The Guerrillas who Came in from the Cold
Al-Hayat [Ar.]: Sources close to the guerrilla groups in Iraq told the pan-Arab, Saudi-backed London daily, al-Hayat that new disputes have exploded between it and the organization "al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia" led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, after he carried out last Thursday's bombings in Karbala and Ramadi. Dozens of Shiite and Sunni civilians were killed. The Iraqi guerrilla groups told al-Hayat that they would not unite with the Zarqawi group, as a result.
The Iraqi guerrilla groups say that they only attack the Occupation forces and avoid attacks on civilians, whereas Zarqawi deliberately targets the latter, having adopted a policy of launching a war against the Shiites. His group rarely tangles with the Americans, al-Hayat says, whereas the Iraqi guerrillas killed 5 Americans over the weekend and shot down a Blackhawk helicopter near Tal Afar. [This is the first claim I know of by the ex-Baathists to have shot down the helicopter.]
[Cole: Since there are too few foreign fighters under Zarqawi to account for all the attacks on civilians around the country, I conclude that a lot of them are actually carried out by the Neo-Baathists or Iraqi Salafis, who then blame them on Zarqawi. They thus get to pose as national heroes with clean hands. And Zarqawi gets to boast about being ubiquitous. And Dick Cheney gets to threaten us with al-Qaeda in Iraq (there was no al-Qaeda operating in Iraq before Cheney opened up the possibility by invading the country). So everyone is happy with this lie. But it isn't a plausible one. All this is not to say that there aren't tensions between Zarqawi's people and the ex-Baath captains in the provinces.]
Iraqi guerrillas were especially upset about the bombing of potential police recruits in Ramadi, since some of the men belonged to the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement. The guerrillas had given them permission to enlist under a secret agreement they had reached with the Americans via the mediation of tribal chieftains, stipulating that the guerrillas would dominate the security services, the police and army in the Sunni Arab provinces, as an element in an over-all settlement. The guerrillas would be able to place their men in the security services of Anbar, Salahuddin and Ninevah provinces. In return for their accepting this deal, the Sunni Arab guerrillas would also get the release of their commanders from American prisons, along with the release of some Baathist prisoners from the former regime. (Saddam and some of his worst henchmen are excluded from this deal.)
If this agreement shows signs of working out, the two sides will sign a wide-ranging formal political agreement. The conference planned for Baghdad to continue the work of the Cairo conference last fall is part of the negotiating plann.
Meanwhile an internet posting of audio claiming to be the voice of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi called on the Iraqi Islamic Party (Sunni) to reject the political process rather than joining it. Guerrillas have killed IIP workers.
US troops were used to arrest an Iraqi journalist working on a story for a British news organization about corruption in defense contracts in Iraq. This is very troubling on all sorts of levels. US troops do not have a Status of Forces agreement with Iraq and do not have a constitutional right to arrest civilians without a warrant. And, the US military should not be harassing journalists reporting on contract fraud.
Will blog more Monday afternoon

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10 Comments:
This from the Reuters story on the Interior Ministry suicide bombings today:
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A ceremony celebrating the 84th anniversary of the formation of the Iraqi police force was taking place at the police academy next door to the ministry at the time of the blasts about 500 meters (yards) away.
Among dignitaries attending were the U.S. ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad, and the Iraqi defense and interior ministers.
U.S. military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Barry Johnson, who was at the ceremony, said the attack on the ministry did not interrupt the parade.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-01-09T140045Z_01_ARM933744_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAQ-BLASTS.xml
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Does Lt. Johnson speak for the Bush administration in noting that human devastation and anarchy will not impede the important business of PR and pageantry? On another note, this is the 2nd or 3rd time recently that Khalilzad has been on the periphery of an attack. Is he a target, or is this just coincidental?
Richard James
How creditable is the Al Hayat account of an arrangement giving the nationalist guerrilla faction effective control of the Sunni region of the country? If this kind of settlement is being negotiated, it's a very, very important step. Why hasn't the mainstream English-language press picked this up?
Al-Hayat must be getting Lincoln dollars for that article.
Op-ed in today's L.A. Times says likely outcome for Iraq is military coup, return of a strongman. Would be interested in your thoughts, Juan.
Op-ed in today's L.A. Times says likely outcome for Iraq is military coup, return of a strongman. Interested in your thoughts, Juan.
Thanks for the analysis on the arabic source this morning. You help us all bridge the language gap with your expertise.
Since there are too few foreign fighters under Zarqawi to account for all the attacks on civilians around the country, I conclude that a lot of them are actually carried out by the Neo-Baathists or Iraqi Salafis, who then blame them on Zarqawi. (....)
Who says that Zarqawi fighters have to be foreigners ? He may have found followers among Iraqis as well. I don't think that the fact there are few foreigners fighting the guerrilla in Iraq is a sufficient proof to accuse the Iraqi resistance of deleberately targetting civilians.
So everyone is happy with this lie. But it isn't a plausible one. All this is not to say that there aren't tensions between Zarqawi's people and the ex-Baath captains in the provinces.
On the other hand, pretending that the Iraqi resistance is deliberately targetting civilians is also an easy way to smear the resistance against the US occupation. Very few is known about the different movements involved in the guerrilla/resistance. It seems to be composed of many different groups, more or less loosely linked together and it's not clear how far their actions are coordinated. On your day to day comments you tend to classify the guerrilla in two caricatural groups : the fundamentalists Salafists of Zarqawi and the Ex-Baathists or Neo-Baathists "thugs". Implicitly your comments seem to exclude the existence of an honorable resistance to the US occupation, one founded on the positive values of the initial Baath party, a mixture of pan-arabism and socialism.
For more analysis about the risks to Iraq's academia and the on-going war for "hearts and minds..."
Don't forget this post at Alive in Baghdad about the recent raid at the Umm Al Qura Mosque:
http://www.aliveinbaghdad.org/ai...org/aib/? p=3018
or today's post about the plight of academia in Iraq:
http://www.aliveinbaghdad.org/ai...org/aib/? p=3019
The problem in trying to pin down a number on the insurgents and Zarqawi's group is that one has to factor in the constant recruitment that is feeding these militias...
For instance, the early predictions by the U.S. authorities on the number of Iraqi insurgents stood at between 5,000 and 15,000, and these predictions later jumped up to 50,000, but with no explanation of the recruitment factor...
Without that recruitment factor, one might see a repeat of the Vietnam era body-counts, wherein the U.S. military's official figures had killed off all the anti-American forces by their count in 1969, and yet the attacks continued...
Bravo professor Cole! Better late than never! It's good that you have brought out in the open the condemnation of Zarqawi by The Sunnis, especially after the bombings in Ramadi, and the rift that is widening between these two parts of the insurgency. However, I still find it hard to understand, why you continue to be a "purveyor" of "this lie" of Cheney and of all the other PRESUMED lies of the Administration. Also, to insinuate an equation between the lies of Zarqawi with the hypothetical lies of Cheney, is rather tasteless.
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