A North-South Global Climate War?

This looks to me like a sort of north-south global war, with the North inflicting profound damage on the South:

Here are carbon dioxide emissions per capita by country, calculated from data at the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC):

and here is the new Maplecroft estimation of the countries most likely to be adversely affected by climate change, as reported by WaPo’s Juliet Eilperin and Agence France Presse (including climate-related disasters, heightened competition for scarcer resources, and consequent security challenges)– shown in dark blue:

Courtesy Maplecroft

It is almost a mirror image, isn’t it? And, ironically, it looks like the North may for a while escape the worst consequences of its carbon profligacy, inflicting them on Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, and parts of Africa instead.

I don’t think Usama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are the last demagogues and terrorists in the global south who will attempt to mobilize hatred of the US and the other developed nations on this basis.

6 Responses

  1. it may soon go into open warfare. climate change is already making itself felt; Pakistan and India have come close to blows in recent years over the fresh water supply gained from Himalayan glaciers.

    as long as it continues, actual conflict is a distinct probability. there are too many people in poverty already; loss of environment, crops and drinking water may possibly bring about conflict between north and south.

    the United States Government, in my opinion, is acting criminally by its continued use of fossil fuels and materials producing carbon dioxide; and i don’t believe it’ll stop till there’s nothing left, or we’re forced out of it.

    here are two publications which might shed some light on possible conflicts brought about by climate change:

    “Affairs of State: The Interagency and National Security”, edited by Dr. Gabriel Marcella

    link to strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil


    “From the New Middle Ages to a New Dark Age: The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy”, authored by Dr. Phil Williams.

    link to strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil

  2. My model for these things (climate, Israel) always includes this question: where are the “Good Germans”? That is, given that there is wide awareness of a (moral, political, blah-blah) problem, and limiting attention to those who DO know (but don’t all literate people know about climate change by now? and about Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the UN report?), what proportion are ignoring the situation and pursuing other goals (where will I get a good cup of coffee? what shall I buy for my next car? how can I act politically to reduce my taxes?) and what proportion are trying, in some way, to ameliorate a bad situation, to act responsibly? And guess which are the “Good Germans”.

  3. The scary thing, speaking as a scientist, is that we really have only the vaguest guess as to who climate change will have the worst impact on. It seems pretty certain it’s going to come, but the models that say it will impact the South more are just not that reliable. Look at the last summer in Russia, for example. Nobody predicted that.

  4. I guess we have chosen not the right politicians. They care mostly about the economy to be more efficient, but don’t care at all what consequences it may have for the environment. There should be more “economic green people” around that would put people and the Nature on the top of everything else…

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