McCain Unit Rolled out;
Funeral Bombing Toll Rises to 25;
Baghdad Governor's Convoy Blown Up;
VOA reports that on May 15, 'Clashes in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad's Sadr City district have left at least seven people dead
, despite a deal aimed at ending the bloodshed. Iraqi officials said Thursday the fighting between Iraqi security forces and Shi'ite militants loyal to radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr broke out overnight and in the early morning. Hospital officials say 19 people were wounded, including women and children.'
Remember how Tom Friedman and Bush administration spokesmen kept saying that "the next six months" would be crucial for Iraq? They said it in 2003, 2004, 2005, etc., etc. Atrios finally called them on it, terming it the "Friedman unit".
Now we have the new, improved, "McCain unit"-- which is apparently that the next four years will be crucial in Iraq. Indeed, McCain predicted "victory" by 2013, four years after he hopes to take office as the new president. Of course if victory does not come by 2013, then the next McCain unit would kick in, with the years leading up to 2017 being "crucial" for Iraq.
William Lind explains why McCain's fantasy of victory is highly unlikely to be fulfilled. Lind calls Iraq a 'fourth generation war' in which there is no real state capacity on which the US can build, and in which the enemy is shadowy and slips away before conventional forces (as in Basra, where rightwing commentators have mistaken the Mahdi Army's ability to melt away and lie low as a victory for the [non-existent] state). The US really only controls the ground on which its soldiers tread, and that reality may well not change during the next 4 years. If Lind is right, McCain is hanging US policy on a set of ideas out of the 1940s that have no application in Iraq today.
The "McCain unit" is already a public relations bust. It sounds like a timetable to Democrats. It is too far off for most people to take seriously. The beauty of the Friedman unit was that it seemed relatively near, but people could be depended to forget about its last use before it was invoked again. The "McCain unit" will tax the public's patience too much, not to mention their pocket books. His unit probably has a $1 trillion tax bill attached to it all at once. And his unit is too specific, calling for "victory." The Friedman unit was deliberately vague about what exactly would happen in the next six months that was "crucial" for Iraq.
"Three employees of the Iranian embassy and their Iraqi driver were shot and wounded as they traveled Thursday to the Shiite Kadhemiyah Shrine in northern Baghdad."
Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Mosul power elite is increasingly disturbed by the central government's military campaign in that city. They say that they would be willing to keep on the sidelines if the al-Maliki government just went after "al-Qaeda" (the Salafi Jihadis) in the city. But they say that the al-Maliki forces have arrested dozens of ex-members of the Baath Party, as well as former military officers. They say that if this campaign against the Mosul elite continues, they will be forced to act. The al-Maliki government had given them undertakings that it would only target "al-Qaeda", but in fact it has arrested over 900 persons, many of them ex-Baathists.
The US is cutting off relations with Iraqi politician and notorious embezzler and liar Ahmad Chalabi for the fourth time. This time the issue is said to be his deteriorating relations with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his closeness to Brig. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, head of the Jerusalem (Quds) Brigades of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Actually my suspicion is that Chalabi is supporting the Mahdi Army of Muqtada al-Sadr and that is the real reason for the tension with him. Sadr wants the US out on a short timetable and opposes the passage of an oil law that the Bush administration desperately wants.
McClatchy reports political violence for Thursday:
' Baghdad
A roadside bomb exploded targeting the motorcade of the Governor of Baghdad in Nasr Square, Sadoun Street, central Baghdad at 8 am Thursday. 1 security personnel was killed and 4 others as well as 2 civilians were injured.
A roadside bomb targeted a joint US military and Iraqi Army patrol in al-Khadhra neighbourhood, west Baghdad at noon Thursday. 1 Iraqi army serviceman was killed and 4 were injured, said Iraqi Police.
A roadside bomb targeted a US military convoy in al-Qanat, near al-Amin neighbourhood at 1 pm. One Hummer vehicle was destroyed, according to Iraqi Police. No comment was available from the US military at time of publication. A roadside bomb targeted a US military convoy in Fdhailiyah, northeast Baghdad at around 6 pm Thursday. No casualties were reported.
3 unidentified bodies were found in Baghdad by Iraqi Police today. 1 in Fdhailiyah; 1 in Iskan and 1 in Bayaa.
Salahuddin
3 prominent doctors were kidnapped by gunmen on the way between Tikrit and Baiji, close to al-Hamra village, 20 km to the north of Tikrit. They are Dr. Sabbar Mahrooz Abdullah, administrator of Tikrit Teaching Hospital, his deputy and specialist Dr. Ahmed Salah.
Sulaimaniyah
Iranian bombardment hit border villages in Qalaat Daza district. Local governmental sources say that the bombardment started early Thursday and continued intermittently into the afternoon. No casualties were reported.'
