( Middle East Monitor ) – The Arab world is standing at a precipice. Climate change is accelerating at twice the global average across the region. Water scarcity threatens to erase up to 14 per cent of GDP by 2050. Illiteracy and failing education systems leave millions unprepared for the AI revolution already reshaping economies elsewhere. Yet, still, Arab leaders siphon billions into Swiss banks, insulating their families while leaving their nations exposed to the coming storm.
This is not a prophecy of decline but rather a description of decline already happening. An investment of up to 4 per cent of GDP per year is made to secure climate resilience and meet targets for reducing emissions, yet corruption ensures these funds never materialize. Productivity in agriculture could decline up to 30 per cent, displacing millions of people and destabilizing food systems.
Climate collapse as destiny
The temperatures in Iraq are rising seven times faster than the global average. In Saudi Arabia, by the 2050s, there will be nearly 20 heat waves annually, each lasting an average of 10 days. Under a high-emissions scenario, Saudi GDP is expected to contract by more than 12 per cent by 2050. Coastal cities from Alexandria to Basra face rising seas, while adaptation projects remain underfunded, delayed, or siphoned off by corrupt procurement.
A one-meter rise in sea levels will affect 3.2 per cent of the population, and 1.49 per cent of GDP. Leaders build vanity projects—towers, islands, and stadiums—that will be swallowed by the very climate they deny.
Illiteracy in the age of AI
The AI revolution is not waiting for the Arab societies to catch up. Western economies embed AI into logistics, healthcare, and education, multiplying productivity. Meanwhile, in the Arab countries, the illiteracy rate stands at about 21 percent, higher than the global average of about 13 per cent. An estimated 26 per cent of females in the Arab countries alone represents the highest illiteracy rate in the world.
Illiteracy is not a mere statistic; in the age of AI, it is a foreclosure on the future. Without foundational skills, regional youth will be locked out of the digital economy, condemned to unemployment or precarious labor. In developing and emerging countries, the number of children and youth without basic foundational literacy skills continues to grow by an estimated 20 per cent per year.
Corruption compounds the tragedy. It raids education budgets, underpays teachers, and leaves schools crumbling while incompetent education ministers are lost, not knowing what to do.
Corruption as the great accelerant
The Arab world is not poor; it is plundered. In 2024, the average corruption score of the Arab States reached an all-time low of 34, way below the global average of 43. Only five Arab countries obtained scores above 50 out of 100: the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia with rates of 68, 59, and 59 per cent, respectively, plus Oman at 55 and Bahrain at 53.
The centralized power of the authoritarian leadership has fostered systemic corruption across government practices. Oil wealth, aid packages, and development loans vanish into offshore accounts. The IMF and World Bank reiterate at every opportunity that climate finance and AI investment need credible governance. Yet, as it happens, that is precisely what Arab elites have yet to put into place with proficiency.
Billions stolen and hidden in Swiss banks could have been invested in desalination plants, AI research centers, or literacy campaigns. Instead, they finance palaces, yachts, and foreign real estate portfolios.
The coming migration wave
About 9 per cent of the population residing in coastal areas in the Arab States region lives at altitudes of 5 meters or less above sea level. The extreme droughts in Iraq have displaced as many as 23,364 families as of March 2024. By 2050, millions may be forced from coastal zones and drought-stricken interiors. Where will they go? Europe, which is already fortifying its borders, will not absorb them. The Gulf states will not welcome climate refugees from their own region. The Arab world risks becoming a zone of permanent displacement.
AI of dependency, not liberation
Without sovereign strategies, the Arab states will consume AI as they consume oil technology: imported, expensive, and controlled by others. Western firms will dominate language models, data governance, and compute infrastructure. Arab societies will be reduced to passive users rather than producers. Innovation will stagnate, dependency deepens, and sovereignty will erode.
The irony is brutal: a region that once gave the world algebra, astronomy, and philosophy risks turning into a digital colony.
A call to shame
Arab leaders need to be confronted with the reality that their corruption is not only immoral but also existential. Every dollar stolen is a desalination plant not built, a literacy program not funded, an AI lab not established. Every billion hidden abroad is one billion denied to the children who will inherit a hotter, harsher, more unstable Arab world.
Photo of Baghdad, January 2025, by Tatiana Mokhova on Unsplash
As Transparency International’s Middle East and North Africa Regional Advisor warned, civil society organizations “are the backbone of social accountability, driving change and shaping the national, regional and global agendas. They must be empowered, not sidelined and silenced”.
The Arab world does not lack resources. It lacks integrity. It does not lack warnings. It lacks will.
Conclusion: The vanishing horizon
A 2°C change in global mean temperature could cause a decline of 10 to 30 per cent in global GDP in 2050, with disproportionate losses falling on the Arab world. On current trends, the region will be poorer, hotter, hungrier, and more dependent than at any time in modern history during the second half of this century.
Its leaders will live in exile, their fortunes secure, while their nations collapse under the weight of climate shocks and technological exclusion. The Arab world’s horizon is disappearing. Unless leaders act now—against corruption, against illiteracy, against climate denial—the region will not simply fall behind. It will fall apart.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor or Informed Comment.
Jasim Al-Azzawi has worked for several media organisations, including MBC, Abu Dhabi TV, and Aljazeera English as a news anchor, program presenter, and Executive Producer. He has covered significant conflicts, interviewed world leaders, and taught media courses.
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