and love them to bits.

Invading and destroying small and weak countries then installing savage compliant locals is, as we all know, an act of charity.

 
At 9:55 AM, Anonymous Paul Moffett said...

Your site is a daily stop; otherwise, I'd have no idea whatsoever about what's really happening in Afghanistan or Iraq, given that the mainstream media are totally worthless in that regard. So thanks for writing

 
At 10:05 AM, Anonymous Earl Killian said...

Do your web stats count RSS readers?

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger Jay said...

I am going back to read "War is the Health of the State" by Randolph Bourne. Although it is about WWI, this essay seems always up to date.

Apparently "the powers that be" will allow us to finish one war only on the condition that we start another one, stop wrecking one country as long as we go on to wreck another (or two).

I think this suggests that the real object is war itself, irrespective of the causes and goals of any particular war.

 
At 11:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for your work on this. I wish we saw more focus on Afghanistan in the news media.

 
At 11:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree all should follow news of this war, but I am so against US being there and see no way to influence our government's policy that frustration and a sense of inevitability seeps in. I read your news every day and tears flow.

 
At 11:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't count me in on that web metric, Juan. I read this site every day, and consider myself fascinated by Afghanistan. I can't believe we have yet to read a history book on that place. Foreign occupiers have never brought the country to heel. I don't think this little adventure of ours will be any different.

- Nait

 
At 12:11 PM, Anonymous tulsatime said...

Keep up the posting on A-stan, otherwise the gov't. picture will dominate. I can see where folks shy back from the coverage, there are so many econ stories to follow as the looting intensifies.

I hate using the af-pak shorthand, but that fire in yet another cradle of civilization is so very sad. Why the US and Brit. have to be hip deep in all this tragedy is beyond me. We just seem to accelerate the global chaos.

 
At 12:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Know that I am interested in and appalled by Obama's war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. I read every word you write on the matters.

 
At 1:12 PM, Blogger Samuel said...

Afghanistan will inevitably see a big increase in the enemy tactics developed and honed in Iraq - bombings of all types and indirect fire from populated areas.

ISAF soldiers are in for a bad time. Myself, I think they need to stay - although some of the turmoil is tribal and local, there are enough anti-Western ideologues there so that absent Western troops there is every probability of Afghanistan (Pakistan?) reverting to Al Qaeda central.

What I would like to see from Jaun and other experts is a policy path out of this stalemate/quagmire. I suspect that involves a lot of aid to the locals and a slow buildup of sane, honest government. It will be a long time...

 
At 1:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let me ask what is probably a naive question...but hey, I don't know the answer. You said It would likely cost several billion dollars a year to maintain, and Afghanistan's whole annual budget is only a little over a billion dollars a year (the gross domestic product is only $9 bn., and a third of that is probably from poppies made into heroin.)

Can't we then just sort of "buy" the country, i.e., supply people's income so that they don't turn to poppies and in-fighting? What about the poppies...a commenter on Gretchen Peter's website proposed just buying all the heroin. Even if this is naive, is it any worse than a military occupation?

 
At 1:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you are quite right to draw attention to the developing horror show in Afghanistan. I personally feel that both Iraq and Afghanistan will end up in the loss column. What remains to be determined is how long either will be drawn out, how much they will ultimately cost, and how many more western soldiers and civilian nationals will die in these feckless enterprises. Let us not lose sight of the fact that both of these campaigns were started by Emperor Bush II and remain his responsibility in perpetuity. I just hope that the current US regime does not get drawn into another similarly fruitless enterprise in Iran. When all is said and done, few humans want to see their countries occupied by trigger-happy foreigners. I certainly don't. Sue for terms for an orderly withdrawal now; Karzai can go back to Detroit and his convenience store or whatever he was doing before. It is all so stupid and pointless.

 
At 2:02 PM, Blogger George said...

"My guess is that if these sorts of losses mount, Brown will come under enormous pressure from the public and from his own back benchers to break with President Obama and withdraw from Afghanistan."

Because of 8 deaths? The only thing that will stop this is if there is a "sterling crisis" or if the Taliban figure out how to permanently disrupt supplies into Afghanistan, or if they figure out how to attack the aircraft. Short of that 8 deaths here and there mean little. If PM Brown cared that much about the small number of deaths he would buy better equipment. The deaths may force him to buy better vehicles or something.

Evidently UK may not buy into Trident, and amazingly enough F-35. So something is going on.

 
At 2:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan Cole,

True, Afghanistan is given far less media attention than its middle eastern neighbors, which is probably due to historically being more of a battle ground for other nations than one itself. The place might not even be in the today's news if 2001's Taliban had simply handed over ben Laden and his Afghan al Qaida camps. Yet it does seem that Afghanistan's current problems go much deeper, well into Helmand's prosperous province of poppy fields and Pakistan's migrant Pashtun tribes of fanatic Taliban. These powerful drug and land lords consider Afghanistan their proper turf, its people their peasants. I doubt this is a battle for NATO, British or American soldiers. Once well trained and equipped, Afghans are more than apt to fight their own wars.

