Voting Turnout Enormous
Voting turnout in Minnesota is so high that it may put in doubt the 1956 record of 83 percent. You have to go back, in other words, to the time of Eisenhower and Stevenson, just after Eisenhower’s heart attack raised questions about his presidency, to find a time when so many Minnesotans insisted on streaming to the polls.
It is the same all over the country. Since Republicans are disproportionately well off and older, and since those demographics are more likely to vote, low turnout favors them. Very high turnout brings out people who don’t always vote, and those people are more likely to be less well off and younger; and they tend to vote Democrat. Last election, 106 million voted. The question is, if 117 million come out, who are the extra 11 million? And all other things being equal, they are likely to be disproportionately Democrats. The turnout is very heavy in Ohio and Florida, big swing states.
Florida has added 800,000 residents since the last election, the majority of them Democrats, so it isn’t even really the same state. High turnout there clearly would involve the new residents coming out, which is bad news for Bush.