38 Dead, including 2 Sadrists Killed by US
US, UK Officials Admit Slide toward Civil War
: Reuters says that 24 persons were killed or reported dead on Thursday. But 2 of the wounded Sadrists later died, and it doesn't seem to know about the 9 bodies dragged from the Tigris or the shootings in Basra, Amara and Mosul. I'd say that is at least 38. The worst incidents:
' BAGHDAD - Ten people were killed and 32 wounded by a bomb hidden in a rubbish pile on the side of the road in the al-Amin district of eastern Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.
* BAGHDAD - U.S. troops opened fire on a convoy carrying supporters of radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr at a checkpoint south of Baghdad, wounding at least 16 people [and killing two Sadrists - JRC], police said. There was no immediate comment from the U.S. military . . .
MUSSAYAB - Three people were killed and 22 wounded on Wednesday night when gunmen attacked a wedding party with hand grenades in Mussayab, 60 km south of Baghdad, police said.
Crowds of Shiites belonging to the Sadr movement were on their way to Baghdad Thursday to stage a demonstration in Baghdad against the Israeli war on Lebanon. Some Sadrists in a mini-van came under fire from US troops near Mahmudiyah, with one or two killed and 16 wounded. The US military says that the Sadrists fired at a US observation tower.
There was an outbreak of candor, deliberate and inadvertent, among UK and US officials on Thursday. In the UK, a dark memo from the outgoing British ambassador in Baghdad to Prime Minister Tony Blair was leaked. William Patey wrote to Whitehall:
' The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy.
"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq – a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror – must remain in doubt. '
Anyone who just follows the daily news actually coming out of Iraq rather than the London and Washington press conferences knows that this way of putting things is actually overly optimistic.
Patey was also concerned lest the Mahdi Army turn into an armed state within a state on the model of Hizbullah in Lebanon. I was told by an American official who had been in Baghdad that Iraqi provincial elections had been postponed because there are indications that Muqtada al-Sadr's movement is growing in popularity in the Shiite south and his lists might sweep to power. So Patey's fear is misplaced. The real prospect is that the Sadrists will be the government of Iraq, not just an armed outsider.
The retired British Foreign Office diplomats generally feel that "Mr Blair has done more damage to British interests in the Middle East than Anthony Eden, who led the UK to disaster in Suez 50 years ago."
General John Abizaid, in a victory for plain talking, told the Senate on Thursday that Iraq was as bad as he had seen it and could easily slip into full-scale sectarian civil war. Abizaid was also the first general to admit that the country was in a guerrilla war. However, it is worth noting that by social science standards, Iraq has been in a civil war for years. What would you call a country where there is an armed insurgency that kills thousands each month?
Donald Rumsfeld in his testimony just dusted off Ayman al-Zawahiri's stock speech about a caliphate from Spain to the Philippines (which is ridiculous) and drew the opposite conclusion from that of Zawahiri-- the US must stay militarily in the Muslim world, otherwise the extremists win.
Uh, Donald, there were no Islamist extremists to speak of in Iraq before you invaded and occupied it. Leave, and maybe the Iraqis will find it easier to go back to a moderate secularism. Stay, and create a sea of beards.
The domino theory was false with regard to Communism. It is sure as hell false with regard to Bin Ladenism.
posted by Juan Cole @ 8/04/2006 12:24:00 AM
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"Even the lowered expectation of President Bush for Iraq – a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror – must remain in doubt. '
When this formulation was first invented I wondered how "... and is an ally in the war on terror" reconciled with "democratic" in a region and a country where the population nearly uniformly does not believe Israel's right to exist outweighs the right of the Palestinian refugees to return and end Israel's Jewish majority.
I have always taken that "ally in the war" when presented as a condition to mean that US required the creation of an Egypt or Jordan-like pro-US authoritarian dictatorship - otherwise it is nearly certain the country could not be an ally of the US in the region.
On the other hand, the United States does not have a particularly bright executive branch these days. It is more than conceivable that they just never thought it through.
I was told by an American official who had been in Baghdad that Iraqi provincial elections had been postponed because there are indications that Muqtada al-Sadr's movement is growing in popularity in the Shiite south and his lists might sweep to power.
Can someone please ask the Americans to stop the spread of democracy in the Middle East?
It looks as if the election was cancelled because while the Sadrists are becoming more popular in the South, they are not popular enough in Washington DC.
Is that what "democracy" has meant all along, only members of the US military and State Department get to vote in Middle East elections?
New Iraq Strategy: Love Children More
If only because the bomb that explodes in a home in Fallujah, the bullet that kills a child in Tikrit, or the tank that crushes a family sedan in Baghdad, -if only because all of these have our name on them as Americans, we are compelled to seek answers from our leaders. Dumbfounded in a land without hope in a war without end, our nation turned its lonely eyes to the Senate Armed Services hearing today for some saving grace.
After three years, 2,500 or more dead and 20,000 or more severely wounded US soldiers, 100,000 or more dead Iraqiis, and over $436 billion dollars, the world wants to know: what's the solution?
Quote:
"...Shiia and Sunni are gonna have to love their children more than they hate each other."-Gen. Peter Pace, Chairman, JCS.
