McCain Strategist Lobbyist for Georgia;
Scheer: Did He Stage Provocation?
McCain's campaign strategist Randy Scheunemann was a lobbyist for Georgia until recently, and remained part of Orion Strategies until May 15. OS had signed a $2 mn. deal to provide "strategic advice" to the Georgian government.
Update: Bob Scheer entertains dark suspicions that Scheunemann, a leader of the Neoconservative Project for theNew American Century, put Saakashvili up to provoking Russia in hopes of providing the Republican Party with a foreign policy crisis to run on.
Can't put anything past the PNAC folks, who are the sleaziest political operators in American history (and that's saying a mouthful). But I can't see the percentage for Saakashvili taking a chance like this, for the sake of a candidate who might well lose.
Bad as it is to have paid lobbyists for foreign powers running presidential campaigns, it is even worse (because less transparent) to have de facto lobbyists for foreign governments (or wannabe governments) influential in presidential campaigns. Think about Ahmad Chalabi.
At least we're talking about Scheunemann, now. McCain's connections to Chalabi in 1999 were not public.
posted by Juan Cole @ 8/13/2008 12:30:00 AM
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The war on the ground in South Ossetia may have been won by Russia, but the US political establishment and media are busy beating Russia to a pulp in the real war (at least to them), the media war. In the media war, Georgia (which invaded) is a victim and Russia (which responded to the invasion) is the invader.
Wonder if they got the contract by casually mentioning that their man had the ear of the man who could well be [shudder] the next president of the United States. And that he'd of course be able to take care of business. So to speak.
Perish the thought. Influence peddling at that level? These are men of priniciple. This is the Republican Party, after all.
Dear Profssor Cole
Georgia's exports are described by the CIA factbook as
Georgia's main economic activities include the cultivation of agricultural products such as grapes, citrus fruits, and hazelnuts; mining of manganese and copper; and output of a small industrial sector producing alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, metals, machinery, aircraft and chemicals. The country imports nearly all its needed supplies of natural gas and oil products.
It does however have a reputation as a transit route for Heroin and People traficing.
Illicit drugs:
limited cultivation of cannabis and opium poppy, mostly for domestic consumption; used as transshipment point for opiates via Central Asia to Western Europe and Russia
Interesting candidate for a PR job.
Somebody should put in a kind word for Herr von Scheunemann. He seems to be a great treasure to his clients’ enemies. If he can do for Cap’n M’Cain what he appears to have done for M. de Saakashvili, why, America will owe him a medal and a ticker-tape parade!
But possibly Orion Strategies did not furnish the Rosicrucians with ‘strategy’ on how to handle M. Putin, only on how to handle Congress? Well, OK, but Von Scheunemann does not look impressive from that point of view either. It remains possible that Capitol Hill might rise up at the last moment and attempt to force a specific foreign policy on The Boy. This is not impossible, but few things are less likely.
It may be a bit too early to be absolutely certain that the customers did not get their laris’ worth [1] from Orion, but it would be downright foolish to bet the other way.
Happy days.
___
[1] Hmm. Was Larry their previous lobbyist at Crawford and Beltway City, the one before Randy?
What has happened to the integrity of super-negotiator Richard Holbrooke? I previously had great respect for Holbrooke as a honest, gifted diplomat/envoy, but the views he spouted on the PBS NewsHour last night (see discussion on Steve Clemons blog http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2008/08/rush_news_hour/) leave me to believe that he has joined the neocon camp of spouting un-truths about the facts in the Georgia-Russia conflict. Maybe I am confused and getting my facts wrong (such as, from the Asia Times (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH12Ag02.html) but looks like the Bush machine and the press are in high-gear mode in an Iraq-type campaign to vilify Russia and coddle Georgia. And Holbrooke is falling in line lock-step to support their efforts.
Juan asks, what's the percentage for Saakashvili in starting a war with Russsia? Perhaps Saakashvili was reassured in private that the US would support Georgia. If Saakashvili believed this promise, it would reduce the risk of war. In reality the US is limiting the support to the rhetorical support, while milking the situation for its anti-Russian propaganda.
as they say (and probably a whole hell of a lot in the WH the last few years):
There is a sucker born every minute.
"...looks like the Bush machine and the press are in high-gear mode in an Iraq-type campaign to vilify Russia and coddle Georgia. And Holbrooke is falling in line lock-step to support their efforts."
Saakashvili has a formidable PR machine well integrated with western main stream press. With the exception of the very first reports following Georgia's Operation Clean Fields 3 AM bombardment of Tskhinvili and ground invasion of the border areas, western press generally adopted a Cold War retread of evil Russia attempting to enforce hegemony over the Caucasus. This meme has also been used recently to de-legitimate Russian objections regarding Kosovo, the missile/radar complexes intended for Poland and the Czech Republic, and the intrusion of NATO into Ukraine and Georgia.
That Holbrooke has made statements against Russia that seem to be verbatim Cold War rhetoric is a reflection of the fundamental consensus shared by most of the US political elite with regard to fundamental issues of empire. While there are tactical differences between the factions (aka the Democratic and Republican Parties), there is little that distinguishes them as far as commitment to the American Imperium is concerned.
Holbrooke's career has included such highlights as serving as US Ambassador to Germany in the early 1990's, when Germany was facilitating Croatia breaking away from Yugoslavia under Ustasha-inspired (the native Croatian fascist party that collaborated with Nazi occupation during WWII) leadership.
