Informed Comment Homepage

Thoughts on the Middle East, History and Religion

Header Right

  • Featured
  • US politics
  • Middle East
  • Environment
  • US Foreign Policy
  • Energy
  • Economy
  • Politics
  • About
  • Archives
  • Submissions

© 2025 Informed Comment

  • Skip to content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Member Profile

Total number of comments: 18 (since 2013-11-28 16:44:32)

Peter T

Showing comments 18 - 1
Page: 1

  • Where did ISIL go? Is it regrouping for an Iraq Comeback?
    • Peter T 03/24/2018 at 6:38 pm

      This was to be expected. The Khmer Rouge hung on for years along the Thai border, the Basmachi for a decade in Central Asia and so on. ISIS is likely to slowly decay as cadres age, fighters are killed and remaining support dwindles. It won't be quick, but I don't see the conditions for the re-emergence as a major force there at the moment..

  • Syria: A Market bombing kills 38 and Explains why Government won Syria War
    • Peter T 03/23/2018 at 4:32 am

      The rebel faction in a civil war almost always ends up controlled by extremists, who are the most cohesive and dedicated (Cromwell's Presbyterians, Dutch, Scottish and French Calvinists, the Bolsheviks, the Jacobins, the Communists...). So no surprise here. In this case, they lacked the critical mass, consistent outside support or control of key centres that might have carried them to a repellent victory.

  • Iran's Khamenei to Putin: Isolate US by dumping the Dollar
    • Peter T 11/03/2017 at 10:45 pm with 2 replies

      A map of iran's rail network is surprisingly informative. Since 79 they have built links to Pakistan, Central Asia, China (through Central Asia), to their Indian Ocean ports. Improved links to Russia through Azerbaijan have been in progress for some time. They are building two links to the Iraqi network, and working on the Turkish link (bypass the Lake Van ferry). All this is addition to significant extensions/improvements to the internal network. They clearly aim to restore their old position as the landbridge between Europe and Inner Asia.

  • Barzani gambled it all and Lost-- Kurdistan Pres. ending Career
    • Peter T 10/30/2017 at 6:10 am

      Barzani has been selling oil through Turkey and splitting the proceeds. He thought Erdogan would back him. But Turkey, the US, Iran, Iraq all signalled opposition. When the PUK folded (after talks with Tehran's emissary), the game was up. The KDP succession is the next flash point.

  • ISIL was ended not by Trump or Obama but by Muslims
    • Peter T 10/18/2017 at 6:08 am

      You might add the Syrians of the Syrian Arab Army, who held Deir ez-Zor for four years against very ISIS assault, who held Kuweires airbase, who have fought from Aleppo to Mayadin and spent lives eliminating the ISIS threat to towns such as Salamiyah. Alawis, yes, but also Sunni, Shi'a, Druze (like the commander in Deir ez Zor) and Christian.

  • No, It Wasn't Iran: Top 7 Reasons Baghdad took Kirkuk
    • Peter T 10/18/2017 at 6:21 am

      I think Barzani saw his position vis-a-vis Baghdad and his Kurdish rivals weakening as the ISIS war winds down, and thought Turkey would support him as counterweight to the PKK and maybe to Baghdad as well. But he miscalculated on all fronts - neither Baghdad nor Tehran nor Ankara will tolerate Kurdish independence, although the latter two are comfortable with autonomy.

  • Putin's End Game in Syria
    • Peter T 06/19/2017 at 6:26 am

      Since US policy has been a mix of the delusional and the ambiguous from the start, "constructive cooperation" is likely to be beyond it. But Egypt, Iran and Turkey all share Putin's goal of retaining a united Syria, and have at various points cooperated to that end. Since Iraq is also firmly of the same view, and Jordan edging to it, where does that leave the US?

  • The Economic Crisis of Greying World: 30 Countries have more Elderly than Children
    • Peter T 08/11/2016 at 8:13 am

      Immigration simply postpones the problem - and not for long either. Barring catastrophes, we are simply going to have to work or way through this. But I am surprised that no mention is made of the transfer from looking after children to looking after the aged, nor consideration to the fact that, as the societies affected are mostly much richer than in the past, they can easily support extended retirement. And pensions often support manual workers, whose life expectancy is not rising.

  • Pyrrhic Victory? As Iraq rolls back Daesh, can it stay together as a Country?
    • Peter T 06/19/2016 at 10:08 pm

      With respect, I think this is overblown. The Kurdish calls for independence come from Barzani relatives, a discredited group. The Mosul ones are from the ex-governor's clique, an inveterate intriguer with very little support even in Ninawa.

      Shi'a militia outrages have been few and swiftly condemned, but widely publicised in conservative Arab media. Sunni representation in Iraqi forces (including militias) has increased markedly.

      The Sunni are not going to return to their previous position as the dominant political element. This is a grievance to many of them, but one they show signs of reconciling to.

  • The Chinese are Coming: First 'New Silk Road' Train reaches Iran's Capital
    • Peter T 02/17/2016 at 9:22 pm

      Iran has been steadily investing in its rail network since the revolution. Now has links to Pakistan and Azerbaijan, new link to Kazakhstan, new border crossing at Sarakhs, link under construction to Herat in Afghanistan, two links to Iraqi network (one at Basra, one through Hamadan) and mooted link to Armenia as well as improving the link to Turkey. All this as well as much internal construction and improvement. It's a good gauge of its standing among its neighbours.