Reuters reports political violence on Thursday and Wednesday, including the rising death toll from the bombing of a funeral, which has reached 25:
' BAGHDAD - The final death toll from a suicide attack on a funeral west of Baghdad on Wednesday was 25, police said. They said 48 people were wounded.
BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb targeted the convoy of Baghdad's Governor Hussein al-Tahan, killing one of his guards and wounding six people near al-Nasser Square in central Baghdad, police said. Al-Tahan was not in the convoy.
BAGHDAD - The bodies of five people were found in Baghdad on Wednesday, police said.
BAGHDAD - The U.S. military said it killed four militants in clashes on Wednesday afternoon in the Kadhimiya district of northwestern Baghdad.
MOSUL - The Iraqi army said it arrested the manager of the Nineveh governor's office in a raid in southern Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad.
MOSUL - The Iraqi army said it arrested the head of the facilities protection force in Mosul on Wednesday. '
Labels: Iraq
posted by Juan Cole @ 5/16/2008 06:26:00 AM
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11 Comments:
"Sulaimaniyah
Iranian bombardment hit border villages in Qalaat Daza district. Local governmental sources say that the bombardment started early Thursday and continued intermittently into the afternoon. No casualties were reported.'
What's this?
regards
Richard
Juan Chalabi is the Iraqi Robin Hood. He stole from the rich baath appeasing Jordanians, did 'taqiyah' to the americans to get rid of Saddam by talking nonsense about setting up a secular pro israel iraq, which he knew to be impossible, and can now stroll into Sadr City unharmed. He also lives outside the GZ unlike all the other carbet baggers.
I think you are really mistaken in somehow singling him out as some sort of corrupt monster when in comparison to the other thieves, he at least has many good virtues, at least in the eyes of the iraqi people. He was never an ex baathist, unlike many still in the GZ, he got caught spying for Iran, which boosts his islamist credentials and he must be doing something right for the Sadrist street to not hate him like they hate the other so called pious islamists.
Seriously Juan you always have harsh words for him but as far as iraqis deeply corrupt political elite goes, he isnt that bad. It is also misleading the way certain people make out like Chalabi led poor wittle amewica into war, with his WMD lies. Bush was planning for this war as early as 2001 and there was no shortage of exiles to say what the Admin wanted them to say in order to implicate Saddam in WMD scandals.
Chalabi was simply the best placed to take advantage. Trust me Juan, the US was going to war, with or without Chalabi. Halliburtons upturn in fortunes is a testament to the powers that really made this war happen, and lets not forget Israel.
Chalabi was not that important in the equation compared to these mammoth lobbies. Their interests come first and they said war, and war it was.
ref : “(...commentators have mistaken the Mahdi Army's ability to melt away and lie low as ‘a victory’ for the [non-existent] state). The US really only controls the ground on which its soldiers tread...”
well said; and imho, “the US really only controls the ground on which its soldiers tread” is an entirely illusionless, more profound statement of historical fact than at first it might appear. Even if, unlike most of us who participate in this forum ~ you favor the policy of American Occupation of IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN, for whatever reasons ~ the reality of its implementation has so far been: that we have been unable, (or strangely, unwilling) to actually "occupy" these ‘States’, themselves : we find ourselves, in effect confined to bases of our own making; islands apartheid, painfully isolated from the cultural ponds in which our Green Zone lilly pads struggle to remain afloat...
...and manage to do so only at great blood and treasure cost. The respected German General Rommel, fwiw once likened the desert battlespaces of the Middle East as being not unlike Naval Warfare (where ‘occupation of space’ is irrelevant, w.r.t. the relevant, all-important relative positions of opposing forces). That being said, American forces exist in three dimensions; ie., we do occupy the entire air-space above these notions of nations. And that is important, if not vital to our survival, Over There.
otoh, It is fascinating to this writer how “the conversation” Over Here is all about occupying blocks of TIME, not SPACE: ie., a "timetable" for withdrawal: is this acknowledging "Victory", or an admission of "Defeat"? a "timeline" of historical intents and purposes : were We/our leaders delusional, or malevolent? Then, the ‘6-month Friedman Unit’, the ‘4-year McCain Unit’; in other words, We can't get this done now, or change that political policy because of some ‘Election Cycle’ political process itself; and, Perhaps most important of all: to occupy the "news cycle" : the persistence of memory.
Because, when all this becomes history writ, it will be the essential task of historians to explain to the future: how we have ‘parsed’ the present into all these "24-hour", or "3-day" or two-week EVENTS...
...periods of awareness that seem to exist (to us) existentially ~ coming from out of nowhere, attached to no thing; without any other context, apparent, other than what is evident NOW. Rather then a chain of rational causes : effects... we experienced "Perpetual being at War" as not some process extent or even policy intent, but as a collective series of all these surprising little situations; revelations and realizations that came and went.
