Provincial Election Returns

Nate Silver was provided with an English translation of the official report of provincial election results by Daniel Berman and other graduate students at the U of St. Andrews.

I continue to find these figures unlikely. There is very little variation in Ahmadinejad’s numbers across provinces, except in two cases. In past elections the numbers have been all over the place. And that he took Isfahan province, with its big urban center, by 69% would, well, require explanation. Although this press release is now admitting that Ahmadinejad lost in largely Sunni Sistan & Baluchistan, where he is hated, on Saturday the government was leaking that he had won there. My guess is that by Sunday night they had been roundly told that announcing such an outcome made them look ridiculous, so they toned it down.

That Karoubi got 5% of the vote in his home province is also suspicious.

h/t Chris Good

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