Top 10 Challenges Facing the US in the Middle East, 2008

10. Helping broker a deal in Lebanon between the March 14 Movement and the Shiites so that a new president can be elected and a national unity government can be formed.

Lebanon's economy was badly damaged by the Israeli war on the poor little country in summer of 2006. Tourism is a big part of that economy, and is being hurt by the continued political instability. Given historically high oil prices, Iran will probably make $56 billion from petroleum sales this year. That gives it lots of carrots to hand out in Lebanon. If the Lebanese were better off, foreign oil money would not be as important to them. Likewise, the country's poverty breeds social ills. Hizbullah militiamen might be harder to find if there was well-paying work for young men in the south. The dire poverty of Palestinians in camps such as Nahr al-Bared near Tripoli has made them open to predations by Mafia-like groups linked to al-Qaeda. Just a couple of weeks ago, Lebanese security broke up a plot to blow up churches in Zahle on the part of a small group of jihadis. An economically flourishing Lebanon would be less likely to be beset by these ills. The Levant is not that far away from the US or its major interests, and it is very unwise to allow the pathological situation in Lebanon to fester. A prosperous, healthy Lebanon is good for US security and is less likely to become the cat's paw of regional powers hostile to US interests.

9. The US should exercise its good offices to encourage continued dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The capture of Baghdad by the Shiites and the ethnic cleansing of most Sunnis from it have set the stage for a big Sunni-Shiite battle for the capital as soon as the US troops get out of the way. It is absolutely essential to Gulf security, and to American energy security, that Saudi Arabia and Iran not be drawn into a proxy Sunni-Shiite war in Iraq. Keeping in close contact with each other and with Iraqis of the other sect is the best way for them to avoid a replay of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Those in the Bush administration who dream of an Israeli-Saudi alliance against Iran are playing with fire, a fire that is likely to boomerang on the US. If the Persian Gulf goes up any further in flames, the resulting unprecedentedly high petroleum prices will likely finally produce a bad impact on the US economy. Instead, the US should be attempting to bring Iran in from the cold, now that the NIE has absolved it of nuclear-weapons ambitions.

8. Congress should expand funding for, and guarantee the future of, the Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point. Its researchers do among the very best jobs of analyzing the writings and activities of the Salafi Jihadis, and so of combatting them. Few government institutions are as effective. If the US government were serious about the threat of terrorism, I would not even have to make this plea. Of course, if Bush and Cheney had really cared about the threat of al-Qaeda, they would have gone after it and gotten Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri rather than rushing off on a fool's errand in Iraq.

7. The US must repair its tattered relations with Turkey. Turkey has been a NATO ally for decades and Turkish troops fought alongside American ones in the Korean War. Turkey stood with the US in the Cold War and gave the US bases on its soil. As a secular country, it is an ally in the struggle against the Salafi Jihadis, for which even religious Turks have contempt. Turkey has among the more promising economies in the Middle East, among non-oil states, and is attracting billions in foreign investment. The US has for some strange reason stiffed Turkey several times in the past decade. The Clinton administration promised Turkey a billion dollars in restitution for the monies it lost during the Gulf War, and then Congress refused to appropriate the money. More recently, the US has unleashed a virulent and violent Kurdish nationalism by allying with Massoud Barzani in Iraq. Barzani in turn has given safe harbor to guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), who have been going over the border and killing Turks, then retreating to Iraq. The Bush administration has tried to resolve this probably by helping the Turks bombard PKK positions inside Iraq, but that is not ideal. Instead, the US should put economic and other pressure on Barzani to expel the PKK from Iraq.

6. The US must keep the pressure on Pervez Musharraf to hold free and fair, early elections in Pakistan. The elections probably cannot be held on Jan. 8, as planned, because of the extensive turmoil and destruction of polling stations and ballots during the past few days. But they should not be postponed past March 1. Musharraf's own legitimacy has collapsed, and he is in danger of becoming a Shah of Iran figure, hated by his own people and driven from office. Such a scenario could be very bad for the United States. That is why Joe Biden is right and John McCain is wrong when the latter warns against dumping Musharraf. Why cannot the American Right learn that backing the wrong horse is often worse than not having a horse in the first place?

5. The US and NATO have to stop doing search and destroy missions in Afghanistan. The Pushtun tribespeople are never going to put up with tens of thousands of foreign troops in their country, and, indeed, in their underwear drawers. Search and destroy missions just multiply feuds with local people. The NATO and US military missions in Afghanistan have to be redefined so that they are not simply putting down tribes for the central government. The best Afghan central governments have ruled by playing the tribes off against one another, not by trying to crush them. The solutions in Afghanistan are political and economic. More reconstruction needs to be done. Farmers need aid to be weaned off poppies. Forced eradication of poppy crops appears to be behind a lot of the "Taliban resurgence," which actually often looks to me from a distance like angry farmers taking revenge for the destruction of their livelihoods.

4. The US must facilitate provincial elections in Iraq. They are arguably more important than any other step. They would solve a number of important problems.

The Sunni Arab provinces of Al-Anbar, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Diyala have unrepresentative governments (Diyalah, 60% Sunni, is ruled by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a hard line Shiite group!) The Sunni Arab parties declined to run in January, 2005, and there have been no subsequent provincial elections. Representative Sunni provincial governments could negotiate from a greater position of strength with the federal government of Shiite Dawa Party leader and prime minister Nuri al-Maliki. Some of the Awakening Councils members, who are self-appointed, might get elected and so gain greater legitimacy.

Without legitimate provincial governments in the Sunni Arab provinces, it is hard to see how the US can hope to withdraw troops and turn over security to locals, as Gen. Petraeus had planned to do in Mosul this year.

In the south, Basra needs new elections because its provincial government saw a major division this year, leading to an ISCI-led vote of no confidence in the governor, who is from the Islamic Virtue Party. But then the governor refused to step down! Ineffective governance in oil-rich Basra, which contains the country's only major ports, is bad for the whole country. In some other southern provinces, such as Diwaniya, a more representative provincial government might make for more social peace.

What I am saying now is not new, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen. Petraeus have repeatedly called for such elections. I am saying, now is the time to make a big push for them. If the US starts drawing down troops this year, it will make it harder to hold elections, since the Iraqi security forces probably cannot keep the voters dafe. If the US leaves behind the current provincial governments, as with Diyala, Diwaniya and Basra in particular, it is probably leaving behind provincial civil wars.

3. The US Congress must allocate substantial funds, on the order of $1 billion or more, for Iraqi refugee relief in Syria and Jordan. UNO relief funds are running out. Iraqis' own savings are running out. Children are not in school and are going hungry. People are being exploited, including young girls forced into prostitution. A majority of the 1.5 million Iraqis in Syria went there in 2007, and almost all of them have been forced out of Baghdad and other areas because of the political instability that the United States unleashed in their country. The surge is being touted as a victory in the US press, but it seems to have displaced 700,000 Iraqi civilians! The US is spending $15 billion a month on the Iraqi and Afghanistan Wars. It can afford $1 billion a year for refugee relief. This is our responsibility. How future generations of Iraqis view the United States will in part depend on whether we do this. I ask all Americans to write your congressional representatives and press them on this humanitarian issue.

2. The Bush administration should expend all of its remaining political capital in the region to have the Israelis return the Golan Heights to Syria. The Golan was captured in 1967. By the United Nations Charter, countries may not permanently grab the territory of their neighbors. The Syrians will have to agree to keep the Golan a demilitarized zone, with UNO blue helmets patrolling as a safeguard. In return, Syria would have to agree to cease backing Palestinian militants and would have to play a positive role in creating a Palestinian state. Damascus would also have to work to restore social peace in Lebanon. Such a deal might help to detach Syria from its alliance with Iran. That in turn would weaken Hizbullah. This deal would be good for Israeli security, and if it helped speed up the creation of a Palestinian state, might even keep Israel from falling into the Apartheid situation that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert recently said he fears.

1. The US must insist that the Israeli siege of Gaza must be lifted. A third of Palestinians killed by Israel this year were innocent civilians. The agricultural sector is being destroyed because farmers cannot export their goods owing to the Israeli blockade. Food, water, essential medicines are all being denied to civilian populations, including children. If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is so worried about Israel being seen as an Apartheid state, he should release Gazans from their penitentiary and stop deploying collective punishment against civilians.
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McClatchy: Edwards, Romney Lead in Iowa

McClatchy has a new Iowa poll out, taken Dec. 26-28. It shows that there was no spike among Iowa voters in concern for international affairs or terrorism in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan.

The poll shows that Mitt Romney has a significant lead, 27% to 23% for former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, whose momentum has slowed, and that Huckabee has lost ground even among evangelicals as the spotlight has been put on him.

This is a really small poll, of 400 Democrats and 400 Republicans, with a massive plus or minus margin of error, of 5%. So I don't think Edwards' one-point lead in this poll means much. But that the race is tight is obvious enough. And, it is likely that the finding of no increased concern about international affairs or terrorism is solid. If so, that does help Edwards. Also, the article argues that Edwards' numbers have shown an upward trend, and that he could benefit if the second-tier candidates don't reach 15%, since voters could then turn to someone else, and he is the second choice for a lot of, e.g., Richardson supporters.
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Bilawal, Zardari, Fahim to lead PPP; Will Contest Jan. 8 Polls

The Pakistan People's Party movers and shakers have annointed Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, 19, the son of slain Benazir Bhutto, as its next leader. He will continue his studies at Oxford while his father, Asif Zardari, acts as regent. The PPP will run Makhdum Amin Fahim as its candidate for prime minister, and will contest the January 8 elections (apparently they are counting on a sympathy vote, and may also be afraid the country will slip into martial law if the civil disturbances continue). The other major party with grass roots, the Muslim League-N, led by Nawaz Sharif, had said it would boycott the elections. But Sharif said Saturday he would reconsider the boycott if the PPP decided to go ahead.

Fahim is what is called in Pakistan a "feudal landlord," with a BA in political science from the provincial Sindh University. He has been parliamentary leader of the PPP in recent years. The Pakistan People's Party was created in the late 1960s by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and has all along been led by that family and its retainers. "Makhdum," Fahim's ancestral title, means "served" and is a term applied in South Asia to a Sufi leader. Great medieval Sufis were given lands to support them by Muslim rulers like the Mughals, so that in many instances their descendants are big landowners, and the family's spiritual vocation has disappeared. Fahim is a secular politician, and like a lot of the Pakistani elite, likes a good stiff drink of bourbon.

The PPP during the past two decades has been internally split between a rising middle class urban leadership and the old landowning families. An alternative to Fahim would have been the smart Punjabi lawyer, Aitzaz Ahsan, who was jailed for protesting the dismissal of the justices, and is admired by a lot of the urban activists. Despite Benazir's own education abroad, her instincts (and now those of her widower) was always to "run the feudals," and to depend on the landlords' ability to get out the vote among their own (largely illiterate and repressed) peasants.

The PPP leadership had a chance to become the party of the future and to galvanize the new middle class, which has spearheaded the challenge to Musharraf over his gutting of the judiciary. It has instead run the feudals again. Fahim seems to me unlikely to generate the sort of excitement that Aitzaz Ahsan would have. But then, the PPP will probably get a big sympathy vote. Once in power, however, unless it pursues policies that benefit urban classes, it will find itself eclipsed.

Barnett Rubin's WSJ op-ed on Bhutto's assassination is now available in full at our group Global Affairs blog.
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Pakistan Riots Continue; Clinton: 'An inside job?' Rehman: "A Cover-up"

Violence continued in Pakistan on Saturday, as did a virtual shut-down of the country, with most shops and businesses shuttered.

In the US, Sen. Hillary Clinton provoked controversy when she said, according to Newsday: ' "There are those saying that al-Qaida did it. Others are saying it looked like it was an inside job -- remember Rawalpindi is a garrison city," she said. '

She added that Pakistan's

' "feudal landowning leadership," led by Musharraf, has protected al-Qaida to preserve its tenuous grip on power. '

The Pakistani elite has a lot of landlords in it, but has diversified. The officer corps is no longer primarily from the landlord class. There are new industrialists and entrepreneurs.

The reason that the military has been reluctant to finish off the Pakistani Taliban in the north (which in turn hosts some al-Qaeda remnants) is because the Taliban are a useful way of projecting Pakistani power into southern Afghanistan. The Pakistani security establishment views the Karzai government as too beholden to Tajiks and as too close diplomatically to India and Iran. The Pakistani military thus has the difficult balancing act of containing the Pakistani Taliban inside Pakistan (so that it does not spill over onto Peshawar or Islamabad) but keeping it sufficiently alive that it can be deployed against Afghanistan.

In any case, it seems pretty clear that if Clinton wins the presidency, she is going to have bad relations with Pervez Musharraf, assuming he is still around in 2009.

Meanwhile, Clinton's suspicions were underscored by Bhutto aide Sherry Rehman, who said that she saw bullet wounds in Bhutto's head. She disputed a government report that Bhutto died from being thrown against a lever of her sun roof by the blast of a suicide bomb. She told CNN, "It's beginning to look like a cover up to me . . ." Apparently PPP leaders suspect that Bhutto's bullet wounds might point back to involvement by Musharraf's security forces (did he use a standard police or army firearm?). A mere suicide bombing would apparently be easier to reconcile with the government's allegation that a jihadi group was behind the assassination. The warring narratives about Bhutto's death therefore appear to have a CSI sort of forensic concern behind them. Different physical evidence would point in different directions as to perpetrator.

Mobs roamed Karachi for a third straight day on Saturday, continuing to set fires and attack federal government property. AFP reports,, "On the second day of official mourning for the slain opposition leader, most people were unable to buy food or petrol, with almost all shops, fuel stations, banks and offices closed down." In Karachi, food remained scarce, with vegetable markets closed and farmers unable to bring shipments in from the countryside.

The province of Sindh also continued to suffer disturbances on Saturday.

Over 40 persons have been killed in the three days of violence throughout the country, and scores injured.


In Peshawar, PPP wokers continued to stage protests. Most of the city was closed, and the streets were deserted except for the protesters.

An angry crowd set fire to the cable company, leaving Lahore, Peshawar and other major cities without access to the internet. International phone calls also became harder to make.

The Pakistan People's Party will meet Sunday afternoon Pakistan time to choose a successor to Bhutto and to decide whether to contest elections, and when.
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OSC: Bin Ladin Vows Jihad for 'Liberation of Entire Palestine' After Iraq

The USG Open Source Center summarizes and partially translates the new audio release by Usama Bin Laden. He urges a focus on Iraq and Israel, and he praises the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi for having attacked the Shiites. He also pledges to attack Israel and accused HAMAS of selling out. Bin Laden sounds increasingly desperate, appearing to realize that the Iraqi Sunnis have turned against the Salafi Jihadis who often admire him. The Palestinians have worked hard to keep al-Qaeda out of Palestine, and Israeli security has forestalled effective al-Qaeda attacks in Israel. That is a hard target, not like the US in 2001, and he is likely to be shown up as an ineffective braggart if he starts taking on the hardy Israelis. In fact, he seems beside himself with frustration that the Arab League has offered full recognition to Israel for a return to 1967 borders. Bin Laden continues the stupid policy of attacking the Shiites, both Hizbullah in Lebanon and those of Iraq, thus dividing the Muslims. Muslim publics have increasing turned critical of tactics like suicide bombings. And Bin Laden's own popularity has been plummeting among most Muslims. Fawaz Gerges has written about how a lot of al-Qaeda members are furious at him and Ayman al-Zawahiri for bringing the full wrath of a superpower down on them, scattering them from Qandahar, forcing them to live as fugitives, and virtually destroying the organization.

FYI -- Bin Ladin Vows Jihad for 'Liberation of Entire Palestine' After Iraq
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Saturday, December 29, 2007

On 29 December, a participant in a jihadist website posted several links to a 56-minute audio message by Al-Qa'ida Organization leader Usama Bin Ladin entitled "The Way to Foil Plots" produced by the Al-Sahab Media Production Organization, the media arm of Al-Qa'ida Organization.

The audio recording plays against the background of a still image of Bin Ladin and a map of Iraq.

Bin Ladin begins his message by addressing the Islamic nation in general, the "patient and steadfast people in Iraq's fronts and fortress towns," the "leaders of mujahidin groups and shura councils," and "the chieftains of free and proud tribes."

Bin Ladin says: "My talk to you is about the plots that are being hatched by the Zionist-Crusader alliance, led by America, in cooperation with its agents in the region, to steal the fruit of blessed jihad in the land of two rivers, and what we should do to foil these plots. It is no secret that America is using all military and political means to entrench its troops in Iraq. Having realized its military failure, it stepped up its political and media efforts to deceive Muslims. One of its wicked schemes was to tempt the tribes and buy their allegiance to form the councils of dissension, which they termed as awakening councils."

He notes that "many" tribes refused to form such councils. He beseeches God to help these tribes to adhere to this stand. He accuses late Abd-al-Sattar Abu-Rishah, founder of Al-Anbar Awakening Council, of "betraying the religion and nation."

Bin Ladin adds: "Recruiting hypocrite chieftains of tribes is one axis. America, along with its agents in the region, is seeking through the other axis to form a new government that is loyal to it, like the Gulf countries' governments, instead of Al-Maliki government. This government will also be called a national unity government."

He says: "In the name of the homeland and patriotism, the Crusaders are being strengthened in the land of two rivers too by installing a government that is agent to America, a government which agrees in advance to the existence of major US bases in the land of Iraq and gives the Americans whatever they want of Iraq's oil according to the oil law to continue to subjugate it and maintain absolute hegemony over the rest of the countries of the region."

He criticizes the "leader of the so-called Islamic Party" for calling for signing a security agreement with the United States.

Bin Ladin calls on the "sane people" to learn a lesson from the fate of HAMAS Movement's leadership. He says: "It (HAMAS leadership) relinquished its religion and did not achieve worldly gains when it obeyed the ruler of Riyadh and others by entering the national unity state and respecting the unjust international charters. Will the honest ones in HAMAS correct its course?"

Bin Ladin says: "Just as the rulers of Riyadh tempted the leaders of HAMAS, they are seeking to tempt the mujahidin groups in Iraq. They allow some groups to confidently move in the Gulf countries to receive support, but not official support, which these groups reject. The support is channeled under the banner of raising donations by some unofficial scholars and preachers. Many of them, however, are loyal to the state and seek to implement its policy in Iraq by pulling the rug from under honest mujahidin's feet. The mission of these scholars and preachers is to convince the leaders of these groups of the same previous condition; that is, accepting a national unity government, in addition to urging them to air tendentious propaganda against the Islamic State of Iraq and fight it if possible. This is one of the secrets of the fierce military and media campaign against the state."

He accuses the "ruler of Riyadh' of being the "main US agent in the region."

He hails late Abu-Mus'ab al-Zarqawi for exposing and fighting Shiite militias in Iraq.

He calls for unity among "all honest mujahidin" in Iraq to "foil all plots."

Bin Ladin cites as an example "an effort in the past to unify the leaders of Afghan mujahidin."

Bin Ladin goes on to say that "those leaders are tradesmen who care about their leadership and give priority to their personal interests over the cause."

He goes on to speak about the Northern Alliance, led by (former Afghan President Borhanoddin) Rabbani and (Abd-al-Rasul) Sayyaf, which has become a helper and a supporter to America against the mujahidin in Afghanistan.

He adds that the same applies to Iraq where "the Islamic Party and some groups, which are involved in fighting, support America against Muslims" saying that this is "outright infidelity."

He urges the Iraqi Islamic Party and other factions that are involved in fighting "to disavow their leaders and correct the course of their parties and groups", saying that "if this is not possible, they should leave those hypocrite leaders and join honest mujahidin in the Land of the Two Rivers."
He adds: "America exerted great efforts in the past to convince Afghan leaders through the governments of Riyadh and Islamabad to join a national unity government with communists and secularists who came from the west." He goes on to say that "the government of Riyadh continues until this day to carry out the same malicious roles with many Islamic action leaders and commanders of mujahidin in our nation."

He goes on to speak at length about the reasons behind the Afghan leaders' failure to achieve unity and urges the mujahidin to be wise and consider matters thoroughly before pledging allegiance to their leaders.

He urges the mujahidin not to be misled by the names of parties or their leaders. He says that Sayyaf was one of the most prominent leaders of mujahidin, but he helped America against Muslims. He adds that the same applies to Rabbani and Ahmad Shah Mas'ud.
He condemns the leaders who committed one of the "nullifiers of Islam" by supporting "the infidels against Muslims."

Bin Ladin concludes by saying that "the brother mujahidin, especially in the Shura councils, should not yield to the excuses of the amirs of groups by obstructing unity and accord."

He adds that "Muslims were pleased when a number of the amirs of groups, which are fighting for the sake of God, and a number of chiefs of steadfast and mujahid tribes unified their stand under the banner of monotheism and pledged allegiance to honorable Shaykh Abu-Umar al-Baghdadi as amir of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI)."

Bin Ladin says: "The states that call themselves Muslim states are many. However, those with discerning know that they all lack the prerequisites that are regarded as the most important prerequisites of Muslim states, chief among which is upholding God's shari'ah, not to mention that the sovereignty of all of them is flawed, and that they all, without exception, cooperated, in one way or another, with America in the world war on Islam, which is a nullifier of one's Islam. Nonetheless, many people treat these states as if they were sovereign Muslim states. This treatment is religiously impermissible, given all that has been said."

Bin Ladin adds: "Had complete empowerment been a prerequisite of the establishment of an Islamic state at present, Islam would not have seen a state of its own. This is because everybody knows that given the huge military superiority of the adversaries, the latter can invade any country and topple its government, as happened in Afghanistan. They toppled the Ba'thist Iraqi Government. Nonetheless, the fall of the state is not the end of the world, nor does it mean that the Islamic community and the Islamic imam collapsed. As a matter of fact, jihad against the infidels should continue, as is happening in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia."

Bin Ladin argues that "complete empowerment" is not a prerequisite of making a pledge of allegiance to the imam, or of establishing an Islamic state. He adds that the leader to whom a pledge of allegiance is made should be obeyed. Bin Ladin says that repeated appeals were addressed to "the mujahidin leaders" urging them to get together. However, some of them failed to heed these appeals while some others heeded the appeals. He urges all jihadist groups to come together under one banner.
Bin Ladin says: "He who follows the local and global campaigns of infidelity can see that they are primarily targeted against the Islamic State of Iraq. For America is repeatedly carrying out campaigns, one after another, against the same city. As a matter of fact, there has been an ongoing campaign against the whole of Diyala for the past six months. The same holds true for Mosul and Salah al-Din. Other campaigns are being carried out by the army, the National Guard, and the police, not to mention other campaigns carried out by the Al-Sadr and Al-Hakim militias. Besides, all neighboring countries without exception are targeting the Islamic State of Iraq, not to mention the awakening councils, parties, and groups of dissension led by Tariq al-Hashimi, who betrayed the faith and the Ummah. This is to be added to the media campaigns aimed at misrepresenting the Islamic State of Iraq for which the Riyadh rulers, their scholars, and their media outlets are to blame."

Bin Ladin adds: "Amir Abu-Umar (al-Baghdadi) and his brothers are not of those who would bargain over their faith and accept half-solutions, or who would meet the enemies halfway. Rather, they come out openly with the truth and satisfy the Creator even if this were to result in angering the creatures." He adds that they refuse to pander to the governments of Muslim states.

Elaborating on this issue, Bin Ladin says: "Had the leaders of the Islamic State of Iraq joined hands with any neighboring state so that the latter may provide it with backing and support, as some groups and parties have done, the situation would have been different," as these groups and parties have huge budgets compared to the budget of the Islamic State of Iraq.

Bin Ladin condemns the acceptance by Hizballah Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 on Lebanon, which authorized the entry of "Crusader armies into Lebanese territory." He wonders: "Are people unaware that these armies are the other face of the US-Zionist alliance?" He adds: "Nonetheless, (Hizballah) Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah is deceiving people. He welcomed these armies in public and promised to facilitate their mission even though he knows that they were coming to protect the Jews and seal off the borders in the face of the honest mujahidin." He contends that Nasrallah did so to accommodate the wishes of the states backing him.
Bin Ladin says that the conduct of the "amirs of mujahidin" in Iraq is not known to many people, attributing this to "the circumstances and security requirements of the war." He adds: "However, I reckon that ignorance about the affairs of the amirs of the mujahidin in Iraq is harmless ignorance if they have been recommended by trusted, fair persons, such as Amir Abu-Umar (al-Baghdadi), who has been recommended by trusted, fair mujahidin. He was also recommended by Amir Abu-Mus'ab (al-Zarqawi), may God have mercy on him, and War Minister Abu-Hamzah al-Muhajir." Bin Ladin adds: "Refraining from pledging allegiance to one of the amirs of mujahidin in Iraq after their recommendation by trusted, fair persons under the pretext of not knowing their conduct leads to great evils, one of the gravest of which is obstructing the establishment of the great Muslim nation under one imam."

Concluding his statement, Bin Ladin says: "In conclusion, I assure Muslims in general and our people in the neighboring states in particular, that they will see nothing from the mujahidin but all that is good, God willing. We are your sons. We are defending the religion of the nation, and we are defending its sons. The Muslim victims who fall during the operations against the infidel Crusaders or their usurper agents are not the intended targets. God knows that we are deeply saddened when some Muslims fall victim. Yet, we hold ourselves responsible and seek God's forgiveness for that. We beseech God to have mercy on them and let Paradise be their final abode and to compensate their families and relatives. You must be aware that the enemy deliberately takes its positions among the Muslims to let them serve as human shields for it."
Bin Ladin then urges the militants to avoid common Muslims in their strikes. He says: "In fact, our enmity is with the agent rulers, to whom we give no assurances. Rather, we are seeking to topple them and to refer them to the Islamic judiciary. How can we assure them while they have befriended the enemies of the nation and have done this nation great harm? How can we assure them while they have mixed the law of humans with the law of God Almighty? How can we assure them while the path to the broadest front for the liberation of Palestine passes through the lands that are under their control? I assure our kinfolk in Palestine in particular that we will expand our jihad, God willing, and we will not recognize the Sykes-Picot borders or the rulers appointed by the colonialists. By God, we have not forgotten you after the 9/11 events. Will anyone forget his own family? However, after those blessed raids, which hit the head and heart of global infidelity, the biggest ally of the Zionist entity, America, we are now busy fighting it and its agents, especially in Iraq, Afghanistan, Islamic Magreb, and Somalia. If it is defeated along with its agents in Iraq, God willing, then soon will the legions of mujahidin march, in successive brigades, from Baghdad, Al-Anbar, Mosel, Diyala, and Salah al-Din to restore Hittin to us, God willing. We will not recognize a state for the Jews, not even on one inch of the land of Palestine, as did all the rulers of the Arabs when they adopted the initiative of the ruler of Riyadh years ago."

Bin Ladin adds: "Nor will we respect the international conventions recognizing the Zionist entity over the land of Palestine, as the HAMAS leadership did, or as stated by some Muslim Brotherhood leaders. It will be a jihad for the liberation of entire Palestine, from the river to the sea, God willing, joining hands with the sincere mu jahidin there from the cadres of HAMAS and other factions."
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OSC: Urdu Press Roundup on Reaction to Benazir Bhutto Assassination

The USG Open Source Center excerpts and paraphrases editorials in the major Urdu-language Pakistani newspapers concerning the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan: Urdu Press Roundup on Reaction to Benazir Bhutto Assassination
Pakistan -- OSC Summary
Saturday, December 29, 2007

Note: I decided to file the full text of this report at the Global Affairs blog (click on this link).
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Huckabee Obsesses about 660 Pakistani Aliens; Clinton's 5 Point Plan

Mike Huckabee is a smooth-talking, fanatical country preacher who has learned to make himself likeable on camera but who spews all kinds of hateful nonsense when among like-minded devotees.

The dark side of Huckabee, the anti-science and anti-gay side of Huckabee, and the anti-Palestinian genocidal side of Huckabee, are all much more dangerous than the incompetent fool side of Huckabee, but the latter is pretty dangerous, too.

