When Alexander defeated Darius the 3rd about 2500 years ago, he created a watershed event. A few hundred years later, the new Persian rulers, the Parthians, came to power declaring that the defeat of Persia in the hands of Alexander was due to their softness. They posited that only brutal wars can scare aggressive states against invading Iran. They proved themselves by repeatedly defeating Roman and other invaders. The Sassanian dynasty followed the same philosophy when king Shapur captured and enslaved Valerian and 70,000 of his Legionaries- leading to the quick fall of Roman empire. If the Iranian nationalism wakes up in a way North Korean one awakened, many states will be sorry.
Or may be this ignorance is by design. Look at the latest polls on the Iran deal in USA. On the one hand the majority of Americans want the deal to stay and the same majority believe Iran has cheated and the agreement should be renegotiated. I suppose the same majority that believes in Noah's arc. As long as the majority are so ill-informed, it is easy to play with them.
The first responsibility of every state is to protect its citizens against actual and potential harm. Given Uncle Sam's posture and Israel's non-stop threats (& both are nuclear armed states), why should Iran refrain from developing its own military deterrent? In talking to my relatives in Iran who are squarely in the "opposition" camp, the same people that US says are her concerns, they are criticizing the government for being naive and leaving Iran defenseless. That is the real story. When the reformist camp in Iran sides with the hardliners there, all bets are off.
I grew up in Iran in a politically active and leftist family under Shah. Even one of my cousins died fighting for the "Kurdish cause," even though he was Persian. Given the collusion of many Kurdish groups with outside players (many weak ethnic groups seem to fall into that trap), even among the left in Iran, Kurds developed a reputation for being easy to manipulate by the strongest forces and sort of a mercenary group. Clearly this does not apply to many Kurds but nonetheless the reputation has persisted. Recent report about the coordination between Democratic Party of Kurdistan and Saudis has been troubling. There were a number of reports as well detailing how Israel has found a strong beachhead in Iraqi Kurdistan with money, agents, weapons and trainers. Pejak and the Kurdish democratic party of Iran have constantly waged attacks across the border in Iran and found refuge in the Iraqi Kurdish territory. If the so called Independence move goes forward and there is more tension in the region, expect Iran to assume a much more aggressive posture towards these militant Kurdish groups.
On the surface, this is sounds like progress, however, to me it sounds nauseating to think of eating lab created meat. Much better to go vegetarian. The larger issue is overpopulation intertwined with crony capitalism that is destroying this planet. Unless we address that, there shall be no hope.
These statements are generally true, however they undersell the Iranian nationalism. I hear from relatives in Iran who are fully in the dissident camp that they are fed up with the Iranian government for bending to US pressures and now leaving Iran defenseless. There might be an alliance of hardliners and hard core nationalists forcing the system to establish the military redlines. If this happens, my guess is that Iran will leapfrog North Korean and will go for the H-bomb directly. Let's not forget that America's reaction to North Korean bluster has shown the world the world sheriff is getting old and toothless. We are witnessing a new emerging, multipolar world order and US will slowly walks away from the position of being the police, the judge and the executioner. All said, given America's declining power, I do not see a major military threat against Iran let alone an actual war.
Iraq has never compensated Iran for its 8-year death and destruction and instead under US pressure has paid reparations to Kuwait and Saudis. Just on this fact alone, I make an exception and say that Iran has every right (As long as US is in Iraq) to control Iraqi political discourse.
Well-said. If you look at places like Colombia, the demand of the government was for FARC and ELN to disarm and recognize the authority of the state as necessary conditions for the conflict to end. In Syria we have uninvited guests and invited guests fighting for influence and foothold.
One should not believe in this level of divide in politics. I would not believe for a second that Mattis defied Trump. On matters of such importance, the entire security establishment must be on-board.
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When Alexander defeated Darius the 3rd about 2500 years ago, he created a watershed event. A few hundred years later, the new Persian rulers, the Parthians, came to power declaring that the defeat of Persia in the hands of Alexander was due to their softness. They posited that only brutal wars can scare aggressive states against invading Iran. They proved themselves by repeatedly defeating Roman and other invaders. The Sassanian dynasty followed the same philosophy when king Shapur captured and enslaved Valerian and 70,000 of his Legionaries- leading to the quick fall of Roman empire. If the Iranian nationalism wakes up in a way North Korean one awakened, many states will be sorry.
