Maliki-Sadr Agreement on Sadr City;
Al-Maliki Heads to Mosul
The al-Maliki government and the Sadrists pulled back from the brink in Sadr City on Saturday. PM Nuri al-Maliki had demanded that the Mahdi Army militia that serves as the Sadrist paramilitary give up its arms and dissolve itself. The compromise simply states that the Iraqi security forces would be allowed in to Sadr City to search for suspected medium and heavy weapons. The implication is that the Mahdi Army may continue to exist and may keep its light weapons (e.g. AK-47s), though it has to pledge not to walk with them in public.
The siege of Sadr City is to be lifted and the major roads in and out of it are to be unblocked, according to the agreement.
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the agreement stipulates that the government should have a court order to come into Sadr City. Arrests of rogue commanders had to to be based on warrants and not just 'indiscriminate.' There is nothing in the agreement about the Mahdi Army disarming altogether, as Nuri Al-Maliki initially demanded.
Reading news about Iraq is like watching Bill Murray's 'Groundhog Day' in which you have to live through the same day over and over again. So the US and Iraqi governments have announced a new campaign against Sunni radicals in Ninevah province, especially Mosul. Take a look at this article, published late last January: "Thousands of Iraqi army soldiers reached the northern city of Mosul on Sunday in preparation for what the government said would be a major offensive there against Al-Qaeda in Iraq, along with other Sunni militants."
You have a sinking feeling that al-Maliki is recycling old announcements in a futile attempt to distract the public from his climb-down in Sadr City. Al-Maliki left for Mosul Saturday along with a few cabinet members and close advisers. Curfews have been announced in some Mosul neighborhoods.
Ninevah governor Duraid Kashmula admitted to Al-Hayat that Mosul "has come to dominated by the leaders of al-Qaeda as a result of the delay in the military operation in the city."
What??! Mosul is Iraq's second largest city at 1.7 million, and it is under the control of "al-Qaeda"? How long has this been the case? All this time? While the US press was reveling in the "calm" in the country?
Joel Brinkley points out that in the first four months of 2008, the Iraq trend lines are going the wrong way again. Worse, the Iraqi occupation is generating a wave of terrorism in the Middle East as trained insurgents return home from Iraq:
' In Morocco last year, "a series of suicide bombs shattered the relative lull in terrorist violence" over the previous five years, the report said. "Extremist veterans returning from Iraq" were training inexperienced insurgent fighters, who then carried out bloody attacks in Casablanca and other cities. King Mohamed VI observed that security in his corner of the Middle East is now "linked to the security of the region."
In neighboring Algeria, insurgents "used propaganda based on the call to fight in Iraq as a hook to recruit young people, many of whom never made it to Iraq but were redirected" to local insurgent cells instead. They carried out "high-profile terrorist attacks throughout the country." . .
Gen. Mansour al-Turki, Saudi Arabia's Interior Ministry spokesman, once told me that Saudi militants "wanted to spread their war against the United States and found that doing this was easier in their own country." He drew this conclusion, he said, from interviews with insurgents he had arrested. "The invasion of Iraq enabled them to convince others in the country to share their goals. For that reason, the invasion was very important to them." The terror report described similar patterns in Jordan, Syria, Kuwait, Yemen and elsewhere. '
As Brinkley points out, the clear evidence of the falsehood of the Pentagon talking points about a "calm Iraq" (based on what was going on in Novemenber and December!) doesn't prevent them from being conveyed unexamined right to the front page.
The Turkish military claimed to have killed 17 Kurdish guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) in air strikes on eastern Turkey near Iraq on Saturday.
Iraq's war widows struggle to keep young families alive.
An eyewitness account of recent events in South Lebanon.
Lebanon has things so backwards. Its political parties are fighting military battles and its army is negotiating a political settlement.
New NYT blog in Arabic, this one on Saudi youth.
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 5/10/2008 07:00:00 PM
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I do hope the ceasefire sticks; the situation in Sadr City was beginning to get grisly.
Maybe Najaf had something to say in the end, but I do find it curious that the agreement comes just after the agreement in Lebanon. One influencing the other?
At any rate, a successful agreement would leave Sadr in a good position for the elections in November.
I am reading about the junta in Burma. Of how they allowed millions of people to be exposed to the brunt of a cyclone with no warning. Of how perhaps 100,000 died in the course of a single day as a result. That perhaps a million, or more even, will die now as a result of the junta's own inability to help and their adamant refusal to let others help.
I am reading at the outrage around the world at this disgraceful state of affairs.
