Juan Cole

A reminder to my American readers that Sunday June 21 is Father’s Day. An immodest proposal for those of you yet to do your shopping in this regard: if your father is hard to buy for, and likes history and foreign policy, why not get him a book? Or two? And what better gifts of […]

AP has video of Monday’s enormous rally for Mousavi, which defied a government ban on demonstrations. The USG Open Source Center translates news about the Iranian election and its aftermath from the Iranian press ‘Iran’s Guardian Council Urges Candidates To Wait For ‘Final Result’Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2Monday, June 15, 2009 […]

Nate Silver was provided with an English translation of the official report of provincial election results by Daniel Berman and other graduate students at the U of St. Andrews. I continue to find these figures unlikely. There is very little variation in Ahmadinejad’s numbers across provinces, except in two cases. In past elections the numbers […]

VOA says Mir-Hosain Mousavi, the opposition candidate who says the Iranian election was stolen, held that supposedly forbidden and cancelled rally in Tehran after all. And an estimated 100,000 protesters showed up, thronging the streets. Near an HQ of the paramilitary Basij pro-regime militia, shots rang out, leaving a protester dead and panicking the crowd. […]

UPdate: The rally went ahead anyway. See above. Mir-Hosein Mousavi, the reformist candidate who alleges that Friday’s presidential election was stolen from him, was forced to cancel a planned nation-wide protest on Monday morning. Clashes had again broken out between pro-Mousavi demonstrators and Iranian police and paramilitaries on Sunday. From Italian t.v., Iranian police on […]

Noting my skepticism about the announced outcome of Friday’s presidential elections in Iran, readers have been asking me what I think about this WaPo op-ed by Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty pointing out that a scientifically weighted Project for a Terror Free Tomorrow poll in mid-May found Ahmadinejad beating Mir-Hosain Mousavi by a 2 to […]

Some comentators have suggested that the reason Western reporters were shocked when Ahmadinejad won was that they are based in opulent North Tehran, whereas the farmers and workers of Iran, the majority, are enthusiastic for Ahmadinejad. That is, we fell victim once again to upper middle class reporting and expectations in a working class country […]

Aljazeera.net is reporting that the streets in Iran’s capital, Tehran, were almost deserted Sunday morning. Since it is a weekday in Iran, there should have been heavy traffic, but many people appear to have stayed home from work. Reports from students in Tehran say that the universities and polytechnic institutes have been closed for the […]

Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen 1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, […]