Afghanistan Election Run-Off, Italian Scandal, Lahore Attacks on Eve of Obama Decision

Four pieces of news from what Washington now calls AfPak raised questions about the stability of Central and South Asia on Thursday and Friday morning. Given the energy resources in Central Asia and the emergence of India as a regional superpower, the destabilization of this region and continued American military involvement with it has momentous implications for geopolitics in the coming decades.

The Pakistani Taliban upped the stakes in their life or death struggle with the Pakistani state by hitting not only their traditional targets, such as Kohat in the northwest, but striking at the heart of the state’s security apparatus in Lahore, the capital of Punjab Province. There is a sense in which the Pakistani army’s struggle against the Taliban is increasingly an ethnic war between radical Muslim Pashtuns and more traditionalist or secular Punjabis. (Punjabis are 55% of the population and dominate the army; Pashtuns are more like 12% of the population and disproportionately rural and poor).

President Obama is now said to have completed his policy review of Afghanistan and now to be moving toward making a decision about whether he will pursue a wide-ranging counter-insurgency strategy that implies substantial investment in state-building (as recommended by Gen. Stanley McChrystal and apparently by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton), or whether he will adopt the much more modest counter-terrorism strategy proposed by Vice President Joe Biden.

It now seems increasingly likely that there will be a run-off in the Afghanistan presidential contest between incumbent Hamid Karzai and his chief rival Abdullah Abdullah. As fraudulent ballots have been tossed out, Karzai’s margin of victory has apparently fallen below the 50% threshold that would have allowed him to avoid a run-off. Since, however, Abdullah Abdullah’s support largely comes from the Tajik (Dari Persian-speaking Sunnis) ethnic group, and Karzai’s strongest support comes from anti-Taliban Pashtuns, there are fears that the run-off might produce increased ethnic tensions and even violence. On the other hand, had Karzai been declared the victor on the basis of clearly fraudulent ballots, it would have fatally undermined the legitimacy of his government.

Meanwhile, NATO is being roiled by reports that Italy bribed the Taliban in its area of Afghanistan (Sarobi) to remain quiet, but did not inform France of the arrangement when it took over, thus setting French troops up for ambushes when the payments were discontinued. Bad blood among NATO allies is bad news for Obama.

The impact on Pakistan of the Taliban resurgence was visible on Thursday, as guerrillas attacked security centers in the eastern city of Lahore, far from the Pashtun areas. Ten attackers in their late teens hit 3 separate targets, killing 17 persons and spreading fear throughout Lahore. Because of the city’s proximity to the Indian border, the attacks also threw a scare into External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna. Xinhua also reports on Indian apprehensions of the Tehrik-i Taliban Pakistan.

Altogether, Taliban attacks in various cities left dozens dead on Thursday. Pakistanis are nervous about the deteriorating security situation.

Aljazeera English has video:

Dawn has raw video:

Aljazeera English on how President Obama’s decision on what to do about Afghanistan will have a general impact on the region— Pakistan in particular. (I would also add that there is some potential for destabilizing Tajikistan and other areas of Central Asia, as the US and NATO increasingly use them for resupply, thus making them targets for the anti-government guerrillas.

The recent Frontline report on the “Return of the Taliban” seemed to me an eloquent argument against the likelihood that Gen. McChrystal’s counter-insurgency strategy can succeed in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan. One thing the report neglects is kinship. It depicts the Taliban as outsiders, but likely they were the cousins of the villagers with whom US troops were trying to make friends. If so, no wonder no shopkeepers opened businesses in the Marines’ bazaar. (For the FCC: IC carried an ad for this program via blogads for one week).

AFP reports that even officials in Karzai’s circle are now acknowledging the likelihood of a run-off election. Peter Galbraith, who as a UN official played an important role in forcing the issue, also seems reassured that there will now be a second round of voting. The allegation is that the gray diplomats of the UN in Afghanistan were initially so afraid of ethnic violence that they had been ready to acquiesce in Karzai’s ballot fraud and just declare him the president. Galbraith courageously blew the whistle on this approach. Ironically, his role in Iraq as an advocate of Kurdish secessionism has now come under question because of his investments in Kurdistan petroleum.

Jake Tapper at ABC News had argued that if Karzai refused to accept a run-off, his consequent lack of legitimacy would affect Obama’s decision on strategy.

Aljazeera English reports on Abdullah Abdullah’s own demand for a run-off election, and his conviction that he will win on the second round.

Italy denied on Friday that it had been bribing Taliban to keep quiet, but neglected to tell the French about the deal when it handed the region over to French troops. The allegations were reported by the Times of London. The bad news for President Obama is that such discord among NATO allies makes it even more unlikely that member states will send substantially more troops, as Obama has requested. While Britain will send 500 extra troops, France is declining to increase its contingent.

France24 has video:

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