US Deters Israel from Attacking Iran;
Russian Cooperation seen Key to Dissuading Tehran's Nuclear Program
The Haaretz article that made such a stir by reporting that the Pentagon had turned down Israeli requests for high-powered equipment to aid an attack on Iran's nuclear research facilities has a coda that I looked at again this morning:
'Russia, however, is considered key to efforts to isolate Iran, and Israeli officials have therefore urged their American counterparts in recent months to tone down Washington's other disputes with Moscow to focus all its efforts on obtaining Russia's backing against Iran. For instance, they suggested that Washington offer to drop its plan to station a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic - a proposal Russia views as a threat, though Washington insists the system is aimed solely at Iran - in exchange for Russia agreeing to stiffer sanctions against Iran. However, the administration rejected this idea.'
You know, somehow, I just think that for Washington to get Russian cooperation for a push against Iran just got a lot more implausible, what with Bush being pushed by McCain to take a harder line in support of Georgia
Russia may also be annoyed with Israel over its arms sales to Georgia.
Then there is this item: Israel fears war could hurt Iran effort.
The Cheney line that Russia needs to be punished, and Rice's warning that Russia will be isolated, may make them feel good. But the US is much weaker after the increase in power of the oil and gas states like Russia and Iran this year, and isn't in a position to "isolate" Russia without at the same time giving a lot of indirect aid to Iran.
posted by Juan Cole @ 8/14/2008 01:36:00 AM
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There are some major differences between Russia's action and those of the US:
Russia won its conflict in days, while the US is still talking about "progress being made" years later.
The US has paid trillions, and thousands of lives. Russia's losses are negligible.
The smart Russians lured Georgia, showing it to be clearly the aggressor. The Americans went into fantasy land about tiny Iraq being a threat to the USA ..and the whole world!!!
America has been scaled down by its actions, from a hyper power to a sore loser. Russia has grown in stature by its action.
Keeping An Eye On Rear-Colonel Kagan
Some experts said the U.S. hasn't gone far enough. "I strongly doubt that Putin is going to be deterred by the prospect of a U.S. humanitarian effort," said FREDERICK KAGAN of the conservative American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Kagan suggested the U.S. could resupply the beleaguered Georgian military, call a session of the former Group of Seven leaders, halt negotiations over Russia's accession to the WTO, and accelerate reconsideration of Georgia's NATO application. A long-term and more symbolic option would be to threaten a boycott of the 2014 Olympics to be held in the Russian resort of Sochi.
Happy days.
Frankly, since the US dared to invade Iraq in 2003, she should just shut up now, instead of playing the part of the frightened virgins now that Russia is supporting the Ossetes against the Georgians. Not to speak about the fact that :
1) Russia unlike the US is intervening in its immediate neighbourhood,not thouthands of miles away
2) Russia has been called by the Ossetes who have Russian passports and as such are citizen of Russia.
3) America has been playing in the backyard of Russia, pinning the Georgians against Russia. Now aprofitting of some right wings governments in the EU, like Sarkosy, Berlusconi and England, not to speak of the Polish, the US is trying to create problems between Russia and the EU. Please, stay away, don't meddle in our business, take care of your own wars which are not going to well and let us negotiate with the Russians without trying to use the NATO and the UN as your tool.
We want to be at peace with the rest of the world. We don't need any American model of democracy, because bullying other nations isn't what we understand through democracy.
The Americans are now the worst threat to peace. We don't need you, we don't share your values.
Let me be clear, I think that the Russian actions in Georgia are an indication of Russian efforts at re-establishing satellite governments, and as such, represent a major threat to the Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states (in addition to Georgia). On the other hand, I don't think that they are being led by the nose by war-profiteers.
My question is this: does the Russian action in Georgia prevent a US or Israeli attack on Iran? (Is it something like a swerving the car back and forth to get the kids in the backseat to stop fighting?)
Did this calculus enter in to the Russian decision to proceed in the way they have chosen?
This story makes me wonder to what extent Russia is also saying to the US: Cancel your plans for Iran. Now.
The Pentagon staff and planners can barely conceal their delight.
The American military-industrial-propaganda complex needs a Big Enemy to keep those trillions of dollars flowing to the military and to the armaments contractors along with keeping the citizens docile and distracted with supposed alien threats. The Middle Eastern states were small potatoes. The American government had a tough time convincing the public that the Arabs and Persians were scary enough to justify all the arms contracts and far off wars.
