Tunisia’s Slow Unraveling: From Arab Spring Beacon to Police State

( Middle East Monitor ) – Just over a decade ago, Tunisia was the brightest light of the Arab Spring—the rare case where mass protest led to a peaceful transition and hopes for real democracy. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in 2010 triggered a revolution that toppled Ben Ali’s regime and inspired uprisings across the region. Tunisia’s 2011 transition raised hopes for freedom, rights, and accountable governance.

Today, that promise feels distant. The country is sliding back into authoritarianism under President Kais Saied—once seen as a reformer, now ruling by decree and dismantling democratic checks. For many Tunisians, he remains both a saviour and a threat, embodying the contradictions of a nation caught between revolution and repression.

The Rise of Kais Saied: Populist Saviour or Strongman? 

Kais Saied’s meteoric rise in 2019 was driven by deep public frustration with Tunisia’s political elite—accused of corruption, gridlock, and economic failure. A constitutional law professor with no party affiliation and minimal funding, he ran as an outsider, rejecting campaign donations and relying on word of mouth, grassroots support, and social media. Touring the country in a school bus, he connected directly with voters and won by a landslide. Before the campaign, few outside Tunis University had heard of him.

Saied’s promises to restore dignity, fight corruption, and return power to the people resonated with Tunisians weary of instability and decline. But early hope soon gave way to concern, as his presidency revealed a growing intolerance for dissent and a drive to concentrate power.

Now in his second term, Saied remains relatively popular. The constitution bars him from seeking a third term in 2029, but ambiguity remains. The 2022 constitution—drafted under his supervision—grants him unchecked authority to interpret its provisions. Article 96 allows the president to take “any measures” deemed necessary to protect the Republic, leaving little room for judicial oversight or constitutional challenge.

The turning point came on 25 July 2021, when Saied invoked Article 80 of the Tunisian 2014 Constitution to suspend parliament, dismiss the prime minister, and assume executive authority—actions he framed as necessary to save the revolution and the state.

For many, this was a constitutional coup that dismantled the democratic institutions painstakingly built since 2011. Saied sidelined the parliament—dominated by the Islamist En Nahda party—and imposed emergency measures, including restrictions on the press, civil liberties, and political freedoms. The move was initially welcomed by a significant portion of Tunisians exhausted by political deadlock and economic decline. Saied’s approval ratings soared, as many believed he was the strongman needed to restore order and enact reforms.

But beneath this surface approval lay growing concerns: arbitrary arrests of opposition figures, attacks on independent media, and a shrinking space for civil society. Critics argue that Saied’s actions have weakened Tunisia’s democratic checks and balances and opened the door to unchecked presidential power.

The Making of a Police State

Since 2021, Tunisia’s judiciary has been systematically undermined. President Saied dissolved the elected High Judicial Council and dismissed 57 judges and prosecutors by decree—despite a court order in 2022 to reinstate most of them. Loyalists have been placed in key judicial positions, fundamentally weakening institutional checks and balances.

At the same time, independent media outlets have been subjected to increasing repression. Under the broad provisions of Decree-Law 54 (“anti-fake-news”), at least 28 journalists and media figures have been detained or investigated. News agency, Reuters, also reports that trials of opposition figures and journalists are being used “to silence dissent,” with government control extending over courts and police.

Press freedom watchdog Reporters Without Borders ranks Tunisia 129th out of 180 countries in its 2025 Press Freedom Index—flagging “judicial, political and economic pressure” that stifles independent journalism. Human Rights Watch warns that authorities are using arbitrary detention and military courts against journalists, lawyers, activists, and political opponents—creating a climate of repression that severely curtails public debate and free expression.

Such trends point to a country, increasingly, shaped by the mechanisms of a police state—where fear, not free debate, has become the dominant force

Deepening Economic and Social Crisis 

Tunisia’s political crisis is inseparable from its worsening economic and social conditions. The country faces persistently classic economic ailments like unemployment, inflation, lack of foreign investment and an unsustainable public debt burden.

Many Tunisians now view growing political repression as a trade-off for stability—a painful price for order in the face of chaos. It reflects a tragic irony: the very freedoms gained in 2011 are now being sacrificed in the name of security and centralised control.

The economic picture offers little cause for optimism. Unemployment stood at 15.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, while inflation continues to erode already-squeezed household savings, reaching 5.4 per cent in June. Public debt is between 79 per cent and  approaching 82 per cent GDP, and external debt remains high at around 79 per cent, putting Tunisia under severe fiscal stress. While not technically bankrupt, the state is deeply constrained—its economic distress driven as much by governance failures and structural inefficiencies as by security costs. In that sense, President Saied’s critique of the post-2011 political order resonates with some Tunisians.

Tourism, once Tunisia’s economic engine, has yet to fully recover from the trauma of the 2015 terrorist attacks in Sousse and Bardo. In 2010, the country welcomed over 7 million tourists; in contrast, 2023 figures were still below 2021 levels, hovering around 6 million. This slow rebound weakens a sector that was once a leading source of foreign currency, employment, and national pride.

Why Do Some Still Cherish Saied?

Despite growing authoritarianism, Kais Saied retains a loyal base. For many Tunisians, he represents a clean break from corrupt elites and a bulwark against Islamist forces blamed for years of dysfunction. His rise has also weakened the long-dominant, French-educated elite that shaped Tunisia’s post-independence state.

His populist tone and nationalist messaging resonate with citizens disillusioned by failed promises. His vocal rejection of Western-backed normalisation with Israel and condemnation of the genocide in Gaza have further boosted his popularity, aligning him with a deeply felt Arab cause.

Supporters often dismiss criticism of Saied as foreign meddling or nostalgia for the old regime. The result is a fractured society, torn between two futures: one of liberal democracy and pluralism, the other of centralised authority promising order—even at the cost of dissent.

Photo of Carthage, Tunis by Tina Boujemil on Unsplash

What Lies Ahead?

Tunisia’s decline is not inevitable, but reversing it will require bold leadership and real pressure—domestic and international. Above all, the economy remains the core of the crisis, regardless of who holds power.

Still, the country’s civil society, youth activists, and independent media offer hope. They continue to demand accountability and a return to democratic norms. But without structural reform, constitutional guarantees, and a true commitment to pluralism, Tunisia risks becoming just another authoritarian regime.

The Arab Spring’s birthplace deserves better. The world must pay attention—not only to defend Tunisia’s fragile freedoms, but to honour the dreams of millions who once believed in change.

Mustafa Fetouri is a Libyan academic and freelance journalist. He is a recipient of the EU’s Freedom of the Press prize.

Via Middle East Monitor

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