It’s unrealistic to think that Russia will crush Daesh or will even try. Putin is not out to save the world -- he just wants to protect and advance Russia's interests.
The Arab spring threatened to overthrow the Syrian government, which could dissolve a long-standing Syrian asset for Russia and potentially replace it with a liability. Assad was the key link to the status quo so Putin took actions to block Western intervention against Assad. The Western alliance allowed themselves to be dissuaded because it appeared for a while that internal opposition was strong enough to ensure that Assad's overthrow was just a matter of time. Plus, there was little appetite for military intervention.
Assad proved to have staying power, with Russian and Iranian support. The vague Syrian opposition groups that were mildly and incompetently supported by the US are now only minor threats or rolled into the greater threat of Daesh.
Daesh is a problem for the whole region that is dynamic, not confined by borders, threatens to grow, and has no apparent solution. Not even the fullest capability of Russia, applied in a brutal manner, could crush them. It could even be said that Daesh thrives on opposition.
Accordingly, I think Putin will be content for now if he can just establish a Daesh-free zone in Syria that is suitable to protect Russia’s interests. They will knock off any significant remaining Syrian opposition groups that they see as troublesome. They will likely flex their muscle to keep Daesh out of certain key areas without picking a general fight. Russia will avoid becoming a Daesh target and part of the price for that may be to cede some of the Syrian territory that is already lost.
On the other hand, Putin may allow Iran to exterminate Daesh Sunnis to their heart’s content and will help supply the arms. That would result in an Iran with more power and broader influence across the region. Iran may become so strong and allied with Russia that the West could not effectively re-impose sanctions or launch an attack if they resume their nuclear program. Iran may also position themselves to attack Israel and are already on their way to achieving an air defense system that could prevent a counter attack.
In other words, Putin and Iran will spin a web in the region that will pose a threat to the US, given them leverage to end sanctions and cause Ukraine to seem like small potatos.
Good article. However, US shale production is a bigger factor in the equation than you suggest and has been growing sharply. I'm sure the Saudis think that tripping up that business is one of the reasons to allow oil prices to run low. Also, as much as I wish you were correct, your view of renewables (and electric cars) is downright utopian unless you are expecting the governments of our struggling world economies to ramp up the subsidies renewables already receive, with a sense of urgency. I'm not seeing that trajectory.
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It’s unrealistic to think that Russia will crush Daesh or will even try. Putin is not out to save the world -- he just wants to protect and advance Russia's interests.
The Arab spring threatened to overthrow the Syrian government, which could dissolve a long-standing Syrian asset for Russia and potentially replace it with a liability. Assad was the key link to the status quo so Putin took actions to block Western intervention against Assad. The Western alliance allowed themselves to be dissuaded because it appeared for a while that internal opposition was strong enough to ensure that Assad's overthrow was just a matter of time. Plus, there was little appetite for military intervention.
Assad proved to have staying power, with Russian and Iranian support. The vague Syrian opposition groups that were mildly and incompetently supported by the US are now only minor threats or rolled into the greater threat of Daesh.
Daesh is a problem for the whole region that is dynamic, not confined by borders, threatens to grow, and has no apparent solution. Not even the fullest capability of Russia, applied in a brutal manner, could crush them. It could even be said that Daesh thrives on opposition.
Accordingly, I think Putin will be content for now if he can just establish a Daesh-free zone in Syria that is suitable to protect Russia’s interests. They will knock off any significant remaining Syrian opposition groups that they see as troublesome. They will likely flex their muscle to keep Daesh out of certain key areas without picking a general fight. Russia will avoid becoming a Daesh target and part of the price for that may be to cede some of the Syrian territory that is already lost.
On the other hand, Putin may allow Iran to exterminate Daesh Sunnis to their heart’s content and will help supply the arms. That would result in an Iran with more power and broader influence across the region. Iran may become so strong and allied with Russia that the West could not effectively re-impose sanctions or launch an attack if they resume their nuclear program. Iran may also position themselves to attack Israel and are already on their way to achieving an air defense system that could prevent a counter attack.
In other words, Putin and Iran will spin a web in the region that will pose a threat to the US, given them leverage to end sanctions and cause Ukraine to seem like small potatos.
Good article. However, US shale production is a bigger factor in the equation than you suggest and has been growing sharply. I'm sure the Saudis think that tripping up that business is one of the reasons to allow oil prices to run low. Also, as much as I wish you were correct, your view of renewables (and electric cars) is downright utopian unless you are expecting the governments of our struggling world economies to ramp up the subsidies renewables already receive, with a sense of urgency. I'm not seeing that trajectory.