Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Rafsanjani to Lead Friday Prayers;
Rezai Calls for Political Compromise;
Montazeri Implies Ahmadinejad's Presidency Illegitimate

Former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will deliver a Friday prayers address in Tehran this week. A behind the scenes backer of the opposition candidate for president Mir Hosain Mousavi, Rafsanjani has kept a low profile since his candidate was declared a loser in the June 12 election. Mousavi and the other reformist candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, say they will attend these Friday prayers ceremonies, whereas they had boycotted those held in recent weeks.

Reformists are said to be planning to flood the prayer hall, which could lead to a confrontation with hard liners. Reformists are continuing to practice nonviolent noncooperation in Iran.

Hard liner and former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, Mohsen Rezai, called Monday for compromise among the presidential contenders and their supporters to forestall a collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He pointed out that Iran has some hard bargaining to do with the international community in the coming year [regarding its nuclear enrichment program], and faces a possible strike by Israel, and that only by remaining united can Iranians avoid a catastrophe. English report here.

Some of the wire services have seemed to me to interpret his statement as more liberal than it is. It is true that he addressed his criticisms as much to Ahmadinejad as to opposition leaders Mir Hosain Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, and that he appeared to complain about the heavy-handed tactics used by the authorities against the protesters. He said that the authorities must view the discontents manifest after the election in a clear-sighted manner and without illusions. But he also warned of a sinister conspiracy to push the Iranian regime to collapse. In the end did little more than call on the Ahmadinejad government and the opposition leaders to deal with and negotiate a settlement with one another that would allow them to view one another as siblings and safeguard the unity of Iran, thus protecting the nation from outside hostile forces.

Rezai is departing from the party line of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which maintains that no compromise is needed, and which permits violent disruption of peaceful protests. But he isn't departing very far from it.

The blogosphere is also making far to much of a fatwa or religious ruling by Grand Ayatollah Hosain Ali Montazeri in answer to the questions of reformist theologian Mohsen Kadivar. ( English text here.

It is being alleged that Montazeri is saying that the Iranian regime is illegitimate, which he is not. He is implying that if Ahmadinejad stole the election by foul means, then his presidency is illegitimate. That is just a self-evident conclusion.

Also, it is being alleged that Montazeri is foremost among the grand ayatollahs, which he is not. On the Iranian scene he has been effectively marginalized by the regime. It is well known that he is on the outs with Khamenei, who put him under house arrest for five years in response to his questioning of the Khomeinist doctrine that the clerics must rule. His fatwa is therefore to be expected and will not cause any surprise or make any special waves in Iran. (It may result in a renewal of his house arrest).

For Iran and the rise of a new Middle Class, including activist women see this interview with Yale's Abbas Amanat, among the foremost Iran experts in the US.

End/ (Not Continued)

15 Comments:

At 5:22 AM, Blogger Naj said...

In relation to these Fatwas you have to know one thing:

You are not obliged to follow the Fatwa of all Mojtahed's; only those whom you have chosen to follow.

So, if someone is not a follower of Montazeri, he/she is not obliged to follow his decree.

Just technical knowledge your readers need to have :)

 
At 6:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The clergies are no longer in control. For all intent and purposes, the real government within the goverment of Velayte-Faghih is the IRGC who no longer needs Khamenie to legitimize their underground economic empire since he himself has been discredited.


Rafsanjani is just buying time to figure out of way out of this mess without being assassinated or brought up to charges for corruption and treason.

In the long run, both Khamenie and Rafsanjani are as good as dead if the IRGC gets his way.

http://jomhouri.com/a/04int/006984.php

 
At 12:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juan Cole,

Thanks for the good news. I only hope nobody gets hurt this Friday.

