Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion
Juan Cole is President of the Global Americana Institute
Ethnic cleansing of Georgians by Ossetians? Georgian plans to wipe out Ossetians? Aljazeera International reports on claims and counter-claims of war crimes.
posted by Juan Cole @ 8/16/2008 03:44:00 PM
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Winner, October 5, 2007, Scott Nearing Award for Courageous Scholarship (Awarded by the Graduate Students of the Political Science Department, University of Pennsylvania).
Winner, 2005 James Aronson Award for Social Justice Journalism, Hunter College.
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5 Comments:
The US reaction to the Georgian "crisis" is very interesting and revealing. It's kind of a small, slightly back burner issue that, like the border skirmish between Ecuador and Columbia, illuminates everything that is wrong with our foreign policy. It's like a litmus test. It is my opinion we fail the test.
First, there is the long, bloody history of Chechnya (on Georgia immediate border) under Russian occupation. The US was consistently critical of Russia operations in Chechnya until 9/11, when the Chechnyan rebels were suddenly branded Muslim terrorists. Kind of strange considering the entire population of Chechnya was only around a million people and the region is incredibly isolated. US than claimed to be fighting Chechnyan fighters all the way over in Afghanistan in 2002, which does not seem very likely. Then we arm Georgia against the very same Chechnyan rebels, who have now taken refuge in Georgia, and we send hundreds of Special Ops trainers to Georgia who specialize in covert actions and stuff that 'looks like terrorism' if you happen to be on the receiving end. We eventually encourage Georgia to go into Ossetia and do nasty things with all their new weapons and tactics, to such a degree that Russia is baited into involvement, which the blundering Kissinger-ite neocons amazingly did not predict, and unpopular Georgia is essentially left high and dry. For the neocons this was a mistake. Now they are trying to paint Russia into a corner via several political fronts and drain their military as in the cold war, but the truth is we might now be more drained and economically unstable than they are, and the gamble could backfire badly. Part of this strategy is to hype the "ethnic tension" and "Stalin's legacy" story to explain the Georgian conflict.
But what no one in the current administration is admitting and few western news sources report, is that the two longest and most important oil pipelines in the world are exactly in or around Georgia, with the west's (and BP's) line passing all the way through Georgia, which was chosen specifically for it's friendly political climate, and the planning of which started during the invasion of Afghanistan. The pipeline cost US$3.9 billion and competes directly with Russia's own nearby pipeline (the worlds longest), which they built long ago but we refuse to use. Instead we built an adjacent pipeline basically to put them out of business (the west has also been implicated in obstructing routes for Russian oil as well). In 2006 BP and friends completed another pipeline for natural gas which, as if to illustrate how much of the current tension may revolve around these pipelines, was actually briefly shut down during the recent Ossetia conflict. About 2% of the worlds fossil fuel is exported through Georgia, but let's say that's 4% of US and European oil, and the potential of the Caspian is far greater.
So this is probably less about Georgia and more about controlling access to the Caspian- one of the largest oil reserves in the world accessible by countries friendly to the west. Northern Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey are all nearby as well. It all converges here and our policy is so variable, and history so inconsistent, none of it makes any sense except in terms of pure greed. And you can bet this all drives up oil price, but we are all paying for this corporate/state maneuvering in more ominous ways than the price of gasoline.
This seems to indicate that blatant economic and strategic interests ("petropolitics") are driving our variable, seemingly formulated as needed, foreign policy, (which includes weapons, training and secret warfare), and we have a cynical disregard for ethics or fairness in our very powerful foreign policies (easily the most powerful in the world).
Read Jad Mouawad's article in the NY Times European edition.
It's difficult to imagine that Shaakashvili did not even consider the possibility that the Russians would respond and counter-invade Ossetia if Georgian forces occupied that territory. He must have asked the question of whomever was advising him and urging him to make the first move "What assurances of military support do I have if the Russians get involved?"
Someone with authority must have promised third party military assistance to Shaakashvili. Other than the Americans or possibly the israelis I can't think of any state that would go out on that limb. If his handlers were American it would be quite interesting to find out exactly who gave him promises.
If Shaakashvili planned and ordered this adventure alone, with no assurances of military support from another state then he's quite likely insane. But I don't think that's the case. Someone or some group must have convinced him his backside was covered militarily if he occupied Ossetia. Now that it's all gone wrong and he's left holding the bag I'm a bit surprised that Shaakashvili is not naming names. Maybe he's been promised a personal gift from whomever has been whispering in his ear: an unpleasant gift if he talks and a generous gift if he keeps quiet.
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All quite likely, Mark. Your last reminded me of the simplicity of the Noriega Doctrine - as he stated it, "Plata, palos, y plomo." Cash for our friends, clubs for the undecided, and lead for our enemies.
Papa Bush brought Noriega to the States, and Baby Bush made sure not to misplace his doctrine in the files :)
Interesting. I forgot to mention that Israel has offered to move oil from Georgia bound for India or Asia through Israeli ports. Israel has also supplied significant weapons and training to Georgia, including sophisticated drone aircraft capable of both surveillance and attack. Israel has taken a great interest in the Caspian region and Georgian politics.
More in this article at DEBKAfile.
Game as been going on for over a century. See bio of famous Georgian for perspective:
Young Stalin by Simon Sebag Montefiore
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