James Sexton

 
At 3:38 PM, Anonymous Bic said...

Thanks for taking the time to write a very informative post, even if the site's metrics ARE down.

They're down at my humble little blog too. Lots of folks on vacation, I think.

 
At 5:11 PM, Blogger MonsieurGonzo said...

ref : “British commanders maintain that part of [their] problem is a lack of helicopter gunships. interesting comment by their commanders, in that Operation Khanjar or Strike of the Sword is "the largest airlift offensive since the Vietnam War." As we try in vain to envision this vertical insertion of ~4,000 assault troops, the WHUP WHUP WHUP signature sound of all these troop-filled helicopters, the MedEvacs, the constant, night -and- daytime air convoys of matériel : all of this being necessary because the ridiculous MRAP ground troop transports ~ developed to survive the RPG's and sucker-punch IED infected streets of urbanized IRAQ ~ are so laden with heavy armor that they cannot manage to waddle over dirt roads or on the strategic, enemy-controlled Afghan Ring Road system. Then there is the relentless heat, "hot as fire" ~ the swarming nuisance of flys and fleas that cling to your lips and eyelashes, and that relentless, powder-fine desert dust that "gets into everything." We can only try to imagine this, their remote, surreal scene. They might as well be fighting in some Sci-Fi outer space fantasy ~ in some friendless, alien Hell where men must eat and sleep and awaken to, to fight every day just to survive: "victory" gets reduced quite quickly to just being there, in this forgotten battle space, tomorrow... Much less to fight an enemy largely seen only at great distances through telescopic sights, or escape that frustration of a never-present enemy and their ever-present IEDs. What was The Mission? we wonder, Over Here. And do they wonder, Over There as their fathers did, ~40 years ago, in some soggy, rotten jungle: does The Real World still exist?

 
At 6:22 PM, Blogger Ann said...

fyi the main reason I've been reading less often is that I'm trying so hard to keep up with what's going on in Iran.

I'm diverted, yes, but not to following Michael Jackson's demise, but rather to keeping alive contacts in Iran and trying to figure out what is going on, and will go on . . . and at the same time holding down my day job.

So, yes, I'm checking in with you less frequently, but still regularly.

Thanks for the re-alert, though.

 
At 6:54 PM, Blogger Ann said...

minor followup, sat through the videos and learned some things and was reminded of some things.

Viz Iran: I think the timing in Honduras & Urumqi was not coincidental (Iran and MJ providing cover), but in the case of the Swat area, I wonder whether the opposite is the case: the open break in the Iranian regime between those who are merely corrupt, those who are militantly religious, those who really believed in democracy, etc., is exposed not only to Iran, but also to people in places like the Northwest Territories?

I don't know. I've never felt like I've understood Pakistan very well (a little more exposure to Swat Pathans culture actually than to most, but not enough to matter).

But I wonder what you think the impact of what's going on in Iran has on other places that are trying to bridge the Islamist/republican gap?

Probably nothing much yet, because we're all waiting to see how it really shakes out. I'm starting to think the outcome is decided, but whether it takes 20 months or 20 years is not.

 
At 7:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another Insurgency Gains in Pakistan

Although not on the same scale as the Taliban insurgency in the northwest, the conflict in Baluchistan is steadily gaining ground. Politicians and analysts warn that it presents a distracting second front for the authorities, drawing off resources, like helicopters, that the USA provided Pakistan to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Baluch nationalists and some Pakistani politicians say the Baluch conflict holds the potential to break the country apart — Baluchistan makes up a third of Pakistan’s territory — unless the government urgently deals with years of pent up grievances and stays the hand of the military and security services.

 
At 7:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Criticism of Afghan War On the Rise In Britain

Just as President Obama’s plan to nearly double American troop strength in Afghanistan gets into high gear, Britain’s involvement in the war has come under the fiercest criticism yet at home as a result of a steep increase in British casualties, including the deaths of 15 soldiers in the past 10 days.

The latest losses are the heaviest British forces have suffered in any comparable period since the 1982 Falklands war. With the Defense Ministry’s announcement of eight soldiers’ deaths on Friday, Britain’s toll in Afghanistan is now 184 killed, five more than its total losses in Iraq, where Britain’s combat commitment ended this spring.

Partly because of Britain’s 19th-century history of catastrophic military ventures in Afghanistan, when it sought to secure the outer defenses of British imperial rule in India, the government faces an uphill task in rallying public opinion to the current conflict.

 
At 7:24 PM, Blogger sherm said...

NATO and the US have installed a huge military violence machine in Afghanistan. Its not a nation building or freedom machine. This machine has killed and wounded thousands of very poor Afghanis, a significant portion of which are non-combatants. But it seems that the West is much more concerned with the comparatively minor number of casualties suffered by Western forces. Like it's just not fair that we should lose troops we sent in mass to Afghanistan to kill and maim all Taliban, and incidentally, but unavoidably, cause many many non-combatant casualties.

