As Summer Temperatures Soar, Iran’s Water Crisis Worsens

( Globalvoices.org ) – Soaring summer temperatures in Iran and widespread blackouts have pushed the government to shut down public offices in at least 12 provinces and warn of a possible nationwide week-long closure to conserve energy, according to Iran Open Data.

Warnings about drought have echoed for years from Lake Urmia, the Hur-Al-Azim Marshes, Hamun, Anzali Lagoon, Quru Gol, Bakhtegan, and Zarivar. Yet chronic mismanagement has prevented any real solutions.

The water crisis has now reached Iran’s capital. Tehran and Alborz provinces are experiencing the most severe water shortages in their history. As of July 11, 2025, official reports show major drops in dam reserves: Karaj Dam by 58 percent, Lar by 34 percent, Taleghan by 32 percent, and Latyan and Mamloo collectively by 47 percent. Since the beginning of the water year, inflow to these dams has totaled just 22.4 billion cubic meters—a 43 percent decrease from last year.

An apocalyptic scenario

The Ministry of Energy has urged citizens to drastically reduce water usage. Only 46 percent of the country’s dam capacity is currently full, a decrease of 26 percent from the previous year. Citizens are now paying the price for decades of governmental mismanagement—just as they did with last year’s electricity crisis. According to the spokesperson for Iran’s Water Industry, Tehran, Alborz, and parts of Qazvin are under the highest water stress. Consumption in Tehran must drop from 3.7 billion to 2.2 billion cubic meters by 2028.

Experts warn that if consumption is not reduced, Tehran could face an “apocalyptic” scenario akin to the prolonged water cutoffs experienced by the city of Hamedan in 2022. Beyond the drought itself, much of the crisis stems from poor consumption patterns and a lack of ecological infrastructure. A member of Tehran’s city council has noted that the capital’s infrastructure cannot handle population growth and that comparisons to other megacities are misleading. He brings up the importance of consumption reform, greywater recycling, and halting unrestrained urban development.

The head of the council’s Health Commission has stated that, although the municipality has allocated significant funds to water transfer projects from the Taleghan and Lar dams, these efforts are time-consuming and insufficient on their own. Jahangir Parhamat, a natural resources expert, told the outlet Fararu that the country is facing an “intensifying and severe crisis.” He claims Iran is experiencing a drought cycle whose return period could exceed a century.

Statistical analyses show a consistent decline in rainfall, and the past winter saw alarmingly little snow—meaning the mountains were unable to store water to slowly release during the hot season.

Worsening crisis

According to assessments, 2025 marks the beginning of a difficult era for Iran’s water and energy sectors. Average precipitation during the current hydrological year was just 101 mm—37 percent below the long-term average. In Tehran, it has dropped 46 percent. Inflow to national reservoirs has dropped to 9.5 billion cubic meters, 3.5 billion less than last year. Key dams like Karaj and Lar have lost much of their storage capacity. Karaj Dam, with a capacity of 179 million cubic meters, now holds just 11 million—only 7 percent of its capacity. At the same time last year, it held 29 million cubic meters.

Excessive withdrawal from underground aquifers has worsened the crisis of land subsidence. In some urban areas, the ground is sinking by up to 30 cm per year—1.5 times higher than the previous year. Since the 2000s, the government has encouraged drilling deep wells, leading to around 300,000 illegal and 500,000 legal wells. The Ministry of Energy states that groundwater withdrawal should not exceed 48 billion cubic meters per year—yet current rates exceed 54 billion.

Combined with reduced rainfall and snowmelt, weakened rivers, and management failures, evaporation and over-extraction are intensifying the crisis. The spokesperson for the water industry has warned that rationing might be inevitable in summer 2025.

However, rationing itself brings additional problems: fluctuating pressure, sediment intrusion into household networks, and psychological stress. Tehran consumes five times the national average of drinking water. With a population near 20 million—driven by industrial, governmental, and migration-related concentration—basic conservation campaigns and plumbing upgrades are insufficient to meet the scale of the crisis.

No solution in sight

Since the late Pahlavi era, a project known as Iranrud has proposed connecting the Sea of Oman to the Caspian Sea to address water shortages. It resurfaced in the 1990s, with estimated costs as high as USD 14 billion. However, decades later, neither Iranrud nor smaller projects — such as reviving Lake Hamun, redirecting the Zab River, or transferring water from the Caspian or Aras rivers to Lake Urmia — have materialized.

Considering that over 95 percent of Iran’s water use is in agriculture, focusing solely on urban drinking water is futile unless agriculture and industry are comprehensively restructured. Water must be redefined as a national security asset.

File photo of Kalut Shahdad Desert, Iran by Azin Javadzadeh on Unsplash

In the short term, no immediate solution exists to resolve Tehran’s crisis as long as the intertwined crises of water, energy, and electricity persist. Given Iran’s economic struggles, international sanctions, and domestic instability, launching mega-projects like Iranrud or Caspian transfers seems highly improbable. If current policies continue, Tehran may soon become a city governed by strict water rationing—a catastrophe for a metropolis of that size.

With subsidence increasing up to 20 cm in many areas, we are now witnessing visible effects on buildings. Tehran’s forbidden plains are host to over 100,000 wells that continue to extract groundwater, deepening the crisis. As the situation worsens, affluent groups are retreating to the cooler, water-rich northern suburbs. Meanwhile, environmental devastation accelerates under the pressure of unchecked housing development and profiteering.

Migration to Tehran continues, and with the concentration of military, industrial, and governmental facilities, the city’s water “trunk” grows more unsustainable. At this point, there may be no choice but to revive proposals—dating back to the monarchy—for relocating the capital.