The incompetent fool side was on full display in his remarks, apparently provoked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, about the alleged threat of illegal Pakistani immigration into the United States. He actually thundered about 660 persons, claiming that the Pakistanis came right after Latinos in the ranks of illegals. He also seemed to think that building a wall around Mexico would keep out Pakistanis (the illegals among whom likely mostly just overstayed their visas and landed at LaGuardia).

He actually repeated his gaffe when questioned by reporters:

' "I am making the observation that we have more Pakistani illegals coming across our border than all other nationalities except those immediately south of the border," he said, repeating the assertion he made to his audience earlier. "And in light of what is happening in Pakistan it ought to give us pause as to why are so many illegals coming across these borders." '

There are an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in the US. AP writes, "the Pew Hispanic Center said Mexicans make up 56 percent of illegal immigrants. An additional 22 percent come from other Latin American countries, mainly in Central America. About 13 percent are from Asia, and Europe and Canada combine for 6 percent." Even among the 1.5 million or so illegals from Asia, Chinese, Filipinos, Koreans, Vietnamese and others predominate. Pakistanis must be a vanishingly small proportion. Why even bring them up? Is it possible that our country preacher is bigotted against Muslims?

Huckabee's first response to Benazir's assassination was to ask whether "martial law" would be "lifted." Martial law had not been declared, rather a constitutionally permissible "state of emergency" had been declared by Musharraf. He lifted it some time before Huckabee's remark.

Huckabee is a narrow-minded, bigotted and ignorant person, and I am quite sure that the American people have had enough of that sort of thing in the White House for a while. On the other hand, I certainly hope that he emerges as the Republican standard-bearer, because I think any Democratic candidate could make mincemeat of him once his bizarre views become public.

You contrast the absolute nonsensical drivel coming out of Huckabee's mouth with the following interview of Hillary Clinton by Wolf Blitzer on CNN's Situation Room on Friday, and Clinton's mature experience and careful, knowledgeable phrasing are like a silk purse to Huckabee's sow's ear:

' Wolf Blitzer: There are conflicting reports coming in from the Pakistani government right now about the cause of death, who may have been responsible; perhaps al Qaeda, maybe not. The bottom line: do you trust the Pakistani government right now to conduct a fair and full investigation so that all of us around the world will know who killed this woman and how she was killed?

Hillary Clinton: I don't think the Pakistani government at this time under President Musharraf has any credibility at all. They have disbanded an independent judiciary, they have oppressed a free press. Therefore, I’m calling for a full, independent, international investigation, perhaps along the lines of what the United Nations has been doing with respect to the assassination of Prime Minister Hariri in Lebanon. I think it is critically important that we get answers and really those are due first and foremost to the people of Pakistan, not only those who were supportive of Benazir Bhutto and her party, but every Pakistani because we cannot expect to move toward stability without some reckoning as to who was responsible for this assassination.

Therefore, I call on President Musharraf and the Pakistani government to realize that this is in the interests of Pakistan to understand whether or not it was al Qaeda or some other offshoot extremist group that is attempting to further destabilize and even overthrow the Pakistani government, or whether it came from within, either explicitly or implicitly, the security forces or the military in Pakistan. The thing I’ve not been able to understand, Wolf - I have met with President Musharraf, I obviously knew Benazir Bhutto and admired her leadership – is that President Musharraf, in every meeting I have had with him, the elites in Pakistan who still wield tremendous power plus the leadership of the military act as though they can destabilize Pakistan and retain their positions; their positions of privilege, their positions of authority. That is not the way it will work. I am really calling on them to recognize that the world deserves the answer; the Bhutto family deserves the answer, but this is in the best interest of the Pakistani people and the state of Pakistan.

Blitzer: Senator, just to be precise; you want a United Nations international tribunal, or commission of inquiry, whatever you want to call it, along the lines of the investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri?

HRC: There are other institutions that are international that have credibility, like INTERPOL and others. It doesn’t have to be the exact model of the Hariri investigation but it needs to be international, it needs to be independent, it needs to have credibility and nothing that would happen inside of Pakistan would. I’m reluctant to say it should be an American investigation where we send our law enforcement personnel, because I’m not sure that would have credibility for a different reason. So that’s why I’m calling for an independent international investigation.

Blitzer: This is a damning indictment of President Pervez Musharraf. Some are calling on him to step down, do you believe he should step down?

Clinton: What I believe is that he should meet certain conditions and quickly. We should immediately move to free and fair elections. Obviously, it’s going to take some time for Benazir Bhutto’s party to choose a successor. Nawaz Sharif has said that he won’t participate at this time. I believe again some kind of international support for free and fair elections in a timely manner would be incredibly important. If President Musharraf wishes to stand for election, then he should abide by the same rules that every other candidate will have to follow. We also want to see a resumption of the move toward an independent judiciary. I think that was a terrible mistake. This is an odd situation, Wolf. The people in the streets are wearing suits and ties, they are lawyers, they are professionals, they are the middle class of Pakistan, which really offers the very best hope for a stable, democratic country and that is in America’s interest, but more importantly, it is in the interest of the Pakistani people.

Blitzer: I think I understood what you were implying when you said a U.S. investigation probably wouldn’t have credibility for different reasons but explain to our viewers out there why you’re suggesting a U.S. investigation into the death of Benazir Bhutto probably wouldn’t have credibility either.

Clinton: I think it would politicize it at a time when what we want to do is, as much as possible, support the continuing move toward democracy. We need, frankly, an international tribunal to look into this where there can be a broad base of experts who are not aligned with any one country. Obviously I would certainly offer our expertise through the FBI and others to assist that tribunal. But I think it would be much better for it to be independent and impartial and be seen as that. Part of what our challenge here is, is to convince the Pakistani people themselves and particularly the business elite, the feudal elite, the military elite that they are going down a very dangerous path. That this path leads to their losing their positions, their authority, their obvious leadership now. Therefore we need to help them understand what is in their interest and that of course includes President Musharraf.

Blitzer: Over the years, since 9/11, the United States has provided the Pakistani military with some $10 billion. Will you as a United States Senator continue to vote for funding of these billions of dollars going to the Pakistani military?

Clinton: No, and I’m very pleased that finally the Congress began to put some conditions on the aid. I do not think that we should be giving the Musharraf government a blank check and that’s exactly what the Bush Administration has done. Even after Musharraf cracked down on the judiciary and the press and the pro-democracy movement in Pakistan, President Bush was saying he was a reliable ally. Well, I don’t think he’s a reliable ally when he undermines democracy and when he has failed to reign in the Al Qaeda Islamist elements in his own country.

So I think we do need to condition aid. I would do it differently. I would say, look, we want to know very specifically what accountability you’re going to offer to us for the military aid that we believe should be going in the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The Department of Defense is equally unaccountable with the money that passes through them.

I’d like to see more of our aid shifted toward building civil society. I’ve been calling for this. I have legislation that is bi-partisan, Education for All that is particularly aimed -- I’ve talked to President Musharraf about the necessity for us to raise the literacy rate, to reach out with health care and education that would help the Pakistani people to really concentrate on civil society.

We should be working with these rather heroic lawyers and others who are in the streets demanding democracy instead of giving the Bush blank check to President Musharraf and the military.

Blitzer: But aren’t you afraid, Senator, that as imperfect and as flawed as President Musharraf is, there’s a possibility whoever comes to replace him in this large Muslim country with a nuclear arsenal already, heavy al Qaeda presence, a resurgent Taliban - that the alternative could be even worse from the U.S. perspective?

Clinton: Of course. We all fear that and that’s why we need to take remedial action immediately. When I came back from my last meeting with President Musharraf in January of this year, I called the White House, I asked that they appoint an American envoy, a presidential envoy. I suggested that a retired military leader who could relate to President Musharraf on a one-to-one basis and could shuttle back and forth between President Musharraf and President Karzai because there were a lot of tensions.

And also perhaps serve as a kind of support to President Musharraf, military man to military man, about what it takes to really move toward democracy that President Musharraf in every conversation I’ve ever had with him has given lip-service to. But I don’t think the Bush Administration has frankly asked enough of President Musharraf, has provided the right kind of assistance, has given the support needed.

We have this difficult problem in the military. We have a lot of the senior leadership that we have relationships with, we don’t have those relationships for a lot of reasons with the junior leadership. I just think we have given a blank check under President Bush to President Musharraf and the results are frankly not in the interests of the United States, they are not in the interest of Pakistan and they are certainly not in the interest of the region. We should begin to try to have an ongoing process that includes India and Afghanistan. A lot of what you see happening in Pakistan is driven by the very strong concern coming out of the Pakistani government toward Afghanistan, toward India.

We have really had a hands-off approach. We have said, okay, fine, you be our partner in going after Al Qaeda, we’ll turn a blind eye to everything else. That has undermined our position. I believe Pakistan is in a weaker position to combat terrorism today then they were after 9/11, in large measure because of the failed policies of George Bush. '

Barack Obama objected to Clinton's call for a UNO special inquiry, saying that "It is important to us to not give the idea that Pakistan is unable to handle its own affairs." While Obama's concern for Pakistani sovereignty is admirable, Clinton's suggestion of a United Nations commission would, I think, be quite popular in Pakistan except in military circles. So it isn't about national sovereignty. And it is certainly the case that the Pakistani public would be more likely to believe a UNO commission than it would to believe Pervez Musharraf on this issue.

John Edwards said much the same things as Clinton with less detail. But lets face it, she had actually been to Pakistan and her remarks show that having been First Lady really does count for foreign policy experience, since it allowed her to address this crisis with aplomb and perspicuity. Obama's campaign came off looking tacky when it tried to suggest that Clinton's Iraq vote somehow got Benazir killed.
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Benazir Bhutto Buried; Riots, Rallies Continue in Pakistan on Friday; Imran Khan: Musharraf Must Resign

Benazir Bhutto was buried in her ancestral village near Larkana in Sindh Province on Friday. Her widower, Asif Ali Zardari and 19-year-old son Bilawal helped lower her coffin into the grave. The Pakistani government predictably blamed the assassination on "al-Qaeda," but Hillary Clinton and other US politicians rightly called for an independent United Nations commission to look into the crime, since the credibility of the military dictatorship right now is, let us say, low.

Opposition politician Imran Khan on Friday called for Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to step down. He said while on a visit to India, "You cannot win the war on terror if you lose the battle to gain people's hearts and minds . . . Musharraf is a problem, not our solution." He also implied that the Bush administration had been in error to associate itself so publicly with Ms. Bhutto's return to Pakistan, suggesting that that link made it more likely she would be killed by extremists.

Sindh Province remained largely closed down on Friday, as violent protests continued, with buildings set ablaze and sniping. The Pakistan army began deploying troops to show the flag, but they appear not to have risked clashing with protesters and imposed no curfew. There were a lot of attacks on government offices and government officials, apparently because Pakistan People's Party activists believe that the government of Pervez Musharraf was in some way responsible for Ms. Bhutto's death. The News details the violence:

"The charged workers and activists of the PPP continued protesting on the streets of Hyderabad on Friday since morning, setting scores of vehicles on fire and damaging public and private properties in the city. Angry protesters have blocked the Indus and the National Highways while the rail link was also affected because of firing and arson incidents in Hyderabad and adjoining areas. Firing incidents were also reported from various areas and at some places law-enforcement agencies scuffled with protesters to restrict their movement. The protesters set tyres on fire on various streets and also attacked the offices of union council Nazims in UC-16, UC-17 of Latifabad, UC Hatri, UC Seri, and UC Tando Fazal and torched some of the belongings of these offices. In Hyderabad city alone, the protesters ransacked the office of executive district officer for education, post master general office at Thandi Sarak, police check-posts and office of Sui Southern Gas Company. They also set on fire vehicles of the SSGC and also took out three vehicles parked at the residence of PML candidate Shahabuddin Husseini and set on fire five vehicles of the Hyderabad Electric Supply Company (Hesco) at Site area besides damaging other public and private properties. Reports said the protesters also attacked Tando Alam oil field in Hyderabad rural Taluka and set 15 vehicles and tankers on fire parked near its offices. Several shops were also set on fire in the district. "

Many residents of the major port city of Karachi remain stranded, without public transportation. Gas stations throughout Pakistan appear to have been closed, stranding motorists. Other Karachi residents lack essential supplies, as shops suddenly closed and have remained shuttered. Karachi industries (it is a major industrial city) have mostly ceased production, since workers have no way to get to the factories. Domestic flights from Karachi International Airport were cancelled, while international flights faced delays or cancellations, as well. The railway system in Sindh Province has been largely put out of commission by sabotage of cars, engines and rails, and won't be repaired for 20 days or so. Pakistani army troops deployed in several districts of Karachi, with orders to shoot to kill if they saw rioters or looters.

Quetta and Baluchistan were mostly closed for business on Friday, after the All Parties Democratic Movement called a sympathy strike in commemoration of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. The News writes,

"Sources said some infuriated mob damaged three banks and set ablaze town council offices of Tehsil Sohbutpur in the Jafarabad district after hearing the news of assassination. The protesters came out of the houses and staged demonstrations. Independent sources from Jafarabad said the protesters also torched official property and vehicles. Many vehicles were damaged on the National Highway, which remained blocked throughout the day. The protesters created hurdles on highways and set tyres ablaze. They pelted stones on vehicles and also resorted to aerial firing. Quetta was presenting a deserted look as soon as the news of the tragic incident spread here and the citizens mourned the death of Benazir Bhutto."

The Times of London reports that 4,000 Benazir supporters rallied in the northern Pushtun city of Peshawar, while in the southern Punjabi city of Multan, "about 7,000 people ransacked seven banks and a gas station and threw stones at police, who responded with tear gas."

To get a sense of the place names mentioned above, see this map.

With regard to Benazir's funeral, there was a strong sense of Sindhi nationalism in the air according to several press reports, with Sindhis complaining that only Sindhi prime ministers are assassinated, and some blaming other Pakistani ethnic groups for her death. Sindhis account for about 13% of the Pakistani population and predominate in the southeast of the country, but are probably the poorest ethnic group. They also have little representation in the powerful Pakistani army or officer corps. G. M. Syed led a Sindhi separatist movement until his death in 1995. The major city of Sindh, Karachi, is economically and demographically dominated by Muhajirs or Urdu-speakers whose forebears immigrated from India during the 1947 Partition. Pakistan's other major provinces are also dominated by a majority ethnicity. Thus, Baluchistan is mostly Baluch, the Northwest Frontier Province is mostly Pushtun, Punjab is mostly Punjabi, and Azad Kashmir is Kashmiri. Pakistan lost its Bengali east wing when Bangladesh became independent in 1971. (Those who think Iraq would be more stable with four or five ethnically-based provinces should look at Pakistan carefully.)

Barnett Rubin weighs in on the significance of Bhutto's assassination and the role of Muslim extremists at our joint Global Affairs blog and the WSJ.
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Mobs Rampage through Pakistani Cities; Cars, Banks, Gas Stations Torched Sharif's Party will Boycott Elections

My column, "With Bhutto gone, does Bush have a Plan B?" is online at Salon.com. Excerpt:

' Pakistan's future is now murky, and to the extent that this nation of 160 million buttresses the eastern flank of American security in the greater Middle East, its fate is profoundly intertwined with America's own. The money for the Sept. 11 attacks was wired to Florida from banks in Pakistan, and al-Qaida used the country for transit to Afghanistan. Instability in Pakistan may well spill over into Afghanistan, as well, endangering the some 26,000 U.S. troops and a similar number of NATO troops in that country. And it is not as if Afghanistan were stable to begin with. If Pakistani politics finds its footing, if a successor to Benazir Bhutto is elected in short order by the PPP and the party can remain united, and if elections are held soon, the crisis could pass. If there is substantial and ongoing turmoil, however, Muslim radicals will certainly take advantage of it.

In order to get through this crisis, Bush must insist that the Pakistani Supreme Court, summarily dismissed and placed under house arrest by Musharraf, be reinstated. The PPP must be allowed to elect a successor to Ms. Bhutto without the interference of the military. Early elections must be held, and the country must return to civilian rule. Pakistan's population is, contrary to the impression of many pundits in the United States, mostly moderate and uninterested in the Taliban form of Islam. But if the United States and "democracy" become associated in their minds with military dictatorship, arbitrary dismissal of judges, and political instability, they may turn to other kinds of politics, far less favorable to the United States. Musharraf may hope that the Pakistani military will stand with him even if the vast majority of people turn against him. It is a forlorn hope, and a dangerous one, as the shah of Iran discovered in 1978-79. '

I am appalled by the rightwing US pundits who are taking advantage of Bhutto's assassination to blame "the people of Pakistan" for "extremism." Benazir's party would have won at least a plurality in parliament. The PPP is a moderate, middle class party, and it has done well in unrigged elections during the past 20 years. She was killed by an extremist of some sort. The Muslim fundamentalist parties usually only get 3 percent of the vote in national elections, and they got 11.3 percent of the popular vote in 2002 only because Musharraf interfered with the PPP and Muslim League campaigns.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a lifelong rival of Benazir Bhutto, claimed that he, too, had been targeted for assassination on Thursday, but had escaped it. He said his party would boycott the January 8 elections called by President Pervez Musharraf, to protest Bhutto's death, and he called on other parties to boycott, as well. Sharif intimated that the Pakistani military was behind Ms. Bhutto's assassination.

In what may be a preview of civil unrest, A gun battle broke out between two factions of the Muslim League, leaving 4 persons dead. The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) group resisted encroachment from the Pakistan Muslim League (Qa'id-i A'zam). The PML-N is loyal to Nawaz Sharif, while PML (Q) is very close to Pervez Musharraf. Four Nawaz supporters were killed in the clash.

David Rohde of the NYT, who has been doing excellent reporting from Pakistan, wonders if President Pervez Musharraf can survive the crisis provoked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Rohde recently reported on a nation-wide poll in Pakistan that showed that 67% of Pakistanis wanted Musharraf to resign, and 70% did not believe his government deserved reelection.

Likely the PPP will now select another leader. It has declared a 40-day mourning period and my guess is that elections therefore cannot be held until early February. The best chance for everyone getting out of this mess with hide intact is for the the PPP and the Muslim League to contest February elections and for a strong parliament to emerge with genuine grassroots support. If that does not happen, I am afraid of what might. This is a nuclear power we are talking about, in the middle of a very dangerous neighborhood.

The seriousness of the situation in the streets of some of Pakistan's important towns and cities doesn't seem to me to be being reported in the US press and media. In contrast, Pakistani newspapers are giving chilling details of large urban centers turned into ghost towns on Friday morning, with no transport available, hundreds of thousands of persons stranded far from home, shops closed, and banks, gas stations, police stations and automobiles torched. Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, Sukkur, Jacobabad and many others in Sindh Province fell victim to the violence (Bhutto was from Larkana in Sindh but had a residence in Karachi). The police seemed to be AWOL for the most part in these cities, allowing the rioting and looting to go on unhindered.

Here is a tally of violence in the major port city of Karachi (population 11 million inside city limits) overnight, resulting from riots to protest the killing of Benazir Bhutto:

Number of vehicles burned: 150
Number of streets where tires were set afire: 26
Number of banks set on fire: 16
Number of gas stations torched: 13
Number of persons shot dead: 10
Number of persons injured: 68
Number of PIA flights coming in: 0
Number of shops and businesses closed: Most

The News adds:

' [Karachi:] one of the posh areas of the city Zamzama was ransacked by unidentified people who looted showrooms, shops and boutiques. Within minutes of the breaking of the news of the death of PPP chairperson, enraged crowds went on the rampage, indiscriminately burning cars, motorcycles, fire tenders and banks, plunging the whole city into a state of lawlessness and anarchy that was seldom seen before . . .

The uncontrolled protestors put the Gulistan-e-Jauhar Police Station on fire. Four Chinese engineers got stranded in Gulshan-e-Iqbal area and sought refuge at the Gulshan-e-Iqbal Police Station. They were later safely evacuated from there.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of employees of various companies, corporate houses and shops were stranded when public transport disappeared from the city’s main arteries. These people were seen walking on roads for hours to reach their homes. On the other hand, thousands of employees were forced to stay back at their offices or took refuge with their friends and relatives. . . '

Throughout the towns and cities of Sindh Province, violence paralyzed urban life and most often transport workers went home, stranding people in mosques and offices. The News reports:

' The office of District Nazim was attacked and some branches of commercial banks and multinational restaurants and hotels were also burnt during the ongoing violence.

The road and train link of Hyderabad with other parts of the province and country was also badly affected after a train was set ablaze. However, no injury was reported.

A large number of people had been stranded in mosques and offices because of non-availability of transport.

Some offices of the electric supply company were also torched and police stations were also attacked while minor scuffles between police and the protesters were also reported.

Our Sukkur correspondent adds: Violence erupted throughout interior Sindh, including Sukkur, Larkana, Rohri, Salehpat, Pano Akil, Ghotki, Daharki, Ubauro, Shikarpur, Khairpur, Jacobabad, Kandhkot, Thull, Tangwani and other cities and towns, on Thursday night following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

In Sukkur, enraged mob set ablaze the Taluka council office, State Life Building, fruit and vegetable market, besides burning tyres on various streets.

In Rohri, the protesting youth attacked the residence of District Nazim Sukkur Syed Nasir Hussain Shah and damaged the house.

In Larkana, four banks, including a private and nationalised bank, were set ablaze and the bank employees were locked inside the bank, but no casualty was reported. The unruly mob also caused damage to government offices and vehicles, while all the main bazaars remained closed.

In Pano Akil, the railway station and the Nadra office were set ablaze, while the unruly people were burning tyres at various places.

In Khairpur, two persons lost their lives in an exchange of fire between police and agitators.

Similar protests were being carried out in other cities and towns of interior Sindh including, Ghotki, Daharki, Ubauro, Shikarpur, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Kandhkot, Thull, etc, where enraged people attacked many government offices and caused damage. The protesters also blocked railway tracks at different places.

Despite large-scale incidents of violence, no police personnel was seen in the cities, while most of the cities and towns plunged into darkness due to unannounced load shedding by Hesco.

Our Thatta correspondent adds: The entire Thatta district was completely closed as soon as the news about the assassination of Benazir Bhutto spread over here.

All shops, business centres, pan cabins and petrol pumps were closed. All the election camps were also closed and streetlights switched off. Scores of people came out on roads and mourned the incident aggressively. They continued to weep and beat their heads and chests. '

In Punjab province, Rawalpindi suffered the most violence from all accounts: "Murree road, the main artery in Rawalpindi suffered the major wrath of the angry mob and PPP activists who burnt tyres, damaged public and private properties, and burnt vehicles."

Folks, I've seen civil wars and riots first hand, and revolutions from not too far away, and this situation looks pretty bad to me.
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Pakistan's 2007 Crises Come to a Crescendo; Benazir Assassinated Implications for US Security

Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, has been assassinated at a rally held Thursday evening near Islamabad. She appears to have been shot by the assassin, who was wearing a suicide bomb belt, which he then detonated to make sure he had finished the job. The Bhuttos are sort of the Kennedys of Pakistan, marked by wealth, power and tragedy, and central to the country's politics for the past four decades.

The Pakistani authorities are blaming Muslim militants for the assassination. That is possible, but everyone in Pakistan remembers that it was the military intelligence, or Inter-Services Intelligence, that promoted Muslim militancy in the two decades before September 11 as a wedge against India in Afghanistan and Kashmir. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) faithful will almost certainly blame Pervez Musharraf, and sentiment here is more important than reality, whatever the reality may be. The PPP is one of two very large, long-standing grassroots political parties in Pakistan, and if its followers are radicalized by this event, it could lead to severe turmoil. Just a day before her assassination Benazir had pledged that the PPP would not allow the military to rig the upcoming January 8 parliamentary elections.

Pakistan is important to US security. It is a nuclear power. Its military fostered, then partially turned on the Taliban and al-Qaeda, which have bases in the lawless tribal areas of the northern part of the country. And Pakistan is key to the future of its neighbor, Afghanistan. Pakistan is also a key transit route for any energy pipelines built between Iran or Central Asia and India, and so central to the energy security of the United States.

The military government of Pervez Musharraf was shaken by two big crises in 2007, one urban and one rural. The urban crisis was his interference in the rule of law and his dismissal of the supreme court chief justice. The Pakistani middle class has greatly expanded in the last seven years, as others have noted, and educated white collar people need a rule of law to conduct their business. Last June 50,000 protesters came out to defend the supreme court, even though the military had banned rallies. The rural crisis was the attempt of a Neo-Deobandi cult made up of Pushtuns and Baluch from the north to establish themselves in the heart of the capital, Islamabad, at the Red Mosque seminary. They then attempted to impose rural, puritan values on the cosmopolitan city dwellers. When they kidnapped Chinese acupuncturists, accusing them of prostitution, they went too far. Pakistan depends deeply on its alliance with China, and the Islamabad middle classes despise Talibanism. Musharraf ham-fistedly had the military mount a frontal assault on the Red Mosque and its seminary, leaving many dead and his legitimacy in shreds. Most Pakistanis did not rally in favor of the Neo-Deobandi cultists, but to see a military invasion of a mosque was not pleasant (the militants inside turned out to be heavily armed and quite sinister).

The NYT reported that US Secretary of State Condi Rice tried to fix Musharraf's subsequent dwindling legitimacy by arranging for Benazir to return to Pakistan to run for prime minister, with Musharraf agreeing to resign from the military and become a civilian president. When the supreme court seemed likely to interfere with his remaining president, he arrested the justices, dismissed them, and replaced them with more pliant jurists. This move threatened to scuttle the Rice Plan, since Benazir now faced the prospect of serving a dictator as his grand vizier, rather than being a proper prime minister.

With Benazir's assassination, the Rice Plan is in tatters and Bush administration policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan is tottering.

Benazir is from a major Pakistani political dynasty. (See the obituary here and the photographs here. Her father, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was prime minister in the 1970s but was overthrown by a military coup in 1977 and subsequently hanged by military dictator Zia ul-Huq. Benazir helped lead the Movement for the Restoration of Democracy in the 1980s, and was often under house arrest. When Zia died in an airplane accident in 1988, Benazir won the subsequent elections and served as prime minister 1988-1990. Zia had put in place mechanisms to limit popular sovereignty, and the then 'president' removed Benazir from office in 1990. She served again as PM, 1993-1996 but was again deposed, being accused of corruption. After the 1999 military coup of Pervez Musharraf, she was in a state of permanent exile, since he said he would have her arrested if she tried to come back. He relented because of his own collapsing position and because of US pressure, and allowed her to return in October. She was almost assassinated at that time by a huge bomb when she landed in Karachi.

See also the comments of Manan Ahmad at our Global Affairs blog, where there are several recent important entries.
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2 US Troops Killed, 3 wounded; Turkey Bombs KRG again; Iraqi Cabinet Proposes Amnesty

The banner under all CNN stories on Iraq on Wednesday in the US was "Progress in Iraq 2008," with the 'reduction in violence' the subtext. This is not news, it is propaganda. CNN can't know what 2008 in Iraq will be like, and this 'progress' banner gives a positive impression of what is still a dreadful situation. I mean, really, this is a Fox Cable News sort of tactic. And, they did not even report most of the actual news in Iraq (see below).

Turkey bombed Iraqi Kurdistan again on Wednesday. This time the guerrillas of the Kurdish Workers Party [PKK] had already fled farther from the border (perhaps they were tipped off that the attack was coming). So the Turkish bombs fell on empty villages. The US embassy in Baghdad expressed support for the air strikes on the PKK, but warned that it would object to civilian deaths or a destabilization of northern Iraq. Uh, I'm afraid when you have a NATO ally bombing a country you militarily occupy to kill members of a terror group supported by your local allies who have been killing soldiers of the NATO ally-- you already have destabilization. And, if the Turkish military really has killed 150 Kurds on the Iraqi side of the border since Dec. 16, it certainly has killed civilians.

The BBC reports that the Iraqi cabinet reported out to parliament a bill calling for the release of large numbers of detainees in US and Iraqi prisons in that country. The US holds about 26,000 prisoners, and Iraq holds about 24,000, for a total of 50,000 (some sources report a higher number), or about 0.2% of Iraq's entire population. The real reason for the cabinet's having passed this law in my view is that the Sunni Arab "National Accord Front" has made it a precondition for rejoining the largely Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki. One question is whether parliament will pass it. Al-Maliki is now a minority prime minister, and I'm not sure the Kurdish and Shiite members of parliament will be willing to let thse mostly Sunni Arab prisoners go . . .

