Juan - they [Gadaffi's intell services] blamed it on Shiite Muslims (there are no Shiite Muslims to speak of in North Africa).
I wonder if Gadaffi's intell services might have blamed it on Ibadi Muslims, some of Libya's Berber are Ibadi's. The WSJ may have assumed that the Ibadi was a Shiite sect, or they decided to say that anyway - most of their audience would not know of the Ibadi.
JUAN, can you make comment on why liberating Sirte is getting more attention then liberating Bani Walid. My understanding is that the latter is the "key" to getting water to Tripoli, without which people may lose confidence in NTC.
Yesterday AJ was reporting NTC no longer suspect Qaddafi's in Sirte. but more likely to be in the interior, Sabha perhaps.
It appears that you don't have to go through Sirte to drive to & fro between Benghazi & Tripoli. There's a road that turns off at As Sultan East of Sirte, goes south of Qasr Abu to link up with coast road west of Sirte at Abugrein.
China has all the money, so they'll simply buy their way back into Libya.
Ban Ki-moon, commissioned a confidential contingency plan, isn't that what he's paid to do. I can't understand why everyone is so "upset" by this report, it's nature is abundantly clear if you read the report and its summary (both available from http://www.innercitypress.com/un1replibya082611.html) It does canvas the potential need for up to 200 unarmed military observers, but it does NOT envisage a Peacekeeping force, a'la East Timor, or Lebanon/Israel - more like the OSCE observers in Georgia.
"Cambodia suffered far more intensely (a sixth of the population genocided) and for decades rather than months",
Most sources (including the Yale Genocide Documentation Centre) have the Cambodian genocide taking place between 1975 (Year Zero) and 1979 when the Vietnamese toppled the Khmer Rouge regime. So the Cambodian genocide happened over 4 years, not decades. After Vietnam's intervention the Soviet backed People's Republic of Kampuchea was created, it wasn't pretty, but it didn't commit genocide. The UNTAC mission went to Cambodia in 1992, shortly after the demise of the Soviet Union.
"One doesn’t remember outsiders supplying such personnel in ... France in 1789."
Perhaps if outsider's had intervened, then the 1793/94 "Reign of Terror" may have been averted, sparing the lives of tens of thousands of French men, women & children. Perhaps even the killing of millions in Napoleon's wars might not have happened. I don't wish the events of post revolutionary France on the Libyan people, nor on their neighbours.
"Free Libya fighters coming from the west are stalled and decline to return fire"
Paul Wood (BBC) is embedded with TNC forces approaching Sirte from the east. On BBC World Service radio he's reporting exchanges of rocket fire, the distinctive sound of Katyusha multiple rocket launchers can be heard in his reports. He's also reporting there may be a ceasefire over the period Eid.
What's needed are people who can write & speak with the same clarity that Rachel Carson & Gene Likens did in the 60's.
Climate Change Yea-Sayers most often remind me of pentecostal preachers, Apple fan-boys & Microsoft evangelists. Seems I'm just expected to believe them - well I don't take heed of the God-botherers, Job's fan-boys or Gate's evangelicals either.
BTW I'm neither uneducated, nor poor, but I am a bicycle riding conservative vegetarian who doesn't own a car.
@Asad - its interesting isn't it, the only US Administration that ever sided with the Shia was the one with a neo-con center - Wolfowitz, Perle, Rumsfeld and Cheney.
The run-of-the-mill Democan & Republicrat Administrations always side with the Sunni.
If/when the Assad regime falls it will inevitably be replaced by a Sunni controlled government. Iraq will then be surrounded on three sides by Sunni governments; Saudi Arabia & Kuwait to the south, Jordan & Syria to the west and Turkey to the north.
The new Syrian government will be pressured by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Turkey to renege on the pipeline deal, so that the SAKT alliance can maintain the chokehold it already has on Iraq's oil/gas exports. This would probably be supported by the US.
The enmity between the Sunni & Shia Arabs seems to have two dimensions. Firstly the differences in religious doctrine, dogma and jurisprudence, secondly the race based enmity between Arabs and Persians. Consequently Sunni Arabs regard Shia Arabs as not only as religious apostates, but also as racial traitors.
@Lloyd - I'll venture an answer to your question re Turkey.
Turkey is being Obama-like, acting like they're the only grown up in the room, avoiding extreme positions etc. Its foreign minister did go to Damascus where he is reported to have "read the riot act" to Assad, and since Assad failed to heed his advice, Turkey has said he must go.
So why don't they "read the riot act" to Iran? Turkey knows Iran would be extremely unlikely to listen and could retaliate by covertly interfering in Turkey's own internal affairs, as it did in the days of the Ottoman Empire.
The Shia suffered decades of oppression from Saddam Hussein, millions of Iraqi Arab Shia were given refuge in Iran, including al-Maliki, far fewer were given refuge in other Arab states.
The majority if Iraqi Arab's are Shia, we've seen what Sunni Arab's think of Shia Arabs in Bahrain.
No matter what the US did or didn't do after the 2003 invasion, it was inevitable that a democratically elected government in Iraq would be dominated by the Shia and be Iran friendly. And I doubt anything would have been different if the Elder Bush had toppled Saddam in '91.