Tears welled in my eyes.
After almost six years of the banal stupidity of the Bush Mafia and the neocon tub-thumpers, I thought I was now immune to such moments of utter despair and dread for the future. Whereas Bush may be explained away as a demagogic aberration vomitted up by the Great American Lardmass in a fit of electoral malfeasance and TV-induced indifference, our military was presumed to be the ultimate expression of a meritocracy. The best and brightest would prevail as a matter of the necessity of the Pentagon's almost sacred mission: the defense and preservation of these United States of America. Instead of men of granite, we come face to face today with the utter banality of two utterly clueless cartoons: Generals Peter Pace, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and John Abizaid, Commander US Central Command.
Before Chariman Senator John Warner (R - Virginia), and the Senate Armed Services Cimmittee, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, General Peter Pace, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and General John Abizaid, Commander US Central Command, continued the baby talk about Iraq and our "War on Terror".
Donald Rumsfeld immediately got down to the business of lowering expectations for real discussion and debate with the cruel casuistry of a war criminal. It was obnoxious to hear him welcome us to asymetric warfare, "the face of the 21st-century", in which after an unlawful war of agression, Abu Ghraib, Camp Gitmo, the official torture and incarceration of 'enemy combatants", he described "one side [which] obeys the laws of war, and the other side uses them against us", where "one side avoids civillian casaulties, the other uses them as shields." With the bombing of Qana and its images of crushed children still fresh in our minds, he had the temerity to claim that whereas "one side avoids civillian casaulties, the other uses them as shields, and then skillfully orchestrates a public outcry when the other side accidentally kills civillians in their midsts", and complained of "one side [being] held to standards of near perfection while the other to none."
General Peter Pace invoked the 9/11 mantra, pointing out the cruel irony that the death toll of US troops in Iraq was now approaching that of 9/11. "We've come a long way" since then, cautioning that we as a country still had a long way to go. He thanked Congress for the $436 billion appropriated so far for the war, and mentioned the "record numbers" of re-enlistments, -proof that the American people are responding to "attacks on our way of life." The purity of his propaganda may have been diluted by the fact that for FY 2005, "the Army closed out one of its most difficult recruiting periods in decades, falling more than 6,600 recruits short. It was the first shortfall since 1999, and the largest in 26 years." http://mediamatters.org/.... For those who may complain of the outrageous waste for little or no apparent progress, he opined that the struggle would "not be easy, quick" or "without sacrifice".
General John Abizaid opened with the WMD card, conjuring the spectre of Hizbollah with Iran-supplied weapons of mass destruction. He conceded that the Mideast had never been so volatile in his experience. He outlined our strategic goals: defeat al-queda, deter Iran, and solve the Israeli-Arab conflict. For Iraq, he again restated the obvious to assure us that Pentagon apparatchiks were not totally divorced from reality: Baghdad must be controlled, the militias disbanded, death squad leaders arrested, and a "national reconcilliation" must procede. No shit. As for "progress", well, ah, say, uhm, well. he thought more Iraqis are for keeping the country together than against. Do you think he'll get the Nobel Peace Prize for that feat?
Senators Carl Levin (D - Michigan), John McCain (R - Arizona), Ben Nelson (D - Nebraska), Mark Dayton (D - Minnesota), John Thune (R - S. Dakota), Ben Nelson (D - Florida) and especially Hillary Rodham Clinton (D - New York) actually performed the functions of their offices, posing substantial questions in challenging the three Pentagon stooges on their disasterously doomed policies. Senators Lyndsey Graham (R - S. Carolina), Susan Collins (R - Maine), Jim Talent (R - Missouri), Saxby Chamblis (R - Georgia) and especially James Inhofe (R - Oklahoma) proved themselves to be exemplars par excellence of our current Congress: simply more Asses on Chairs.
Levin asked Abizaid's if there was any intelligence confirming President Talibani's Cheney-like dismissal of the latest violent throes in Baghdad being nothing more that the "last arrows" in the insurgent "quiver". "No comment." Looking sheepish and demoralized, Abizaid did finally fess up to the obvious when asked to repond to the leak of the British Ambassador to Iraq's report that Iraq is probably headed for a civil war and 10 years of instability. Abizaid provided the day's sound bite with the comment that "sectarian violence is as bad as I have ever seen it in Baghdad", and if not stopped, it was possible that "Iraq would move to a civil war."
John Warner broached the stark reality of the next "turning point" in Iraq: civil war. WIth the mandate of the October 2002 Congressional War Resolution substantially fulfilled, namely the overthrow of Hussein and compliance with the UN resolutions, he commented that Bush would have to come back to Congress for fresh authorization with respect to dealing with a civil war. Warner asked General Pace what was the Pentagon's game plan in such an eventuality. Pace replied that since the civil war was "not a fact", the Pentagon was strictly limited to its current role of providing securitry for the current Iraqi government. His solution for the sectarian violence that rages at a rate of over 100 civillian deaths per day: "Shiia and Sunni are gonna have to love their children more than they hate each other. If they do that and seize the opportunity provide by the international community, ... then this is what we wanted it to be which is success for the Iraqi people".