The Kurdistan Regional Authority's parliament agreed Wednesday to postpone the referendum on Kirkuk for 6 months. The Iraqi constitution called for Kirkuk Province to hold a referendum by December, 2007, on whether Kirkuk should become part of the Kurdistan Regional Authority (which has grouped and administratively replaced the former provinces of Irbil, Dohuk and Sulaymaniya). The Kurds have flooded Kirkuk with Kurdish residents, some but not all having lived there before Saddam Hussein expelled them. They would therefor likely win such a referendum. Holding it is opposed by the Turkmen and Arabs of Kirkuk, who do not wish to be ruled by the Kurdistan Regional Authority. Kicking this problem down the road for 6 months avoids a crisis now, but guarantees one whenever the measure goes through. I'd say the Democrats should hope that the referendum is not postponed for a year or more, since in that case the resulting crisis will likely break on their watch.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic htat Abd al-Jalil Khalaf, the police chief of Basra, told the al-Arabiya satellite news channel on Wednesday that a shadowy group calling itself "Commanding the Good and Forbidding what is Prohibited" has recently killed 50 women in the southern port. It is probably a puritanical Shiite group, and it says it objects to make-up (tabarruj or the wanton display of oneself in public). The women killed have been for the most part Muslims (both Sunni and Shiite), though two were Christians.

DPA reports in Arabic that Syrian border authorities found and confiscated Israeli-made listening devices that appeared to be on their way to Iraq.

Tina Susman at the LAT reports on how the US military is 'weaning' local Iraqi officials off US help and insisting that they apply for it to the central government in Baghdad. As historian of African decolonization Fred Cooper has pointed out, this 'weaning' process is actually just decolonization, of the same sort the French had to do in Senegal or the British in Uganda, back in the late 1950s and the 1960s. My own suspicion is that the US officer corps knows that the US military is likely to draw down quite substantially over the next two years, and that such decolonization moves have become urgent.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq on Wednesday:

NINEVEH PROVINCE - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and three others wounded in a gunbattle in Nineveh Province north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

BAGHDAD - Seven dead bodies were found in Baghdad over the past two days, police said.

NEAR BAQUBA - The decomposed bodies of 17 men were found dumped in a town near the restive city of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, the Iraqi army said.

KANAN - Gunmen attacked an Iraqi army check point, killing three soldiers and wounding another seven in the small town of Kanan, east of Baquba, a security source said.

BAQUBA - Three members of a neighborhood patrol fighting with Iraqi forces and the U.S. military against al-Qaeda were killed and two were seriously wounded when a booby-trapped house exploded as they entered it in Baquba, police said.

MOSUL - Three children were killed and two wounded when a roadside bomb in a garbage dump exploded while they were playing nearby in the city of Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

LATIFIYA - Two bodies were found bound and shot in the town of Latifiya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

BAIJI - Gunmen killed Ali al-Igaidi, a tribal leader, in a drive-by shooting in the town of Baiji, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said . . .

McClatchy adds:

Baghdad - Around 9 a.m., a roadside bomb targeted an American patrol at Bab Al-Muatham ( north Baghdad ) . No casualties recorded but some damage to one of the convoy’s vehicles . . .

Kirkuk - Wednesday afternoon, gunmen kidnapped Hamid A.Abdul Latif , a member of Democratic Party of Kurdistan in front of his house at Jalwla district . . .

Hannah Allam of McClatchy writes a perceptive survey of the censoring of the internet in the Middle East. Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are the worst, whereas Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco and Jordan [I would add Turkey] at the moment have little official censorship. (The governments of all four countries allow parliamentary elections (though only Lebanon's are relatively un-fixed) and are opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood and similar such puritanical groups. I suspect that they leave the internet uncensored for the same reason they allow belly dancing to be shown on television-- a little bit of libertinism is seen as an antidote to too much puritanism. And, multiparty parliamentary elections promote a free internet, since the parties have an interest in it for campaign purposes). I predict that the countries that heavily censor the internet, such as Syria, will suffer for it economically and with regard to development. By the way, Informed Comment is proudly censored in several Middle Eastern countries.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Top Ten Myths about Iraq 2007

10. Myth: The US public no longer sees Iraq as a central issue in the 2008 presidential campaign.

In a recent ABC News/ Washington Post poll, Iraq and the economy were virtually tied among voters nationally, with nearly a quarter of voters in each case saying it was their number one issue. The economy had become more important to them than in previous months (in November only 14% said it was their most pressing concern), but Iraq still rivals it as an issue!

9. Myth: There have been steps toward religious and political reconciliation in Iraq in 2007. Fact: The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has for the moment lost the support of the Sunni Arabs in parliament. The Sunnis in his cabinet have resigned. Even some Shiite parties have abandoned the government. Sunni Arabs, who are aware that under his government Sunnis have largely been ethnically cleansed from Baghdad, see al-Maliki as a sectarian politician uninterested in the welfare of Sunnis.

8. Myth: The US troop surge stopped the civil war that had been raging between Sunni Arabs and Shiites in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

Fact: The civil war in Baghdad escalated during the US troop escalation. Between January, 2007, and July, 2007, Baghdad went from 65% Shiite to 75% Shiite. UN polling among Iraqi refugees in Syria suggests that 78% are from Baghdad and that nearly a million refugees relocated to Syria from Iraq in 2007 alone. This data suggests that over 700,000 residents of Baghdad have fled this city of 6 million during the US 'surge,' or more than 10 percent of the capital's population. Among the primary effects of the 'surge' has been to turn Baghdad into an overwhelmingly Shiite city and to displace hundreds of thousands of Iraqis from the capital.

7. Myth: Iran was supplying explosively formed projectiles (a deadly form of roadside bomb) to Salafi Jihadi (radical Sunni) guerrilla groups in Iraq. Fact: Iran has not been proved to have sent weapons to any Iraqi guerrillas at all. It certainly would not send weapons to those who have a raging hostility toward Shiites. (Iran may have supplied war materiel to its client, the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI), which was then sold off from warehouses because of graft, going on the arms market and being bought by guerrillas and militiamen.

6. Myth: The US overthrow of the Baath regime and military occupation of Iraq has helped liberate Iraqi women. Fact: Iraqi women have suffered significant reversals of status, ability to circulate freely, and economic situation under the Bush administration.

5. Myth: Some progress has been made by the Iraqi government in meeting the "benchmarks" worked out with the Bush administration. Fact: in the words of Democratic Senator Carl Levin, "Those legislative benchmarks include approving a hydrocarbon law, approving a debaathification law, completing the work of a constitutional review committee, and holding provincial elections. Those commitments, made 1 1/2 years ago, which were to have been completed by January of 2007, have not yet been kept by the Iraqi political leaders despite the breathing space the surge has provided."

4. Myth: The Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils," who are on the US payroll, are reconciling with the Shiite government of PM Nuri al-Maliki even as they take on al-Qaeda remnants. Fact: In interviews with the Western press, Awakening Council tribesmen often speak of attacking the Shiites after they have polished off al-Qaeda. A major pollster working in Iraq observed,

' Most of the recent survey results he has seen about political reconciliation, Warshaw said, are "more about [Iraqis] reconciling with the United States within their own particular territory, like in Anbar. . . . But it doesn't say anything about how Sunni groups feel about Shiite groups in Baghdad." Warshaw added: "In Iraq, I just don't hear statements that come from any of the Sunni, Shiite or Kurdish groups that say 'We recognize that we need to share power with the others, that we can't truly dominate.' " ' '

The polling shows that "the Iraqi government has still made no significant progress toward its fundamental goal of national reconciliation."

3. Myth: The Iraqi north is relatively quiet and a site of economic growth. Fact: The subterranean battle among Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs for control of the oil-rich Kirkuk province makes the Iraqi north a political mine field. Kurdistan now also hosts the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas that sneak over the border and kill Turkish troops. The north is so unstable that the Iraqi north is now undergoing regular bombing raids from Turkey.

2. Myth: Iraq has been "calm" in fall of 2007 and the Iraqi public, despite some grumbling, is not eager for the US to depart. Fact: in the past 6 weeks, there have been an average of 600 attacks a month, or 20 a day, which has held steady since the beginning of November. About 600 civilians are being killed in direct political violence per month, but that number excludes deaths of soldiers and police. Across the board, Iraqis believe that their conflicts are mainly caused by the US military presence and they are eager for it to end.

1. Myth: The reduction in violence in Iraq is mostly because of the escalation in the number of US troops, or "surge."

Fact: Although violence has been reduced in Iraq, much of the reduction did not take place because of US troop activity. Guerrilla attacks in al-Anbar Province were reduced from 400 a week to 100 a week between July, 2006 and July, 2007. But there was no significant US troop escalation in al-Anbar. Likewise, attacks on British troops in Basra have declined precipitously since they were moved out to the airport away from population centers. But this change had nothing to do with US troops.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Two Bombings Kill 36 in N. Iraq Iraq Threatens S. Korea on Oil Exports

Guerrillas in the oil refinery town of Bayji killed at least 26 persons and wounded 80 others with a suicide truck bombing. In Diyala province to the southeast, a suicide bomber killed 10 persons and wounded 5 others in the provincial capital of Baqubah. A day earlier in Diyala Province, gunment kidnapped 14 Shiites from a bus. (Scroll down).

In Hilla on Monday, some 2,000 persons held a rally to protest the appointment of Major General Fadhil Raddad as provincial police chief. His predecessor, Maj. Gen. Qais al-Ma'muri, was blown up on Dec. 9. Al-Ma'umuri had gotten along well with the Sadr Movement and the Mahdi Army. But critics charge that Raddad is a member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and obviously fear that he will be less even-handed in dealing with the Mahdi Army. This conflict over the police chief is another manifestation of the competition between ISCI and the Sadrists-- a competition which could eventually generate violence.

The Iraqi government is threatening To stop crude oil sales to South Korea, where they account for 5 percent of petroleum imports. The Baghdad government is angry that a Korean firm is in talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government, exploring a bid to do exploration and development in Iraqi Kurdistan without securing permission first from the Federal government.

Conn Hallinan takes issue with the triumphal narrative of the 'success of the surge' in the US press, suggesting that the US isn't that powerful there and still has to deal with warlords with shifting allegiances, and that the Sunni-Shiite civil war is in a lull rather than being over with. The article appeared in Foreign Policy in Focus.

Other political violence on Tuesday, according to Reuters:

' MOSUL - The governor of Nineveh Province, Duraid Kashmula, escaped unharmed from a roadside bomb attack near his convoy in the provincial capital Mosul . . . north of Baghdad, Kashmula told Reuters. His driver and one of his guards were wounded in the attack.

BAQUBA - Militants blew up a police station, killing two policemen in Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD - U.S. forces killed a total of 13 militants and detained 27 others on Monday and Tuesday during operations targeting al-Qaeda in central and northern Iraq, the U.S. military said.

DHULUIYA - Police recovered a body with gunshot wounds from the Tigris river on Monday in Dhuluiya, 70 km (45 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

DHULUIYA - Gunmen kidnapped a man driving a car in eastern Dhuluiya, on Monday, police said. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Christmas in Iraq

There was no midnight mass among Christians in Iraq again this year. Too dangerous.

And of the estimated 800,000 Christians in the country in 2002, as few as half, 400,000, may be left. Many have fled to Syria, joining the 1.5 million Iraqi refugees there.

Even some Christians still in the country have been internally displaced.

None of the feel good human interest programs I saw on cable news this weekend focused on the displacement of indigenoous Christians.

If it is not on TV it doesn't exist.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Barzani Slams Turks

Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani on Monday lashed out at Turkey for its air strikes on Iraq. Turkey says it hit terror bases.

Bush strongly backed Turkey with a call to PM Erdogan.

The US had depended heavily on the Kurds in Iraq. Is this the beginniing of a major rift?

Turkey says that its Dec. 16 air strikes, involving 50 jets, killed 150 PKK guerrillas. This is a larger death toll than earlier suspected and won't improve Barzani's mood.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey Bombs again; Demo Planned against new Babil Governor

Turkey bombed northern Iraq again on Sunday, in an apparent attack on suspected bases of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla group. Early reports were that no one was killed.

US officials in Baghdad are convinced that some of the reduction in the number of attacks on US troops is owing to conscious Iranian decisions not to back the Shiite militiamen who had targeted Americans. If this is true, it is a refutation of the Cheney gang's insistence that the Iranians can only be dealt with by force and enmity.

Asharq al-Awsat reports in Arabic that the Sadr Movement is planning a big rally on Monday against the appointment of Fadil Raddam as the new provincial police chief for Babil. They maintain that Raddam was the head of the Baath secret police in Najaf in the later Saddam years. Another source says that the tribal leaders are planning a big demonstration for Monday.

The death of the jihadi guerrilla movement in Iraq against the US has been much exaggerated, according to Aljazeera.

McClatchy reports political violence on Sunday:

Baghdad

- Around 6:30 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted civilians in Zafaraniyah, killing two civilians including one woman and injuring two civilians.

- Around 11 a.m. a roadside bomb targeted a joint U.S. and Iraqi convoy in Al Ghazaliyah, no casualties were reported.

- Police found three bodies in Baghdad, one in Sadr, in Doura and Amil.

Diyala

- Gunmen attacked Iraqi army checkpoint in Saqr village near Al Khalis, five gunmen were killed and two soldiers were injured. . .

Kirkuk

- Gunmen attacked police patrol in Al Zarga town south of Kirkuk yesterday, two gunmen were killed and two police officers were injured.

- An IED targeted a house in central Kirkuk. The explosion caused damages to the targeted house. Police said the house belong to Ahmed Zeinal who works with U.S. forces.

Reuters adds:

MOSUL - Gunmen killed Nyyef al-Shimmari, an Iraqi army lieutenant-colonel, in a drive by-shooting in western Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR MOSUL - One civilian was killed and five policemen were wounded when a parked car bomb targeted a passing police patrol just south of Mosul, police said. . .

LATIFIYA - A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded two others in the small town of Latifiya, 40 km (25 miles) south of Baghdad, police said.

MAHMUDIYA - One body was found with gunshot wounds in the town of Mahmudiya, 30 km (20 miles) south of Baghdad, police said. . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Zogby: Huckabee, Obama Surge

Zogby has just released a national new poll that shows that the proportion of voters who are undecided on both sides of the aisle has fallen dramatically. The chief beneficiaries of the voters making up their minds have been Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee.

From there, the story differs dramatically in the two parties, however. As Republican voters have made up their minds, they have suddenly during the last month abandoned Rudy Giuliani in droves, so that he has fallen from 29% to 23%. At the same time, Huckabee's stock has risen meteorically. Romney's numbers seem to fluctuate pretty dramatically from month to month, suggesting that the voters have not yet made up their minds about him, but he had a good month, as well. We may conclude that Republicans are not satisfied with Giuliani as frontrunner, and he is faltering very substantially. They are frantically casting around for someone else, benefitting Huckabee dramatically and to a lesser extent Romney. But given the margin of error, Romney still has not broken out of the pack, being trailed by only three points by John McCain and Fred Thompson. McCain's numbers have firmed up a little, but not dramatically, and given his initial advantages and his money, his performance can only be called disappointing. Thompson is on a clear downward trajectory and may as well go home.

On the Democratic side, only Obama's numbers have shown consistent and significant improvement. It is becoming a two-person race. Although Edwards's numbers have improved a little this fall, he is stuck in the low teens.

Caveat: This poll is national and things would look different at the local level. And, note: I turned the Zogby numbers into charts so that they can be read more easily.

Zogby says:

"Support for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has surged to 22% in a national 2008 Republican preference poll, bringing him within one point of front-runner Rudy Giuliani, who enjoys slim 23% lead among likely Republican primary and caucus voters, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

Huckabee's support stood at 11% in November, moving up from just 4% in October polling. Giuliani's support has fallen to 23% in this latest poll from the 29% support he enjoyed in November. Trailing behind Giuliani and Huckabee in third place is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 16%, followed by former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13%, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12% and Ron Paul at 4%. . .

Republicans


[Note: Graph by Cole. . .]

New York Democrat Hillary Clinton's lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has slipped from 11 points in polling last month to 8 points in this latest survey. Clinton's support stands at 40%, up from 38% last month, while Obama's support is up to 32% from 27% last month. . . .

Democrats


[Note: Cole graph. . .]

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is in third place among Democrats at 13% support, showing no change from polling last month. Joe Biden and Bill Richardson are tied at 3% support.

Voters on both sides of the political aisle are drawing conclusions in the nomination races, the poll shows. Undecided Republicans dropped from 21% in mid-November to just 9% in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. Undecided Democrats comprised just 4% of the survey sample, down from 14% in the mid-November poll. "

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey Bombs Iraq Again; Massive Bombing in Pakistan

Turkey bombed the Amadiya area of northern Iraq on Saturday. Ankara said that it was targeting bases of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrilla organization. The PKK stands accused of killing over two dozen Turkish troops in recent months. Turkey says that the culprits then cross into Iraq, where they are given safe haven by the Kurdistan Regional Authority of Massoud Barzani.

The Turkish chief of staff says that the US implicitly endorses these bombing raids on American-occupied Iraq. He is correct, since the US controls Iraqi air space and Turkish jets could not scramble over Iraqi Kurdistan if the US had not provided Ankara with "Identify Friend or Foe" codes. Otherwise the Turkish planes would risk being perceived as hostiles by the US Air Force, and would therefor risk being shot down.

In other news of northern Iraq, the constitutionally mandated referendum in Kirkuk has been delayed for six months on a United Nations recommendation. Kirkuk is ethically mixed, but the Kurds wish to annex it to their Kurdistan Regional Government, a region that now encompasses three former nothern provinces. Kirkuk is more ethnically mixed than the others, however, and the annexation will likely provoke violence by Turkmen and Arabs who do not want to be dragooned into a Kurdish mini-state.

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that Iraqi premier Barham Salih said that Kirkuk belongs to the Kurds, and that the postponement of the referendum would rob Kurdistan of what was rightfully hers. Abdullah Gul, now the Turkish president, had threatened, when he was minister of foreign affairs, that if the Kurds annexed Kirkuk, Turkey would invade to prevent it.

Washington is petrified that the repeated Turkish incursions will throw northern Iraq into chaos.

Speaking of chaos, guerrillas bombed a mosque in northern Pakistan, killing 50 person, on Saturday. Barnett Rubin explains this horrific event as part of a concerted plan by al-Qaeda and the neo-Taliban in Pakistan to cut off and surround the northern city of Peshawar.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Al-Hakim Seeks Constraints on Awakening Councils

The USG Open Cource Center translates portions of the Friday Prayer sermon of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI). Al-Hakim said he wanted to limit the Sunni Arab 'Awakening Councils' so that they did not become an independent force in their own right. He wants to see such tribal levies set up only in 'hot zones' (i.e. Sunni Arab regions, not the calmer Shiite regions. [In the latter, they might compete with al-Hakim's own paramilitary, the Badr Corps.]) He also calls on the Iraqi Accord Front (Sunni fundamentalist) to rejoin the al-Maliki cabinet. Excerpts:

Round-up of Iraqi Friday Sermons 21 Dec; Al-Iraqiyah Carries Al-Hakim's Sermon
Iraq -- OSC Summary
Saturday, December 22, 2007

'. . . In his second 13-minute sermon, Al-Hakim says: "Today, we are experiencing very delicate circumstances. Our dealing with them will determine the future of Iraq and its sons. These circumstances are not less delicate and important than all the historical events over the past few years. Praise be to Almighty God, through the great sacrifices that the Iraqis have made, we have accomplished the mission of building the Iraqi state and its political system on firm foundations. These foundations include the constitution, which guarantees equality and justice for all. These all include national participation by everyone, the elections, the freedom of expression, pluralism, and the recognition of the rights of others. Thus, we got rid once and for all, God willing, of dictatorship and sectarian and ethnic discrimination.

Today, we also have great missions ahead of us that are not less important than all the previous missions. These missions include the independence of Iraq. We mean the full and real independence, which will be gained by liberating Iraq from Chapter Seven; ending the UN Security Council's mandate on our country, its destiny, and resources; and drafting the security agreement with America, which is the agreement that will define the role of the multinational forces in Iraq. Consequently, this agreement will contribute to liberating it from the mandate of Chapter Seven. This agreement should safeguard the brave Iraqi people's rights on all levels and achieve full sovereignty."

Al-Hakim adds: "Much progress has been made on the security level in Baghdad and in entire Iraq. Everyone admits this. This is a vital and important issue that will positively affect all walks of life in all Iraq. However, I must warn that this progress must not mislead us to the point that makes our security forces and citizens relinquish caution and seriousness about confronting the possible security dangers posed by the circles of plotting against Iraq and the Iraqis here and there. We have made dear sacrifices for the sake of what has been achieved, and we should work to protect the lives of citizens from the tampering of the criminal ones. In this regard, we highly value the role that is being played by our armed forces of the army and the police as well as the awakening (forces), tribes, and the popular and regional committees in Iraq in pursuing terrorism and criminals. This is particularly true since they play an honorable national role and express the unity of the Iraqis in the face of Iraq's enemies. At the same time, we stress the need that these awakening forces should help and support the Iraqi Government in pursuing the criminals and terrorists, but they should not be an alternative to it. We also stress the need for balance in building these awakening forces, particularly in the places that have a mixed population, and say that they should be in the hot areas only, especially since weapons should be in the hand of the government only. Everyone should deal with this issue based on national interests, provided that this is in the interest of everyone."

He says: "For the sake of making progress in the political process, we stress the need for making efforts to persuade the sides that withdrew from the government to return to it; expedite the completion of the formation of the cabinet; rely on competence and experience in choosing the ministers and officials; and prepare to establish the regions in Iraq after the expiry of the legal period, particularly the south Baghdad region."

He adds: "The file of development and reconstruction, the rendering of services, paying attention to the citizens' interests, granting powers to the governorates in accordance with the constitution, fighting financial and administrative corruption, and reactivating the role of the Integrity (Commission), independent judiciary, and the laws issued by the Iraqi Council of Representatives should move in parallel with the efforts being exerted on the security level, taking into consideration that they contribute to consolidating the state of law and to fighting terrorism."

He says: "I call on the Iraqi Government to pay more attention to the poor social classes, the teachers, and the families of martyrs and prisoners; to return the displaced to their residential areas; to release the detainees who were not convicted; and to take care of the state's low-salary employees and provide them with the means of honorable living. I call on the government to set a fair wage scale for all state employees and to standardize this scale within the technical bases that guarantee justice for all. I also call on the government to expedite the implementation of the strategic laws that were issued by the Council of Representatives, such as the Investment Law on which more than a year has passed without implementation, something which has prevented Iraq in general and the Iraqi governorates (in particular) from benefiting from this law in building Iraq and achieving its progress and development. I also call on the government to study the reasons behind the ministries' failure to spend the budgets allocated for the governorates and to adopt a clear and an unwavering stand toward the incompetent ministers, expose them to the people, and isolate them, especially since they harm the people's interests."

Al-Hakim says: "In light of the great improvement in the security situation in the country, we call for making 2008 the year of reconstruction and development in Iraq. We call on all merchants, companies, and investment bodies in the world to contribute to the reconstruction and services campaign and to strengthening the Iraqi economy."

He says: "While we are approaching the time of holding the governorates elections in 2008, God willing, we stress the need to build the structure of the Higher Independent Election Committee in accordance with the provisions of the constitution which guarantee fairness, transparency, neutrality, and competence. We also call for complying with the constitution and the powers it has guaranteed for the governorates in order to build the decentralized state and enable these governorates to play their national role in building Iraq and serving their citizens. All this should be within the constitutional framework. I also reiterate my previous calls for rebuilding the shrine of the two Al-Askari imams, may God's peace be upon them, in Samarra, especially since this is an issue of interest to all Muslims in general and the followers of Al Al-Bayt (Shiites) in particular, and taking into consideration that this shrine plays a role in achieving national unity and reconciliation. On the external level, we believe that it is necessary to start implementing the regional partnership strategy through Iraq's participation in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and by expanding it to include all the region's countries."

He adds: "Finally, as you may know, a week from now, we will celebrate the day of the glorious (Pledge) of Al-Ghadir, (Shiites believe that having finished his hajj to Mecca, Prophet Muhammad, may God's peace and blessing be upon him, returned to Medina and the great multitude of Muslims went back with him. At Ghadir Khum, the brook of Khum, somewhere on his way to Medina, he received God's order to appoint Imam Ali Bin-Abi-Talib as his successor and the commander of the faithful after him) the day of imamate and sovereign power, when the honorable believers, as usual, will go to visit the shrine of Imam Ali Bin-Abi-Talib, may God's peace be upon him, in Al-Najaf al-Ashraf. Therefore, we recommend that they renew the pledge for their imam and religious authority, which is an extension to the imamate; comply with the law and order; and help the competent agencies so that the rituals will take place in an atmosphere of faith and brotherhood. I pray to Almighty God to have mercy on the martyrs of Iraq, particularly the two Al-Sadr martyrs and Shahid al-Mihrab, Al-Sayyid Al-Hakim, may God sanctify their secrets; to protect our great religious authorities, particularly Imam Al-Sayyid Al-Sistani, may God prolong his tall shadow; to grant success to our government; and to grant us all good things and blessings and guide us on the path of worshipping Him. He is the All-hearing and listens to the prayer of every supplicant. May God protect Iraq and its people and save us from misfortunes. May God's peace and blessing be upon you." '

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Clinton: Troops Perhaps out in a Year; Al-Hakim Slams Awakening Councils; Rice Bunkers Down

Reuters says that Iraq made a comeback as a campaign issue on Wednesday through Friday of this week. On Wednesday, Senator Hillary Clinton told a voter that she could get all US troops out of Iraq by early 2009. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who has called for an immediate and complete withdrawal of troops from Iraq, accused Clinton of changing her position. Clinton's aide, Harry Wolfson, responded, "Governor Richardson knows that Senator Clinton has been clear and consistent: If George Bush has not ended the war in Iraq, she will . . . As she has said, she would accomplish that by beginning to withdraw our troops within 60 days after inauguration at the rate of one or two brigades a month. This would mean that nearly all troops could be home within a year."

In the past, Clinton has declined to pledge that all troops would be out of Iraq by the end of her first term if she were elected (i.e. by 2012). She has also spoken of keeping a US base in Kurdistan, apparently for the long term. But perhaps she is changing her mind about all that, and if so it is an excellent development. Of course, as Richardson implies, it may not be so much a commitment as the expression of one possibility among others.

The other part of the Reuters piece on the return of Iraq referred to Secretary of state Condi Rice's testy slamming of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee for his characterization of Bush administration policy as unilateralist and exhibiting a bunker mentality.

Secretary Rice appears to have forgotten that the US invaded Iraq despite the opposition of the United Nations Security Council, and that Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz vowed to "punish France" for having refused to support the US war on Iraq. She also seems to have forgotten that then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld dismissed France and Germany as "old Europe," in an attempt to divide the European Union and strong-arm the Western European countries into toeing his line. It has also apparently escaped her attention that the Bush administration she serves blew off the Israeli-Palestinian peace process for 7 years even though UK PM Tony Blair and other NATO allies pleaded with them to continue the process begun by Bill Clinton at Camp David. Bush said he wanted to "unleash Sharon" (the then hard line Israeli prime minister), and maintained that sometimes "conflict clarifies things." (I guess things are very clear now.) Rice's own support for continued Israeli bombing of poor little Lebanon in August of 2006 was also opposed by virtually everyone in the international community.

The problem with a bunker mentality is that those inside the bunker forget that that is where they are.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) on Friday warned against the Sunni Arab "Awakening Councils" or US-funded tribal levies as a potential threat to Iraq's stability if they were not closely integrated into Iraqi security forces. Al-Hakim has met with Awakening Council leaders. He even recently applauded the one in al-Anbar Province for helping some Shiites come back to that region after they had earlier been ethnically cleansed by the Salafi Jihadis.