And I am reading of another equally disgraceful state of affairs :
Gaza power plant shuts down
A power plant in Gaza City has shut down, affecting 500,000 local inhabitants and forcing local hospitals to run on reserve fuel... With hospital generators running out of fuel, it is feared that medical equipment that will stop functioning soon.
About this second disgrace there is little notice. Just as there was no notice given to the Burmese in the path of the storm.
After this second disgrace outside aid is also kept from arriving.
Yet about this second disgrace there is no outrage around the world.
For it is not a new outrage. Not one that will set the blood of righteous indignation coursing anew through your veins!
It is an old outrage. Like reading of a pogrom against the Jews in the Middle Ages. In Europe. In Russia. In History. Boring in the making. Watching blood dry is like watching paint dry, apparently. Like watching grass grow on new graves.
It is the disgraceful nature of the state of affairs in Burma that keeps the junta from allowing aid to reach the people.
The junta does not want to let the world see the disgraceful state of the country after forty year under its yoke.
It is the disgraceful nature of the state of affairs in Gaza that keeps the media from reporting it as well.
The media do not want to embarrass those whose "benign neglect" of these past forty years is responsible for the tradgedy unfolding, in slow motion, with plenty of points at which it might be stopped.
The media know who not to embarrass, know whose lives to sacrifice and whose pride to spare.
I will turn now to Dante's Inferno. I will discover the place reserved in hell for those whose pride is so great that they will allow the deaths of thousands, of millions to proceed before they will sacrifice their pride.
Before they will admit their sins.
Before they will seek to right the wrongs for which they are responsible insofar as possible, and to beg the forgiveness of those they have wronged.
"Lebanon has things so backwards. Its political parties are fighting military battles and its army is negotiating a political settlement."
Old South American saying:
Colombia es una naciòn
De cosas singulares:
Los civiles dan la guerra
Y la paz, los militares.
And as if there weren't enough disturbing news today, it looks as though Fallon and Stufflebeem have been joined by yet another commander who might not have been sufficiently gungho about attacking Iran:
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OKYO — The U.S. Navy air wing commander for the USS Kitty Hawk’s strike group was relieved of duty Friday after an admiral said he lost confidence in the commander’s ability, according to a Navy spokeswoman.
Capt. Michael P. McNellis was relieved as commander of Carrier Air Wing 5 by Rear Adm. Richard B. Wren, commander of Commander Task Force 70, the Navy said in a news release.
...
Capt. Michael S. White, the former air wing deputy commander, assumed command, Sommer said.
McNellis took command of Carrier Air Wing 5 in September 2006 from Capt. Garry Mace, who commended McNellis at the time for his experience.
“Since I started working with [McNellis], he’s always been a moral compass for me, keeping me pointed in the right direction,” Mace said in 2006. “I’m sure as a leader, he’ll do great things for this air wing.”
http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=54697
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Odd - that comment about McNellis being a moral compass. I don't think the White House likes military folks with moral compasses. Meanwhile, Wren, who kicked him out, seems to have had quite a quick rise from ships captain to rear admiral under Bush. He must be doing something right, in a Bushian sense.
http://www.navy.mil/navydata/bios/navybio.asp?bioID=303
No doubt, like Stufflebeem, the 'real' reason was some kind of sexual indiscretion a decade ago. Just as with Fallon, the 'real' reason was that he was too political (though he was surely less political than Bush's various military favorites have been).
As we have discussed / speculated before, al-Sadr's best endgame strategy is: (1) to present himself and his anti-occupation Shi'ite movement (ie., non-aligned with either the Americans' or the Iranians' Zones d'Occupation), as ‘IRAQ’ nationalists; and (2) to use "nationalism", thus as a lever by which he can expand his political capacity : encourage alliances with dis-enfranchised peoples, for example, the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front.
Asia Times : “The Americans have wanted to eliminate Muqtada from day one, but were prevented from doing so, first under the mediation of the Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, then under Maliki's direct intervention. Maliki needed Muqtada to obtain legitimacy in the Shi'ite community when first becoming prime minister in May 2006.”
“Muqtada legitimized him among young Iraqis and poor Iraqis, while Maliki provided a security umbrella. Nobody would harass the Mahdi Army as long as he was serving as prime minister. In addition to six seats in the Iraqi cabinet, and 30 seats in Parliament (all obtained by virtue of Muqtada's popularity) the Sadrists were allowed to keep their militia - and often use it - to settle old scores with the Ba'athists, or new ones either with al-Qaeda and rising Sunni militias.”
