Trabzon, Turkey (Special to Informed Comment; Feature) – The U.S. presidential elections are among the most consequential for the Middle East, second only to elections within the region itself. Donald Trump secured a substantial victory against the current U.S. Vice President, Kamala Harris. While U.S. elections have always held significance for the Middle East, heightened tensions, including the current Israeli war — under the pretext of fighting Hamas or Iranian “proxies” — on Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and other regions, made this election even more critical. The Middle Eastern public was not optimistic about either outcome.
In recent decades, Democrats have been more willing than Republicans to rein Israel in. However, the Biden administration demonstrated no determination to curb Israeli aggression, widely regarded as genocidal. The charge of genocide against Israel was even brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice.
In the region, therefore, ambivalence and hesitation to openly support the Democrats was not an endorsement of Trump but rather a sign of disillusionment with the current administration’s grant of impunity to Israel. For example, US President Biden bear-hugged Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in his visit to Israel to show his support, which Netanyahu and his cabinet took, along with the following unconditional support from Biden, as a green light to commit genocide. Gaining courage from the Biden administration and European governments, Netanyahu’s ministers and officials began to reveal their plan of genocide openly. For instance, one headline read, “Israeli commander vows to flatten ‘entire’ Gaza Strip.” A UN Special Committee found Israeli actions since October 7 in Gaza “consistent with the characteristics of genocide.”
What waits for the Middle East in Trump’s Second Term?
The first test for Trump’s second term in the Middle East will be his response to Israeli aggression. During his campaign, it was reported that he does not want war, neither in Ukraine nor in Gaza. During his campaign, Trump expressed a desire to avoid war, whether in Ukraine or Gaza. Reports indicated that Trump informed Netanyahu he would end the Gaza conflict if elected, even before taking office in January. Following his victory, Trump reportedly called Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, expressing a willingness to end the war.
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Despite his historically pro-Israel stance, there is a tenuous optimism in the Middle East rooted in Trump’s unpredictability. However, this hope has been steadily eroded by the names emerging for his cabinet. Dr. Mehmet Rakipoglu, Assistant Professor at Mardin Artuklu University, commented to the author, “Trump is the most pro-Palestinian member in the cabinet he announced.” This reflects a grim outlook, as his cabinet appointments have been characterized by a strong “Israel First” orientation.
Any optimism among American Muslims and the Middle East began to dim with the cabinet and roles that Trump announced. His appointments were dubbed “Israel First,” among many. Key appointments, such as Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and ambassadors to Israel and the UN, exemplify this pro-Israel tilt. Marco Rubio, nominated as Secretary of State, had criticized Trump’s first term for not providing enough support to Israel, despite significant moves like relocating the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory, and brokering normalization deals between Israel and Arab states.. Rubio also criticized Biden’s policies as insufficient, even though Biden backed Netanyahu’s genocide to the hilt. This Biden appeasement policy was a reason for many Muslims and progressives not to support Biden.
Trump’s nomination of Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host, as Defense Secretary also signals a hawkish stance against Iran, which Hegseth has labeled an “evil regime.” He has always shown his support for Israel and displayed pro-Israeli coverage in his shows and documentaries asking for support for Israel. He considers the conflict biblical and has a fundamentalist view on the issue.
Trump nominated Mike Huckabee as US Ambassador to Israel. Similarly, Mike Huckabee, nominated as U.S. Ambassador to Israel, rejects the existence of Palestine, referring to the West Bank by the ideological names of “Judea and Samaria.” Similarly, Trump nominated Elise Stefanik, a Congress member known for advocating the defunding of UNRWA, as US Ambassador to the United Nations.
Despite these appointments, Trump may manage Middle Eastern crises more effectively than Biden. While he will not adopt a pro-Palestinian approach— which one cannot expect, given U.S. presidential history—Trump could handle the situation in a way that favors Israel without abetting the entire destruction of the Palestinians in Gaza. His unpredictable leadership style could also open doors to negotiations with Middle Eastern powers.
Middle Eastern Diplomacy Under Trump
Trump’s “America First” policies place significant responsibility on Middle Eastern leaders. Trump’s preference for personal diplomacy could provide an opportunity for these leaders to influence his approach. By emphasizing that unconditional U.S. support for Israel could damage bilateral relations, regional powers might prompt Trump to adopt a more balanced stance. Conversely, silence from Middle Eastern leaders could result in a presidency even less favorable to Palestinians than Biden’s.
The stakes are high for Middle Eastern rulers. Continued violence and devastation in the region could provoke large scale domestic unrest, threatening not only regional leaders but also U.S. interests in the area. If widespread dissatisfaction escalates, the U.S. risks losing friendly governments in the region. Prolonged unrest could tarnish America’s global image and jeopardize its strategic influence in the Middle East. Thus, regardless of his cabinet’s pro-Israel leanings, Trump may consider that halting the destruction of the Palestinians aligns with U.S. interests.
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