James Sexton

 
At 12:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.democracynow.org/2009/7/14/headlines#7

July 14, 2009

Honduran Coup Regime Hires US Lobbyists with Clinton Ties
By Amy Goodman

Meanwhile, new details are being revealed about American lobbyists that have been hired to support the coup. The New York Times reports the coup government has hired a public relations specialist with ties to former President Bill Clinton. * The specialist, Bennet Ratcliff, was part of the delegation that met in Costa Rica last Thursday. According to the New York Times, the delegation, including the installed Honduran president Roberto Micheletti, “rarely made a move without consulting” Ratcliff. An official close to the talks said Ratcliff wrote or approved every proposal that was submitted at the meeting. Meanwhile, the Honduran branch of an influential Latin American business group has hired Lanny Davis, the former White House special counsel to President Clinton. Davis is leading a lobbying effort to muster up support for the coup on Capitol Hill.

* http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/13/world/americas/13honduras.html

 
At 12:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Montazeri actually is, with regard to scholarship, one of the foremost grand ayatullahs. He is also widely followed in Iran. The fact that he has been marginalized politically is a separate matter. I am surprised that you, Prof. Cole, of all people would not know this.

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone please explain to me why Mousavi is a "reformist"???

As Alaister Crooke wrote in the LA TImes: "It was Ahmadinejad who campaigned against the wealth and self-interest of some of the clerical elite. Mousavi was more closely allied to those interests."

 
At 2:52 PM, Anonymous Locke said...

Mr. Cole, with all due respect, have you forgotten that this fatwa is not the first statement Montazeri has made since the election?

You write:
"It is being alleged that Montazeri is saying that the Iranian regime is illegitimate, which he is not. He is implying that if Ahmadinejad stole the election by foul means, then his presidency is illegitimate. That is just a self-evident conclusion."

However, in his first statement after the election, Montazeri precisely asserted that Ahmadinejad stole the election by foul means. (... no sane mind could believe the given results, etc). So these two statements taken together do allege that the regime is illegitimate, exactly what you're claiming they don't.

 
At 12:42 AM, Anonymous Bhnm said...

Prof. Cole,

Rezaie, in a statement posted in www.tabnak.ir, severely criticized the crack down on the protesters.

He is not a liberal; but he's a democrat, and he takes the civil rights of citizens seriously.

Why do you call him a "hardliner"?

"Hardliner" because he was the Commander of the Revolutionary Guards? Many reformists used to occupy top positions in Iran's intelligence and military organizations.

Rezaie is not a reformist, though. He's a centrist; and he's arguably close to Rafsanjani. In recent years, he has sounded like the Economics Ph.D. that he is, not like a military man.

Bhnm

 
At 4:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The folks back home don't have many options & have to play the hand thats dealt to them wisely but they must use them wisely and ride the reformist ride to their own ultimate goal as a short term tactic and never trust or share their messgae or accept their unconditional leadership .

Definition of the Reformists; The original Ommatie God fathers,Ideologues, instigators, organisers of 79 Ommatie revolution who were robbed of their khallifate(Bani Abbass) over Iran by their mechanical dumber jehadist cousins or the so called "conservatives" in post-Khomeini era .

The reformist goals & agenda ; To protect ,insure & extend the rule of Qadesiyeh regime and legacy of their beloved Imam Rouhollah Khomeini at any cost & by any means while at the same time fighting to get rid of the hijackers of their so called "Nezameh Moghadass" represented by conservatives ,late comer jihadists and their Imam Khamenei,and Mesbah Yazdi.

Reformists are former henchmen,torturing, Taghieh practicing, kniving, lying, double dealing camp who for the last 20 yrs power have been busy amassing unbelievable illegitimate fortunes inside/outside Iran, infiltrated foreign media & academic centres, built propaganda sites and lobbied usefull idiots among diaspora/foreigners via it's foreign for the faithfull day that they are called upon to accomplish the two goals above. Among those faithfull days was the days post-selection that the machine did a wonderful job of painting a grassrooted uprising against IRI as some sort of a green movement for the cause of IRI to reform itself and transfer power to these Ommatie fat cats.

