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Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire Tracking Poll: Big "Mo-bama" Grabs Dems in Granite State; McCain Regains Lead Over Romney in GOP Battle

Juan Cole 01/07/2008

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Zogby gave permission to reprint the below, just in:

‘ UTICA, New York—Democrat Barack Obamas dramatic post-Iowa momentum has come to full bloom in the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire daily tracking poll, rocketing to a 10-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton and a 20-point over Edwards. In New Hampshires Republican primary race, the survey shows Arizonas John McCain had a very good day at the same time that Massachusettss Mitt Romney lost ground, resulting in a five-point lead for McCain.

Iowas GOP caucus winner Mike Huckabee has fallen into a distant third at 10%, barely ahead of Rudy Giuliani, who enjoyed a slight uptick and rests at 9%.

Democrats NH Tracking

Clinton 1-4/6: 29% 1-2/5: 31%

Obama 1-4/6: 39% 1-2/5: 30% . . .

Pollster John Zogby: This full sample is after Iowa. On the Democratic side, we have clarity and confirmation of what is being felt on the ground in New Hampshire: big momentum for Obama and movement against Clinton. As in the closing days in Iowa, Clinton is slowly losing her support among women (she leads 37% to 33%), Democrats (Obama leads 36% to 32%), and Liberals (Obama leads 34% to 32%). Obama leads among Independents (47% to 22%), men (45% to 21% for Edwards and 18% for Clinton), and 18-29 year olds (47% to 22%). Obama also leads Clinton among all voters under age 65, Moderates (by a 45% to 25% margin), and among voters in union households (40% to 22%). . .

Among Republicans, McCain leads Romney among Independents 43% to 26%, voters over 50, Moderates (50% to 20%), women (36% to 25%), and in the North (45% to 21%, effectively knocking out Paul). It is tied between Romney and McCain with Republicans and men. Romney leads among Conservatives and Very Conservative voters.

Republicans NH Tracking

McCain 1-4/6: 34% 1-2/5: 31%

Romney 1-4/6: 29% 1-2/5: 32% . . .

[Huckabee fell from 12% to 10% over this period, actually losing momentum in NH.]

This is the fourth of five three-day tracking news reports to be released in advance of tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary. . .

The GOP and Democratic three-day rolling tracking surveys were conducted using Zogby International’s live operator call center in Upstate New York. The GOP rolling sample included 834 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Democratic rolling sample included 844 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Both tracking survey samples were taken between Jan. 4-6, 2008.

[Methodology is here.] ‘

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About the Author

Juan Cole is the founder and chief editor of Informed Comment. He is Richard P. Mitchell Professor of History at the University of Michigan He is author of, among many other books, Muhammad: Prophet of Peace amid the Clash of Empires and The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam. Follow him on Twitter at @jricole or the Informed Comment Facebook Page

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