McClatchy gives us a preview of a forthcoming UNICEF report on the condition of Iraqi children in 2007, which is poor. Main findings:

' # Twenty-eight percent of Iraq's 17-year-olds took final exams this summer; 40 percent in south and central Iraq passed.

# Eighty percent of children outside Baghdad don't have working sewers in their communities, limiting access to safe water.

# An average of 25,000 children per month were displaced within Iraq by violence or intimidation.

# An estimated 760,000 children were out of primary school in 2006, and 220,000 more displaced children had their educations interrupted in 2007.

# By the end of 2007, about 75,000 children were living in camps or temporary shelter.

# About 1,350 children were detained by military and police, "many for alleged security violations." '

AP reports that that bombing in Kanaan on Thursday killed one US soldier and wounded 10 others, along with the Iraqis killed and wounded. In Muqdadiya, US troops found a torture chamber and mass grave in a facility of the so-called 'Islamic State of Iraq,' a Salafi Jihadi organization.

McClatchy reports political violence on Friday:

Baghdad

- Around 1 p.m. a suicide car bomb targeted Al Rasheed police station in Al Yousifiyah, killing four policemen and one civilian and injuring seven policemen and one civilian.

- Police found three bodies in Baghdad; one in Doura, Kasra and Camp Sara.

Diyala

- A mortar shell slammed into Al Salam town (about 25 Kilometers north of Baquba) and hit a house near the town's police station killing one child and injuring two others.

- Gunmen killed three men in Baladrouz market today.

Salahuddin

- One mortar shell landed in Balad city causing damages to one shop.

- Gunmen kidnapped a citizen in Al Touz town, Iraqi police said.

Anbar

- The U.S. military and Iraqi police said one Iraqi police officer was killed and one marine was injured in an altercation at a joint outpost in the Jazeera area of Ramadi on Wednesday. The police officer died of stab wounds and the marine was treated for minor injuries from lacerations at a military hospital. . .

Reuters adds, "BASRA - A suspected roadside bomb exploded next to a British military armored vehicle east of Basra International Airport, where British forces in Iraq are based, but there were no casualties from the blast, a British military official said."

At our group Global Affairs blog, Barnett Rubin shares a column by a Pakistani journalist on President Pervez Musharraf, "Banned in Pakistan: Comedian of the Year," by Ahmad Faruqui.

See also Philip J. Cunningham on China.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, Bonaparte's letter to the Ottoman Grand Vizier. Remember that "Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East," available in most bookstores, makes a fine last-minute gift for the holidays . . .

Other good reading for the New Year - Rebecca Solnit's Library of Hope.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Defending Miss Teen USA South Carolina

Now that all those 'famous quotes of 2007' are coming out, people are replaying the answer of Caitlin Upton, a contestant for Miss Teen USA from South Carolina to a question during her pageant. The exchange went like this:

Question: Recent polls have shown a fifth of Americans can't locate the United States on a world map. Why do you think this is?

Miss Teen South Carolina: "I personally believe the U.S. Americans are unable to do so because, uh, some, uh...people out there in our nation don't have maps, and, uh, I believe that our education like such as South Africa and, uh, the Iraq everywhere like, such as and...I believe that they should, our education over here in the U.S. should help the U.S., err, uh, should help South Africa and should help the Iraq and the Asian countries, so we will be able to build up our future for our...

Although the answer was painful to watch just because Ms. Upton was so obviously stricken at that moment with stage fright, I actually think her answer had some merit.

First of all, I liked her diction, "U.S. Americans." After all, everyone in North and South America could legitimately be called an "American". That we in the United States have appropriated this descriptor for ourselves is quite unfair to Canadians, Mexicans and Argentineans, e.g.

Second, her answer about why one fifth of Americans cannot find the U.S.A. on a map is almost certainly quite correct. It is because they don't have maps in their homes and have not been taught to read them. The bottom fifth of Americans in income goes to under-funded schools, and many of them are functionally illiterate. The rich in the US do not bear their fair share of education costs, because the main unit for school taxation is the local district. Since poor people can't afford to live in wealthy suburbs, and congregate together in poor districts, their schools are starved of money.

Third, although she did not state it very eloquently, she was correct to point out that Americans do not only need to find the United States on the map. They need to know where South Africa and Iraq are, as well. In fact, that she chose those two is interesting. One, South Africa, is an example of fairly successful movement from an authoritarian state dominated by one ethnicity to a multicultural form of democracy. The other, Iraq, is also making a transition from authoritarianism and domination by a single ethnicity (the Sunni Arabs of Saddam Hussein), but its passage to multiculturalism and parliamentary rule has been violent and turbulent. The difference is South Africa's attention to national reconciliation and also that South Africa's movement was indigenous rather than imposed from the outside.

She is correct that the U.S. Americans should help Iraqis, especially with regard to education. The U.S. Americans have helped create 1.5 million Iraqi refugees in Syria, whose children are not getting educated and cannot find things on the map.

So I find the underlying emphases in her answer to be very admirable and progressive in their implications.

Some of the response to her answer surely derives from simple bigotry. She is a southerner, a blonde, and a beauty queen. But a southern accent is not, as most northerners mistakenly believe, a sign of ignorance. Hair color, like skin color, indicates nothing about a person except that their ancestors lived 13,000 years in a place with a particular rate of ultraviolet exposure. And, good-looking people suffer a lot from spite in US society, which shows emotional lack of maturity on the part of those of us less fortunate in the symmetry department.

Ms. Upton's appearance on NBC's Today Show (below) reveals a bright and articulate person. Ms. Upton is interested in graphic design and a career in media, and I am sure she will have the last laugh on the assemblage of clueless losers who have been making fun of her, who lack her accomplishments and decency. And, I hope that all U.S. Americans take to heart her values, and find ways to help improve education in this country about international affairs, and ways to help ensure that a whole generation of Iraqis displaced by our war does not grow up illiterate.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Suicide Bombings in Diyala, Baghdad;

A suicide bomber killed 13 in Kanaan, village near the provincial capital Baquba in Diyala Province. The bomber was targeting a patrol of the local Awakening Council (pro-US Sunni tribal levies). Reuters adds: "In another attack, a car bomb parked outside a liquor store in central Baghdad killed three people and wounded 20."

Leila Fadel interviews the family of an Iraqi detainee just released, and finds bitterness.

McClatchy reports that several hundred Palestinian refugees, resident in Iraq, are still trapped at the Syrian border.

Mitt Romney slammed Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid for saying the the Iraq War was lost. Romney has to define what 'victory' would look like in Iraq. My guess is that it doen't look very much like the current situation.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Babil Police Force Faces Uncertain Future After Chief's Murder

The USG Open Source center does a report on the security situation in Babil Province, just south of Baghdad.

'OSC Report: Iraq -- Babil Police Force Faces Uncertain Future After Chief's Murder . . .
Iraq -- OSC Report
Friday, December 21, 2007

Iraq --Government Handling of Security in Babil Raises Questions About Independence of Police, Parties' Influence Measures taken by the central government in the wake of the 9 December assassination of Qays al Ma'muri, the popular police commander of the southern governorate of Babil (Al-Hillah), suggest that Baghdad is moving to ensure that Al-Mamuri's successor has less independence than he enjoyed. There had been reports prior to Al-Ma'muri's death that Baghdad was seeking to remove him from office, and officials from the Al-Sadr Trend have hinted that the leading Shiite parties played a role in his assassination.

In the wake of the Al-Ma'muri assassination, the central government appears to be taking steps to enhance the role of the army in Babil at the expense of the local police force, which under Al-Ma'muri reportedly had enjoyed considerable independence.

A "high-level source" in the interior ministry reported that the prime minister had ordered that Babil's "security leadership" be unified under a single command (Al-Sabah, 11 December).
Brigadier General Abd al-Amir al-Shammari, Babil chief of operations, reported that the army had acquired a "prominent role" in Babil's security, contrasting this with the central position that the police had occupied during Al-Ma'muri's tenure (Iraqi Press Agency, 13 December).

Officials from the Al-Sadr Trend -- which has taken the lead in praising the late police commander for his professionalism and impartiality -- and elsewhere have raised concerns about the role of the leading parties in the assassination and the impact of the government's plans for replacing Al-Ma'muri. Crowds turned out in AlHillah, Karbala', and Al-Najaf to pay their respects to Al-Ma'muri's remains as they made their way to interment (Buratha News, 10 December).

Babil MP Ahmad al-Mas'udi, who represents the Al-Sadr Trend, urged the Interior Ministry to choose a "professional, independent person" to avoid "ruining all that the Babil police leadership built while Qays al-Ma'muri headed it" by appointing party-affiliated commanders like those in Karbala' and Al-Diwaniyah (www.al3marh.net, 12 December).

Ghalib al-Da'mi, a Sadrist assemblyman from Karbala', speculated that Al-Ma'muri had uncovered crimes that "might cause great embarrassment to officials in the Al-Maliki government" when Babil police discovered a gang allegedly affiliated with the Prime Minister's Islamic Da'wah Party (IDP) that was responsible for killing "many innocent people, Sunni and Shiite, opposed to the Iranian program" (Al-Hayah, 14 December).

A local politician promoting the arming of tribal groups in support of the government tied the assassination to al-Ma'muri's decision to close local offices of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council, the IDP, and the Badr Organization on the grounds they were storing "explosives and heavy weapons" (Nahrain, 10 December).

At the time of Al-Ma'muri's assassination Baghdad had reportedly been seeking to remove him from office.

"I cannot point the fingers of suspicion at any faction," Sadrist MP Al-Mas'udi said of the assassination. "However, I can state that, according to my information, there was an administrative order issued, perhaps by the cabinet, to remove Major General Al-Ma'muri or relieve him of his post" (www.al3marh.net, 12 December).

An internet report cited "informed sources" as saying that Al-Maliki had recently acceded to demands from "some parties and trends" and ordered the transfer of the police commander to Baghdad "without the knowledge of the Interior Ministry." The order was reportedly rescinded after local officials, police, and tribes objected that the transfer served only the interests of "certain (political) parties wishing to control the police" (Iraqi Press Agency, 9 December). '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkish Ambassador: US was Helpful; 600 attacks a week in Iraq; Surge Exiled One Million Iraqis to Syria where they Face Starvation

The Turkish ambassador to the United States, Nabi Sensoy, said Wednesday that the US military provided real time intelligence to Turkey and was 'very helpful' in allowing Turkey to launch attacks on alleged Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) sites inside Iraq. He denied that the Turks had given the US military too little notice of its planned Sunday air raids, saying that the two militaries were in close contact. (Obviously, there is no point in the US providing 'real time' intelligence unless Turkey strikes immediately, so Sensoy's point seems well taken). The Nuri al-Maliki government in Baghdad condemned the Turkish military's incursion into northern Iraq on Tuesday, after the air strikes, as having "added insult to injury."

The Turkish actions deeply embarrassed US Secretary of State Condi Rice, who was on trip to Iraq to reinforce reconciliation among ethnic and religious groups when Turkey struck, twice. The leader of Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Authority, Massoud Barzani, cancelled his meeting with her and complained of the Turkish attacks as war crimes. The LA Times reports that Condi on Wednesday warned Turkey against actions that would have the effect of destabilizing northern Iraq. That is the only part of Iraq that is relatively calm (excepting Kirkuk Province).

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that according to the lunar, Muslim calendar, the Eid al-Adha or Feast of Sacrifice in memory of God's sparing of Abraham's son, which Muslims are now commemorating, also marks the anniversary of the execution of Saddam Hussein. In Tikrit, dozens of Iraqis, including local tribal chiefs (presumably of the Al-Bu-Nasr), visited the tomb of Saddam at al-Awjah. The Iraqi Baath Party called for international commemorations of Saddam Hussein's 'martyrdom.'

Al-Hayat also says that the so-called "Army of Islam" guerrilla group in Iraq released a video showing how one of its leading snipers shoots down US troops.

The United States military in Iraq has arrested and imprisoned 30,000 or so Iraqis, the majority of them Sunni Arabs. That is 0.1% of the entire Iraqi population! Marine Maj. Gen. Doug Stone says he fears that many of those detained are moderates or simply fought because they were paid to, and that holding so many of them together for very long may actually create more hardened terrorists.

Some 23 Iraqis were killed by bombings and sniping on Tuesday, including more than one attack in Diyala province and four killed and wounded 7 in a bombing in Baghdad itself. Reuters has more on recent violence in Iraq.

The guerrilla movement in Iraq is generating a steady 600 attacks a week using bombs, small-arms, mortars and sniping. This number has not changed during the past six weeks, and although it is lower than the rate in September, it is a very significant number of attacks. Roadside bomb attacks in specific are down, but there is no change in the number of over-all attacks. The Iraqi government statistics show 600 civilian deaths a month (the US military's statistics are lower).

The US troop escalation that began last February seems to be implicated in the displacement of nearly one million Iraqis to Syria between January and October of this year, adding to the nearly 450,000 that fled there in 2006. This is according to projections from a United Nations weighted survey of nearly 800 refugees. Some 78% of those interviewed in Syria said that they came from Baghdad.

Many of the refugees are from the white collar middle class, and are the people Iraq can least afford to lose. Most of them are only 3 months or less from exhausting all their saving and being thrown into complete destitution. Children are not being educated, and literacy is falling dramatically in the next generation. Many girls are forced into 'survival sex,' i.e. prostitution.

How the US 'surge' drove almost one million Iraqis to Syria last spring and summer is a great mystery, and casts severe doubt on its political success. A significant proportion of these one million Surge Victims appear to have been Baghdad Sunnis, since from January of 2007 through July 2007 the US military admits that Baghdad went from being 65% Shiite to being 75% Shiite. Since another 500,000 left between July and October, depending on what proportion of those were Sunnis, Baghdad could now be even more than 3/4s Shiite. The Sunnis are not going to take this lying down, and the 'surge' seems to me to have set the stage for 1) a violent return of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Arabs to their usurped homes in Baghdad and 2) therefore a second Battle for Baghdad as soon as the US forces in Iraq are too weak to prevent it.

The UN report preliminary data are here (.pdf).

Finally, McClatchy pointed out this week that the relative reduction of violence, especially in some districts of the capital of Baghdad, has brought no tangible political and ethnic reconciliation.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Was Rice's trip to Iraqi Kurdistan Deliberately Sabotaged?

So when we left off the story yesterday, US Secretary of State Condi Rice had just made a surprise visit to the northern oil city of Kirkuk, apparently to congratulate the provincial council for a move toward Kurdish-Arab reconciliation. But while Condi was doing that, the Turkish army invaded Iraq! And then the president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Authority, Massoud Barzani angrily refused to meet Secretary Rice, saying that the US had given Turkey the 'green light' to attack Kurdistan and that the incursion was a 'crime.' I guess that means Barzani is calling Rice a criminal

Look, it is absolutely impossible that Condi plans out a trip to Kirkuk and a meeting with Barzani with full knowledge that while she is there, Turkey will send 500 Turkish soldiers into northern Iraq to occupy the villages of Kaya Retch Binwak, Janarok and Gelly Resh. Or even that when she set out on her trip, she knew that Turkey was planning to bomb Iraqi Kurdistan on Sunday, killing 3, wounding 8, and displacing 300 Kurdish villagers. (Turkey maintained that these villages were havens for the Kurdish Workers Party guerrilla (PKK) guerrilla group, which Ankara accuses of making cross-border raids to kill dozens of Turkish troops in the past few months.)

So there are only two possibilities. The first is that this whole affair is a SNAFU. Let us imagine that the US military is concerned about Barzani helping PKK guerrillas kill NATO troops (yes, Turkey is in NATO and a close US ally for decades). They complain to Irbil and Barzani blows them off. And the US military takes a little revenge on Barzani by giving the Turks real time intelligence on PKK movements. The Turks interpret this gesture as a green light for them to attack Iraq. In the meantime, the State Department has set up a secret trip to Kirkuk and Irbil for Condi.

That could explain Sunday's bombing raid, which was not a good omen for Rice's trip. But it can't explain Tuesday's ground invasion, which is an obvious provocation and done after it became known that Rice was in Kirkuk.

So in my view Turkey is trying to drive a wedge between the US and Barzani, and Turkish chief of staff Yasar Buyukanit deliberately embarrassed Secretary Rice and ruined her trip to celebrate Kurdish-Arab reconciliation (a reconciliation that is not actually good news for Ankara, which does not want to see the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government annex Kirkuk).

If the bombing raid was also not a SNAFU but was a deliberate attempt to thwart Rice's good feeling tour in Iraqi Kurdistan, then that would point to the Turkish military having received advance warning from someone in the US government about Rice's secret trip. That is, it would point to spying. That in turn would raise the question of whether there are relatively high USG officials who had knowledge of her secret itinerary, and who have an interest in bolstering the ties of the US with the Turkish military at the expense of Washington's de facto alliance with Barzani in Iraq. I'll bet you State is looking into this fiasco as we speak and if you hear fairly soon that someone high in the department (or another department who has similar clearances) suddenly resigns to spend more time with his family, you can reasonably speculate that he was the source of a leak to Buyukanit--if indeed there was one.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Provided Real Time Intelligence for Turkish Strikes on Iraq

Ann Scott Tyson and Robin Wright of WaPo confirm from Washington sources that the US provided to the Turkish government 'real time intelligence' on Kurdish Workers Party [PKK] guerrillas holed up in Iraq. That is what Turkish Chief of Staff Yasar Buyukanit had alleged in the wake of Turkish bombing of Iraqi territory. Since the Kurdistan Regional Authority led by Massoud Barzani tacitly supports the PKK, which the US considers a terrorist organization, this provision to Ankara of intelligence from Iraq has to be going by way of Mosul and Baghdad. I.e. the Shiite al-Maliki government and perhaps Shiite Turkmen opposed to the Kurds must be involved in all this somehow. The ominous thing is that the cooperation of former prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari with Turkey on the issue of whether oil-rich Kirkuk province would be joined to the Kurdistan Regional Authority was among the causes for the collapse of his government and his replacement with Nuri al-Maliki. Al-Maliki has very little support in parliament and if the Kurdish deputies start voting against him, his government would be unlikely to survive, at least as a parliamentary regime (he could continue his current pattern of authoritarian rule by cabinet with reference to parliament in theory, though even that might become difficult for him without Kurdish support).

The danger of a US confrontation with Barzani over the PKK, and its implications for the stability of the al-Maliki government, may be among the reasons for US Secretary of State Condi Rice's surprise visit to Kirkuk. The Bush administration is underlining a recent political breakthrough in the oil-rich province, whereby the Arab representatives on the provincial council elected in January 2005 have agreed to stop their boycott of the council in return for Kurdish acquiescence in the appointment of Arabs in provincial government positions. But that agreement is fragile, and wrangling between Kurds and Arabs over other issues such as PKK provocations against neighboring Turkey could pull it apart. Kirkuk province also has a substantial Turkmen population, some large portion of which opposes incorporation of Kirkuk into the Kurdistan Regional Authority.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Zawahiri: Iraq Main field of Jihad Attacks Iran, Muqtada, Nasrallah

The USG Open Source Center summarizes the main points in the new video released by al-Qaeda's number 2 man, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Zawahiri identifies Iraq as the primary field for jihad or holy war and defends the Islamic State of Iraq (radical Sunni Muslims in Iraq) from charges of having been especially vindictive and destructive. Zawahiri also again slams the the Shiites. He sees Iran as hypocritical and actually tacitly cooperating with the US. He dismisses Muqtada al-Sadr as an Iranian cat's paw. He attacks Hasan Nasrallah of Lebanon's Hizbullah. This sectarian approach is typical of the Salafi Jihadis' failures in Iraq, where only a pan-Islamic movement against US occupation could have had a chance of succeeding. Nasrallah is still very popular in the Arab world because his Hizbullah stood up to Israel's attack on Lebanon in summer of 2006, and al-Zawahiri clearly sees Nasrallah as a rival to himself. But Nasrallah has an extensive social welfare program and deputies in the Lebanese parliament, and leads a real if small political movement in a compact territory. Zawahiri is a fugitive whose organization is shadowy and tenuous and on the run. These are the rantings of a loser. The one worrisome thing in the video Zawhiri's conviction that the US presence in Iraq is keeping al-Qaeda alive as a cause, which may well be correct. A whole new generation of jihadis with key terrorism skills is being created by their struggle against what they see as US occupation. That US interests are held harmless from this development in the long run seems unlikely. Zawahiri also calls on the Pakistani military to make a coup against Pervez Musharraf, apparently in hopes that officers of a radical Muslim bent will come to power. (This development is highly unlikely, since Musharraf has by now purged a lot of those elements from the officer corps.)

'Jihadist Website Releases New Al-Zawahiri Interview. . .
Jihadist Websites -- OSC Summary
Monday, December 17, 2007 . . .

Terrorism: Jihadist Website Posts Interview With Al-Qai'da's Ayman al-Zawahiri Entitled "A Review of Events"

On 16 December, a jihadist website posts links to a 98-minute interview with Ayman al-Zawahiri, Al-Qa'ida's second-in-command, entitled "A Review of Events." During the interview, Al-Zawahiri addresses the ongoing developments in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Egypt, and the Palestinian territories, as well as a possible US attack on Iran.

Ayman al-Zawahiri

Asked on "the most serious transformations" in the world today, he says: "The most significant and serious transformations, in my view, are the emergence of the jihadist vanguard of the Islamic Nation as a power that has imposed itself as a reality. This is so because of the increasing jihadist awakening that is sweeping across the Islamic World in rejection of humiliation, the philosophy of surrender, and the culture of defeat; and in defense of the pride of the Islamic Nation. This jihadist vanguard is gaining increasing ground. One can even say that, thank God, they are grouping as one unit.

Commenting if the integration of a number of Islamic groups into Qa'idat al-Jihad Group, is an example of this unity, he says: "There is no doubt about that, especially if you add to this the key role which the fighter group in Libya is undertaking in the field of Da'wah (invitation to the path of God) and the genuine truth -- which is embodied in taking pride in God only and refusing to submit to any one else. Add to that their role in defending the Islamic Nation through sacrificing their souls and money. It is not only in Libya. One can hardly see a spot, particularly when Jihad is involved, where their blessed --and, God willing, acceptable, efforts cannot be seen."

Asked about "the most important field where the jihadist vanguard is struggling against the enemies of Islam," he says: "Iraq is, definitely, the most important field."

Asked to comment on "the state of jihad in Iraq today," he says: "In general, the state of jihad in Iraq is good, thank God. Of course, there are pains that one cannot avoid when on jihad. The most recent reports that arrived from Iraq indicate that the mujahidin are gaining further strength, while the Americans are in a deteriorating situation. These reports come despite their intense efforts to falsify and distort things. Let us just remember the decisions of the British to escape."

Asked on the US reports on the security improvement in Iraq in general and Al-Anbar Governorate in particular, he says: "All this is nothing but a fruitless attempt to cover the US failure in Iraq. The clearest proof is the fact that Petraeus said, in his Congress report, that he might be able to reduce the number of his troops to 100,000 by next summer. But the report stresses that the Iraqi troops are not ready yet and that an immediate withdrawal of the US troops would lead to the collapse of the Iraqi troops. All these statements are an exposed attempt to manipulate words."
The video then shows clips of "resistance" operations in Iraq, including the execution of Iraqi Interior Ministry elements.

Commenting on a tape showing an Iraqi security officer complaining about the inability of his men to bring the situation under control, Al-Zawahiri says: "This proves that the mujahidin made the right decision to target these infidel forces from the very beginning. It also shows how astray are the fatwas --which will not be rewarded in life or the Judgment Day-- that urged the Muslims to joint these troops."

Asked on "accusations" that the "Islamic State in Iraq" is to blame for the conflict with other armed groups, he says: "This accusation needs evidence. The State said it is ready to look into all grievances."

Asked if he 'is trying to acquit the State from these accusations," he says: "I cannot say that any certain side is guilty or not guilty without hearing from both sides. But what I am saying is that the State's approach cannot allow the bloodshed of the innocent and the violation of sanctities. I am saying this in light of my knowledge of the State's key leaders and in light of my knowledge of its stands."

The video then shows unidentified masked gunmen criticizing awakening councils, and criticizing Abd-al-Sattar Abu-Rishah, former head of Al-Anbar Awakening Council. One armed man says: "All people know that his past. He is an immoral man. He is a looter, and a thief. All people know his past. America could not find some one mor e base than him to use."

Al-Zawahiri calls on the Iraqi tribes to confront those whom he described as "traitors" and says the tribe that supports Islam and jihad and confronts any traitor who seeks to exploit its name for forbidden gain will be remembered in the history of Arabs and Muslims with pride and glory.

The video then shows the masked men with one of them asking how has the Untied States been able to control Al-Ramadi. He answers that it did so through economic siege that upset the common people, and those with weak hearts exploited this to incite the people against the "Mujahidin".

Al-Zawahiri is then asked if he has an advice to the "mujahidin" in Iraq. He replies: "Unity under the word of monotheism." Asked on the recent message of Usama Bin Ladin which was interpreted by some people as if Bin Ladin admits of Al-Qa'ida's mistakes and apologizes for them. Al-Zawahiri says at present there is nothing in Iraq that is called Al-Qa'ida, adding that the Al-Qa'ida of Jihad in the Land of the Two Rivers was merged with other groups in the Islamic State of Iraq. He accuses the channel, which was the first to broadcast the message (Al-Jazirah), of manipulating the message by omitting important parts of the speech. He says the omitted parts are very important and those parts could have been briefly mentioned since this channel devotes long times and programs for those who are much less important than Bin Ladin. He also says that the channel interpreted Bin Ladin's speech in a different way than its objective by saying that he is blaming the "mujahidin" of the Islamic State of Iraq although he was directing his speech to all "mujahidin" . Al-Zawahiri also says that the channel sought the views of commentators who are either hostile to, or unsympathetic with Bin Ladin's speech while professionalism requires seeking the opinions of those who oppose and agree with the message.

He urges all those who want to know what the "mujahidin" say only to depend on the "full texts of the mujahidin's messages that they post on the internet."

Asked about his advice to the "mujahdin" of unity under the word of monotheism, Al-Zawahiri says that they should iron out their differences and seek the arbitration of those who have Islamic knowledge and to keep away from the clerics affiliated with the rulers who "recognize the traitor rulers who assisted in besieging Iraq and opened their countries for the Crusader invading forces to launch their attacks from these countries and kill thousands of Muslims in Iraq and Afghanistan."

He then urges the mujahidin in Iraq to continue along the same path that was charted by their predecessors and support the Islamic state in Iraq against the "crusader-Zionist aggression" in Iraq. He also appeals to the Islamic state in Iraq to listen to their brothers open-mindedly and dedicate itself to serving the mujahidin in Iraq.

Al-Zawahiri then appeals to the Ansar al-Sunnah group and their leader Abu-Abdallah al-Shafi'i, saying that the mujahidin are awaiting the unity between the group and the Islamic state in Iraq. "And I tell them: The Islamic State of Iraq is your state, your emirate and your government. Who are you going to unite with if you do not unite with them?"
The interviewer then asks about the "political orientation which the mujahidin in Iraq should adopt particularly since the American crusader forces are about to leave." Responding, Al-Zawahiri says that the Islamic nation in general and the mujahidin elite in particular "will not offer their blood cheaply in the cause of God to be reaped by the likes of Abd-al-Nasir, Al Sa'ud, Bouteflika, and Musharraf."

Asked who the nation should trust, Al-Zawahiri says that the nation should trust the "honest mujahidin" who never backtracked or compromised.

He then appeals to members of the mujahidin groups in Iraq to realize that "the precursors of the caliphate state have begun to loom on the horizon." "And this is what Shaykh Usa ma Bin Ladin was referring to in his latest message, of which this part was not reported by Al-Jazirah despite its importance, when he talked about the redrawing of the region's map," he says.

On the role of Muslim clerics in this "critical stage," he says: "The role of the ulema in this critical stage is to emphasize the rule of the shari'a and rejection of territorial affiliation and nationalist spirit as a basis for discrimination between Muslims." They should, he says, also "emphasize the duty of the Muslims to continue jihad until the expulsion of the infidel invasion forces from Palestine, Afghanistan, Chechnya, and all the lands of Islam."