Mind you, the correlation between a Reformist & a Hezbollahi/hardliners is the same as a graduated thief and a dumb car jacker which in essence are the same specie but with a different approach on their prey. As the Qadesiyeh regime evolved so did class after class of former henchmen who got fatter,wealthier and wiser to discover that in order to save their beloved regime,their own security and to protect their own ill gained wealth they need to cosmeticaly do minor adjustments on the face of the beast, hence the Reformist propaganda machine was born .

The people of Iran have moved on beyond their corrupt leaders of all stripes. One of the slogans being chanted was :

??? ???? ??? ????? ??? ?? ???? ????? ???

Mir Hossein is only an Excuse,

The Whole regime is our target!

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/07/iran-analyst-says-the-people-have-left-their-leaders-behind.html

 
At 10:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

MUST READ:

Sexual Politics in Modern Iran (Paperback)
by Janet Afary
Janet Afary (Author)


http://www.amazon.com/Sexual-Politics-Modern-Janet-Afary/dp/0521727081/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1247667358&sr=1-1

 
At 12:29 PM, Blogger Matoko Kusanagi said...

While Raj is correct, Sayeed Montazeri is part of an accumulating critical mass, which includes other Grand Ayatollahs like the titular head of all the Shi'ia, Sayeed Ali al-Sistani.
al-Islam is a consensus religion.
The tension is between the junta's fears for the survival of the Islamic Republic, which is what the velayat e fiqh was designed to ensure, and the Green Wave which argues collectively that the regime has broken islamic law.
And islamic law is still a factor..otherwise the junta would simply imprison or assassinate Mousavi and Montazeri. They are seyyed...assassination would make martyrs of them, and the population would rise up. Rafsanjani is not a seyyed, but he has a vast network of power. Still his relatives were seized for a time. That has not happened to montazeri's or mousavi's relatives that we know of.
The junta attempts to paint Montazeri as mad and Mousavi as a western agitator.

I still will bet on the Green Wave. The same methods that overthrew the tyrant Shah will eventually overthrow the tyrant Khamenei.

 
At 12:44 PM, Blogger Pedestrian said...

Just to clarify: Mousavi attending the Friday prayers is NOT confirmed by Ghalamnews yet (his main website). Even Tehran's daily, Etemad only quotes Mousavi's Facebook page.

Mousavi has said repeatedly in the past that nothing from his camp is official unless it appears on his website.

 
At 1:39 PM, Blogger Pedestrian said...

Just wanted to update: Mousavi's website just wrote that he'll be there on Friday.

 
At 5:36 AM, Anonymous Akhbar Azadi said...

I cannot believe your statement that Montazeri did not say the current regime is illegitimate. This from the Tehran Bureau translation of his latest fatwas:
"A political system based on force, oppression, changing people’s votes, killing, closure [of organs of civil society], arresting [people] and using Stalinist and medieval torture, creating repression, censorship of newspapers, interruption of the means of mass communications, jailing the enlightened and the elite of society for false reasons, and forcing them to make false confessions in jail, is condemned and illegitimate."
Doesn't get much clearer than than that IMHO. Perhaps you missed the full set of fatwas?
http://tehranbureau.com/grand-ayatollah-montazeris-fatwa/

 
At 12:02 PM, Anonymous Adam said...

....I usually think Prof. Cole’s analysis on all things Shi’i is superior (in fact in grad school I relied on many of his texts to inform me on my theses), but this time I believe his reading is too narrow.

What’s being missed here is the means not the ends of this fatwa. Prof. Cole is looking inside the box at the instrumental nature of political fatwas that inspire movements, thinking more about what it will do for the people, or its direct impact on the regime. What he is missing is how the discussion will affect the religious establishment in Qom (or even what it could signal to the hawza in Najaf)....

See the rest of my argument at http://commera.wordpress.com

 

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