Now there are wide smiles in Washington (privately of course. The mood at the press conferences for public consumption is theatrically somber). The U.S. military establishment and the politicians now have the Georgia conflict which they can use to segue into a brand new cold war and arms race with Russia. The military-industrial-propaganda complex has longed for the "good ol' days" when America and Russia were at each other's throats and the money and the drinks were flowing. This is their chance to recapture the spirit. Instead of fixing the infrastructure and replacing our petroleum based economy the criminal government of the United States can divert the public's attention to our battle against the Big Enemy. Repairing America itself and improving the life of its citizens is an extraordinarily complex, difficult and expensive job. Fixing roads and bridges isn't glamorous either like showing off bright and shiny new tanks and aircraft. Improving America can be kept on the back burner forever as long as we're "forced" to parry every move made by the Big Enemy.
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OMG! Today Ossetia, tomorrow Boston.
Juan, your post sounds as though you think McCain and the Administration are wrong to undermine their Iran-containment efforts by pissing off Russia. If that's the case, I'm not convinced. I have more misgivings these days about Russian intentions and the dangers its leadership pose to the world than about Iran. If our efforts at some variation on the theme of containment are focused on a bellicose Russia rather than Iran, that might be the better policy in the long run. Not that the U.S. is in a great position to be dictating containment policies, but all else being equal...
Thx for the Haaretz news links, which re-focus the effect of the Georgia disaster on the risk of a breakdown in Iran negotiations.
It would appear that the cheerleaders for our Iraq war are now pushing for US brinksmanship in support of Saakishvilli's untenable position. The Georgian president is coordinating message by making public announcements to the effect that US warships will be pulling into his Russian occupied ports.
At first glance, the Iranians look to be the winners, as Putin's support for US-Euro sanctions become very shakey, and other countries and businesses eye windfall Iranian oil monies and homeland defense needs.
However, if pressure on Iran to cease enrichment suffers major setback, and McCain's 'bomb Iran' chorus falls out of the top ten in Washington, a lame duck Likud strike on Iran perhaps looks like the way for Cheney-Likud hawks to throw a match and fan the flames.
Is it possible that the Kagan-Libby types that find favor with both Cheney and McCain were in the shadows, whispering in Saakishvilli's ear to roll the dice? They're certainly in the crowd watching Georgia get burned, and shouting suggesions that would seem to make things worse.
One thing the Putin-Saakishvilli war underscores is that leader personalities and psychology can be at the heart of major events with global implications. The US seems to have elevated our own high conflict personalities to the status of players in the still-serving admin, as well as in McCains campaign.
We should not be fooled by a half-smile and low sonorous voice tones. Once the coin drops in the juke box, Bomb Iran is not a dance tune. Are the half-smile DJ's turning up the heat for another mosh pit? Been there, still bruised and dizzy.
Before Georgia's attack into Ossetia put Suskind and our attacks into Pakistan on the back pages, diplo-economic containment of Iran was progressing pretty well.
Iran has to know that rival Arabia will match any nuclear program, and in fact has a paid for interest in the Pakistani bomb and Taliban. The best Iranian nukes can achieve is MAD. So giving up enrichment in return for security guarantees from the US, and a nuclear free neighborhood, that would be a pretty good deal for an Iranian trend toward regional influence.
Likud's AIPAC supporters see it differently and will certainly seek their own advantage in Georgia's predicament.
We've seen how Russia answers aggression from others. Georgia should receive a gold medal for such an expedient retreat. However, is it possible Russia will answer the U.S. missile defense plans in Poland and the Czech Rep which will protect America from Iran by stationing their missiles in South America to protect Russia from those evil Hondurans? The Russians didn't do anything until someone tries to do something to them. They match ridiculous with ridiculous too. After all, Russia is the largest country in the world. I am certain they aren't going to loose sleep over U.S. political negligence best described as amateur-hour. My personal dumb opinion. I am certain we will see them station missiles out in South America.
Well said, Christiane. How long will it be I wonder, before Joe Sixpack wakes up and asks, "Why all these crises? Who is it that is leading us by the nose?"
I'm an optimist. It will happen. It always has, hasn't it?
The smart Russians lured Georgia, showing it to be clearly the aggressor... America has been scaled down by its actions, from a hyper power to a sore loser. Russia has grown in stature by its action.
So many people love war. Or perhaps just to watch and root for their team on TV.
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