On Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with US President Donald Trump on the margins of the NATO summit at the Hague. His office issued a statement afterwards: “Welcoming the ceasefire reached between Israel and Iran through the efforts of U.S. President Trump, President Erdoğan expressed his hope for it to be lasting and also emphasized the importance of close dialogue in ending the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza as well as in finding a peaceful solution to the war between Russia and Ukraine.” The 45-minute meeting was a culmination of sorts in Turkish efforts to mediate an end to the Israel-Iran conflict. The efforts were born of a keen understanding that Türkiye’s that its interests were directly affected.
On June 13, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities and military installations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes — called Operation Rising Lion — were intended to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, which Israel considered a direct threat to its existence. The attacks killed several high-ranking Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists.
In retaliation, Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel. Over twelve days, the conflict escalated into a steady exchange of missiles between the two countries. The violence raised fears of a broader regional war and provoked international concern about growing instability across the Middle East.
The conflict between the two countries drew Türkiye into what became a complex regional crisis. Ankara emphasized Iran’s right to self-defense, and supported the resumption of the U.S.-led nuclear talks while urging Israel to halt its military actions.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran, calling them a “clear provocation and a blatant violation of international law.” He accused the Netanyahu government of dragging the region, and the world, toward a catastrophe through its “aggressive, unlawful, and irresponsible” actions.
Concerns About Becoming Israel’s Next Target
As the Iran-Israel conflict escalates, some political leaders and analysts in Türkiye have voiced concerns that their country could be the next target of Israeli aggression.
One of the most prominent figures expressing this view is Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of President Erdoğan. Bahçeli claimed that Israel’s attacks on Iran are part of a broader strategy to “encircle” Anatolia and undermine its goal of becoming a terror-free state.
Bahçeli further claimed that the strikes on Iran is a “message directed at Türkiye,” framing the country as Israel’s “ultimate target.”
Echoing these concerns, President Erdoğan alluded to broader geopolitical ambitions during the 51st Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit on June 21. Warning against a “new Sykes-Picot order” in the Middle East, he declared, “We will not allow the establishment of a new Sykes-Picot order in our region with borders to be drawn in blood,” referring to the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement that divided Ottoman territories and established Iraq and Syria as separate states.
Turkish media helped amplify this narrative by highlighting remarks from Eyal Berkovic, a former Israeli footballer turned media commentator, as evidence of Israeli hostility toward Türkiye. Speaking on Israel’s Channel 13 on June 17, Berkovic said: “In the morning, I received a joke that said: ‘In the quarter-finals, we drew with Hamas and won on penalties, then we beat Iran in the semi-finals, and in the final, the opponent is Türkiye.’”
However, some commentators argue that fears of an Israeli attack on Türkiye are exaggerated. Pointing to Türkiye’s status as a NATO member, pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) MP Cengiz Çandar dismissed the notion as implausible. “Türkiye is a NATO country. How can you even imagine that Israel could attack a NATO member? Such a thing is impossible,” Çandar said.
Meanwhile, critics from the left warn that the government may be using the crisis to advance domestic political goals. Fatih Yaşlı, a columnist for the leftist newspaper Sol, claimed that the phrase “Türkiye will be next after Iran” is being weaponized by pro-government circles to suppress dissent. He argued that national security anxiety is being leveraged to further erode democratic processes and silence opposition voices.
Türkiye’s Proactive Measures
In recent years, Türkiye has become the world’s largest host of refugees primarily due to the Syrian Civil War, which has led to Türkiye hosting over 3.6 million Syrians. Additional influxes of refugees have come from Ukraine, Iraq and Afghanistan. As a result, each new conflict in the region triggers public concern in Türkiye about the potential for another wave of refugees.
On 18 June, Defence Minister Yaşar Güler and high-level military commanders visited the eastern province of Van to inspect security measures along the Iranian border. Veteran Turkish journalist Murat Yetkin described Güler’s visit as Türkiye’s first “concrete step” in response to the unfolding crisis.
A day later, on June 19, the Defence Ministry issued a statement saying: “Following the clashes between Iran and Israel, there has been no increase so far in illegal border crossing attempts along our borders.”
Additionally, Erdoğan’s various statements focused on Türkiye’s growing defense capabilities. On June 16, he stated, “In light of recent developments, we are making production plans to bring our stock of medium- and long-range missiles to a level that ensures deterrence.”
He added, “We will soon reach a defense capacity so strong that no one will even dare to challenge us.”
Pro-government media outlets have also focused heavily on the Steel Dome (Çelik Kubbe) air defense system. These news sites often frame the Steel Dome as a symbol of Türkiye’s growing defense capabilities. However, Steel Dome is still in development and not fully operational.
Support for U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks
Türkiye has expressed support for diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iran-Israel conflict, particularly in relation to Iran’s nuclear program. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described Israel’s attacks on Iran as a deliberate attempt to sabotage the nuclear negotiations, suggesting Israel had no interest in resolving the issue peacefully.
On June 14 and 15, Erdoğan held two phone calls with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which he reiterated Türkiye’s support for U.S.-led nuclear negotiations as the only viable solution to the conflict. He also expressed Türkiye’s readiness to assist in diplomatic efforts.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan echoed this stance, stating: “The advancement of the process initiated by U.S. President Mr. Trump regarding nuclear negotiations is the only way to resolve the conflict caused by the nuclear dispute.”
Additionally, Erdoğan spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 14 and later met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Istanbul on June 22.
“Diplomacy,” Digital, Dream / Dreamland v3, 2025
On June 21, Axios reported that Trump and Erdoğan had quietly attempted to arrange U.S.-Iran talks in Istanbul to de-escalate tensions. However, the plan collapsed after Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly in hiding over fears of assassination, could not be reached to approve the meeting.
According to U.S. officials and a source with direct knowledge, Trump even offered to attend the talks himself if it would help reach a deal.
The Iran-Israel conflict grew more complex after U.S. strikes on Iran on June 22. Unlike several other regional states, Türkiye refrained from condemning the U.S. attack. Erdogan’s meeting yesterday with Trump likely helped cement the American president’s determination to force an end to the fighting, including putting pressure on Netanyahu, as the fragile ceasefire largely held.
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