Obama's weak attempt to close Guantanamo was just for the record and a cynical move. He knew it would be voted down so it didn't cost him anything to put it up for a vote. He could appear to be following through on his campaign promise, but he cared nothing about closing the operation. If he ever truly believed it should be closed, which is debatable, once in office he was easily persuaded to keep it open.
Your view of Egypt is too rosy. The military is firmly in control and your ifs are very big ifs. The Brotherhood made a pact with the devil in order to get the presidency but the military made sure to strip the presidency of all power before it would countenance a Brotherhood president. Once the people see they've been duped again, the protests will resume. The Brotherhood will be seen as compromised. There won't be real change until the military is uprooted and disposed of. Is that possible? A lot of blood will have to be spilled but that's what it'll take, a very bloody true revolution. It may not happen because the U.S. wants the military in control. It's the hidden hand. A real revolution could still happen as it did in Iran in 1979. The Egyptians are too enamored of their military still, but they need to see it for what it is. A wholesale change in their thinking is needed before they can change their society, but the military and the perceived order it brings is a very powerful current to contend with.
Mursi made a backroom deal with the military. This is clear because the announcement of the winner was significantly delayed. The Brotherhood may feel they understand the way the game is played after the dissolution of parliament, but Mursi will likely be a figurehead president. All the military's done is delay again what I hope is the eventual overthrow of the generals. The Egyptian people's capacity to be fooled is fathomless.
What I took issue with is the reasonableness of the blog post when there should have ire in his tone about how the generals have just systematically dismantled the new system that was taking shape. It's as if they sat back and watched the new structure being built all the while knowing they would crack down when the time came. When Shafiq wins, it will be status quo ante. The generals will have brilliantly fooled the people. They will have outmaneuvered everyone and the clock will be turned back. The people will see they were duped. They're in shock right now about the dissolution of parliament. They see all too clearly what's happened. It's sad to see this is what came of what they saw as their revolution so Juan's very detached professorial tone is disappointing in light of the terrible injustice perpetrated on the Egyptians. Their will was subverted though it must be said there is no leadership/organization to speak of in that country after the disastrous Mubarak era.
I find your analysis naive. What's happening is nothing less than a nullification of the "revolution." The people were hoodwinked by the military. Egyptians were incredibly naive to think they and the military were one. Mubarak Lite will quickly morph into Mubarak redux. The generals will ensure Mursi doesn't win. This is pretty much a foregone conclusion and the "election" will be a sham. The people need to stage a real revolution and overthrow the generals.
Instead of sending Dempsey to Israel, Obama should be talking to Iran directly to defuse the tension. The Israelis want the U.S. to attack Iran and do the work for them. Obama is feeling pressure to do something about Iran, and he may calculate that taking some sort of action will make him look strong on foreign policy and distract attention from the economy. With the Iraq war over and the Afghanistan war winding down, Iran is the next target. Iran is making it difficult for the U.S. though because they're smart, but U.S. frustration at not being able to bring Iran to heel may reach the tipping point.
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Obama's weak attempt to close Guantanamo was just for the record and a cynical move. He knew it would be voted down so it didn't cost him anything to put it up for a vote. He could appear to be following through on his campaign promise, but he cared nothing about closing the operation. If he ever truly believed it should be closed, which is debatable, once in office he was easily persuaded to keep it open.
Your view of Egypt is too rosy. The military is firmly in control and your ifs are very big ifs. The Brotherhood made a pact with the devil in order to get the presidency but the military made sure to strip the presidency of all power before it would countenance a Brotherhood president. Once the people see they've been duped again, the protests will resume. The Brotherhood will be seen as compromised. There won't be real change until the military is uprooted and disposed of. Is that possible? A lot of blood will have to be spilled but that's what it'll take, a very bloody true revolution. It may not happen because the U.S. wants the military in control. It's the hidden hand. A real revolution could still happen as it did in Iran in 1979. The Egyptians are too enamored of their military still, but they need to see it for what it is. A wholesale change in their thinking is needed before they can change their society, but the military and the perceived order it brings is a very powerful current to contend with.
Mursi made a backroom deal with the military. This is clear because the announcement of the winner was significantly delayed. The Brotherhood may feel they understand the way the game is played after the dissolution of parliament, but Mursi will likely be a figurehead president. All the military's done is delay again what I hope is the eventual overthrow of the generals. The Egyptian people's capacity to be fooled is fathomless.
What I took issue with is the reasonableness of the blog post when there should have ire in his tone about how the generals have just systematically dismantled the new system that was taking shape. It's as if they sat back and watched the new structure being built all the while knowing they would crack down when the time came. When Shafiq wins, it will be status quo ante. The generals will have brilliantly fooled the people. They will have outmaneuvered everyone and the clock will be turned back. The people will see they were duped. They're in shock right now about the dissolution of parliament. They see all too clearly what's happened. It's sad to see this is what came of what they saw as their revolution so Juan's very detached professorial tone is disappointing in light of the terrible injustice perpetrated on the Egyptians. Their will was subverted though it must be said there is no leadership/organization to speak of in that country after the disastrous Mubarak era.
I find your analysis naive. What's happening is nothing less than a nullification of the "revolution." The people were hoodwinked by the military. Egyptians were incredibly naive to think they and the military were one. Mubarak Lite will quickly morph into Mubarak redux. The generals will ensure Mursi doesn't win. This is pretty much a foregone conclusion and the "election" will be a sham. The people need to stage a real revolution and overthrow the generals.
Instead of sending Dempsey to Israel, Obama should be talking to Iran directly to defuse the tension. The Israelis want the U.S. to attack Iran and do the work for them. Obama is feeling pressure to do something about Iran, and he may calculate that taking some sort of action will make him look strong on foreign policy and distract attention from the economy. With the Iraq war over and the Afghanistan war winding down, Iran is the next target. Iran is making it difficult for the U.S. though because they're smart, but U.S. frustration at not being able to bring Iran to heel may reach the tipping point.