Asked if he expects the ulema in Iraq to play a certain role, he says: "Of course, they are on the battlefield and they are acquainted with the conspiracies being hatched against Islam and Muslims."

The interviewer then asks about the "fatwa of the mufti of Al Sa'ud on the impermissibly of to go forth to jihad in Iraq and elsewhere." Al-Zawahiri says this fatwa was supported by the "American crusaders." "This is evidence to moral cowardice because if he were a brave man, he would have listed the happenings, events, and parties to make it possible to examine and study what he said," he says.

Al-Zawahiri continues to criticize the mufti of Saudi Arabia and says that he should have remained silent and should not have exposed himself and his regime."

He says that when Saddam Husayn threatened the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it sought the help of the Americans and issued "a dubious fatwa" allowing people to seek the help of the Americans.

He asks the mufti about his opinion of the Saudi initiative, by which the Saudis "recognized Israel and applied pressure on HAMAS to relinquish four fifths of Palestine." He also asks the mufti about "the number of oil barrels" which the Saudi king provided for the "Crusader forces" to invade, destroy, and bombard Iraq and Afghanistan.

While showing footage of King Abdallah of Saudi Arabia shaking hands with Pope Benedict XVI, Al-Zawahiri says that the mufti should have reprimanded King Abdallah for such a visit.

Al-Zawahiri then criticizes the stand of some "jurists" in Algeria who "tied their fate to that of rulers and kings" and failed to realize the tragedy of people in Algeria who made great sacrifices and ended up under "the oppression of butchers who serve US and French interests."

On the US Senate's resolution to partition Iraq, Al-Zawahiri says that "this was a deal that the Crusader invaders struck with traitors, who trade in religion, and secular agents."

He goes on to say that he spoke about this partitioning in his first message after the 11 September events, more than five months before the "invasion of Iraq."

He adds that the American "campaign" is expected to include Iran and Pakistan "to destroy any country that has nuclear projects in the Middle East in order to guarantee Israel's security."

Al-Zawahiri then criticizes the practices of Shiites in Iraq and the building of "gold domes of shrines" which the Shiites build in Iraq and says that had Imam Al-Husayn been alive, he would not have accepted this. He urges them to melt these domes and use their money to help the poor.

He criticizes the practices of Shiite militias in Iraq, which are carried out "under Iranian guidance" and says that they will remain "a disgrace in the history of Islam and even in the history of humanity" because they cooperate with the Americans and "fight under their banner."

Answering a question on Muqtada al-Sadr, Al-Zawahiri describes him as "one of the arms of Iran in Iraq", saying that in 2004 Al-Sadr announced that Al-Mahdi Army will hand over its weapons to the Americans and announced that Al-Mahdi Army is "a civil institution that participates in the political process."

He goes on to say that "the skirmishes" that take place between Muqtada al-Sadr and the Americans are "American-Iranian conflicts over the expansion of powers . "

On ways to stop Shii te-Sunni fighting, Al-Zawahiri says that "the aggressor should be asked to stop his aggression" so as to have the chance to stop fighting.

Asked to elaborate on this, Al-Zawahiri says that those who cooperate with "the Crusader occupier" should stop doing so" and should be engaged in jihad against the Crusaders.

On Kurds in Iraq, Al-Zawahiri says that they are a "genuine part of the Muslim nation" and that every Muslim should take pride in their history. He adds that Kurds should not accept for the Kurdistan of Iraq to be governed by "a secular government that is agent of the Crusaders and that cooperates with Jews."

Al-Zawahiri also criticizes Iran's recognition of the "agent government in Kabul" immediately after it was established and criticizes it for the help it provided for the Americans during its invasion of Afghanistan.

Al-Zawahiri says: "With regard to Iraq, Iran achieved an agreement with the Americans before the latter's entry into Iraq. The agreement provided for partitioning Iraq. The Shiite militias trained, funded, and armed by Iran for years advanced violently and quickly into Iraq following the collapse of the Saddam regime. They were merged into the Iraqi Army and other Iraqi security services. They were and remain the Crusader occupier's paws used to strike at Muslims in Iraq. Despite the repeat of the slogans death to America, death to Israel by Iran, we have not heard a single fatwa from a single Shiite religious authority inside or outside of Iran urging jihad against the Americans in Iraq or Afghanistan. As a matter of fact, Rafsanjani has made a statement expressing respect for the wishes of the Iraqi agents of Iran regarding the continued presence of US troops in Iraq."

Then, Rafsanjani is shown making a statement to this effect. He is also shown saying that the Iranians will not take the lead in eliminating Israel.

Al-Zawahiri adds: "The statement made by Ahmadinezhad regarding the elimination of Israel is indicative of unsubstantiated propaganda. This is because had he been sincere in his desire to eliminate Israel, he would not have shared with it membership of the United Nations, whose Charter provides for respecting the sovereignty of all UN members and their territorial integrity."

Al-Zawahiri describes PA President Mahmud Abbas and PA's Muhammad Dahlan as "agents who are fighting Islam" and who collaborate with the CIA and the Mossad.

Al-Zawahiri adds: "Hasan Nasrallah used the same equivocating language on Palestine."

Then, Hasan Nasrallah is shown speaking while holding a meeting with a foreign dignitary. Nasrallah, speaking in Arabic, with sentence- by- sentence translation into English, is shown saying: "The major issue is Palestine, and this has to do with the Palestinians. We are in no position to decide on behalf of the Palestinians as to what they would accept or would not accept."

Al-Zawahiri says that Hizballah cannot be considered "a national liberation movement."

When asked by the interviewer on whether Iran will get help from the Muslim Ummah in case it comes under US attack, Al-Zawahiri says: "Iran has stabbed the Muslim Ummah in the back. It caused itself and the Shiites following it a historic disgrace. The signs of this stab will remain vivid in the Muslims' memory for a very long time. The strange paradox to which I would like to draw attention is that despite the fact that Iran permitted the Crusader troops to enter Iraq, recognized the agent government there, and pushed its militias to participate in this government's army, security services, and police force, and despite its recognition of the agent government in Afghanistan, it is warning the United States of double retaliation against its interests worldwide if it attacks Iran."

Then, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamene'i is shown making a statement to the effect that if it is attacked, Iran "will threaten all American interests around the globe."

Al-Zawahiri wonders: "Is it religiously impermissible for the Iranian territory to be occupied by the Americans when the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is considered religiously permissible? Is Tehran more important to them than Karbala and Al-Najaf? Why is Khamene'i threatening the United States with double retaliation if the latter attacks Iran when he did not stir a finger when the US shells penetrated the Shrine of Imam Ali, may God honor his face, in Al-Najaf?"

Al-Zawahiri also attacks the Egyptian regime and Jamal Mubarak and their close ties with the United States.

Regarding the Palestine question, Al-Zawahiri says: "The problem does not lie with Mahmud Abbas or the Fall conference, but rather with the politicians of bargaining who recognize Mahmud Abbas as president an d grant him the right to negotiate on the Palestinians' behalf. How can Mahmud Abbas be given the right to negotiate in the name of the Palestinians when everybody knows that he is selling out Palestine?"

With regard to current developments in Pakistan, Al-Zawahiri says: "Musharraf and his regime are reeling, they are in their final days, God willing. Their failure is a part or prerequisite of the US failure in the region. As a matter of fact, what brought about Musharraf's defeat are the uprising and jihad awakening which prevailed in the tribal regions and spread to central Pakistan, thanks to the blessings of the Afghan jihad against the Crusaders in Afghanistan. All that is happening in Pakistan, from arranging the return of Benazir, to the announcement of the state of emergency, to the arrests, to the successive repression measures, constitutes a desperate US attempt to remedy the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

He adds: "I appeal to whoever has concern for Islam in Pakistan to join the mujahidin, back them, and support them, because they are the key to salvation from the rotten and corrupt regime in Islamabad."

Al-Zawahiri goes on to say: "If it is to save Pakistan from the bleak future it is being led into by Musharraf, this army must act against Musharraf." '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Iraqi Parliament Condemns Turkey Turkey says US Authorized Air Strikes on PKK

The Iraqi parliament on Monday condemned Turkish air strikes on what it said were bases of the Kurdish Workers Party inside Iraqi territory. The parliament decried what it called a "cruel" violation of Iraqi "sovereignty." Over two dozen Turkish troops have been killed in recent months by PKK guerrillas, who Ankara says are based in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkish chief of staff Yasar Buyukanit said that the United States gave tacit approval of the strikes by providing Turkey with intelligence on PKK movements. The US responded by saying that it had prior knowledge of the attack but did not authorize it.

The US certainly would be decried in Iraq if it were thought that Washington connived with Turkey at an air strike on Iraqi soil. On the other hand, the US would suffer opprobrium in Turkey if it were seen as doing nothing about a terror threat to Turkey enjoying safe haven in an American-occupied country. Probably both sides will end up hating the US about all this.

The problems with the dual authority being established in Sunni Arab areas-- with tribal Awakening Councils appointing themselves as, often, vigilantes-- became apparent on Monday when a firefight broke out in Bayji between Awakening members and local official police. There really need to be new provincial elections in Iraq so that if any Awakening members are actually popular, they can gain legitimacy at the polls.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Rubin on 'Who is to Blame' on Afghanistan

Juan is traveling and will post later on Monday. Until then, have a look at Barnett Rubin's important essay, "Afghanistan: Who is to Blame?"
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Siddiqui: Musharraf 'Defacing' Pakistan Constitution

The USG Open Source Center translates from Urdu a critical commentator on Pervez Musharraf's 'defacing' of the Pakistan constitution. Musharraf has lifted the state of emergency in preparation for elections, but there are suspicions he will have them rigged. Press restrictions remain in effect.

'Pakistan Commentary Criticizes Musharraf for Defacing Constitution, Judiciary
Commentary by Irfan Siddiqui: "Dagger's Language"
Nawa-e Waqt
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Text

Truth cannot be hidden for a long period and in spite of many efforts, it comes to light sooner or later. Even if the dagger remains silent, the blood cries and its echo is heard all over the world. But here the dagger has itself disclosed the secret.

On 3 November, Musharraf decided to punish the judges for their audacity after being informed by the intelligence sleuths and the attorney general about his impending disqualification as the presidential candidate by the 11-member bench of the Supreme Court. But, the question was as to how this should be done. Earlier, this goal could not be achieved despite filing a presidential reference against deposed Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry on 9 March (2007), summoning Supreme Judicial Council meeting by keeping the chief justice under detention, administering oath to the new chief justice, and imposing many restrictions on Justice Chaudhry. The constitution had stood in the way of the president like a rock.

Therefore, the presidential camp held consultations to get rid of the audacious chief justice and judges, who upholding the constitution, were to declare the chief of army staff (Musharraf) ineligible to contest presidential election for ignoring wider national interest to fulfill the requirements of the "war on terror" (preceding three words in English). Musharraf was told that he had no solution to this issue as president. The prime minister could also do nothing. The cabinet was helpless. Parliament could also extend no help in a case being heard in the Supreme Court. But he could do something as chief of army staff, as his office is above law, constitution, and even his own oath (every armed forces officer takes oath at the time of getting commissioned that he or she will not take part in politics). Therefore, the army chief once again threw the constitution aside and issued Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) for the second time, imposed martial law under the cover of emergency, and despite the presence of the so-called democratic system made himself an autocratic ruler of Pakistan like a chief martial law administrator. It was difficult for him in his capacity as president to get rid of a judge, but now he has removed the chief justice, 50 judges, and also the constitution.

The order proclaiming the state of emergency, which in fact was martial law, said the decisions of the judges were affecting the war on terror, as they ordered to release terrorists and open Lal Masjid (red mosque in Islamabad, which was stormed by the army commandos on 10 July 2007); therefore, this step had become imperative to continue the war on terror with the same enthusiasm. This was tantamount to throwing dust in the eyes of 160 million Pakistanis. They knew that the only motive behind trampling the constitution, depriving them of their fundamental rights, and removing around 50 judges, including the chief justice, was the petition in the Supreme Court questioning Musharraf's eligibility as presidential candidate. Even a layman knew that the attack on the judiciary was aimed to create hurdles in the way of justice so that he could take oath as president for another five-year term.

The president and his team have, however, been giving lame excuses for the actioins taken on 3 November. And now after one month and nine days, while giving an interview to Al-Jazirah television, General (Ret) Musharraf said Justice Chaudhry was trying to remove him from office illegally; therefore, he had to impose a state of emergency in the country on 3 November. "If Chaudhary was allowed to remain in office, you can imagine how much lawlessness, chaos, and turmoil the country would have witnessed," he added.

During the interview, the truth that the president was trying to hide through fake arguments ultimately came out of his mouth. The same thing had happened after 12 October 1999. The arguments he had given at that time said: "The country was going to be bankrupt, foreign exchange reserves were about to end, the country was facing global isolation, and the state was going to disintegrate." He had "created" several other justifications of his 12 October 1999 step (of removing Nawaz Sharif, the then prime minister). Then, one day he suddenly stated: "Had Sharif not removed me as army chief (he had removed Musharraf and appointed Gen Ziauddin as new army chief on 12 October 1999), he would have still been the prime minister." The discerning Pakistanis were aware of this fact even on 12 October 1999, but the president and his lackeys tried to hide a big truth for a long period.

Musharraf's confession of the reality is not a minor thing. Justice Chaudhry had become an irritant for the president, who was made to believe that the top judge's activism (preceding word in English) is becoming a big threat to his autocracy. Therefore, he tore apart the constitution and took all those steps which were not within the parameters of the constitution, law, traditions, and morality. If only Justice Chaudhry was a problem, why were other judges also targeted?

While denying the president's statement, Justice Chaudhry has said: "I was not there on the bench hearing the case regarding his eligibility as presidential candidate." It is a fact that despite having no constitutional and legal bar, he kept himself away from every case involving Musharraf. Had the president an iota of trust in the judiciary, he would have not taken the 3 November step. He had two options: First, to bow to the court verdict. Secondly, to crush the judiciary. He opted for the second. He fabricated excuses for murdering the judiciary, but ultimately the truth has come to light with full force.

There are reports that a major surgery (preceding two words in English) on the Pakistan Constitution is being carried out before lifting the "Martial Law Emergency" on 15 December. At present, the constitution is lying senseless on an operation table and president's legal aides are using surgical blades on it. In a democracy, the constitution can only be amended with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, but it is a "magic house," where long nails of the magicians can tear apart the constitution whenever they like. The constitution going to be restored on 15 June (month as published; constitution to be restored on 15 December) will be too weak to stand on its feet.

After Musharraf's admission of the reality, there is no doubt that the drama (preceding word in English) of emergency and the PCO was only aimed at murdering the judiciary. Under the cover of emergency and the PCO, the constitution is being defaced. All these steps will ultimately need the approval of Parliament. Therefore, the magicians desperately need two-thirds majority in the coming parliament. For this reason, they have planned not to allow Sharif to contest elections so that the PML-Q (Pakistan Muslim League-Qaid-e Azam Group) could walk into the corridors of power quite easily. Maulana Fazlur Rahman (Jamiyat-e Ulema-e Islam-Fazlur Rahman Group chief) and NRO (National Reconciliation Order)'s daughter (Benazir Bhutto, who was given relief through NRO by dropping corruption charges against her) came to the government's rescue. Therefore, forces behind the curtains were making all-out efforts to keep Sharif stuck to boycotting the elections, as this was the only situation in which Musharraf's supporters could be awarded a two-thirds majority. But, this dream has now been shattered.

The magicians did succeed to the extent that they managed to keep Qazi Hussain Ahmad (Jamaat-e Islami chief) and Imran Khan (Pakistan Tahrik-e Insaf chairman) out of the election arena. Had Nawaz-Qazi-Imran formed an electoral alliance, even the huge rigging could not stop a change taking place in the country. The magicians know this. Therefore, they will be somewhat satisfied. But, the PML-N's participation in the elections has at least made it certain that the new assembly will not endorse all the constitutional amendments including the removal of judges.

These people should know that the coming era will not be of the magicians but of those people who will defeat these magicians.

(Description of Source: Rawalpindi Nawa-e Waqt in Urdu -- Privately owned, widely read, conservative Islamic daily, with circulation around 125,000. Harshly critical of the US and India.)'
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Turkey Bombs N. Iraq; Unpopular British Hand over Security Control in Basra

In the far north of Iraq, Turkish warplanes bombed villages that its security specialists say were harboring terrorists of the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). The bombing campaign is the latest in a series of actions that have brought tensions to a boil in the Kurdish-dominated north.

In Iraq's deep south, Britain turns general control of security matters over to Iraqi officials on Sunday in Basra province. This move has little effect in itself on the British troop presence, now 5500 men stationed out at the airport. But PM Gordon Brown has pledged to reduce their numbers to only 2500 next March, and it seem likely most will be gone by the end of 2008.

A recent poll conducted in Basra has little good news in it for the British in the south.

In the poll, only 2 percent of Basra residents felt that the British miitary had had had a positive impact on the security situation in the southern port. Some 86% said that the British impact has been negative! Not suprisingly, 83% said they wanted British troops to leave Iraq altogether. The BBC adds:

' Two-thirds felt security would improve in the short term, while 72% said it would improve in the long term. Only 5% said security would deteriorate following the withdrawal. '

These number really are suggestive of a colonial experiment gone badly wrong. If the British had been in the Iraqi south as helpmeets to Iraqi authorities, as former PM Tony Blair often alleged, it is hard to imagine that the people there would be this hostile.

The US has no troops in either Basra or on the Iraqi-Turkish border, so that the US is not even centrally involved in the two big Iraq stories today.

Bombings and attacks Killed at least 11 persons in Iraq on Saturday.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Obama vs. Bush On How Honesty is the Highest form of Leadership

Hillary Clinton fired the co-chair of her New Hampshire campaign, Bill Shaheen, because he speculated that Barack Obama would be attacked by Republicans for admitting youthful drug use,if he were the nominee. She then apologized to Obama.

But in this controversy, what is forgotten is that our current incumbent also admitted to youthful drug use:

' Bush has said that he did not use illegal drugs at any time since 1974, but he has declined to discuss whether he used drugs before 1974.

A conversation between Bush and an old friend and author, Doug Wead, touched on the subject of use of illegal drugs. In the taped recordings of the conversation, Bush explained his refusal to answer questions about whether he had used marijuana at some time in his past. “I wouldn’t answer the marijuana questions,” Bush says. “You know why? Because I don’t want some little kid doing what I tried.” When Wead reminded Bush that the latter had publicly denied using cocaine, Bush replied, "I haven't denied anything." '

I'd say that we know from this recorded interview that Bush 1) used marijuana in his youth, 2) used "blow" or cocaine in his youth, and 3) is deliberately dishonest about both in public.

We also know that Bush was an alcoholic until he was 40 years old, would go up at parties to little old ladies and ask them how sex is after 50, and fancied himself a ladies man (I think the evangelicals have words like fornication & adultery for that sort of thing, but the evangelicals seem to be selective in choosing the target of such vocabulary).

Of course, if you say you later got religion, and if you are a Republican, all these sins are suddenly forgiven and the nation's newspapers and t.v. pundits and Baptist preachers immediately stop even remembering that they happened.

So everyone reported Bush's condemnation of drug use by athletes on Friday with a straight face, and without making reference to his own drug use. (There is evidence that the alcoholism continued while he was in the White House).

I don't doubt that what Bill Shaheen said is correct, and that the Republicans will play all sorts of dirty tricks on Barack Obama if he is the Democratic nominee. The Republican Party is about velociraptor politics.

But if they did come after Obama for his honesty, I'd reply that they have been led for the past 7 years by someone who did the same things and then stonewalled the public about them. Bush seems to think it is better to teach little children to lie than to be honest with them about the temptations they will face in this society during adolescence.

And the corporate media will never even notice, when they collaborate in the future swiftboating of Obama, that they gave W. a pass because he is a Republican and an elite white male from an old-established political family.

Obama did the right thing in coming clean. Bush did the wrong thing in obscuring the truth. Obama demonstrated leadership. Bush showed himself a political and moral coward, and a hypocrite.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Kurdish Press Freedoms Curtailed

The parliament of the Kurdistan Regional Authority, a part of Iraq, has just passed a very dangerous press law, which has drawn vigorous protests from Iraqi Kurdish journalists. AP reports that:

' Under the measure, journalists can be prosecuted in counterterrorism courts, which could bring the death penalty, and newspapers can be shut down for up to six months and face fines up to $8,200. '

Sawt al-Iraq reports in Arabic that the head of the Kurdish journalists' guild, Farhad `Awni, and 20 editors of major newspapers and magazines, along with professors of Communication at Sulaymaniya University, launched an appeal to Kurdistan Regional Authority leader Massoud Barzani to veto the bill.

Kurdish journalists smell a rat, and suspect that Kurdish politicians will use the law to close down newspapers that criticize them and put journalists in jail whom they do not like.

Their suspicions are not without some foundation. Even under current laws, journalists have been jailed for "libelling" high Kurdish politicians, though Qadir was ultimately released.

Editors of major newspapers protested the law. The USG Open Source Center said, "Twice weekly Hawlati declares that it will close down the paper if the Media law which was endorsed yesterday by the Kurdistan parliament is not amended."

I don't believe that basic civil freedoms will last long in Kurdistan, which is the only part of Iraq where they are even relevant to most people's lives (civil freedoms are hard to maintain with a lot of bombs going off). The horrible thing is how many US and other lives have been lost so that the Kurds could have the freedoms their parliament is now abolishing.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Former US interrogator recounts torture cases in Afghanistan and Iraq

The USG Open Source Center translates an interview in the Spanish newspaper El Mundo with Damien Corsetti, a former private in the US army who served as an interrogator and was charged with crimes. He says he witnessed torture but did not commit it himself. He also says that most of the individuals he interrogated had nothing to do with al-Qaeda or the Taliban. Many of the practices Corsetti says he witnessed are already illegal. Others would be banned by a new bill passed by the House of Representatives, which George W. Bush has threatened to veto. The bill would place the Central Intelligence Agency under the same rules as obtain for the US military and would disallow waterboarding, mock executions, and sexual humiliation. I repeat, Bush has pledged to veto this legislation.

'Former US interrogator recounts torture cases in Afghanistan and Iraq
El Mundo (Internet Version-WWW)
Monday, December 10, 2007 . . .
Document Type: OSC Translated Text . . .


Former US interrogator recounts torture cases in Afghanistan and Iraq

Discharged US army private Damien Corsetti has described the "morally unacceptable" cases of physical and psychological torture he says he witnessed as an interrogator at the prisons of Bagram in Afghanistan and Abu-Ghurayb in Iraq. Speaking in an interview with a Spanish paper, he said the vast majority of the individuals he questioned in the course of his duties "had nothing to do with either the Taleban or Al-Qa'idah" and that while he never took part in acts of abuse, many were tortured "to make them suffer, not to get information out of them". The following is the text of the report on the interview with Corsetti published by the Spanish popular liberal newspaper El Mundo website on 10 December; subheading as published:

Fairfax (Virginia): Damien Corsetti looks at me with his small eyes and says: "Look, they leave us alone in this room, they give me a roll of duct tape to tie you to the chair, I turn off the light and in five hours you sign a piece of paper for me saying that you're Usamah Bin-Ladin".

It is a Thursday night. Damien Corsetti - who, according to The New York Times was nicknamed "The King of Torture" and "The Monster" by his colleagues at Bagram prison, in Afghanistan - is sitting down having a glass of wine in a French restaurant in Fairfax, on the outskirts of Washington. Four days ago, this US private arrived on the outskirts of Washington from North Carolina, where he had been living since September 2006, when he was discharged from the army following a trial in which he was found not guilty of the charges of dereliction of duty, maltreatment, assault and performing indecent acts with prisoners at Bagram.

Now, Corsetti - who was also under investigation in the Abu-Ghurayb torture case - only wants to put his life "in order". It is a difficult task. Because first he will have to forget the torture to which he says he was a witness in Afghanistan of prisoners such as Al-Qa'idah leader Omar al-Faruq. "The cries, the smells, the sounds are with me. They are things that stay with you forever", he recalls.

Corsetti arrived in Afghanistan on 29 July 2002. He was a military intelligence soldier, not an interrogator. "But the army needed reliable interrogators, because most interrogators do not meet security requirements. They are not reliable. So we arrived there". A five-hour course in Afghanistan and, at 22, Corsetti began trying to extract information from the prisoners in the jail - prisoners who, in his opinion, "in 98 per cent of cases had nothing to do with either the Taleban or Al-Qa'idah".

That is how Corsetti found himself interrogating prisoners at the jail. Many of them were people who had nothing to do with (George W.) Bush's war on terror, like his first prisoner, whose name he still remembers: Khan Zara. "He was a peasant and grew opium. But he was there three months until he told us. Do you know how I found out. Because of his hands. His hands were full of calluses. Those are not the hands of a terrorist".

Other prisoners include a farmer who had put mines on his land to kill his neighbour, with who he had a long-standing family dispute, and an Afghan who had bombs in his house to fish in the river. They were people like Dilawar, a taxi driver detained in 2002 who had nothing to do with the Taleban and who died after four days of beatings from US soldiers.

Because Bagram is a very tough prison. "Each prisoner has in his cell a carpet measuring 1.2 m by 2.5 m. And they spend 23 hours a day sat on it, in silence. If they speak, they are chained to the ceiling for 20 minutes and black visors are put on them so they can't see and protectors are put on their ears so they can't hear. They are taken down to the basement once a week, in groups of five or six, to shower them. It's done to drive them crazy. I almost went crazy", recalls Corsetti. Apart from those normal cells, in the basement of the prison there are six isolation cells, plus two rooms for who the former soldier describes as "special guests".

But Bagram has an underworld in which the CIA tortures the leaders of Al-Qa'idah. "One day I went to an interrogation session and as soon as I arrived I knew that it was not a normal case. There were civilians, among them a doctor and a psychiatrist. The prisoner was called Omar al-Faruq, an Al-Qa'idah leader in Asia who had been brought to the prison by one of those agencies", recalls Corsetti. "I don't want to go into details because it could be very negative for my country, but he was brutally beaten - daily. And tortured by other methods. He was a bad man, but he didn't deserve that". Al-Faruq escaped from Bagram in action which, according to some, was tolerated by the USA and was killed in April 2006 by the British in the Iraqi city of Basra.

Corsetti says that he never took part in the torture. "My sole job was to sit there and make sure the prisoner didn't die. But there were several times when I thought they were about to die, when they were interrogated by those people who have no name and who work for no-one in particular. It's incredible what a human being can take". A resistance similar to that of the memory of those torture sessions. Because Corsetti, a veteran of two wars, says: "I have seen people die in combat. I shot at people. That is not as bad as seeing someone tortured. Al-Faruq looked at me while they tortured him and I have that look in my head. And the cries, the smells, the sounds, they are with me all the time. It is something I can't take in. The cries of the prisoners calling for their relatives, their mother. I remember one who called for God, for Allah, all the time. I have those cries here, inside my head".

"In Abu-Ghurayb and Bagram they were tortured to make them suffer, not to get information out of them". And the fact is that at times the torture had no other goal that "to punish them for being terrorists. They tortured them and didn't ask them anything". That is the case of the practice known as "the submarine": to simulate the drowning of the prisoner. "They have them hooded and they pour water on them. That makes it very difficult to breath. I think you can't die with the submarine. I certainly never saw anyone die. However, they do cough like crazy because they are totally submerged in water and that gets on their lungs. Perhaps what it can give you is serious pneumonia". The civilians who took part in the interrogations used the submarine whenever they wanted. They gave it to them for five or 10 minutes and didn't ask anything".

Other torture included using extreme cold and heat. "I remember one of my prisoners trembling with cold. His teeth wouldn't stop chattering. I put a blanket on him and then another, and another, and his teeth never stopped chattering, never stopped. You could see that man was going to die of hypothermia. But the doctors are there so that they don't die, so as to be able to torture them one more day". At other times, "they put them under blinding lights that worked mechanically, giving out flashes".

