I think you overestimate the human capacity for insight. This uprising, or something like it, was almost inevitable, but the timing certainly was not. If you look at other uprisings you'll see they generally caught everyone by surprise. Think of it this way: if the uprising could have been predicted, it would have been quashed by the people who had an interest in maintaining the status quo, not the least of which is the U.S. If the whole world misses something it is, pretty much by definition, difficult to find.
As a longtime observer of the ME, the one thing I have learned is that optimism is always, ALWAYS, rewarded with disappoinment. Here's hoping this time turns out differently.
BTW, I am curious to discover what you think about the idea of Egypt as firewall; ie, if the movement is stopped in Egypt, then it brakes the momentum of liberalization elsewhere in the ME. If that's the case, as I think it is, then the autocrats and their friends will fight extra hard to ensure the movement in Egypt is stopped. Putting things off until at least September would likely do that. These sorts of angry blowups are usually ephemeral, and then resentments go back to smoldering. Smoldering can be managed.
The military held back, gaining credibility with the protesters, and now they want to use that credibility to quell the protests. And I will give you good odds this was the plan all along, and the Obama administration is in on it.
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It's amazing that this stuff has to be pointed out.
I think you overestimate the human capacity for insight. This uprising, or something like it, was almost inevitable, but the timing certainly was not. If you look at other uprisings you'll see they generally caught everyone by surprise. Think of it this way: if the uprising could have been predicted, it would have been quashed by the people who had an interest in maintaining the status quo, not the least of which is the U.S. If the whole world misses something it is, pretty much by definition, difficult to find.
As a longtime observer of the ME, the one thing I have learned is that optimism is always, ALWAYS, rewarded with disappoinment. Here's hoping this time turns out differently.
BTW, I am curious to discover what you think about the idea of Egypt as firewall; ie, if the movement is stopped in Egypt, then it brakes the momentum of liberalization elsewhere in the ME. If that's the case, as I think it is, then the autocrats and their friends will fight extra hard to ensure the movement in Egypt is stopped. Putting things off until at least September would likely do that. These sorts of angry blowups are usually ephemeral, and then resentments go back to smoldering. Smoldering can be managed.
The military held back, gaining credibility with the protesters, and now they want to use that credibility to quell the protests. And I will give you good odds this was the plan all along, and the Obama administration is in on it.