What the Sunni Arab Vote Really Means
According to wire services, Sunnis in Fallujah came out to vote:
' not only get rid of the Americans but to also get rid of the Shiite-dominated government.
"It's an extremist government [and] we would like an end to the occupation," said Ahmed Majid, 31. "Really the only true solution is through politics. But there is the occupation and the only way that will end is with weapons."
Even in insurgent bastions such as Ramadi and Haqlaniyah, Sunnis were turning out in large numbers.
"I came here and voted in order to prove that Sunnis are not a minority in this country," said lawyer Yahya Abdul-Jalil in Ramadi. "We lost a lot during the last elections, but this time we will take our normal and key role in leading this country." '
It is not actually a positive sign for the Americans that Sunni Arabs came out to vote in order to get rid of them, to see if they couldn't get rid of the current pro-American government, to underline that the armed struggle will continue, and to prove that Sunni Arabs (20% of so of the population) are a majority of the country! The American faith that if people go to the polls it means they won't also be blowing things up is badly misplaced.
Consider this news item from Northern Ireland in 1982:
' Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Provisional IRA, has won its first seats in the elections to the new Ulster Assembly.
Gerry Adams, vice president of Sinn Fein, took the Belfast West seat. It is the first time his party has stood for election since the Troubles began.
Mr Adams, 34, made clear that being elected would not stop the IRA's campaign of violence.
"The IRA have said that while the British army is in Ireland they will be there fighting" he said. '
Now let us consider this item from three years later, 1985:
' Thirteen people have been arrested in connection with a suspected IRA mainland bombing campaign uncovered by police two days ago.
The men - who are being held under the Prevention of Terrorism Act - include a 33-year-old from Belfast, suspected of carrying out the attack on the Conservative Cabinet in the Brighton Grand Hotel last year.
It is feared the IRA may have planted devices in a dozen seaside resorts around the UK - timed to go off at the height of the summer season - and a massive police hunt has been launched. '
Could the presence of Sinn Fein, the political arm of the militant Irish Republican Army, in the North Ireland assembly have had an effect on the peace negotiations in the mid-1990s? Sure. But my point is that these campaigns, the political and the bombing, can go on simultaneously for over a decade.
posted by Juan Cole @ 12/16/2005 12:30:00 AM
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11 Comments:
There is no sign of a victory in Iraq, save for the elections where a vast majority of diverse voters have one thing in common - they want the U.S. out of Iraq and out of Iraq's economy, foreign policy and military strategery.
And while the U.S. press is spinning the Iraqi elections as a sign of Sunni apathy with the insurgency, the Guardian reports that the Sunnis were, in fact, told to vote by the insurgents:
"In Ramadi, a centre of armed resistance to the US occupation, masked gunmen guarded polling stations in Ramadi. "The mujahedin were at the polling station urging us not to let our voice be split. They urged us to go for either of the two Sunni lists, the Consensus Front or Saleh al-Mutlaq," said Ali Abed al-Dulaimi, a retired car salesman, in a telephone interview. Both lists, one Islamist, one secular, claim to have links with the nationalist gunmen."
The reality of Iraq is that Iran today holds more sway over the Iraqi Shiites than the U.S. can claim to hold on any Iraqi group... And even as the Iranian president grows increasingly antagonistic toward Israel, to the horror of the West, the reaction from the region is far from supportive of the neocon magical mystery dream...
Hamas is stronger in Palestine (see yesterday's municipal election results), and vows support to Iran against Israel...
The Fatah might split and further weaken those Palestinian leaders who are trying to soften the blow of the popular strikes against Israel...
In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood is growing in power with every inch of freedom that is provided to the people - and they too reject the U.S.-Israeli alliance and yesterday demanded that a referendum on the Sadat-Begin peace treaty be carried out in Egypt to gauge the popular sentiments toward the "cancer" of Israel.
Meanwhile, the foreign policy goals of the U.S. hawks are out in the open, with Democrats like Sen. Lieberman trying to do one better and advocating the need for a War Cabinet...
As I had said in an earlier post, there is no shortage of small men in either American camp who want to dress like Churchill...
What these neoconmen forget, of course, is that Churchill fought for many years to maintain Britain's stranglehold on its colonies... While Ummrikans might only remember Churchill as the whiskey chucking, cigar smoking tough guy who stared down Hitler, Churchill's imperial history is burned into the minds of the third world.
It doesn't bode well for the neocons to be so completely transparent, indeed naked, in parading their colonialist roots... At least they could pretend to be someone a little more acceptable to the brownies and the blackies - but where would one find a Western leader of that ilk in the history of the West?