“Provided these arms were not being used against Maliki - or the Americans - then everybody seemed pleased with Muqtada. Soon, however, Maliki could no longer control the power and ambition of Muqtada. The young cleric learns quickly - too quickly some would say - and started creating a system that made him the uncrowned king of Baghdad.”
“Learning from the Hezbollah model and inspired by Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, he eliminated any anti-Sunni rhetoric from his speeches and began calling for rapprochement with Sunnis. At a time when Maliki was increasingly unable to deliver anything to disgruntled Sunnis, they found solace in the words of Muqtada.”
“Despite the bad blood between them in 2004-2007, especially after Muqtada's team accused the Sunnis of blowing up the holy Shi'ite site at Samarra, the Sunnis were willing to work with Muqtada to bring down Maliki. Muqtada had personally and publicly challenged the Sunnis by discriminating against them in government ministries under his control, like the Ministry of Health, Commerce and Education. He turned a blind eye to the death squads roaming the streets of Baghdad - searching for trouble, with Sunni notables. He did nothing to prevent attacks on Sunni mosques, the assassination of Sunni clerics and the razing of Sunni neighborhoods after the attack on Samarra.”
“All the same, Muqtada seemed less dangerous than Maliki because he was clear about his agenda and his vision: He does not tolerate the Americans in Iraq, just like the Sunnis despise them; He does not want to partition Iraq and give the Shi'ites an autonomous district in the south, which had been called for by Maliki's ally, Hakim; Although he wants a theocracy inspired by the Iranian model, he nevertheless does not want the Iranians to meddle in Iraqi affairs :
“He wants to maintain Iraq's Arab identity and strengthen its relations with its Arab neighbors.”
“Maliki feared a double deal; some kind of united front between the Sunnis and Muqtada, and under American urging, cracked down on the Sadrists.”
24-APR-2008 => Sunni bloc set to rejoin Iraqi Cabinet
in retrospect, this was perhaps our best indication that al-Sadr's best endgame apparent had failed: that he had become vulnerable, thus. Whatever happens next, whether al-Sadr fades or al-Maliki flounders ~ we can now write, "al-Sadr's best endgame strategy was... die Nationalismus der Irakischen Völker."
RE: Mosul
Right after Maliki's attack on Basra went bad, when US military in Iraq were expressing their surprise in the media, some explained that they thought Maliki was going to "do" Mosul first.
Not a bad day if your an arab shia. Their lebanese brothers displayed their power and ability to control the nation yet kept their honour by immediately reliquishing control to the ever more popular army ( I have to disagree with you juan, in that their neutrality avoided them getting drawn into a no win fight with Hezbullah and running the risk of splitting the army. There were more pros in staying out than cons).
And the Iraqis stopped killing each other in sadr city and the army sent its men to go fight the rabidly anti shia salafis who have mosul in their grip.
Not a bad day at all.
This is such a crazy situation ... it may be that in fact this is Maliki again DEFYING the Americans ... as happened in Basra.
Also, remember the Americans had approved the Basra "sweep" but thought it would be later (August was mentioned?) and coordinated with them.
Sadr's call for Sistani to condemn or offer a fatwa wrt aerial bombardments (which he did not answer as far as I am aware) spoke to this. (Did Sistani lose face here?)
Yesterday's reports said the Iraqi army (with US support -- which always means air raids) were poised to attack Sadr City imminently before the cease fire and then the truce was called.
I seem to recall that the original Basra sweep was supposed to happen AFTER the sweep of Mosul ...
The provincial elections are still scheduled for October 10, 2008 (with national elections next year).
At some point we may realize that the current Iraqi government will never pass the oil revenue sharing plan ... the only hope is a more repesentative, more legitimately elected parliament (imho).
I can only hope that "we" realize that genuine national stability cannot occur without Sadr (and the Mahdi) and stop trying to marginalize (decimate, assasinate) what is pragmatically probably the most politically unifying political figure around (who our cronies in the south hate ... for all the usual reasons). I can dream can't I? I don't know the election run-up calendar but everyone better stop fighting so the campaigning can begin (lol)
Oh, I read Iran again brokered the Maliki-Sadr deal.
Oh, and fighting has broken out in Beruit again.
At some point we may realize that the current Iraqi government will never pass the oil revenue sharing plan ... the only hope is a more representative, more legitimately elected parliament (imho).
Why on earth would a legitimate government, one representative of the Iraqi people even consider the Bush oil ("revenue sharing") plan?
"You have a sinking feeling that al-Maliki is recycling old announcements in a futile attempt to distract the public from his climb-down in Sadr City."
You make it sound as if a "climb-down" is something for him to be embarrassed about. Would you have had him level Sadr City just to vindicate his manhood?
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