One might suppose that if we could do all the violence without suffering any casualties, then all is well and our conscience is clear. Pakistan might offer a good example. There, bloodless drones do the violence, and no British, Canadian, or US forces suffer so much as a cut finger. Any widespread hand ringing outside of Pakistan?(I suppose that drone controllers in Nevada are subject to the same mishaps that affect the Nevada population at large, but no Purple Hearts.)

Prior to 9/11 there was little interest in Taliban rule. Suppression of Woman's right seems to have been the most visible issue. (See video linked on July 8 IC to learn of "progress" on that front.) We've all read about the CHENEY/bush top priority prior to 9/11 - invading Iraq. Now the safety of the Free World hangs on Taliban eradication.

Speaking of eradication, maybe our Commander-in-Chief might want to take a look at the Taliban playbook. From 2000 to 2001 the Taliban reduced opium production from 3276 tons to 185 tons. Granted that was sort of a blip in production history, but certainly one our military violence machine couldn't dream of duplicating. Of course we displaced ("defeated" has now proved inaccurate)the Taliban in late 2001 so we'll never know if they could have kept up these remarkable results.

The military-industrial complex needs a bogyman for job security. The Taliban fills the bill nicely. But I think Obama's job security depends on leaving Afghanistan to the people who live there.

 
At 7:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep parsing. I drop in once or twice a day, and find your site invaluable.

cicely

 
At 7:42 PM, Blogger Juan Cole said...

I have the same abilities in Persian, Dari, Urdu. Found in Bukhara could converse perfectly well with Tajiks (knowledge of Urdu phonetics & vocabulary helps.)

 
At 7:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Must be a glitch in the metric counter. I'm currently reading "Afghanistan's Untold Story" by Fitzgerald & Gould. These journalists spent 30 years there. Since I have a feeling that this debacle will be worst than the last one; I better bone-up on my history. Dr. Cole is always a much appreciated source of information and insight. Don't stop!

 
At 7:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wouldn't worry about the UK being forced to withdraw - in these harsh financial times and with a vastly greater force present the US could really struggle to maintain this operation... Britain has lost 10s of thousands of soldiers over the years, as a tough fighting nation 8 deaths will do nothing other than force through greater equipment upgrades which are definitely needed, not weaken resolve!

 
At 11:19 PM, Blogger EL said...

"What does that say about Karzai?" Oh, that he's inordinately fond of staying alive?

 
At 12:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

We shouldn't even be in Afghanistan. The war on terror is a cruel hoax..like the war on poverty or war on drugs. And a lot of evidence suggests that 9/11 was an inside job, a false flag terror attack. The fact is the military industrial complex wanted these wars, and Obama is continuing the agenda.

 
At 3:55 AM, Blogger eurofrank said...

Dear Professor Cole

Fera Not. While away from home I read your email feed rather than hit the site.

The Brit Generals's comment about helicopters which you report as Helicopeter gunships is revealing. The actual shortage is of transport helicopters.

Helicopters provide fast insertion of troops and high mobility and as such are a force multiplier.

However much like the "Love the smell of Napalm in the morning" scene in Apocalyse Now the heliborne troops don't hold ground.

The Russians had the advantage in Afghanistan until CIA supplied Stinger.

Heliborne assault will become much more bloody if somebody gets away from a Pakistani or Sudanese warehouse with a few hundred of these.
Pakistani MANPADS

 
At 10:06 AM, Anonymous MillyBloom said...

We need to continue to question the reason for this amoral war. Pepe Escobar of the Asia Times posits that the wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan are part of an attempt at regional control of oil. He calls the complex machinations of all regional and US powers the wars for control of "piplinestan". Do you have any insights into this?

 
At 11:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is your reaction to this story:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090712/wl_nm/us_afghanistan_police_1

"As British troops moved into the village newly freed from Taliban control, they heard one message from the anxious locals: for God's sake do not bring back the Afghan police.

U.S. and British troops have launched a campaign to seize control of Helmand province, about half of which was in Taliban hands, and restore Afghan government institutions.

But as they advance, they are learning uncomfortable facts about their local allies: villagers say the government's police force was so brutal and corrupt that they welcomed the Taliban as liberators..."

 
At 2:02 PM, Blogger Helena Cobban said...

Even if the metrics on your posts about Afghanistan are down that doesn't mean your readers are uninterested. It is possible that you aren't necessarily their go-to blogger on Afghanistan, as you likely are on Iraq.

I think you should give some good shout-outs to bloggers like J. Foust at Registan who's been covering all of Central Asia very effectively for a long time now. Also, the Afghanistan Conflict Monitor.

No need for others of us to replicate what those faithful sources are already doing-- though of course we always need to supplement and interact with them.

 
At 9:01 PM, Anonymous Tony said...

Thanks for all your explanations - the following article in the Sydney Morning Herald is very sobering

http://www.smh.com.au/world/how-a-folk-hero-died-in-the-fog-of-war-20090712-dhfp.html?page=-1

 

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