Great point and apt illustration about the compatable nature of an insurgency with get-out-the-vote.
Northern Ireland can teach us a lot, though not all, about Iraq.
The formation of Sectarian police and militay units has me very concerned.
One has to wonder what will happen when the new Iraqi government takes charge and the Sunnis find themselves with little or no power. What happens if the "majority" decides that Iraq should resemble an Islamic state rather then a democratic one?
Does the insurgency just go away? Or will it gain in numbers as a whole group of people see that they will be ruled with little say in how that rule is applied.
Exactly. The strategies of the ballot and the bullet (or other forms of violence) have often worked together. As I note, this was certainly true in the case of Hitler and Mussolini:
http://hnn.us/blogs/entries/18567.html
Your point is well taken. However, Casey is sounding an optimistic beat on when most US troops would pull out. That can only mean that he understands the political realities on the ground, where US troop presence is not only unacceptable to the Sunnis, but also to a lot of Shia. The next 9 months or so will be key because the US will have to accelerate the pace for which it trains Iraqi troops. It's not really a question of when the terrorism will stop, because it won't, but how much of an impact it will have on the political future of the country. Now that virtually all Iraqis accept the democratic process, Bush has an opportunity to train as many Iraqis as possible before the Parliaments kicks the US out while holding off the terrorists by exploiting their political divisions, namely the one between Sunni Iraqis and Shia Iranians. If that happens, then Bush might be able to get away with a huge mistake.
Classic 4GW. The political and the military are intertwined. Having forced the Adminstration to all but admit that they can win the war through force of arms, the guerrillas now interject themselves on the political process, a process, showing the U.S. and their Shia allies that they can not and will not be ignored.
San Jose Lady asks:
"What happens if the "majority" decides that Iraq should resemble an Islamic state rather then a democratic one?"
In my opinion its much more about power and control of wealth than it is about democracy vs theocracy. Democracy has little to offer unless it is directly connected to providing a competent government, individual freedom, and economic well being. Theocracy at least has the advantage of enhancing the religious faith for those who have little else but their faith - and many Iraqis have little else.
Whether wearing the shield of theocracy or democracy, the majority Shiites will persue total political control of all non-Kurd Iraq. In a little while they will have a large, trained, US equipped army and police forces at their disposal. Couple this muscle with their militias, throw away the rule books, and you have a prodigious force to overpower any opposition. Lest we forget, the Sunni insurgents have been battered continuosly and severely for the past 30 months.
The last phase of US military involvement in Iraq may well be defending the Sunnis against the Shiites.
You are right, of course, Professor Cole. In fact, I believe it almost goes w/o saying that the election doesn't betoken a cessation of the civil conflict. If anything, the predictable regional and sectarian voting results indidicate that the ballot box is another way to carry on the conflict, albeit a preferable & less bloody one.
I would love to be wrong about my pessimism.
Prof. Cole, do you have the link for this?
Really the only true solution is through politics. But there is the occupation and the only way that will end is with weapons..."
It is true that many Sunnis voted not only get rid of the Americans but to also get rid of the Shiite-dominated government. It is also true that the political and military struggle can continue simultaneously, however, it is instructive that Sunnis even came out to vote, because implicitly they recognized that they have to take part in the new Iraq. That they want to change the current government is a healthy sign that they see good in trying to do so electorally. In other words, they are talking, and voting, and in so doing breaking away from the Jihadists and Baathists who called on them not to vote and vowed retribution if they did. The Iraqi Islamic Army (insurgent group) came out to protect voters from these other groups thereby driving a wedge in the insurgency. Does that mean we win? No, but it is a good step in the right direction.
The Iraqi elections cat
As we know, the Iraqi elections are completely unobservable for outsiders because of heavy violence. In fact, these observers may need to kill quite a number of voters if they want to stay alive!
This means that Iraqi election violations are exactly like Schroedinger's cat. This cat is famous for being both alive and dead at the same tine because there is no way to observe its actual state.
However, now there is international standard that Iraqi elections cat is alive and well regardless of anything.
1. AJ. Iraq’s election "met global standards"
"The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq is to be commended on the way it has performed its role under the difficult circumstances prevailing in Iraq," said Paul Dacey, spokesman for the international observers.
Note: AJ has changed the title of this article to "Warning of factional fighting following Iraq's poll"
2. Wiki on Schrödinger's cat
I don't recall ever puutting this quotation in my comment: "Really the only true solution is through politics. But there is the occupation and the only way that will end is with weapons..."
I have no idea how it got included w/ my comment or even what it means.
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