  • If Defeating ISIL/ Daesh is so imp't, why isn't Ramadi Campaign all we're talking about?
    • Peter T 12/11/2015 at 3:10 am

      re Tikrit, reports I saw suggested that the reprisals were mostly Sunni on Sunni (tribes that had sided with ISIS were prevented from returning by those who had resisted and suffered ISIS punishment). A key issue for Sunnis is that they are fragmented politically in the face of the more numerous and united Shi'a and Kurds (noting that both the latter have their factions).

  • Kurdish Fighters cut Road between ISIL centers of Raqqa and Mosul
    • Peter T 11/14/2015 at 1:57 am

      The fling at the Iraqi Army is unjustified. They've had their bad moments, but they have secured Baghdad, re-taken Tikrit and Baiji, cleared the area around Ramadi (and now look to take the city itself), held Hadithi and so on. As Gen Rupert Smith pointed out, the defense now has extraordinary advantages given that urban areas are so extensive and weapons like RPGs and IEDs so plentiful. If the enemies ISIS generates on every side each do their bit, it can't last long (although it will go down hard).

  • Could Sunni-Shiite Rift make Tikrit a Pyrrhic Victory? Al-Azhar & Shiite Militias
    • Peter T 03/16/2015 at 1:58 am

      I have seen conflicting reports of militia behaviour: some vague ones of houses being burned, but also:

      - a report quoting a militia leader that strict instructions had been given to behave correctly;
      - reports of militia help evacuating given to locals around Tikrit;
      - an interview with a member of a Sunni unit in a Shia militia. Recruited from around Tikrit, and enthusiastic about being in a force that knew its business.
      - tribal leaders in Anbar and Salahuddin calling for militia paricipation and help, as the force with the numbers and motivation to defeat Daesh.

      While I think the jury is still out on this one, and we are likely to see some ugly behaviour, the picture is more nuanced than a lot of people allow.

  • Bombings in Pakistan Kill over 100, as Shiites are Targeted
    • Peter T 01/12/2013 at 12:08 am with 1 replies

      Israel should be worrying more about Pakistan than about Iran - it looks to be well on the way to being the first major climate-change induced failed state, and the first with nuclear arms.

  • The Rise of the Sunnis and the Decline of Iran, Iraq and Hizbullah: The Middle East in 2013
    • Peter T 01/01/2013 at 10:10 pm

      Interesting piece. I think it overstates Sunni solidarity (especially as linking non-Arab Turkey with Syria or Saudi). It's hard for modern states to fragment unless there are established internal lines of demarcation, as in Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, so I find it hard to envisage Syria fragmenting along Sunni/Shia lines. But there is likely to be greater opportunity for Sunni in Iraq and Syria to forge alliances, possibly backed by Saudi (as observed, where the Kurds fit in will be a question). But this would push Syrian Shia across the border into Lebanon or into Iraq, strengthening Shia parties in both. And Shia, as the largest bloc in Lebanon, will retain considerable political strenght regardless of the outcome in Syria.

      I would also note that Iran is in a different class economically than Syria or the petro-states. It has a large industrial sector (and sanctions are probably encouraging local development). It's closer to Turkey or Brazil as an emerging industrial power than to a petro-state. Hence the problems it poses for israle and the US.

  • Drones, Drones Everywhere, and now we've given them to Iran
    • Peter T 04/23/2012 at 8:56 am

      I agree with the last comment - drones are like Tamerlane's raids - they hurt, but they don't change anything, and they focus the other side on getting even. Iraq showed the US Army as hollow, so it would be better to concentrate on making friends rather than irritating people who know you can't really afford to go to war with them.

  • Faster than Expected Climate Change means drought, war, famine for Middle East, Africa
    • Peter T 03/26/2012 at 7:41 pm

      Watch how fast denial swings into action.

      Can't see "water wars" myself. Just slow misery and local competition - already happening, as you note, on the West Bank.

  • Is Iraq's Arab League Summit being Overshadowed by Sectarian Violence?
    • Peter T 03/23/2012 at 11:15 pm

      I have the impression that Sunni resistance to Iraq's government is fuelled by a deep belief that Shia rule is illegitimate (in much the same way that C17 France could not tolerate a Protestant ruler, or England a Catholic one), and that this is more ort less true across the Arab Sunni world.

Showing comments 18 - 1
Page: 1

Tweet
Share
Reddit
Email

Primary Sidebar

Support Independent Journalism

Click here to donate via PayPal.

Personal checks should be made out to Juan Cole and sent to me at:

Juan Cole
P. O. Box 4218,
Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2548
USA
(Remember, make the checks out to “Juan Cole” or they can’t be cashed)

STAY INFORMED

Join our newsletter to have sharp analysis delivered to your inbox every day.
Warning! Social media will not reliably deliver Informed Comment to you. They are shadowbanning news sites, especially if "controversial."
To see new IC posts, please sign up for our email Newsletter.

Social Media

Bluesky | Instagram

Popular

  • Israel continues to Starve, Target Gaza Civilians in ongoing Genocide
  • Trump never saw a Wind Farm in China, but Beijing has half of all Installed Wind Capacity and will Eat America's Lunch in this Industry
  • On the Electoral Tactics of the American Historical Association
  • Four Decades of War between Iran and America
  • EU: Suspend Trade Agreement with Israel (HRW)

Gaza Yet Stands


Juan Cole's New Ebook at Amazon. Click Here to Buy
__________________________

Muhammad: Prophet of Peace amid the Clash of Empires



Click here to Buy Muhammad: Prophet of Peace amid the Clash of Empires.

The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam


Click here to Buy The Rubaiyat.
Sign up for our newsletter

Informed Comment © 2025 All Rights Reserved