Juan Cole

Race Up in Air Early Wednesday Morning As of this writing, Kerry could still win, but it won’t be easy. Bush has a very small lead in Ohio, of about 100,000, at 1:40 am. But the Democrats maintain that there are over 200,000 provisional ballots yet to be counted, and that they could make up […]

Carville thinks It is Over James Carville has essentially called the election for Bush. He says his contacts in Ohio are not able to give him any good news. Carville has been around the block and should be taken seriously. But he isn’t infallible and I’d rather wait and see the numbers from Cleveland and […]

Kerry takes Oregon, Maine CBS is projecting Washington, Oregon and California all for Kerry, and he gets all four electoral votes from Maine. This is excellent news for Kerry, since it makes it less likely Bush can put together an alternative if Kerry takes the upper midwest.

Bush is on the Verge of Winning? Dan Rather and Bob Schieffer are pointing out that with Kerry’s loss of Florida, he needs to sweep Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, to win. If Bush takes either Michigan or Ohio he will be within spitting distance of winning. For Kerry to take Ohio and Michigan, however, is not […]

Can the US System be Reformed? Given the talk in Washington about whether it is possible to reform the Arab world, I found the discussion this evening on al-Jazeera amusing. They had an Iraqi analyst on, who said that if there wasn’t a clear break for one of the candidates in the next few hours, […]

Legal Stalling in Ohio? Josh Marshall is reporting that Republicans in Ohio have resorted to the courts to interfere with the election. NYT has some reporting on the back story from Monday and early Tuesday for Wednesday’s edition. Its early take on the way the polling proceeded in Ohio is positive, but its stringers may […]

Pennsylvania for Kerry, Florida for Bush CNN is calling Pennsylvania for Kerry. They are still saying Florida is too close to call, but CNN analysts clearly think Bush has it in the bag. It comes down to Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. Missouri is still in play.

Pennsylvania for Kerry? Suburbs? Kerry did amazingly well in exit polls in Philadelphia suburbs, according to AP. That could easily offset the Bush vote in the “T.” This report is one of the few detailed accounts of voting trends in one of the contested states, aside from New Jersey, which turns out not to have […]

At last! Jon Stewart is on the Comedy Channel Nothing much is moving with regard to calling important states. The next poll closings are not until 11:00 EST. The easy things to call are the solid blue and red states. The networks are afraid of making major errors, as they had in 2000, so they […]