In 1977 while an Undersecretary of State, Holbrooke went to Indonesia, ostensibly to pressure the Suharto dictatorship to pull back from its brutal repression in East Timor. Following his meeting with Suharto, Holbrooke praised Indonesia's "improvements" in human rights and subsequently, along with Zbigniew Brzezinski, worked against efforts in the US Congress to condition military support for the Suharto regime on ending the genocide against the Timorese. In fact, Holbrooke and Brzezinski were instrumental in increasing military/arms support to Indonesia at the height of the genocide campaigns.
As US Ambassador to the United Nations from 1999-2001, Holbrooke was essential in maintaining the sanctions regime against Iraq, which was designed to break the Iraqi people and foment an internal revolt against the Saddam regime. His boss Madeleine Albright famously opined that the death of 500,000 Iraqi children due to the sanctions regime was "worth it." His service in the UN was instrumental in preventing any real airing of the suffering imposed by the sanctions regime, and the weekly bombing of Iraq throughout the Clinton regime.
Here Comes Freddie!
Vice President Dick Cheney's declaration Saturday that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered" was seen by some experts as the first salvo of what could be a new battle over administration policy. Some conservatives believe the administration has not been tough enough with Russia. FREDERICK W. KAGAN, a neoconservative scholar who has advised the Bush administration, praised Cheney's comment and faulted President Bush for failing to outline to the Russians the consequences of pressing their assault. Kagan and others are marshaling arguments for the policy deliberations already underway over how to deal with the aftermath of the Georgian crisis. (...) Kagan said the U.S. should announce that it will provide military aid to Georgia. "It would be great if we were to announce we are going to help the Georgians rebuild as part of the compensation for their efforts in Iraq," Kagan said.
Other regional experts believe the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should enforce a no-fly zone over Georgia to put a halt to Russian air attacks.
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The Los Angeles Times writers (Julian E. Barnes and Peter Spiegel) do not go hog-wild the way Mr. Scheer does. Nothing can make M. de Saakashvili look moderate or prudent, but it would not be absolutely insane to provoke trouble on the assumption that he has the Force of Cheney behind him, guided by the peerless tactical intellect of Rear-Colonel Friedrich Kagan. Maybe that crew are not in full control down at Rancho Crawford -- who can tell from the outside? -- but they are at least inside the compound perimeter.
Whereas to count exclusively on the friendship of Herr von Scheunemann and J. Sidney McCain, when they are still more than five months out of hyperpower, and may even fail to get in ... ! "Words fail me, my lords!"
Happy days.
JHM: "It would be great if we were to announce we are going to help the Georgians rebuild as part of the compensation for their efforts in Iraq," Kagan said.
With help from Cheney and Bush, they'll be bankrupt in a year.
McCain may want a foreign policy crisis to run on, but I can't see how he'd want this one. We have no troops to put in Georgia, and we can hardly bomb Russia, so there is no military solution. And the only solution to foreign policy crises Republican talking heads know is military—they label every form of diplomacy "appeasement."
Hey, did somebody just say appeasement? That's funny, because this one actually will end in appeasement—the West gives Russia de facto control of the disputed territories in return for a promise not to invade anything else. Bush's only problem will be pretending to keep his fingerprints off it. Easy when Sarkozy was doing the negotiating, harder now that he's sending Condi.
As I noted in a previous post, McCain will be fair game on the Caucasus crisis, after the DNC. I copied this Machievellion comment on US strategy in the Caucasus, from a reactionary blog that is popular with Game theorists. Participants are such gas-bags that they would be likely to spill goods in order to impress fellow miscreants. If Bush heard this in June, he would run with it. The Game is to make McCain appear to be part of the central cast and Obama the bit player. This is NOT a parlor game; this Play would have been studied from all angles. Obama has to attack McCain for his manipulation, while supporting self determination for peoples. Handing collective security protection to ONE ethnic cleanser in the Caucasus hardly conduces security. Unfortunately, if Obama follows Brzezinski's tired rhetoric, he will get nowhere. And Wesley Clark is as reckless as McCain. Check this out:
...The Georgian incursion gave the US political cover to make an ABM deal with Poland, get access to Ukranian radar intelligence, and maybe get enhanced facilities inside the Black Sea. Since the Black Sea opens onto the Med, but it doesn’t link to Russian Northern, Pacific or Baltic Fleets NATO has the ability to surge vessels into it in a way that can’t be matched by the Russians. Of course, the Russians could use anti-ship airpower, but that would set off Armaggedon.
What I’d fear most from the Russian point of view is a request by Georgia to “demiltarize” ports it legally owns except for one or two under NATO control. Under International Law, the Western ports remain Georgian. Over time, the Georgians can diplomatically ensure that the Russian Army cannot be resupplied by sea. If the Russians send their convoys, the ports can be mined before their arrival by air with Georgian permission. This means the Georgians, via NATO can have command of the sea while the Russian Army must supply itself overland. That’s fine for now, with the weather good. But in the winter, things will be different, especially if they face a Georgian insurgency. And if the roads are closed or mined by Georgian guerillas, then logistically supplying the Russian occupation Army becomes harder yet.
So I don’t see a confrontation with Russia, rather a slow strangulation of its forces should they decide to stay. If they pull back into Russia, or even into Abkhazia or South Ossetia, I don’t see that NATO forces will do anything to discomfit them. As I said, Putin should cash in now, while the gettin’s good.
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The above makes me sick. Think what an American air/missile/navy base would do to this map:
http://www.djavakhk.com/cartes.php?l=en
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