By John Strawson, University of East London
(The Conversation) – Now a ceasefire has come into effect in Gaza, Israel’s long-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, faces the dilemma of how to campaign ahead of the next national elections. These elections must be held, at the latest, in one year’s time.
In a meeting at the Knesset in Jerusalem on October 13, both Netanyahu and opposition leader Yair Lapid made speeches that seemed to open the election campaign. Netanyahu chose to cast himself as war victor, while Lapid emphasised the liberal values contained in Israel’s declaration of independence.
Donald Trump also addressed Israeli lawmakers at the Knesset and, in his speech, paid many compliments to Netanyahu. He even directed a request to Israel’s president, Isaac Herzog, to pardon Netanyahu over longstanding fraud and bribery charges – something Herzog has already suggested.
But the US president also issued Netanyahu with a warning that Israel could not fight the world. Netanyahu has received a lesson in big power politics over the past month that will not have been welcomed.
It came after his miscalculation in attacking Qatar on September 9, where Hamas representatives were discussing the possibility of a plan to end the war in Gaza. Netanyahu was called to the White House and made to apologise to the Qatari government.
He was then pressured into signing up to Trump’s 20-point peace plan, which includes a “realistic pathway” to Palestinian self-determination and statehood. This is something Netanyahu has long opposed and puts him in a difficult position with his electoral base, which is vociferously against a Palestinian state.
The question now is can Netanyahu turn Trump’s plan to his advantage and win the next election?
Some commentators, such as Middle Eastern affairs expert Shira Efron, think Netanyahu has not realised that the Gaza deal represents a defeat for his government. Efron says the agreement contradicts what Netanyahu has sold Israelis for two years: the promise of total victory and the destruction of Hamas.
However, I think this underestimates a politician who has made a career out of turning obstacles into opportunities. His first election as Israel’s prime minister in 1996, for example, came despite trailing his rival Shimon Peres by a substantial margin in opinion polls at the start of the election campaign.
He has also learned to build coalitions with figures on the left, like former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, the centre like Benny Gantz and, of course, with the far-right politicians Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.
His speech in the Knesset during Trump’s visit was vintage Netanyahu. He spun the peace deal, which he was forced to sign, into a massive victory for Israel’s war aims in Gaza. Only weeks before he had been saying that Hamas could only be crushed by conquering Gaza City.
It is true that the living hostages have now been freed. But, in deploying 7,000 armed men to control areas in Gaza vacated by Israeli forces, Hamas hardly seems destroyed. Netanyahu has nonetheless convinced himself – and will now try to convince the electorate – that he has led Israel to total victory.
Prospects of success
Opinion polls since the October 7 Hamas attacks in 2023 have not made good reading for Netanyahu. However, despite this disaster taking place on his watch, Netanyahu’s polling has never been disastrous.
Current polls suggest that, if elections were held today, his Likud party would be the biggest single party in the Knesset. However, his ruling coalition would be unlikely to return to power. The same polling gives the Netanyahu bloc 51 seats compared to 55 for the opposition, with the balance held by Arab parties.
The opposition bloc ranges from the right, led by former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, to the dovish Democrats. They are united in opposition to Netanyahu’s style of government and his judicial reforms, but they have not yet found a convincing narrative of what they stand for.
Whereas Netanyahu unites his bloc, the opposition is divided between several strong personalities. The leaders that make up this so-called “change bloc” – Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid and Yair Golan – all think they should be Israel’s next prime minister.
But unlike the last election in 2022, where these parties fought as divided incumbents after a short period in office, they have begun coordinating well in advance of the elections.
The election will be held in the wake of the still palpable trauma after October 7 and exhaustion from two years of war fought on many fronts. Despite this, Israel’s civil society remains healthy.
This has been best exemplified by the Hostages and Missing Family Forum, a body that has not only campaigned publicly for the hostages return but also provided vital services to the families and released hostages. The big question will be the effect of such movements on the way Israelis vote.
File Photo. President Donald Trump hosts a bilateral dinner for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Monday, July 7, 2025, in the Blue Room. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok). Public Domain. Via Picryl.
Much, of course, will also depend on how Trump’s peace plan develops on the ground. If the US and its allies can deploy an international stabilisation force and create a semblance of a governing authority in Gaza to take over from Hamas, then calm may be maintained. This could boost Netanyahu’s reelection chances if he can spin it as a win for Israel.
Looming over the plan is the decommissioning of Hamas – not just guns and rockets but also dismantling its network of tunnels beneath Gaza. This process is unlikely to be smooth. It is possible that Trump’s plan will still allow Netanyahu some more opportunities to demonstrate military prowess ahead of the election. This might help mobilise support for his coalition, particularly among the far right.
Since the start of the war in Gaza, the Israeli prime minister has compared himself to Winston Churchill, Britain’s leader during the second world war. Churchill did indeed win the war, but went on to lose elections in 1945. Netanyahu will be working hard to prove that part of the comparison wrong.
John Strawson, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of East London
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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