That, rather than fighting some enemy, them, we found ourselves fighting against imaginary weapons: the "Weapons of Mass Destruction" of despotic regimes; the "Heavy Weapons" of resistance fighters; and i daresay, the "Terrorism" of evil-doers.
imho their cause is our occupation of their space; in response their weapon is their occupation of our time : their willingness to sacrifice themselves to survive (and "win" The Occupation, thus). An occupation is, by nature ~ a means to an endless-ness being, in which the only metric with meaning is attrition: ‘to occupy’ is neither to merge with nor acquire some space, but to become the enemy of the future of that which remains their place.
The historian must somehow explain, not so much "Why We Fought", and so many died ~ but "How We Lived", and who survived through this major War as if it was a Glass Bead Game of strung-together, more minor EVENTs. How do we say that for us, the present was this time of waxing and waning notions of "Why We should continue Fighting a War, apparent" against ourselves, Over Here; and arbitrary others, armed with invisible weapons, Over There; And all these things happened to US and THEM sans raisons raisonnables?
Chalabi's Short-Lived Comeback
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1807227,00.html?xid=rss-world
Over the past six months, Chalabi has focused a lot of attention on delivering services to Sadr City, the major stronghold of the firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. To do this required close coordination with al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia, which has over the past month been locked in fierce battles with US and Iraqi government forces. "We talk to the Madhi Army," says Chalabi spokesman Mohammad Hassan al-Moussawi, "because the Madhi Army is the one holding the ground [ in Sadr City ]."
But his coordination with the Sadrists has put Chalabi at odds with Prime Minister Maliki. Malaki launched a military offensive in March to squeeze the Mahdi Army out of Sadr City. One of the militia's tactics, taking a page out of the playbook of Lebanon's Hizballah, has been to secure popular support by delivering some of their basic welfare needs. A US official says it is for this reason that Chalabi's coordination with the militia in the course of delivering basic services in Sadr City has become a point of contention with Maliki. And the US is simply following the lead of the Iraqi government by cutting ties with Chalabi, says the official. "This is a beef between Maliki and Chalabi," a US official said, "and we back Maliki." Chalabi's office denies any tension. "We have very good relations with Maliki," says a spokesman, adding that all of his efforts to deliver services in Sadr City are being done not to serve Chalabi's personal political ambitions, but "in the name of the Iraqi government." No longer, it seems.
Candidate McCain's victory 'promise' struck me as interesting... 2013 is AFTER the NEXT presidential election.
In other words, he can deliver victorious withdrawal, but only in his second term?
And if he doesn't, his accountability would be what? Severe embarrassment for his lame-duckness?
Maybe Sen. McCain remembers what it was like during the first Nixon term, while the President worked out the details of his 'secret' plan to end the war.
Interesting theory , monsieur gonzo.
One thing for sure , time is on the side of all the anti-USA forces , be it in Afghanistan or Iraq.
The McCain unit is the essentially the same as the Obama unit. But Juan continues to give Obama a free pass.
I had been waiting for some comment on the 60th Anniversay of Israel/al Nakbah but none seems forthcoming. There are comments elswhere led by Amy Goodman and witnessed by Jonathan Cook.
...and reportage from Jim Lobe.
Press coverage of the former Iraq is deteriorating even further, it looks like. At the moment I cannot make out
(1) whether Dr. Chalabí has or has not been dismissed from his position in the International Zone régime’s social services offensive,
and
(2) whether the I.Z. régime's military offensive at Mosul is silly-codenamed "Lion’s Roar" (as Slogger City still calls it) or "Mother of Two Springs" (with AFP and most of the pack).
Happy days.
Re: JHM's comment.
1) The social services position was created to serve Chalabi, in the hope of making him popular and possibly back in government. This has totally failed, so the position itself is dead.
2) The "Lion's Roar" is supposed to be a seperate, earlier and shorter, operation that was followed by the "Umm al-Rabi'ain". The Arabic terms "Abu" and "Umm" do mean father and mother. But they can also mean the owner-of or the one-with or having, in masculine (abu) in feminine (umm.)
Umm al-Rabi'ain does mean the one-with two springs, rather than the ridiculous mother-of. The name, one of many given to Mosul city, is linked to the pleasant fall season, making it feel like a second spring.
The Lion's Roar was a strategic error and could have ended worse than the early phase of the ill-fated Basra offensive. Badr-led troops went to assault the city in its entirety but could have been wiped out.
The tribe leaders and Nineveh MPs persuaded the government to tone it down, and the Umm al-Rabi'ain has not involved any actual fighting so far. Moreover, Maliki has promised that those arrested will be released, even if they are anti-US or anti-government, provided they haven't killed any Iraqis. He has also order that the officers of the pre-2003 army be re-instated!
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