I am stunned. So it has all come to down to this: lack of love for children. We now sit waiting for the civil war.
Though Abizaid testified that there are presently 275,000 trained Iraqi security personnel, with 4 divisions, 21 brigades, 77 battalions who are presently "in the lead" in Iraq, we send in 3,500 additional cannon fodder to Baghdad to ensure enough targets for Muqtada al-Sadr's raving Shiite mobs as they gather for a huge anti-Israel demonstration this weekend. Are our leaders at the Pentagon this clueless? This hapless? This unimaginative?
When asked by Lyndsey Graham what was the key to suceess in Iraq, Abizaid replied "the disbandment of the militias". When? To which Abizaid answered what has now been exposed to be the chief strategy of the Pentagon in winning this war and getting our men and women out of Iraq: "I don't know."
So America has heard from our leaders and the plan is crystal clear: a sudden increase of parental love for children in Iraq or a magical spontaneous disolution of the militias will bring our boys and girls home. I can't wait. But I am not holding my breath either.
Is it possible to aver (finally) that the U.S. occupation is in its "last throes"?
It looks as if the election was cancelled because while the Sadrists are becoming more popular in the South, they are not popular enough in Washington DC.
I imagine that the neocons are afraid that the Iraqi Shia have local and regional agendas that don't square with their vision of a "New Middle East", and thus can't be trusted to go along with neocon plans.
Apparently the neocon crowd had no idea of the relationships between the Shia communities of the region and they now see those relationships as a major threat. As evidence, read Charles Krauthammer's op-ed in the today's Washington Post. Lots of screeching about the Shia Threat, but no acknowledgement of how the removal of Saddam from power enhanced Shia power. From what I've been reading and hearing, the neocons are trying to whip up an US-led attack on Iran.
Regarding the general state of U.S. foreign/domestic policy and more specifically, "Plan B" for Iraq.
from SLATE: Friedman Flips?
With his "six-month window"[*] for Iraq apparently now over, the Times' Tom Friedman changes course and declares, "It's time to start thinking about Plan B
Unh... Plan B was (and still is) to foster sectarian division, civil war, mayhem, to allow the mil-ind-edu folks to profit from the ensuing sales of services and weapons systems...
Plan C? Plan C is to try to come up with a new plan wherein the people we've inspired to hate us don't follow us home. That's where despotism comes in.... It's part of "Plan C'.
Regrettably, we now believe, that only force, will make them leave.
"We believe that your way of life itself is unnecessary, ugly, and un-American. We cannot condone your present operations; they should be wiped off the slate."
-- Paul Goodman, October 1967, Speaking to the National Security Industrial Association
(The Military Industrial Educational Complex)
Dear Dr. Cole,
I watched a few minutes of Gen. Abizaid's testimoney, and his grilling by Sen. Hilary Clinton. I was wondering if the way she talked to him could have anything to do with her grandstanding for the pro-Israel lobby, of which she is a leading shill.
Is Gen. Abizaid of Arabic descent? His name certainly sounds like it, and you would know. Could any of her hostility to him be attributed to that?
Thank you, as always, for your wonderful, insightful posts.
May God help us all.
CONDI ET AL: ESTABLISH A PLAN FOR KURDS
Today there appears to be zero near term hope for either a unified peaceful Iraq or a successful tri-parte Iraq.
I hope that Condi, Koffi, Blair et al have begun diplomatic initiatives with Turkey and others to pave the way for an independent Kurdish entity.
It would be nice to see something positive such as a friendly peaceful stable Kurdish polity result from the Iraq incursion.
It would also be nicer yet to see the Bush administration actually anticipate and plan for the near future when the Kurds will need all the help they can get.
_______________________________
GOOGLE EARTH- see up close the side of the story our media elite will not cover..
Oh, Google will not let us zoom into those maps now.
Could it perhaps be time to suggest sanctions against google for failure to provide free market trasnparency?
We are the new Red China. Google has rendered us a censored , ignorant, state.
Jim Lobe on the ME transformation
Everything that Jim Lobe writes is well known to those who track the Arab media. Sure, Arab masses (aka Arab street) are more anti-Israel than Arab elites who are generally taken as American puppets who have no standing of their own.
Before the neocons, this weakness of the Arab rulers was recognized and taken for granted. Main advent of the neocons is to turn this weakness against the pro-Western regimes and systematically use it to blackmail them into more and more concessions.
On their side, Islamist radicals take this as an opportunity and come closer and closer to adopting the Al-Qaeda course on anti-Western revolution in the Arab world! This way, Nasrallah takes the leading role that Syrian, Saudi, Egyptian and Jordanian rulers are not able to play.
So, it is 100% true that rhetoric on "ME democracy" gradually self-destructs and follows the sad path of IWMD. But, knowing what happened in the recent past, all this does not mean that we can expect any more reasonable course in the ME than the current one.
In this respect, recent dems' rhetoric against Maliki's silent support for the Lebanese Hizbullah is not absurd, but actually quite telling. It means that, as before, American dems will not take political advantage of the GOP foreign policy failures, and the neocons still have a blank check to do whatever they want.
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