Informed Comment

Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute

Sunday, August 09, 2009

New Iraqi Shiite Coalition coming together

Ahead of January's parliamentary elections, Al-Zaman reports in Arabic that Jalal al-Din al-Saghir, a leader of the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq (ISCI) announced that the United Iraqi Alliance will announce five coalition partners next week. They include the Sadr Movement of Muqtada al-Sadr, the Islah Party of former Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari, the Badr Organization (the political wing of the Badr Corps paramilitary attached to ISCI), section of the Da`wa Party- Iraq Organization, and ISCI itself. These are all fundamentalist Shiite parties. ISCI continues to reject the demand of the Islamic Da`wa Party of current prime minister Nuri al-Maliki for more seats in parliament within the UIA coalition, and for a lock on the prime ministership.

The significance of the report is that the Shiite religious parties won the two parliamentary elections of 2005 because they banded together into the United Iraqi Alliance. If Da`wa of al-Maliki runs separately, and some other Shiite parties do as well, they could split the religious Shiite vote and create an opening for secular or other ethno-sectarian parties.

Aljazeera English reports that the Sunni fighters of the Awakening Councils haven't been paid for months now that the Shiite government of Nuri al-Maliki has taken over responsibility for them. The government never intended to integrate more that 17 percent of them into the state security forces, and now it seems the percentage may be even less. One problem with demobilizing the Awakening Councils is that the fighters have many enemies, and if they disarm they are at extra risk for reprisals.



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2 Comments:

At 3:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

al-Saghir generally talks garbage. The Sadrists have repeatedly said that they are not interested in the old UIA coalition. Maliki's party have also said the same.

Both have been talking to the Hakimists in view of setting up a non-secterian coalition. Hakim has suggested renaming it and sticking the word Nationalist somewhere in the title but that has been rejected as cosmetic.

They also demanded that a political programme is published, but the Hakimists said it is unnecessary because the revamped UIA is an institution and not a political coalition! Therefore, there is no need for a manifesto nor for naming a PM candidate. The function of this institution is to "educate the public" through a large media machinery, and ... to instruct the government on how to run the country.

 
At 1:23 PM, Anonymous Andrew Turvey said...

"New Iraqi Shiite Coalition coming together"

Fascinating! There's been talk of splits within the UIA for a while - particularly after they ran separately in the recent provincial elections. (http://tinyurl.com/bx8k7u) Lots of questions emerge from this:

1) If the SIIC/Dawa split persists to the election, will SIIC keep its current partners? Sadrists were previously violently opposed to Abdul Mahdi. If UIA are clever, I guess they could nominate Jaafari again for PM - which both Sadrists and SIIC could live with. Who will independents like Shahristani go with?

2) Who would win in a contest between this UIA rump and Maliki's State of Law coalition?

Provincial election results would indicate State of Law. Particularly if Maliki gets people like al-Hadba or even Allawi on board.

3) If the UIA did split, would they still come top? The 2005 election (http://tinyurl.com/t8ztc) had UIA way ahead - 128 vs 53 for Kurds, 44 for Accordance Front and 25 for Allawi's INL. Kurds will lose about 40% to the change opposition based on the recent Kurdistan election (http://tinyurl.com/kl8c8o) - plus more from the boosted Sunni Arab turnout, taking them down to about 30 seats. Accordance is riven with splits so will probably lose seats. Although Allawi is likely to improve, will he really get 60+ seats? Unlikely, I guess.

Would be very interested to hear your views on this.

 

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