"They are going to kill your children"

An important subject was that of psychological torture, administered by psychiatrists. "They tell them they are going to kill their children, rape their wives. And you see on their faces, in their eyes, the terror that that causes them. Because, of course, we know all about those people. We know the names of their children, where they live - we show them satellite photos of their houses. It is worse than any torture. That is not morally acceptable under any circumstances. Not even with the worst terrorist in the world", says Corsetti, before adding: "Sometimes, we put one of our women (female US military personnel) in burqas and we made them walk through the interrogation rooms and we told them: 'That is your wife'. And the prisoner believed it. Why wouldn't they! We had those people going without sleep for a whole week. After two or three days with no sleep, you believe anything. In fact, it was a problem. The interpreters couldn't understand what they were saying. The prisoners were having hallucinations. Because, of course, this is not like if you or me go three days without sleep when we're partying. I've gone five days without sleep when I've been partying. But this is different. You're in a cell where they let you sleep only a quarter of an hour every now and then. With no contact with the outside world. Without seeing sunlight. Like that, a days seems like a week. Your mental capacity is destroyed".

In the opinion of Corsetti, the only thing his experience as an interrogator taught him "is that torture doesn't work. One thing is losing your temper and punching a prisoner, another is to commit these acts of brutality. In Bagram we managed to find out about an Al-Qa'idah plan to blow up dozens of oil tankers across the world. We smashed the plot so well that they only managed to attack one, the French oil tanker Limburgh, in Yemen in October 2002. And we managed to get a guy to tell us without laying a finger on him".

(Description of Source: Madrid El Mundo (Internet Version-WWW) in Spanish -- independent national daily) '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Pelosi on Republicans: They Like this War

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that she has been surprised at the depth of support for the Iraq War among Republicans in the House of Representatives. AP writes:

' "They like this war. They want this war to continue," Pelosi, D-Calif., told reporters. She expressed frustration over Republicans' ability to force majority Democrats to yield ground on taxes, spending, energy, war spending and other matters. "We thought that they shared the view of so many people in our country that we needed a new direction in Iraq," Pelosi said at her weekly news conference in the Capitol. "But the Republicans have made it very clear that this is not just George Bush's war. This is the war of the Republicans in Congress." Asked to clarify her remarks, Pelosi backed off a bit. "I shouldn't say they like the war," she said. "They support the war, the course of action that the president is on." "And that was a revelation to me," she said, "because I thought the American people's voices were so — and still are — so strong in this regard." '

I don't doubt that some Republicans like the Iraq War. It after all got a lot of them elected, and has thrown a hefty part of the $500 billion spent on the war so far to their corporate sponsors.

But what really strikes me about the speaker's remarks is her misreading of the Republicans. She appears to have thought that they had mostly turned against the war in their hearts, and would become allies of the Democrats in ending it. In other words, she seems to have blamed Bush for the war and to have assumed that the Republican representatives would now want to run away from Bush.

But for all the Caesar-like power that Bush claims for his imperial executive, he could not have steam-rollered the country into war if he had not had enablers in the then Republican-controlled Congress.

I understand how one gets to be collegial across the aisle in a body like Congress. That might help explain why Pelosi did not initially believe that her Republican colleagues could possibly be so short-sighted or venal as to actively support the war.

But you just have to contrast the way that the Republicans took power in the House in 1994 with a disciplined plan that shifted resources radically to the Right and took no hostages among their foes. They even dared impeach (in the lesser sense) a very popular Democratic president, as a way of making sure Al Gore never became his successor. In other words, they came to town as ravenous as a horde of marauding Mongols and as mean as a canyon full of rattlesnakes.

Pelosi came to power, in contrast, with a namby-pamby pledge not to impeach Cheney or Bush (and she stiffed Dennis Kucinich, who quite rightly wanted at least to pursue the former). She came to power with no apparent plan to strengthen the key Democratic constituencies or throw resources to them.

And now a year after the Dems took the House back for the first time in 12 years, the Democratic Speaker suddenly realizes that she is facing a phalanx of determined warmongers.

Many (not all) Republicans view themselves as benefitting from prolonging the war. As long as it is still going on, they can't be accused of having lost it. As long as it is still going on, they may yet show a skeptical American public, or at least the part of it that funds political campaigns, some benefit. As long as it goes on, they can hope to postpone the catastrophe long enough so that if they do lose the presidency, it will tar that Democratic incumbent and help restrict him or her to a single term.

And she thinks they want to end the war?

You have a sinking feeling that a small band of nice gentle hobbits is facing off against the Orcs of Mordor, without any magic rings or even just ordinary armament, and without any over-arching strategy.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Muqtada Hits the Books; Said to aim at one day being Ayatollah

The Associated Press reports that Sayyid Muqtada al-Sadr has gone back to his studies of Shiite law and jurisprudence in Najaf. He began work toward becoming an independent jurisprudent (mujtahid) in 2000 under the supervision of Muhammad Ishaq Fayyad (an Afghan grand ayatollah), AP says, but since 2003 his political duties have taken him away from his studies.

I should explain some things about how the system works. The study toward becoming a mujtahid or jurisprudent is not the same as becoming an ayatollah. An independent jurisprudent has the degrees ("permissions" from his teachers to teach the books he mastered with them). He can engage in independent legal thinking and is forbidden to blindly follow any other cleric-- unlike the laity without a formal training in Shiite law, who are commanded to 'emulate' or obey implicitly the rulings of a trained religious jurisprudent.

You can be an independent jurisprudent without being an ayatollah. Muqtada probably does not really hold the rank of hujjatu'l-Islam, though many of his followers refer to him that way out of respect. Ayatollah, in turn, is a fairly senior rank you would reach after many years of teaching and writing. You have to produce a manual of ritual and legal practice for the laity, or Tawdih al-Masa'il (clarification of issues). You have to have a fair following among laypeople. And you have to enjoy the esteem of the already-existing ayatollahs. (It helps, but it is not a prerequisite, to be from a prominent clerical family or to be a putative descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, or Sayyid.)

Even if he finishes his studies and becomes a mujtahid or independent jurisprudent, Muqtada al-Sadr would under ordinary circumstances be many years away from becoming an ayatollah. It is not
even clear that Muqtada is capable of producing the kind of detailed scholarship that ordinarily is necessary to win the title of ayatollah. He does not have the reputation of deep scholar.

It may be that Muqtada's political position will cause people to call him an ayatollah before he really earns the rank, but that will be a political effect, not an ordinary working of the religious hierarchy.

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Muqtada's rival who is much his senior in age, is much more likely to become an ayatollah in the next decade.

Above mere 'ayatollah' is the position of Grand Ayatollah. There are four persons with this rank in Najaf. There are a limited number of Grand Ayatollahs in the world. Since the rank is by popular acclamation, there are disputes about who has reached that level.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

40 Dead, 125 Wounded in Amara Bombings; Bombings in Baghdad leave 30 Dead or Wounded

Militiamen detonated three car bombs in downtown Amara on Wednesday, killing over 40 persons and wounding 125. The southern Shiite city of Amara--capital of Maysan province--has seen fighting between the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps (or police recruited from the Badr Corps), as part of a contest between their parent parties, the Sadr Movement and the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq for control of the south of Iraq.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, writes al-Zaman in Arabic, was at that time visiting the southern city of Basra not far away. During his visit, Basra airport took heavy mortar fire.

The Amara police chief was immediately fired, as Iraqi observers in Baghdad concluded that such a coordinated triple bombing could only occur if the police had themselves been infiltrated (i.e. by whatever militia or guerrilla group did the bombing).

Guerrillas also carried out several bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad on Wednesday. McClatchy says, "5 civilians were killed and 13 others wounded in a parked car bomb in Ghadeer neighborhood east Baghdad around 3,30 pm. A policeman was injured when gunmen opened fire targeting a police patrol in Doura neighborhood south Baghdad around 5,30 pm. 3 employees were injured when gunmen opened fire targeting their car in Al Tobchi neighborhood west Baghdad around 4,30 pm. 3 civilians were injured when a mortar shell hit Al Hodood club building in AL Qanat area east Baghdad around 7,30. Police found 5 anonymous bodies in the following neighborhoods of Baghdad . . ."

Reuters reports some other incidents, including at Mosul.

Hannah Allam reports that illiteracy is increasing among Iraqi refugee children in Syria.

I reiterate, the US Congress bears a lot of responsibility for this situation and should be appropriating funding to make sure those Iraqi children our war displaced to Syria are getting food and education. Wouldn't that be part of 'liberating ' them, on which the US has been willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars, primarily on munitions? How about a billion dollars for like food and schooling?

Steve Simon and Jonathan Stevenson argue that the lesson of Vietnam actually is that the US needs to get out of Iraq if it is to maintain its global prestige and power.

In that regard, "Welshman argues that the British are right to declare victory in Basra and go home-- and that if the US is smart it will do exactly the same thing.

Farideh Farhi has more on the lack of an Iranian nuclear program. She shows that remarks of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to American scholars and politicians have been distorted by propagandists such as Dennis Ross. But it does turn out that Rafsanjani frankly told the Americans in 2005 that Iran had no weapons program, and did not need one, but that it did want to close the fuel cycle.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, a frank assessment of the dire situation of the French army in Egypt after Bonaparte suddenly departed for France.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Ayatollah Huckabee's Fatwa

In Shiite Iran, only a Shiite may be president. Not a Sunni Muslim, not a Christian, and not a secularist. Article 115 of the current Iranian constitution says:

' Article 115

The President must be elected from among religious and political personalities possessing the following qualifications: Iranian origin; Iranian nationality; administrative capacity and resourcefulness; a good past-record; trustworthiness and piety; convinced belief in the fundamental principles of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the official [religion or ] madhhab of the country. '

Mike Huckabee seems to differ little from the ayatollahs in his willingness to deploy religious orthodoxy as a weapon to exclude others from high political office. Ayatollah Huckabee has issued his fatwa against a wretched heresy.

Here's the view from Salt Lake City: Huckabee is using Mitt Romney's Mormonism against him in a cynical bid to exploit the religious bigotry of the Protestant Right against Mormons. Excerpt from the article of Thomas Burr:

' Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister, aired a TV commercial in Iowa recently telling voters he is a "Christian leader," a move that could be seen as a veiled hit on Romney, whose faith is viewed as heretical by some Protestant evangelicals. And Huckabee has so far refused to say whether he believes the LDS Church is a cult, as his Southern Baptist religion labels the church. In Sunday's New York Times Magazine, Huckabee goes even further when asked if he believes Mormons are cultists. While first saying he didn't know much about Mormonism, Huckabee then asks the reporter in an "innocent voice": "Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?" Some political observers say Huckabee, now the leading GOP candidate in Iowa polls, is raising the issues of Romney's faith as a campaign tactic. "I think he knows it's clearly an issue with his base," says Kelly Patterson, director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at the LDS Church-owned Brigham Young University. "He's sending signals through his advertisements and his comments that his base will understand. It's obvious he's making it an issue." '

Huckabee just picked up that accusation against Mormons from some fundamentalist Protestant web site. (See below).

Almost as disgusting as Huckabee's willingness to hype his opponent's personal religious views was the mealy-mouthed statement his campaign put out on the issue:

' In fact, the full context of the exchange makes it clear that Governor Huckabee was illustrating his unwillingness to answer questions about Mormonism and to avoid addressing theological questions during this campaign.’'

But in fact there is no context that would change what Huckabee told the interviewer, which implied that he thinks Mormons are heretics, with the further implication that it is undesirable to have a heretic as president. (Of course, from the point of view of Baptist theology, most presidents have been heretics.)

Having failed to put the controversy to rest with his lame press release about the "full context," Huckabee then "apologized" to Romney, saying he would never make another candidate's religion an issue and that he wasn't aware that his remark would appear in the interview. But since the remark was made in the course of an interview, it is not plausible that Huckabee did not think it would appear. And, I am suspicious of this apology because its main effect will be to alter the headlines on Thursday from "Huckabee calls Romney a Heretic" to the more sympathetic "Huckabee apologized to Romney for Religious Slur." As you can tell, IC is not falling for it.

Of course, the irony is that Romney is also perfectly willing to cut out the secular "heretics" and the Muslims from high public office. The Republican candidates seem to be running on who can be the most religiously narrow-minded.

A secular person or a Buddhist might well argue that since all Christians believe God the father created all beings, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that they all believe all beings are in that sense siblings, including any two beings you'd like to pick. Only if Huckabee believed God the father did not create the dark angel would his own gibe at Romney be justified.

As for what Mormons really believe on this score, see below. The only thing I care about with regard to a candidate's religion is that he not try to use high political office to impose it on the rest of us. In that regard, none of the candidates scares me more than Huckabee, and if I were a biologist I'd be very worried what he would do to federal funding of that field-- a field which is crucial to America's economic future.

Below I am mirroring from A Mormon apologetic site the following explanation of the controversy from a Mormon point of view:

'Is Satan the Brother of Jesus?

by W. John Walsh

Is Jesus the brother of Satan?

This is a common question asked by those exposed to Anti-Mormon literature. Anti-Mormons often twist our doctrines out of context to make people falsely believe that Latter-Day Saints denigrate Jesus and consider Satan and the Lord to be equals. Of course, anyone familiar with our beliefs about Jesus Christ knows that we have the utmost respect and reverence for Our Savior and Redeemer.

First, Jesus Christ is the Only Begotten Son of God the Father (and is therefore divine) and the mortal virgin Mary. Satan, a malignant spirit, does not share this parental heritage of Jesus, and cannot be considered divine in any respect. Therefore, in the usual way that we speak of brothers and sisters, Jesus and Satan are not brothers.

However, Latter-day Saints believe that God is our Father in Heaven. Before we came to this world, we all lived as spirits under his care and guidance. We believe that God begat or created the spirits of Jesus, Lucifer, and all of the human family as his children. Our Heavenly Father is literally the father of our spirits. Jesus Christ is considered the preeminent "firstborn" or "firstbegotten" (see Hebrews 1:4-6; Firstborn in the Spirit)

Even though God the Father created all of our spirits, we were not equal in that premortal state. Jesus was a member of the Eternal Godhead, through his own innate worthiness, and created the universe under the Father’s direction. The Godhead is comprised of our Heavenly Father, his Son Jesus Christ, and the Holy Ghost. Since the Fall of Adam, the Father has represented himself to the world through Jesus Christ. Jesus was Jehovah, the God of the Old Testament.

Lucifer, who was never a member of the Godhead like Jesus, rebelled against God, and was forever cast out. He became Satan, our adversary. Unlike Jesus or us, Lucifer will never be born into a physical body.

Latter-day Saint scriptures summarize this issue as follows:

AND I, the Lord God, spake unto Moses, saying: That Satan, whom thou hast commanded in the name of mine Only Begotten, is the same which was from the beginning, and he came before me, saying--Behold, here am I, send me, I will be thy son, and I will redeem all mankind, that one soul shall not be lost, and surely I will do it; wherefore give me thine honor.

But, behold, my Beloved Son, which was my Beloved and Chosen from the beginning, said unto me--Father, thy will be done, and the glory be thine forever.

Wherefore, because that Satan rebelled against me, and sought to destroy the agency of man, which I, the Lord God, had given him, and also, that I should give unto him mine own power; by the power of mine Only Begotten, I caused that he should be cast down;

And he became Satan, yea, even the devil, the father of all lies, to deceive and to blind men, and to lead them captive at his will, even as many as would not hearken unto my voice. (The Pearl of Great Price, Moses 4:1-4)

So it can be said that Jesus and Lucifer were brothers, in the sense of both being spiritually begotten by the Father, but it is a misrepresentation to say so without giving the contextual background. Whatever similarities in background exist between Jesus and Satan pale compared to the differences. Jesus is the Beloved and Chosen, who is the Only Begotten Son of God in the flesh.'
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Rubaie: No Permanent Bases; Bombing Near Allawi's Compound; Basra Christians cancel Christmas Celebrations

Iraq's national security adviser, Muwaffaq al-Rubaie, said Tuesday that the Iraqi nation would never permit permanent US military bases in that country. He named some areas where there would be continuing US support for the Iraqi military. The announcement does not envision an early departure of US forces, and seems mainly intended to blunt criticisms of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq by the Sadr Movement for being to cozy with the Americans (see yesterday's entry).

A suicide bomber detonated his payload Tuesday morning at a checkpoint near the homes of secular ex-Baathist politician Iyad Allawi and secularist Salih al-Mutlak of the National Dialogue Council. Supporters of Allawi, who was abroad, charged that the attack was an assassiation plot. Two persons were killed and 12 wounded in the explosion.

Al-Hayat, writing in Arabic, darkly hints that the bombing came as a response to a joint letter written by Allawi, Sunni Arab leader Adnan Dulaimi and others last Saturday. They had made an appeal to George W. Bush to withdraw support from the government of prime minister Nuri al-Maliki, charging that it was a vehicle for Iranian influence in Iraq and raised the specter of "religious fascism."

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the man who tried to organize a tribal "Awakening Council" in the Shiite holy city of Najaf south of Baghdad was arrested by the Najaf authorities. They maintained that they needed to issue a license for such activities. At the same time, a tribal leader in Diyala Province complained publicly that the capital of Baquba has been infiltrated by Iranians. (This charge is not plausible, but many Sunni Iraqis have difficulty accepting that Shiite Iraqis are not being supplemented by Iranian Shiite immigrants.

The AP report linked above also says:

' Gunmen on motorcycles fatally shot the head of Iraq's largest psychiatric hospital as he was returning home from work late Monday, police and a Health Ministry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they feared reprisal. Dr. Ibrahim Mohammed Ajil, believed to be in his 50s, was the head of Rashad hospital, Iraq's largest and well-known mental institution, which lies on the outskirts of the sprawling Sadr City district of Baghdad. According to figures from the Iraqi Health Ministry released earlier this year, 618 medical employees, including 132 doctors, as well as medics and other health care workers, have been killed nationwide since 2003. '

McClatchy reports that the killing of two Christians in the southern port city of Basra has caused the local archbishop to urge Christians to avoid decorations and gift-giving this Christmas, as an act of mourning. The two bodies were found in a district controlled by the Mahdi Army militia.

Reuters reports that formerly warring Shiite militias in the southern port city of Basra have called a truce. My own guess is that they believe such rhetoric of sweet reasonableness will hasten the departure of the British troops (there are still 5500 out at the airport, scheduled to go down to 2500 by March). It is also possible that, like crime families in New York, each has established a 'turf' within which it runs protection rackets and does gasoline and kerosene smuggling, so that the 'truce' is just a recognition of current turf boundaries. But obviously if any of them tried to expand into someone else's territory, it would ignite fighting. I have seen the value of the gasoline smuggling and embezzlement from the state oil company by militias estimated at $2 billion a year. That these activities have suddenly ceased is not plausible.

The allegations by some interviewees that there isn't much militia violence in Basra does not accord with other reports, of waves of assassinations, killings of unveiled women, and occasional gun battles. (See above). And the idea that the Iraqi 10th Division is likely actually to keep order in the city seems to me overly optimistic based on past behavior. The report, by Aref Mohammad, has some great nuggets of information:

' Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's followers are thought to have the most clout on the streets, while the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council has influence in the security forces and the smaller Fadhila party controls the governorate. Each has a different view on regional autonomy: Sadr opposes it, the Supreme Council wants Basra as part of a Shi'ite region across the south and Fadhila wants autonomy for Basra itself. '

and:

' Faction leaders, once at daggers drawn, have taken to making conciliatory remarks. "The period of dispute between us and the governor are over. We have good relations with the governor and the Fadhila party," Sheikh Ali al-Suaidi, a senior Sadrist in Basra, told Reuters. Prominent Fadhila member Aqeel Talib said the Sadr movement had "played a positive role in recent weeks". '

Bill Gallagher is scathing on the proposed CNN 'docudrama' on the Bush administration's confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program, a program that has now had to be scrapped because reality has set in. The fictional news was entitled 'We were Warned' and imagined that Iran had gone nuclear. Gallagher is developing an impressive critical voice as a practicing journalist.

(See also Barnett Rubin's critique of Miles O'Brien for a hatchet job piece on CNN in which he compared Al Gore to comedian Jerry Lewis. I also noticed many months ago that CNN let Jeff Greenfield (before he went to CBS) do a shameful piece comparing Barack Obama's wardrobe to that of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. A lot of editors run American "news" mostly as gossip and personal attacks in the service of the big corporations and the American right wing.

Ret. Col. Douglas MacGregor worries that the Sunni Arab awakening councils in Iraq could lay the groundwork for a large scale civil war when the Americans draw down their troops.

McClatchy reports political violence for Tuesday.

Reuters has more.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

"Cole in Salon: The GOP's Iran option is off the table

My column in Salon.com, "The GOP's Iran option is off the table." The subhead is: "Rudy Giuliani was counting on Iran as a weapon of mass distraction in the '08 race. But the flailing Republican right has just been disarmed." Excerpt:

' Republicans have used the alleged nuclear threat posed by Iran to scare the American public and to turn attention away from Iraq, economic troubles and Republican scandals. But the NIE findings have pulled the rug out from under the Grand Old Party.

Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani initially dismissed the NIE, but on Sunday he backtracked substantially on "Meet the Press." He said of Iran, "And of course we don't ... want to use the military option. It would be dangerous; it would be risky." . . .

This is, of course, the same Rudy Giuliani who while campaigning has all but pledged to bomb Iran if elected. It is a "promise" and not a "threat," he has said, that if Tehran appears close to getting a bomb, he will "set them back eight or 10 years." While Giuliani hasn't specified how he would do so, he likely means launching military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities such as the one at Natanz. That message has been accompanied by bluster from Giuliani worthy of a World Wrestling Federation ham in spandex: "We will not beg to negotiate with them. We're going to make them beg to negotiate with us." Such Hulk Hogan-style boasts may play to the Republican base, but Giuliani now seems more aware of the possibility that the war-weary public may not embrace his reckless bravado if he wins his party's nomination for the general election. '

Read the whole thing.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Giuliani, Reagan, and Kissing up to Ayatollahs with fancy Cakes

I just saw this campaign ad for Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign. He says that Iran held US embassy hostages for 444 days. Then they were released within one hour. That was the hour after Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as president, succeeding Jimmy Carter. Giuliani goes on to tell us that this incident shows how you deal with "Islamic terrorists." You get tough on them and don't back down.

The problem with this assertion is that it is not true, and indeed the opposite is true. Gary Sick showed in October Surprise that:

' Piercing the shadowy netherworld of international espionage, Sick has written one of the most controversial and disturbing accounts of political intrigue to appear in recent years. In 1980, William Casey, then campaign manager of the Reagan-Bush ticket, without the knowledge or approval of the legitimate government, arranged a deal with the Iranian government that in return for military equipment, the Iranians would not release the 52 American hostages until Ronald Reagan was safely inaugurated. '

So the hostages weren't released because Reagan was tough on the Iranian regime. They were released because Casey promised that the Republicans would sell Khomeini weapons if they kept the hostages for an extra couple of months and denied Jimmy Carter the sort of diplomatic coup that might have rescued his presidency.

Not only was Reagan not in fact 'tough' on the ayatollahs in Tehran, he later on stole Pentagon weaponry from the warehouses, illegally sold this US military materiel to a terrorist regime (that of Khomeini), then pocketed the money from the illegal arms sales to 'Islamic terrorists' and laundered it through shadowy bank accounts, sending it to far rightwing death squads in Nicaragua.

Besides, they aren't "Islamic" terrorists because Islam forbids terrorism. They might be Muslim terrorists, but then not very good Muslims. When will Giuliani denounce the "Catholic terrorism" of some prominent priests who were active in the Irish Republican Army? Would he talk about "Jewish terrorism" in regard to the blowing up the King David Hotel in Jerusalem?

As for Iran-contra, I feel a golden oldie coming on:

'
And, Shultz told both Rumsfeld and Saddam that the US was trying to curb weapons flows to Iran. Yet it is well known that Israel was supplying Iran with weaponry in return for Iranian oil. Only a little over a year later, Shultz double-crossed Saddam by getting on board with the Iran-Contra weapons exchange, which was suggested by the Israelis in the first place. The White House illegally sold Iran hundreds of powerful TOW anti-tank and HAWK anti-aircraft weapons [which Reagan came on television and told us were shoulder-launched weapons!], for use against Washington's newfound ally, the Iraqis, who were being assured that the US was trying hard to "prevent an Iranian victory . . ."




These weapons sales contravened US law, under which Iran was tagged as a terrorist nation. (Even today I can get into trouble for so much as editing a paper by an Iranian scholar for publication in a US scholarly journal, but it was all right for the Republicans and Neocons to send Khomeini 1000 TOWs!) Not only that, but Reagan's team then turned around and used the money garnered from these off-the-books sales to support the contra death squads in Nicaragua. In the US Constitution, how to spend government money is the purview of Congress, and Congress had told Reagan "no" on funding the death squads. So Reagan's people essentially stole weapons from the Pentagon storehouses, shipped them to Israel for transfer to Ayatollah Khomeini, and then took the ill gotten gains from fencing the stolen goods and gave them to nun-murderers in Latin America.



Here's the timeline:



"1985

July -- An Israeli official suggests a deal with Iran to then-national security adviser Robert McFarlane, saying the transfer of arms could lead to release of Americans being held hostage in Lebanon. McFarlane brings the message to President Reagan.

Aug. 30 -- The first planeload of U.S.-made weapons is sent from Israel to Tehran. Two weeks later the first American Hostage is released.

Dec. 5 -- Reagan secretly signs a presidential 'finding,' or authorization, describing the operation with Iran as an arms-for-hostages deal.




1986

Jan. 17 -- Reagan signs a finding authorizing CIA participation in the sales and ordering the process kept secret from Congress.

April -- Then-White House aide Oliver North writes a memo outlining plans to use $12 million in profits from Iran arms sales for Contra aid. "



Oh, yeah, that Reagan was tough on Khomeini. Why, he even sent him a Bible and a cake, to go along with those nice TOW's he gave him. That will teach those terrorists to mess with the Republican Party!
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Muqtada al-Sadr Regroups Sadrists Condemn al-Hakim's Visit to Washington Mortars hit Prison

Sam Dagher of the Christian Science Monitor is a good reason to subscribe to CSM. He reports on the way Muqtada al-Sadr is using his 'freeze' on Mahdi Army activities to organize cadres and turn his organization into something like Hizbullah in Lebanon. Dagher also provides the most connected and detailed count I have seen of the struggles in Karbala between the Mahdi Army and the Badr Corps paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI). The big question in my mind is whether a big organized Mahdi Army helps sweep Muqtada to power in the next provincial elections and in the 2009 elections for the federal parliament. By then the US military may be much weaker in the country, and the Sadrists may be in a position to push them out altogether.

McClatchy's Jamie Gumbrecht also reports on the Sadrists, raising the question of whether Muqtada can retain control of his Mahdi Army if he continues to force them to avoid violence and mafia-type activities:

' "There is an entity in the Sadr trend that doesn't want the freeze," said Sheik Naza al Timini, a Sadr cleric in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, south of Baghdad. "They said, 'We have the right to use violence and force.' We always hope for good, and we hope that the decision of Sayed Muqtada will be for the best of Iraq, but after he gives his final decision about the future of the Mahdi Army, many, I believe, will change their ideology and choose to leave the Sadr trend."

"What he did was basically pull the rug out — 'You can continue acting as the mafia, as the mob, but not in my name,' " said Peter Harling, a Sadr expert at the International Crisis Group. "It worked remarkably well, but I don't know how sustainable this can be. (His followers) appear extremely frustrated, willing to comply with Muqtada's decision, but not for very long." '

The USG Open Source Center translated excerpts from last Friday's sermons relevant to these issues. It points out that the Sadrists have been speaking out against the US presence in Iraq lately. And they were scathing on the visit to Washington recently of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI, or as OSC does it IISC). ISCI is a Shiite fundamentalist rival to the Sadrists that is at once more linked to the US and closer to Iran, representing the Iraqi Shiite middle and upper middle classes, while the Sadrists are mostly working class and lumpenproletariat. The sermons:

' Within its 1900 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Sharqiyah Television in Arabic - independent, private news and entertainment channel focusing on Iraq, run by Sa'd al-Bazzaz, publisher of the Arabic language daily Al-Zaman - is observed to carry the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Salah al-Ubaydi, spokesman for the Al-Sadr Trend termed the visit to Washington by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC), as submission to what he called tyranny and confiscation of the history of the religious authority. Addressing worshippers during a Friday sermon at the Al-Kufah Mosque, south of Baghdad, Al-Ubaydi said that Al-Hakim's visit to Washington is a confiscation of the religious seminary's positions against the occupation. He stressed that it is not becoming of Abd-al-Aziz to do this, taking into consideration that he is the son of the deep-rooted religious family."