It would be interesting to see a full engagement of S-400 system against Israeli airforce.
Professor Cole,
China still has ways to go- perhaps till 2040 to catch up with US GDP. If we count per Capita GDP, then it probably has to wait 100 years.
Or may be this ignorance is by design. Look at the latest polls on the Iran deal in USA. On the one hand the majority of Americans want the deal to stay and the same majority believe Iran has cheated and the agreement should be renegotiated. I suppose the same majority that believes in Noah's arc. As long as the majority are so ill-informed, it is easy to play with them.
The first responsibility of every state is to protect its citizens against actual and potential harm. Given Uncle Sam's posture and Israel's non-stop threats (& both are nuclear armed states), why should Iran refrain from developing its own military deterrent? In talking to my relatives in Iran who are squarely in the "opposition" camp, the same people that US says are her concerns, they are criticizing the government for being naive and leaving Iran defenseless. That is the real story. When the reformist camp in Iran sides with the hardliners there, all bets are off.
I grew up in Iran in a politically active and leftist family under Shah. Even one of my cousins died fighting for the "Kurdish cause," even though he was Persian. Given the collusion of many Kurdish groups with outside players (many weak ethnic groups seem to fall into that trap), even among the left in Iran, Kurds developed a reputation for being easy to manipulate by the strongest forces and sort of a mercenary group. Clearly this does not apply to many Kurds but nonetheless the reputation has persisted. Recent report about the coordination between Democratic Party of Kurdistan and Saudis has been troubling. There were a number of reports as well detailing how Israel has found a strong beachhead in Iraqi Kurdistan with money, agents, weapons and trainers. Pejak and the Kurdish democratic party of Iran have constantly waged attacks across the border in Iran and found refuge in the Iraqi Kurdish territory. If the so called Independence move goes forward and there is more tension in the region, expect Iran to assume a much more aggressive posture towards these militant Kurdish groups.
On the surface, this is sounds like progress, however, to me it sounds nauseating to think of eating lab created meat. Much better to go vegetarian. The larger issue is overpopulation intertwined with crony capitalism that is destroying this planet. Unless we address that, there shall be no hope.
These statements are generally true, however they undersell the Iranian nationalism. I hear from relatives in Iran who are fully in the dissident camp that they are fed up with the Iranian government for bending to US pressures and now leaving Iran defenseless. There might be an alliance of hardliners and hard core nationalists forcing the system to establish the military redlines. If this happens, my guess is that Iran will leapfrog North Korean and will go for the H-bomb directly. Let's not forget that America's reaction to North Korean bluster has shown the world the world sheriff is getting old and toothless. We are witnessing a new emerging, multipolar world order and US will slowly walks away from the position of being the police, the judge and the executioner. All said, given America's declining power, I do not see a major military threat against Iran let alone an actual war.
Mr. Sadr would be a fool to display outright hostility to Iran. He may die in a car accident or be totally marginalized in Iraqi politics.
Iraq has never compensated Iran for its 8-year death and destruction and instead under US pressure has paid reparations to Kuwait and Saudis. Just on this fact alone, I make an exception and say that Iran has every right (As long as US is in Iraq) to control Iraqi political discourse.
Gareth Porter in his groundbreaking report showed that the Turkish intelligence provided training and assistance to Nusra in 2013 chemical attack.
The article has one "small" missing detail: pretty much all of Saudi Arabia's oil is in the Shia area.
Well-said. If you look at places like Colombia, the demand of the government was for FARC and ELN to disarm and recognize the authority of the state as necessary conditions for the conflict to end. In Syria we have uninvited guests and invited guests fighting for influence and foothold.
"The only adult in the room?" We are in trouble then, deep trouble.
One should not believe in this level of divide in politics. I would not believe for a second that Mattis defied Trump. On matters of such importance, the entire security establishment must be on-board.