Al-Ubaydi says: "Going there (Washington) on any pretext and regardless of the objectives does not refute at all the manifestation of submission to tyranny and injustice. Therefore, we say that it is not becoming of a person like Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim to do so." '

The ISCI preachers shot back:

' The [al-Sharqiya television] report adds: "For his part, Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji, leader in the IISC, urged the leaders of the Al-Sadr Trend to purge this trend of what he termed the elements that have penetrated its ranks. In a Friday sermon in Al-Najaf, Al-Qabbanji said that hundreds of elements from the Ba'thists and other sides have penetrated the trend with the aim of disrupting security and stability in Iraq."

Al-Qabbanji says: "The leaders of the Al-Sadr Trend are required to purge this trend of the elements that have penetrated it, of the Ba'thists and non-Ba'thists. This is what the have announced and we stress this. They said that they will purge this trend of hundreds of elements that have penetrated it. These are their official statements, of course. We stress the need to purge this body of the elements that have penetrated it. These are unacceptable elements."

The report says: "Hamid Mu'allah (al-Sa'idi), leader in the IISC, said that the pardon the Iraqi Government plans to issue soon will not be a general amnesty, but will include a large number of whose security files have not been completed yet. In a Friday sermon at the Buratha Mosque, Al-Sa'idi said that releasing the prisoners now will significantly contribute to improving the security situation." '

Another station, ISCI's own al-Furat, gives more details on the sermons of the Supreme Council figures. ISCI preachers are trying to take the edge off the extension of the UN mandate for US troops in Iraq for another year, engineered by PM Nuri al-Maliki's government without a vote of parliament. They are saying that this is the mandate's last year, and that they recognize the desire of Iraqis that US troops depart. The report:

' Within its 1700 GMT newscast, Baghdad Al-Furat Television Channel in Arabic - television channel affiliated with the Iraqi Islamic Supreme Council (IISC) led by Abd-al-Aziz al-Hakim, carries the following report on today's Friday sermons:

"Friday preachers praised His Eminence Al-Sayyid al-Hakim's visit to the United States due to the desirable results this visit has achieved. In another development, the Friday preachers called for fighting the harmful elements that have penetrated the awakening groups in order to consolidate security in the country."

The station then carries a report on Al-Haydari's Friday sermon as included in the above report by Al-Sharqiyah.

On Al-Hakim's visit to Washington, Shaykh Hamid Mu'allah al-Sa'idi says: "This visit takes place to an important place and at an extremely important time. As political observers say, this visit is an important political turning point for Iraq." He adds that this visit is also important due to the "personality of the visitor." He says: "It is not a secret that the family of Al-Hakim, who descends from the Al-Hakim family and Imam Muhsin al-Hakim has a great ideological, revolutionary, and religious asset."

The channel carries an episode of its weekly "Friday Sermons" program at 1810 GMT, as follows:

Shaykh Al-Haydari says: "We have heard that the Iraqi Government has sent a letter to the UN Security Council in which it extended the mandate of the US forces for one more year. In this letter, the government said that this is the last year for this extension. This also applies to the United Nations. This means that the UN resolutions now are binding to Iraq, but it can reject them after this year. There are three points in this issue. The first point is that the Iraqi people in general do not accept the presence of foreign military bases. They reject this because this will have repercussions and problems, particularly after the new developments. America has huge fleets and aircraft carriers. These are its bases and so it does not need bases (in Iraq). The Iraqi people do not accept the occupation and they reject the bases. The Iraqis hope that there will be no foreign soldier in Iraq. The second point is that Iraq needs to come out of its status under Chapter Seven of the UN Charter."

He adds: "In other words, ending Iraq's status under Chapter Seven means that Iraq is fully independent. It will then take its own security and military decisions. This is a major and essential issue. This is why the government is proceeding in this direction."

The station then repeats Shaykh Al-Sa'idi's remarks on Al-Hakim's visit to the United States.

Shaykh Sadr-al-Din al-Qabbanji says: "Over the past days, we have witnessed a positive development in the Arab position toward Iraq. An example of this is the statement of Prince Nayif Bin-Abd-al-Aziz, interior minister in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, on punishing the preachers who incite youths to go to Iraq. This is a new open statement. This is what we used to call for; namely, to isolate the kingdom's policy from the sectarian extremism in the kingdom. The sectarian extremism is represented in Wahhabism, which is a takfiri (holding other Muslims to be infidel) sectarian extremism. The Saudi politicians have another business, which are their national interests. There must be a separation between the kingdom's policy and the existing sectarian extremism." '

As for political violence on Monday, Reuters reports major attacks:

' BAGHDAD - Seven inmates were killed and 21 wounded when several mortar rounds struck an Interior Ministry jail in central Baghdad, an Iraqi security official said. The U.S. military said the attack was caused by rockets and gave a death toll of five detainees.

BAGHDAD - Six bodies were found dumped across Baghdad on Monday, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - A roadside bomb wounded four police commandos and one civilian in eastern Baghdad's Baladiyat district, police said.

BAGHDAD - Five people were wounded by a roadside bomb in western Baghdad's Mansour district, police said. Three policemen were among the wounded, another police source said.

BAGHDAD - Gunmen killed two civilians in their car in central Baghdad's Karrada district, police said. . .

TUZ KHURMATO - A roadside bomb detonated at a police patrol killing four policemen including a colonel and wounding seven others in Tuz Khurmato, 70 km south of Kirkuk, police said.

BAIJI - A suicide car bomber killed one Iraqi soldier and wounded two others in an attack on a checkpoint in the city of Baiji, 180 km (110 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

BUHRIZ - One policeman and a civilian were killed in clashes between police and gunmen in Buhriz, 60 km (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad, police said. A child, a woman and two policemen were among five people wounded and 10 cars were destroyed. . . '

Laith Hammoudi of McClatchy adds:

' Baghdad

Around 6,00 am, gunmen launched Katyosha rocket targeting Doura refinery south Baghdad sparking a big fire. A big smoke cloud covered the area. A source in the ministry of oil who talked on condition of anonymity said that the fire fighters team would control the fire and put it off in the few coming hours confirming that the fire doesn’t have any effect on the daily fuel supply to the fuel stations, police said. The National Media Center issued a press release saying that the refinery was targeted with 4 mortar shells while the Public Affairs Office in the Multi National Corp- Iraq said in its press release that the fire started at 9,00 am because of pipe explosion without giving any further details about the reason of the explosion of the pipe.

Around 6,00 am, a Katyosha rocket fell in Al Sharikat intersection in Karrada neighborhood downtown Baghdad. No casualties reported. . .

2 national police members were injured in an IED explosion that targeted their patrol in Qahtan square in Yarmouk neighborhood west Baghdad around 5,30 pm.

Police found 6 anonymous bodies in Baghdad today in the following g neighborhoods (2 bodies in Doura, 1 body in Amil, 1 body in Sadr city, 1 body in Boob Al Sham and 1 body in New Baghdad.

Salahuddin

An Iraqi army soldier was wounded in a suicide car bomb that targeted a check point of the Iraqi army north Biji north of Tikrit city around 9,30 am.

Kirkuk

A civilian was injured seriously when gunmen attacked him while he was inside his car on the street of Kirkuk _Berdi north of Kirkuk city today afternoon.

Basra

Police found an anonymous body of a woman on Hamdan street south of Basra city. Police said that the woman was shot in different areas of her body. '

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Police Chief of Hilla Killed; And, 40 Women Killed in Basra

Guerrillas deployed a roadside bomb to kill the police chief of Hilla, a largely Shiite city south of Baghdad.

AP reports that "Religious vigilantes have killed at least 40 women this year in the southern Iraqi city of Basra because of how they dressed, their mutilated bodies found with notes warning against "violating Islamic teachings . . ."

One of the problems with how the US press tends to cover Iraq is that they often leave out the Shiite south because there are few US troops down there, apparently assuming that it is relatively stable. Not.

Ned Parker of the LA Times writes that Iraq has not been so much pacified as Balkanized. He observes,

'
In the south, Shiite militias are at war for the lucrative oil resources in the Basra region. To the west, in Anbar province, Sunni tribes that once fought U.S. forces now help police the streets and control the highways to Jordan and Syria. In the north, Arabs, Kurds and Turkmens are locked in a battle for the regions around Kirkuk and Mosul. In Baghdad, blast walls partition neighborhoods policed by Sunni paramilitary groups and Shiite militias. '

Iraq is increasingly a failed state, ruled locally by ethnic or sectarian militias . ..

AFP reports on the bitterness of the Iraq Baath over having been fired from their jobs and on how, ironically, they view a proposed new law that would reinstate them as a 'death sentence."

The NYT says that ordinary Kurds are caught in the middle of the struggle for the oil province of Kirkuk, which the Kurds in Irbil are eager to annex to the 'Kurdistan Regional Authority.'

Syria is sinking in a sea of Iraqi refugees. Neither Syria nor the Iraqis have the resources to deal with this problem. The US Congress has a responsibility to help.

Reuters reports civil war violence in Iraq on Sunday. Excerpts:

' HILLA - A roadside bomb killed the police chief of Iraq's Babel province and five of his guards on Sunday, police said.

BAIJI - A suicide car bomb targeted an Iraqi army checkpoint, killing two soldiers and wounding seven others in western Baiji, 180 km (112 miles) north of Baghdad, the Iraqi army said.

BAGHDAD - Iraqi soldiers killed nine gunmen and detained 49 others during military operations across Iraq, the Defense Ministry said on Saturday.

BAGHDAD - Three bodies were found in different areas of Baghdad on Saturday, police said. . .'

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Oprah and Obama: Irony of the Week

The irony of the week is that Oprah Winfrey has come out strongly for Barack Obama as president. Why is that ironic? Because the subtext of Oprah's television show is that men are unreliable and women have to stick together.

So she supports a man for president in preference to another woman.

I like Obama very much, it is no reflection on him. But I think Oprah has some splainin' to do.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Napoleon's Scientists and the Pyramids

At the NYT, Katherine Bouton reviews Nina Burleigh's new book, “Mirage: Napoleon’s Scientists and the Unveiling of Egypt," which I'm eager to see. In the course of the review, she writes of the French invasion of Egypt in 1798:

' Some historians see this venture as an exploratory expedition gone wrong. Others, including the historian Juan Cole in his recent book “Napoleon’s Egypt: Invading the Middle East,” call it a brutal invasion. In an article in The Nation in August, Cole drew a parallel with our current situation in Iraq. '

I'm told there will be an NYT review of my book sometime in January.

For anyone who missed it, my question and answer session with readers at Firedoglake last Sunday is here.

Watch for FDL's weekly book salon on Sunday afternoons at 5 pm.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Guerrilla War 3.0 in Iraq; Attacks in Bayji, Yusufiya, Elsewhere, Kill 32, Wound Dozens; Dulaimi's Sunnis Unlikely to Rejoin Government

Guerrillas differ from conventional armies in that they typically avoid direct, conventional engagements on the battlefield. They melt away before a conventional army's advance, and then reemerge to engage in sniping, sneak attacks, and bombings from an unexpected quarter. The advantage of Fred Kagan's troop escalation or "surge" is that it allowed a tamping down of violence in Baghdad through a US campaign to disarm the Sunni Arabs there. There were two disadvantages of it. First, it allowed the Shiite militias to take advantage of the disarming of many Sunni Arabs, and to ethnically cleanse hundreds of thousands of Sunnis from the capital during the past six months. As a result, Baghdad is virtually a Shiite city now, like Isfahan or Shiraz. Second, the Sunni guerrillas melted away in West Baghdad, either laying low or relocating to other provinces, so that the violence was displaced to the provinces. Very likely when the extra US troops are removed, the guerrillas will reemerge in the capital, though their loss of so many Sunni neighborhoods to the ethnic cleansing may put them at a disadvantage now.

The Sunni Arab guerrilla movement has clearly regrouped outside Baghdad and is deploying high explosives with deveastating effect in Diyala, Salahuddin, Ninevah and Kirkuk provinces, to the northeast and due north of Baghdad. Cells also remain active in the northern reaches of Babil province just south of Baghdad, where Saddam had planted Sunni families in what had been a Shiite area, sowing the seeds of conflict when the Shiites returned to reclaim their property from 2003.

There were two big bombings in Diyala on Friday and a major attack in Mosul, a city nearly the size of Houston several hundred miles north of the capital On Saturday, the guerrillas deployed two big car bombs in Bayji, an oil refining center just northwest of Saddam's home town of Tikrit north of Baghdad. One car exploded with massive force outside the house of Ali al-Juburi, the counter-terrorism chief in the local police force, killing 11 individuals (7 of them policemen) and wounding 44 other persons. Another bomb targeting a police station killed 6 and wounded 15, and damaged surrounding buildings.

South of Baghdad in Babil Province, the US military forestalled a planned attack on American soldiers by a guerrilla cell at Yusufiya. They engaged well-armed cell members and the fighting grew so deadly that the US troops had to call in air strikes on their foe. They killed 10 guerrillas from the air and found a weapons cache. A mortar attack in nearby Mahmudiya killed one child and wounded two others. In addition, in Baghdad itself guerrillas used a roadside bomb to wound two police commandoes (these are usually recruited from the Shiite Badr Corps, the Iran-trained paramilitary of the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq (ISCI).

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that Adnan Dulaimi, the head of the Sunni fundamentalist Iraqi Accord Front, has been released from any confinement and is back in his house. But he expressed doubt that his bloc will rejoin the Shiite government of Nuri al-Maliki. He said Iraqi President Jalal Talabani had sent over some Peshmerga (Kurdish) bodyguards to protect Dulaimi. A car bomb was found near his house Thursday a week ago and one of his personal bodyguards had the key. Dulaimi claims that he the target of a Salafi Jihadi assassination plot, with the extremists having infiltrated his staff. (Whether that is true or not, it has happened to other Sunni politicians cooperating with the new government). Al-Hayat says that its sources in ISCI maintain that they are still negotiating with the Iraqi Islamic Party, a constituent of the Iraqi Accord Front, in hopes it will rejoin the al-Maliki government.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the Mosul city council has decided to dig a ditch around the northern city of 1.5 million to keep radical Sunni extremists out. The council has seen an uptick of relocation of militants to the city from Baghdad. Cities haven't had moats since the medieval period. Such modern advancement, the Bush administration has brought to Iraq.

Leila Fadel's blog from Baghdad is revealing on the fears of a teenager that his mother may end up killed for working for a Western news service. He wishes he had more typical teenage problems, but his are that he cannot bring home friends since they would find out about his mother's employment.

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

US Deploys Pakistani Insurgents against Al-Qaeda

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from an opposition Afghanistan newspaper alleging that Washington it deploying Pakistani tribal levies against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

'USA trying to use Pakistani insurgents against Al-Qa'idah - Afghan paper
Cheragh (Light)
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Document Type: OSC Translated Excerpt

USA trying to use Pakistani insurgents against Al-Qa'idah - Afghan paper

Excerpt from article, "Waziristan, a base for movement of Taleban, Al-Qa'idah", by independent Afghan newspaper Cheragh on 6 December

As insurgents in the Pakistani tribal areas increase their attacks on the Pakistani government, there have been various discussions about the relations between the White House and the extremist groups. In line with this, a number of experts believe that the White House has been secretly provoking these groups to fight Al-Qa'idah. This comes at a time when there have been close relations between Al-Qa'idah and the insurgents in the tribal areas for some time... (ellipses as published)

Waziristan has become a base for the movements of the extremists. Actually, who are these extremists? How are they explained? What are the agreements and disagreements between the extremists and Al-Qa'idah and the Taleban? A more important issue are the relations between the extremist groups and the United States of America.
When the White House attacked Afghanistan in 2001 and occupied this country, it dispersed the Taleban and Al-Qa'idah in the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. In the second phase, it maintained direct contacts with the senior leaders of this group. Therefore, America has been using Al-Qa'idah as a tool since the symbolic and self-made event on 11 September 2001.

In line with a revealed document, US forces were about to discover the hideout of Usamah Bin-Ladin in 2005, Donald Rumsfeld, the former US secretary of defence, stopped them (US forces) from arresting him.

Everyone knows that Bin-Ladin, Ayman Al-Zawahiri and other Al-Qa'idah leaders manage to continue their ominous lives thanks to direct support from a number of governments. However, there is an issue which should not be forgotten. The strengthening of the Al-Qa'idah which is not part of the US-backed Al-Qa'idah, has caused panic and dissatisfied the new US conservatives. They have expressed their concerns in different ways, in particular at a time when the Taleban have been capturing important parts of Afghanistan and the NATO occupiers have failed to eliminate them. Actually, how can America untie the knot which it tied itself? The Taleban, Al-Qa'idah and the insurgents in the Pakistani tribal areas have more things in common than things that separate them.

A US newspaper has recently revealed a secret US army document, according to which America has been cooperating fully with the leaders of the tribal insurgents in Pakistan under the pretext of fighting Al-Qa'idah.

According to what the New York Times has claimed, America has relations with insurgent groups located in the tribal areas in order to make them fight the Taleban and Al-Qa'idah as part of its measures to improve security in Pakistan.
According to the officials of the Pentagon or the US Secretary of Defence, this cooperation has not been just in the financial field, America is also giving military training to the Pakistani tribes. In view of this, we will face a kind of double-standards in the policies of America in Pakistan. However, America does not have a military presence in Pakistan, but with the revelation of this document, it was specified that a number of US militarists are present in that country to train the Pakistani tribes.

This secret document was revealed at a time when, according to US officials, the Pakistani tribal areas had become a safe haven for Al-Qa'idah and the Taleban, and Al-Qa'idah has been organizing its troops in these regions to carry out terrorist activities in different countries. On the other hand, the Pakistani tribal areas cooperate with the Taleban and Al-Qa'idah. In view of this, what does the financial and military assistance of the USA to the Pakistani tribal areas mean?

This issue becomes more important if we consider the growing tension between the Musharraf administration and the Pakistani tribal areas. The Pakistani security forces have always clashed with these tribes, and the military activities of the Pakistani tribes have been counted as one of the current challenges facing security in Pakistan.

It is necessary to mention two important points regarding the New York Times report:

1. In view of the direct relations between the Taleban, Al-Qa'idah and the insurgents of the Pakistani tribal areas, the financial assistance of America to the tribal groups aimed at suppressing the Taleban is useless. As it was mentioned, we cannot design a specific boundary for the extremist groups within the Indian subcontinent. This process has developed following the collapse of the Taleban. America might be assisting the tribal areas for one reason, and this is the use of its assistance by the Taleban and Al-Qa'idah. The use of Al-Qa'idah and its allies in Iraq as a tool by America shows the huge possibility behind this.

America has been trying to eliminate Al-Qa'idah, which is not supported by Washington. Therefore, it is ready to support the forces within the strongholds of Al-Qa'idah, the Taleban and the Pakistani tribal areas against the extremist groups, which are not acting based on US demands.

2. There is a direct link between the activities of the Taleban in Afghanistan and the movement of insurgents from the Pakistani tribal areas. In line with this, movements in the tribal areas increase to the extent that Taleban activities in Afghanistan increase.

(Passage omitted: Senlis Council's office in Afghanistan was closed because it wanted to legalize poppy cultivation; it claimed in recent report that Taleban fighters are present in more than 50 per cent of Afghanistan)

The USA is only thinking about expanding its own power. Following 9/11, George W Bush has tried to explain the relations between Al-Qa'idah and Washington. Meanwhile, the Islamabad government has become confused, because of the secret relations between the Taleban and Washington.

(Description of Source: Kabul Cheragh (Light) in Dari -- Eight-page independent daily, publishes political, social and cultural articles; critical of the transitional government)

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Bombings in Diyala Kill over Two Dozen

Bombings were back on the front page in Iraq on Saturday, with significant attacks carried out on Thursday evening and Friday.

At Muqdadiya in Diyala province, a female suicide bomber blew up a meeting of the local 'Awakening Council' or tribal levies willing to ally with the Americans against the radical Islamic State of Iraq. She killed at least 16 and wounded 27. Leila Fadel at McClatchy says she was aggrieved mother whose son fought on behalf of the Islamic State of Iraq and who had been killed by tribesmen of the Awakening Council (actually this council appears to have been members of the 1920 Revolution Brigade, a Sunni Muslim guerrilla group that has targeted US troops).

At al-Mansuriya, also in Diyala, a bit later on Friday, a car bomber drove into a military checkpoint, killing 10 persons and wounding 8. Among the wounded were soldiers and members of a local Awakening Group.

On Thursday evening guerrillas in Mosul had killed an Awakening leader, Jabir Jarba, and five of his subordinates with gunfire.

Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, a fundamentalist Shiite, dislikes the Sunni Awakening Councils, which have for the most part not shown themelves willing to ally with the new government. This according to Leila Fadel at McClatchy. She says the PM is actively putting roadblocks before the power and influence of the tribal levies in some areas of west Baghdad.

Among the more important Sunni Arab guerrilla groups still fighting the US is the neo-Baathists around Izzat Ibrahim Duri. The NYT reports,

' Elsewhere, the Iraqi police near Mr. Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit said they raided a hide-out that belonged to Mr. Hussein’s former vice president, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, who has eluded capture for nearly five years. Documents retrieved during the raid indicated that Mr. Douri had been there recently, the police said. The documents detailed ties to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a predominantly Iraqi group that American intelligence says has foreign leadership. They also laid out Iraqi police targets and included the blueprints of Iraqi military bases, the police said. The authorities said they also found the attack plan for a Mosul jailbreak that occurred in May, when five prisoners accused of terrorism escaped and two guards were killed. Weapons, including mortars, were also found. Mr. Douri sits at the top of the Iraqi government’s most-wanted list, and is accused by Washington of heading and financing terrorist operations here.

Duri's organization is one reason it was wrong all along to blame most of the political violence in Iraq on the Salafi Jihadis (or what the Bush administration insists on calling 'al-Qaeda'). Ex-Baathi and Baathi nationalists make up a good deal of the guerrilla movement. They sometimes cooperate with the Salafi Jihadis, but they are a different kettle of fish.

Helena Cobban on developments in the Sadr Movement and its relationship to the US forces and to Sunni Arab neighboring states.

The State Department inspector general for Iraq has resigned. He was accused of blocking investigations of sweetheart contracts given to security and other firms.

McClatchy also has details on other political violence for Friday.

See Farideh Farhi's further essay on reading the US National Intelligence Estimate in Iran. Philip Cunningham at the same site contemplates contemporary China.

At the Napoleon's Egypt blog, a whole slew of fascinating new letters by officers on the ground there.

The most recent three essays, on Iran and proliferation at Tomdispatch.com. They were very influential for me.
For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Romney: Some Beliefs are More Equal than Others

Mitt Romney's speech in Texas on Thursday was supposed to be an attempt to fend off religious bigotry. Instead, it betrays some prejudices of its own (against secular people), and seems to provoke others to bigotted statements. It has been likened to the speech of John F. Kennedy on his Catholicism. But we knew John F. Kennedy, and Mitt Romney is no John F. Kennedy. Kennedy strongly affirmed the separation of religion and state. Romney wants to dragoon us into a soft theocracy (not as a Mormon but as a Republican allied to the Pat Robertsons of the world). Kennedy wanted to be accepted as an American by other Americans. Romney wants to be accepted as a conservative Christian by other conservative Christians.

This conundrum is the price the Republican Party is paying for pandering to the religious Right. Can a secular person even win the Republican nomination any more? If you make yourself captive of the Protestant Right, then you will discover that they believe Mormons are heretics. The Republican Party has established its own litmus test, and since it has been a dominant party in recent years, we've all been affected by it. Romney's plight in finding it hard to be accepted by that constituency mirrors the plight of secular and unchurched Americans, on whom the very people Romney is sucking up to want to impose their narrow and sectarian values.

The unsavory aspects of this entire discourse are apparent in the op-ed of Naomi Schaeffer Riley for the Wall Street Journal. While she depicts Mormons in a positive light, she displays the most gut-wrenching bigotry toward Muslims. She writes:

' A recent Pew poll shows that only 53% of Americans have a favorable opinion of Mormons. That's roughly the same percentage who feel that way toward Muslims. By contrast, more than three-quarters of Americans have a favorable opinion of Jews and Catholics. Whatever the validity of such judgments, one has to wonder: Why does a faith professed by the 9/11 hijackers rank alongside that of a peaceful, productive, highly educated religious group founded within our own borders?'

I just wanted literally to puke on my living room carpet when I read this bilge. Islam is not 'the faith professed by 9/11 hijackers.' Islam is the religion of probably 1.3 billion persons, a fifth of humankind, which will probably be a third of humankind by 2050. Islam existed for 1400 years before the 9/11 hijackers, and will exist for a very long time after them. Riley has engaged in the most visceral sort of smear, associating all Muslims with the tiny, extremist al-Qaeda cult.

We could play this game with any human group. Some Catholics were responsible for the Inquisition. Shall we blame Catholicism for that, or all Catholics? Of course not. Jewish Zionists expelled hundreds of thousands of innocent Palestinians from their homes in 1948. Is that Judaism's fault or that of Jews in general? Of course not.

She goes on to further stick her foot in her mouth by complaining that she heard conservative Christians call Mormonism 'the fourth Abrahamic religion' (alongside Judaism, Christianity and Islam) and complains that they compared a Muslim belief she considers 'wacky' to Mormon stories. It is all right for her to call folk Islamic motifs wacky, mind you. She's only interested in being fair to Mormons, not to Muslims. Mormons are good people, but some of their forebears were also involved in violence in the 19th century of a sort that other Americans viewed as terrorism.

Riley's remarks exemplify the problems with Romney's speech, which demands fairness for his group but not for, e.g., secularists.

Thus, he says:

"In John Adams' words: "We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. ... Our Constitution," he said, "was made for a moral and religious people." Freedom requires religion just as religion requires freedom."

What Romney omits is that many of the "religious people" among the founding fathers were Deists, who did not believe in revelation or miracles or divine intervention in human affairs. Thomas Jefferson used to sit in the White House in the evening with scissors and cut the miracle stories out of the Gospels so as to end up with a reasoned story about Jesus of Nazareth, befitting the Enlightenment.

Some Founding Fathers were Christians, some were not, at least not in any sense that would be recognized by today's Religious Right. Jefferson believe that most Americans would end up Unitarians.

As for the insistence that you need religion for political freedom, that is silly. Organized religion has many virtues, but pushing for political liberty is seldom among them. Religion is about controlling people. No religiously based state has ever provided genuine democratic governance. You want religion in politics, go to Iran.

Liberty can survive religion, especially a multiplicity of religions within the nation. Because that way there is not a central faith that imposes itself on everyone, as Catholicism used to in Ireland or Buddhism used to in Tibet. But organized religion would never ever have produced the First Amendment to the US constitution, and the 19th century popes considered it ridiculous that the state should treat false religions as equal to the True Faith.

Deists, freethinkers and Freemasons--the kind of people that Romney was complaining about-- produced the First Amendment. When Tom Jefferson tried out an earlier version of it in Virginia, some of the members of the Virginia assembly actually complained that freedom of religion would allow the practice of Islam in the US. Jefferson's response to that kind of bigotry was that other people believing in other religions did not pick his pocket or break his leg, so why should he care how they worshipped? And that's all Romney had to say. But he did not want to say that. Romney said the opposite. He implied that is is actively bad for a democracy if people are unbelievers or if there is a strict separation of religion and state.

We know the Founding Fathers and Romney is no founding father.

By Romney's definition of freedom, Sweden and France, where 50% and 40% of the population, respectively, does not believe in God, cannot have a proper democracy. But of course Swedish democracy is in many respects superior to that in the United States.

The text of Mitt Romney's sermon is here.

Romney says:

' But in recent years, the notion of the separation of church and state has been taken by some well beyond its original meaning. They seek to remove from the public domain any acknowledgment of God. Religion is seen as merely a private affair with no place in public life. It's as if they are intent on establishing a new religion in America—the religion of secularism. They are wrong. '

Look, the reason that Americans took religion out of the public sphere was because the religious kept fighting with each other in the most vicious way. We had violence between Catholics and Protestants in schools in the 19th century because religion was in the public schools, and therefore each branch of Christianity wanted to dominate and control it. You take religion out of the schools, suddenly people stop fighting about it.

People like Romney who want to put religion back into the public sphere are just going to cause a lot of trouble. 14% of Americans don't believe in God. Another 5% belong to minority religions (and both categories are rapidly growing). That nearly 20% doesn't necessarily want sectarian Christian symbols in public schools. Even a lot of the 80% that are some kind of Christian don't belong to a church and aren't necessarily orthodox in their views.

So Romney's so-called plea for tolerance is actually a plea for the privileging of religion in American public life. He just wants his religion to share in that privilege that he wants to install. Ironically, the very religious pluralism of the United States, which he appears to praise, will stand in the way of his project.
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Huckabee as Deer in the Headlights Trusts hearsay over NIE

Gov. Mike Huckabee did not know about the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran when asked about it on Wednesday. It had caused a furor in Washington because it concluded that Iran had halted any weapons-related experiments in 2003.

It is not such a big scandal that Huckabee hadn't heard the news. When you are traveling and out among people, often you don't, until you get back to the hotel that night. I can testify to that myself.

What is the scandal is that Huckabee had been briefed by someone to opposite conclusions from those of the NIE and had swallowed it hook line and sinker.

He told a reporter for Politico.com:

' I don’t know where the intelligence is coming from that says they have suspended the program or how credible that is versus the view that they actually are expanding it. … And I’ve heard, the last two weeks, supposed reports that they are accelerating it and it could be having a reactor in a much shorter period of time than originally been thought.
'

So here's what is troubling. Huckabee puts what he's "heard" above the findings of the 16 US intelligence agencies. And, he seems to be confused that the problem with Iran is that it is building nuclear reactors. Reactors can be used for peaceful energy generation. It is if they were building a bomb that anyone should be concerned. The reactors at Bushehr cannot easily be put to bomb making purposes.

So yes, he could get behind on the news. But he doesn't a) show good judgment in valuing right wing political gossip over an extensively vetted professional intelligence report (which is corroborated by the International Atomic Energy Agency). And b) he doesn't seem very well informed about the nuclear issue.

Not ready for prime time.
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3 US Troops Killed; 25 Slaughtered in Car Bomb Spree Iraq Refugees in Syria Face Hunger, Cold

Four major bombings around Iraq left at least 25 dead and dozens more wounded on Wednesday.

Al-Hayat says that a car bomber detonated his payload near the Abd al-Rasul Shiite religious center (Husayniya) in Karrada. It is expected that the count of 15 killed will rise, given the size of the explosion and how crowded the street was. In Kirkuk, a car bomber targeted the cavalcade of the provincial official in charge of security in Kirkuk, Kakman Kakarish, killing instead 3 civilians and wounding 7. In Baquba to the northeast of Baghdad, a car bomb killed 5 and wounded 13.

Sunni leader in parliament Adnan Dulaimi has been cleared of involvement in constructing and deploying car bombs. Many of his bodyguards, however, remain in US custody and are suspected of involvement in a terror cell.

About 1/3 or over 400,000 Iraqis taking refuge in Syria skip at least one meal a day, according to McClatchy. The threat of widespread hunger among the refugees has increased in seriousness as winter approaches and fuel prices remain high. Some refugees may have a choice of eating or keeping warm. There are about 1.4 million Iraqi refugees in Syria. The American press has made a big deal out of 25,000 or so of them returning in recent months (informal polling does not suggest they are returning, for the most part, because the security situation has improved.) Since some Iraqis still are streaming out of the country, moreover, and the returnees are a tiny number, it is difficult to see this small population movement as significant. The significant numbers are 2 million displaced abroad and 2 million displaced internally.

Obviously, the United States Congress should be contributing money to feed these displaced Iraqis. They are displaced because of our actions. Can't we get up a campaign for this purpose? Couldn't they slip it into the defense budget? It is not right that Iraqi children should be going hungry in Damascus and Aleppo because of our actions, and yet we should just go 'tut, tut,' and ignore it all. It is not right.

The intrepid Nancy Youssef explores the limits of Bush's troop escalation and dependence on tribal levels, finding that neither is having any effect in the largely Sunni city of Samarra north of Baghdad.

The US will finally give the Iraqi air force a small capability of striking targets from the air next year. The only way to understand why the capability will be given so late, and why so little of it will be given, is that the US intends to retain control for some time to come.

Attempts to restore south Iraq's marshlands are not going well. Upstream damming has made it difficult to get water levels up. The water is stagnant and there is not enough of it.

A radical Shiite group has taken a handful of Britons hostage and is threatening to kill them unless the British withdraw their troops.

Reuters reports political violence in Iraq for Wednesday. Significant incidents:

' BAGHDAD - A car bomb near a Shi'ite mosque in central Baghdad's Karrada district killed 15 people and wounded 33, police said.

BAGHDAD - Four bodies were found in different areas of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAGHDAD - Two policemen were wounded by a roadside bomb targeting their patrol in Baghdad's western Yarmouk district, police said. . .

SULAIMANIYA - Bombs destroyed a shop selling alcohol in the town of Sayyid Sadiq near the Iranian border southeast of Sulaimaniya, 330 km (205 miles) northeast of Baghdad, on Tuesday, police said.

KIRKUK - A parked car bomb killed two people in southern Kirkuk, 250 km (155 miles) north of Baghdad, police and hospital sources said. The bomb targeted the convoy of a police commander, Brigadier-General Kakamen Hameed, who was among 10 people wounded. One of his bodyguards was among the two killed.

MOSUL - A parked car bomb killed one civilian and wounded seven others, including a policeman, in central Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad, police said. . .

BAQUBA - A parked car bomb killed five people and wounded 13 on a road near a number of government offices in the city of Baquba, 65 km (40 miles) north of Baghdad, police said.

SALAHUDDIN PROVINCE - Two U.S. soldiers were killed and two others wounded when gunmen opened fire after a roadside bomb exploded in Salahuddin province on Tuesday, the U.S. military said. . .

ANBAR PROVINCE - One U.S. soldier was killed and two injured by an explosion in Anbar province in western Iraq on Monday, the U.S. military said. . .

For "cont'd" postings, click here.

Bush Grasp of Reality Tenuous

Farideh Farhi, at our group blog, Global Affairs, says she listened to Bush's press conference on Tuesday -- which was full of implausible statements -- and now wants to know what George W. Bush has been smoking. Uh, I don't think that substance is typically smoked so much as snorted. Or maybe his current favorite is just a stong bottle of beer.

The Los Angeles Times notes a controversy over what the president knew and when he knew it:

' Seven weeks ago, Bush said that in the interest of "avoiding World War III" Iran should be prevented from gaining the knowledge needed to make a nuclear weapon. That was roughly two months after J. Michael McConnell, the director of national intelligence, reported to Bush that he had "some new information" about Iran.

"He didn't tell me what the information was; he did tell me it was going to take awhile to analyze," the president said. He said he was not briefed on the report until last week, and that in the interim no one had suggested that he tone down his language.

Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, expressed incredulity that Bush, "who gets briefed every morning, who is fixated on Iran," had not sought details of the new assessment after learning of it in August.

"I can't believe that," he said in a phone call with reporters. '

Washington insiders say that Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell would certainly have been kept in the loop by the analysts producing this NIE. McConnell briefs Bush and said this summer he had new evidence coming in.

At his press conference Bush reverted to his old ploy of declaring people and things dangerous even when there is no objective measure of such things. He used to say that Saddam Hussein had been "dangerous" even when it was discovered that Saddam had no chemical, biological or nuclear research facilities. Now Iran is intrinsically dangerous, regardless of whether it has a weapons program or not. Does anyone still believe this sort of essentializing and fear-mongering?

Bush's circle is like a medieval court with scheming courtiers. His subordinates apparently routinely do things that he doesn't (and the other courtiers don't) know about until later. Take for instance when then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld ordered the Iraqi army dissolved, with Bush only discovering it afterwards.

My guess is that Admiral William J. Fallon, the CENTCOM commander now, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Michael Mullen, may well have cooperated with figures in the intelligence world to get this report written and some of it released, especially since Congress had mandated that it be completed and its findings conveyed to them by a date certain.

Gareth Porter reported that

'A source who met privately with Fallon around the time of his confirmation hearing and who insists on anonymity quoted Fallon as saying that an attack on Iran "will not happen on my watch". Asked how he could be sure, the source says, Fallon replied, "You know what choices I have. I'm a professional." Fallon said that he was not alone, according to the source, adding, "There are several of us trying to put the crazies back in the box." '

Mullen has worried that the way the US military is bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq will prevent Washington from replying decisively to any other foe or crisis.

Snow Bush with some occasional hints that the NIE has some new findings, sure that he won't bother to ask for details or read any actual document (he seldom does), then you could spring this thing on the Cheneyites and blindside them.

Cheney clearly was making a push for war on Iran this fall. The real puzzle is how the NIE got past his team of plumbers, which still informally includes convicted perjurer Scooter Libby. That's why I say there was moxie behind this NIE, of the sort an admiral has, or better two admirals.
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International Reaction to the NIE: OSC

The USG Open Source Center surveys Iranian, German, French, and Israeli reactions to the US National Intelligence Estimate that holds that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. One is struck by the Israeli reactions, on both sides of the aisle. Former Labor prime minister Ehud Barak dismissed the report.

'OSC Report: NIE on Iran Draws Mixed Reaction From Perm-5, Israel, Tehran
International -- OSC Report
Tuesday, December 4, 2007

International -- Iranian Officials Say NIE on Iran Vindicates Tehran; European, Israeli Officials Stress Need for Continued Efforts To Prevent a Nuclear Iran Iranian officials predictably claimed that the NIE on Iran proves that US claims that Tehran was developing nuclear weapons were "baseless," with a Government spokesman suggesting that Washington should pay for "disadvantages" its "lies" caused. Officials in the UK, France, Germany, and Israel stressed the need for a firm approach toward Iran, while official comment from Russia and China called on Iran to continue to cooperate with the IAEA.

Taking the same tack as yesterday's media commentary, Iranian officials on 4 December portrayed the estimate as validating Tehran's assertion that its nuclear program is peaceful.

In Iran's most authoritative comment to date, Government Spokesman Gholam Hoseyn Elham called the NIE a "US Government confession of its mistakes" and said the US should "pay for the disadvantages" it caused (ISNA).

Foreign Ministry spokesman Seyyed Mohammad Ali Hoseyni described past US claims as "baseless" and called on the Europeans to "adopt fair approaches, make just judgments, and choose logical solutions" (ISNA).

Official statements from the EU-3 called for maintaining international pressure on Iran, pointing to the positive effects of the sanctions to date.

The German Foreign Minister said that the report offered an "opportunity to give new dynamism to the nuclear talks with Iran," adding that "only a firm position by the international community can persuade Iran to follow path of confidence-building" (Foreign Ministry website, 4 December).

A French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman stressed that the international community "must maintain pressure on Iran." Paris believes that a new "constraining (UN) resolution" is necessary, she added (AFP, 4 December).

A spokesman for UK Prime Minister Brown said that Iran's nuclear program poses a "serious" security threat and that, "in overall terms," the government believes London was "right" to be "worried" about it. Another report quoted the spokesman as saying that "the sanctions program and international pressure has had some effect" (AFP, AP, 4 December).

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called for firm efforts against Iran, stressing the need to "pursue efforts" to prevent Iran from developing a weapons capability (Ha'aretz, 4 December). Defense Minister Ehud Baraq expressed skepticism about the NIE's judgments suggesting that Iran has "probably since revived" its weapons efforts, and noting that Israel "cannot allow ourselves to rest because of an intelligence report from the other side of the earth, even if it is from our greatest friend (IDF Radio, 4 December). PRC

Foreign Ministry officials' remarks following the release of the NIE suggested that China may be prepared to press Iran to maintain dialogue with the international community, but avoided explicitly mentioning sanctions.

A Foreign Ministry spokesman did not respond directly to a question on new sanctions during a 4 December news conference, saying only that China's stance on the "Iran nuclear issue" is "consistent," and that Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi had "reiterated" China's "principled stance" to Secretary Rice (Foreign Ministry website).
He added that China "hopes" Iran will "cooperate" with the IAEA, "clarify unresolved issues," and "create advantageous conditions" for "starting negotiations."

Kremlin ally and chair of Russia's Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, Margelov claimed that the NIE showed that Russia was "correct in its unbiased approach toward Iran's nuclear issue" (Agentstvo Natsionalnykh Novostey, 4 December). Although not commenting directly on the NIE's release, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his meeting with the Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Sa'id Jalili in Moscow, expressed the "hope" that all of Iran's nuclear programs will be "open and transparent and will be carried out with monitoring "by the IAEA (Prime-TASS, 4 December). '
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Cole in Salon: Why Bush's Troop Surge Won't Save Iraq

My Salon column,
"Why Bush's troop surge won't save Iraq," is now online. Excerpt:

'the only truly good news to come from Iraq would be good news regarding the political landscape. And there, Iraq is still beset with problems. In recent days, parts of northern Iraq have been invaded by Turkey, an ally of the United States. In Baghdad, Sunni members of parliament staged a walkout to defend their leader, whose bodyguards were implicated in fashioning car bombs. Proposed legislation reducing sanctions against Sunni Arabs who once belonged to the Baath Party nearly produced a riot in parliament. Meanwhile, Britain and Australia, among Bush's few remaining allies with combat troops in Iraq, are planning to depart in 2008, raising questions about security in the key southern port city of Basra, the major route for the country's lucrative oil exports.

What the recent publicity about the "success" of the troop surge has ignored is this: The Bush administration has downplayed the collapsing political situation in Iraq by directing the public's attention to fluctuating numbers of civilians killed. While there have been some relative gains in security recently, even there the picture remains dubious. The Iraqi ministry of health, long known for cooking the books, says that a few hundred Iraqis were killed in political violence in November. However, independent observers such as Iraq Body Count cite a much higher number -- some 1,100 civilians killed in Iraq in November. They reported that bombings and assassinations accounted for 63 persons on Saturday, the first day of December, alone. . .

The current "good news" campaign from the Bush administration regarding the troop surge is only the latest in a long history of whitewashing the war since the 2003 invasion. First, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld denied that there was massive looting following the fall of Baghdad. Then he denied that there was a rising guerrilla war. . . '

Read the whole thing.
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Did an Iranian Spy Clear Tehran of Nuclear Ambitions?

The new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran says that Iran did have a nuclear weapons research program until early 2003, but then dismantled it. See Farideh Farhi's excellent discussion of this development at our joint Global Affairs weblog.

There is now a high level of confidence that Iran is no longer seeking nuclear weapons.

This finding reverses numerous statements of George W. Bush to the effect that Iran is frantically trying to get a nuke.

So what convinced the US intelligence community that Iran's weapons program was long ago dismantled?

A prominent Iran specialist is suggesting on a private email list that very likely, it is explained by one name: Ali Reza Asghari.

Asghari had been head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon in the 1980s. He is someone who knows where all the bodies are buried with regard to Iranian covert operations, from involvement in the 1983 attack on the Marines in Beirut, to the training of the Badr Corps (now back in Iraq) and any Iran links to the Mahdi Army. Likewise he was allegedly privy to information on Iran's nuclear research. He rose to be deputy minister of defense. It is alleged that around 2003 he was recruited by a foreign intelligence agency (very likely that of Turkey) as a spy. The Iranian authorities may have gotten wise to him in late 2006, forcing him abruptly to flee to Istanbul in early 2007.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat said around the same time:

"According to anonymous officials who spoke to the Turkish newspaper, ‘Millet’, the Turkish intelligence and police had discovered that Asghari was opposed to the Iranian government and that he holds information regarding its nuclear plan."

Some press accounts say that Asghari was able to bring actual documents out with him about Iran's nuclear program.

So if the Iranians were doing some weapons experiments in 2002 (which itself is not proved), why did they stop?

1. The anti-government Mojahedin-e Khalq terrorist organization, which Saddam Hussein had given a base in Iraq, was able to discover the nuclear research facility at Natanz and to pass information about it not only to Saddam but also to the US. Anything weapons-related was then obviously open to being bombed, and the government may have decided that keeping such experiments covert was too difficult and the possibility of its enemies bombing them too likely, to continue.

2. Having seen what international economic sanctions did to Iraq, reducing it to a fourth world country, the Iranians were afraid of sanctions once Natanz became known. (Gareth Porter suggests that the decision to negotiate with the Europeans was the turning point.)

3. As the US rushed to war against Saddam, Iran's rulers saw an opportunity for a grand alliance with Washington, and they knew that one quid pro quo would be giving up any ambitions to become a nuclear state.

Thus, the Iranian government's decision to drop the experiments at Natanz were probably prompted by a combination of discouragement about the likelihood they could be kept secret and an ambition to do what Libya later did and reposition itself in a less adversarial posture toward Washington.

The Iranians must have been astonished when Dick Cheney shot down their overtures.

Some speculate that Asghari also had information about a secret Syrian missile site, leading to the Israeli strike on it in September.

If the decisive evidence for the lack of any nuclear weapons program in Iran was the documents Asghari spirited out when he defected last winter, then the US intelligence community has had this information for at least 6 months.

So why has the Bush administration continued to rattle sabers at Iran all this time.

Why was Cheney conspiring with Neoconservatives on his staff to convince Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to attack the Natanz facilities, in hopes Iran would over-react and give Bush and Cheney a pretext for doing regime change in Tehran?

Why did the Bushies keep leaking to prominent journalist Seymour Hersh the story that Cheney was planning an attack on Iran?

Why did Bush go so far as to say that World War III could only be prevented if Iran was denied the knowledge of how to enrich uranium?

Cheney and Bush have probably known since at least April that Iran has no weapons program.

I can only speculate, of course. But I believe that Bush and Cheney want regime change in Tehran. Being oil men, they are very well aware that petroleum switched over in the late 1990s to being a seller's market. There was a danger of China doing proprietary deals with Iran (and Iraq and others) that would ultimately deny the US access to the Gulf oil and gas bonanza.

If Iran learns how to close the fuel cycle, it could always make a bomb fairly quickly if it thought that the US was planning an invasion. (If you use centrifuges to enrich to 5% for fuel, you could theoretically keep feeding the uranium back through them to enrich to 80% for a bomb).

In short, regime change by force becomes impossible if Iran has the knowledge of how to make a bomb. And if you can't do regime change by force, you might well not be able to forestall a new Iran-China economic and military axis, in which the US increasingly risks being cut out of the petroleum not only in Iran but in the Oil Gulf more generally.

So from a hawkish Cheney point of view, it is irrelevant whether Iran has a weapons program. It cannot be allowed to develop enrichment capabilities even for civilian purposes.

If China found a way to monopolize Gulf petroleum, the US could be reduced to a third rate power during the next century. That's why Bushco invaded Iraq, and it is why they keep the pressure on Iran. They want to ability to maneuver and to use conventional force if necessary to secure US energy security.

So although the NIE makes it less likely that Cheney can get his way on attacking Iran in the next 12 months, as Fred Kaplan rightly argues, the new finding only postpones the crisis.

Ominously, whereas the Los Angeles Times leads this story with "Iran has no nuke program, U.S. intel says," the hawkish Washington Postleads with "Iran Is Judged 10 Years From Nuclear Bomb." The WaPo diction (for which poor Dafna Linzer is almost certainly not responsible) implies facts not in evidence. Iran cannot be 10 years away from a bomb if it has no weapons program. It would have to constitute a weapons program and then it would be X years from having a bomb. But the WaPo way of putting it is going to dominate the debate from here on in. Cheney may yet have his way, down the road, by inspiring younger hawks.
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Hadley: Iran has no Nuclear Weapons Program

Here is the transcript of Monday's news conference:

Press Briefing by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley

James S. Brady Press Briefing Room

3:35 P.M. EST

MR. HADLEY: Good afternoon, I'm Steve Hadley, the President's National Security Advisor. I want to talk a little bit about the recent National Intelligence Estimate that was released to the executive branch and to the Congress today. There was an earlier briefing this afternoon by the Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Don Kerr, and also by the Director of Central Intelligence, Mike Hayden. And I wanted to give a little bit more context and set the findings of the NIE in a broader historical perspective.

The introduction is going to go on a little bit; there's a lot to tell. This is a complicated estimate. The unclassified key judgments that were released today are a little difficult to sort through and I want to try and lay this out for everybody, so I'll have an opening statement, probably 15-20 minutes, but there will be lots of time to answer questions at the end.

The Director of National Intelligence has today released the unclassified key judgments from the intelligence community's latest estimate of Iran's nuclear weapons efforts and its uranium enrichment program. The classified version of this National Intelligence Estimate was briefed to the President last Wednesday, November 28, and has been delivered to relevant congressional committees this morning.

On balance, the estimate is good news. On one hand, it confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. On the other hand, it tells us that we have made some progress in trying to ensure that that does not happen. But it also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem.

The estimate offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically, without the use of force, as the administration has been trying to do. And it suggests we have the right strategy: intensified international pressure, along with a willingness to negotiate a solution that serves Iranian interests while ensuring the world that it will never have to face a nuclear-armed Iran. But the bottom line is that for that strategy to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran -- with diplomatic isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial pressure. And Iran has to decide that it wants to negotiate a solution.

This is a complicated subject and the new Intelligence Estimate is a complicated document. Let me summarize the key judgments and then try and walk you through it and answer your questions. First, let me summarize the key judgments. The IC has high confidence -- high confidence -- that Iran had a covert nuclear weapons program that it has never acknowledged and continues to deny. The intelligence community has high confidence that Iran halted its covert nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003. And they have moderate confidence that it had not restarted that program as of mid-2007.

They judge with high confidence that the halt in other nuclear-related decisions was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure, resulting from exposure of Iran's previously undeclared nuclear work involving uranium enrichment. The intelligence community says they do not know whether Iran currently intends to develop nuclear weapons, but they assess with moderate to high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. And the intelligence community assesses with moderate confidence that convincing the Iranian leadership to forgo the eventual development of nuclear weapons will be difficult.

Let me see if I can unpack this a bit and put it in context. First, remember how we got here. A little background: If a state is looking to become a nuclear-weaponed state, it needs three things. It needs weapons-grade nuclear material. It needs the technical know-how to fashion this nuclear material into a weapon. And it needs a means to deliver the weapon on a target, like a ballistic missile. The hardest step in today's world is acquiring weapons-grade nuclear material. Unless you steal it, there are two ways to get it: If you have a nuclear power reactor you can reprocess spent fuel coming out of that reactor, or you can create nuclear material by a process called uranium enrichment. This process produces fuel for nuclear power reactors, but it can also create weapons-grade nuclear material for a nuclear bomb.

In 1968, Iran signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and pledged never to seek to acquire nuclear weapons. That's what Iran undertook to do. It signed what is called a safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or the IAEA, under which it was to declare all its nuclear-related activities and open itself up to inspections by the IAEA.

In August 2002, an Iranian opposition group revealed the existence of a secret uranium enrichment plant in Iran at a place called Natans. The plant was secret. It had not been declared, as required, to the IAEA. Iran at that time had no operational nuclear power reactors, so why did it need a uranium enrichment plant? Iran was actively developing ballistic missiles. These facts raised a real concern that this was all part of an effort to develop nuclear weapons. So the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, backed by the international community, began a vigorous effort to convince Iran to suspend its enrichment activity, and thus reassure the world that it did not intend to develop nuclear weapons.

And the pressure seemed to work. In October 2003, Iran agreed to cooperate with the IAEA and suspend its uranium enrichment activities. Considerable further diplomacy involving both the IAEA and what's called the EU-3 -- representatives of Britain, France and Germany -- resulted in what's called the Paris Agreement of November 2004. In this agreement, Iran reaffirmed and extended the suspension of its enrichment activities. And the EU-3 agreed to negotiate long-term technology, economic and security arrangements for Iran.

Despite this progress, the intelligence community in May of 2005 assessed with high confidence that Iran currently was determined to develop nuclear weapons. The intelligence community maintained this assessment throughout this year, 2007. Indeed, Director of National Intelligence Negroponte told an open session of the House intelligence community on January 1, 2007, that, "our assessment is that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons." DNI McConnell later told a Senate panel in open session on February 27 that, "We assess that Tehran seeks to develop nuclear weapons."

The irony is that one month after the intelligence community released this assessment, in June of 2005, Ahmadinejad wins a runoff election and becomes Iran's President. On August 1, 2005, just two months after taking power, Ahmadinejad informs the IAEA that he has decided to resume uranium enrichment, and does so beginning in January 2006.

For the next two years, through a whole series of IAEA Board of Governors resolutions urging Iranian compliance, through two U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions, sweetened by negotiating offers by the EU-3 and the promise that the United States would join those negotiations, the international community tried unsuccessfully to get Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, and those efforts to get the suspension continue today.

Also during this period, the President directs the intelligence community to enhance its capabilities to gather intelligence on Iran's nuclear programs.

Earlier this year, Congress called for a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. It is in part delayed in order to process -- the finalization of that NIE is delayed in part in order to process new intelligence, some of which has been received in the last few months.

The National Intelligence Estimate released today reveals that there was a covert nuclear weapons program. It also reveals that, unknown to us, that program was halted in the fall of 2003. So the covert nuclear weapons program was unknown to us, suspected, unknown; now confirmed. But what was also unknown was that the program was halted in the fall of 2003. That secret -- that covert nuclear weapons program was halted at the same time the Iranians publicly announced that they were suspending their public and declared uranium enrichment program.

So where does that leave us? One, we have good reason to continue to be concerned about Iran developing a nuclear weapon, even after this most recent National Intelligence Estimate. In the words of the NIE, "Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to producing nuclear weapons if a decision is made to do so." For example, Iran's civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing. And as you know, once a country masters the technology to enrich uranium for use even in a civilian nuclear power program, it could readily use the same technology to produce weapons-grade uranium. As we have said, weapons-grade uranium is the long pole in the tent for a nuclear weapon.

And Iran continues to develop, test and deploy ballistic missiles -- a very attractive delivery system for a nuclear weapon. For example, the Iranian Defense Minister publicly acknowledged a medium-range ballistic missile called the Ashura, which could reach much of Eastern Europe.

Finally, we are very unsure of Iran's attentions [sic], even with respect to the covert nuclear weapons program that Iran has halted. Again, let me quote the National Intelligence Estimate: "We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidentially whether Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program indefinitely while it weighs its options, or whether it will or already has set specific deadlines or criteria that will prompt it to restart the program."

Again from the NIE: "We assess with moderate confidence that convincing the Iranian leadership to forgo the eventual deployment of nuclear weapons will be difficult given the linkage many within the leadership probably see between nuclear weapons development and Iran's key national security and foreign policy objectives."

But the NIE gives us reason to believe that our current strategy stands the best chance of convincing Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. Again, let me quote for a final time from the NIE: "Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003, primarily in response to international pressure, indicates Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach, rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of political, economic and military costs. This in turn suggests that some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways might, if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible, prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program. It is difficult to specify just what such a combination might be."

We have been pursuing this very strategy for over two years, since Iran resumed its nuclear enrichment. If we are to avoid the grim choice between accepting an Iran on the path to nuclear weapons or considering the use of force, we need to intensify our pressure on Iran, while making clear that if they do suspend enrichment, there is an opportunity for better relations with the international community.

And with that, I'll stop and I'd be pleased to answer your questions.

Q It is troubling that the United States was so wrong about what Iran was doing or what its intentions were?

MR. HADLEY: I don't think we were wrong about what it's doing or what its intentions were. Our concern was that they were pursuing a nuclear weapon. We saw the enrichment, which we couldn't really explain; we saw the ballistic missiles. And it led people to conclude: We are concerned that they were pursuing a nuclear weapons program and might have a covert program to actually weaponize highly-enriched uranium in order to be a nuclear weapon. And that's what the NIE has now discovered.

The President said some mo