I'm not so sure that an "overbearing military" is necessarily a bad thing. Both Turkey & Indonesia have a powerful military thatwere "overbearing", however the transfer power from the military to democratically elected civilian authorities is a happening in both countries. They're both stable countries with increasing regional influence and they both have growing economies.
Indonesia elected a moderate Islamic scholar as President, then they elected a secular female, then they elected a pragmatic former general, twice. Be interesting to see who they elect next. Indonesia has the world largest Muslim population - 190+ million.
In 1974 Portugal was already in NATO and it had the EU beckoning, same for Spain in '75. Libya can only look forward to continued membership of the UN, Arab League and the African Union.
I don't think there's much value in drawing parallels between what's happening in the Arab world today to what happened in Europe in the 1970-90's - tempting as it is to compare Carnations & Jasmine.
"2 ... The presence of Western troops in Muslim lands creates terrorism" - there haven't been any Western troops in Indonesia (1945), Pakistan (1947), Morocco (1956), Turkey (1923), since they became independent (dates indicated). Yet each of them have had acts of Islamic terrorism within the last decade. This is an "excuse" given by Islamic extremists, it should be given no credence by repeating it.
"6 Consult with Norway about how it is possible for an oil state to remain a democracy." - the operative word here is "remain". Libya is not and never has been a democracy, whereas Norway's democracy has developed organically since it broke away from Sweden in 1814. Norway is NOT an "oil state", it already had a fairly good & diverse economy when it found its oil/gas in the 1960's, and it remains so today. Some of its other industries are timber, hydro, fishing (2nd largest exporter), weapons (6th largest exporter) shipping (6th largest), aluminium (10th largest), high grade specialty steels and pure silicon for the semiconductor industry. Norway puts much of its oil revenues into sovereign wealth funds, Libya has such a fund called the Gaddafi Fund, which has made some bad investments. What Libya should do is to change the fund name and get some honest, competent funds managers - try Singapore.
"7 Use Alaska dividend system & 8 diversify the economy", surely these are contradictory. The "Alaskan dividend" system seems to be a variant of the "Saudi Free Money" system - they don't work, they do harm, they produce layabouts and terrorists of Islamic & Tea-Party kind. The first thing a state should do for its able bodied & minded people is to provide them with the dignity of productive employment and business opportunities, not state handouts.
Libya should use Singapore as an economic model for its development. The only resources Singapore has is people and location, Libya has a similar number of people and its location isn't too bad, the oil should be seen as a bonus. Since independence in 1965 SNG has grown on average by about 9% per annum, it's per capita GDP(PPP) is now $62K (USA is $47K), its income distribution ratios are similar to USA and it has the worlds 5th largest sovereign wealth fund, second only to China for non commodity based economies. There's plenty to criticize about Singapore on the HR & democracy fronts, but having lived in Doha and Singapore I know which is better.
"9. Recognize Berber as a national language." As well the Berber language, I hope they also recognize the rights of minorities such as the Ibadhi's whose jurisprudence differs from the Sunni majority. I've see a version of the constitution document referenced by Brian W that has a different Article 1, no mention of sharia; so I suspect there are different versions for different audiences - now I can't find the sans-sharia version.
The Europeans would be fools to become dependent on a single supplier as they are with Russian Natural Gas.
There's a 350 mile undersea HDVC link from Norway to the Netherlands, which is a similar distance as Tripoli-Messina with possibility of a drop off in Malta.
If desertec becomes a reality then they should have units in Algeria as well as Morocco, Tunisia (which are even closer) and Libya. Maybe they could co-site the Libyan generators with the Green Circles http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4998
The Europeans would be fools to become dependent on a single supplier as they are with Russian Natural Gas.
The Europeans have a 350 mile undersea HDVC link from Norway to the Netherlands, which is a similar distance as Tripoli-Messina with possibility of a drop off in Malta.
If desertec becomes a reality then they should have units in Algeria as well as Morocco, Tunisia (which are even closer) and Libya. Maybe they could co-site the Libyan generators with the Green Circles http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4998
Because the victims were Libyans, and the perpetrators were Libyans it surely follows that any war crimes trials must be carried out by Libyans in Libya.
Perhaps Turkey, as the former colonial power in Libya, is best placed to help Libya make the transition to democracy.
@Purple Library Guy writes "NATO has a track record of installing nasty satraps and ruining countries where their militaries get involved"
Rubbish, NATO has helped create more democracies than the combined efforts of the UN, AU, ASEAN, AL, OSA, GCC etc etc. Examples - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Serbia ...
I can't think of a single satrap that has been installed by NATO, you can't blame nor can you credit the institution for the actions of its individual member states - such as the US in Chile or Iraq, the UK in Sierra Leone or France in Cote d'Ivoire.
Sure these democracies are not perfect - but as Churchill said "... democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."
Sounds too inept and implausible even for US intelligence psy-ops. Sounds more like something that Qaddafi might be putting about whilst his sons sneak off to Zim or SA. He'll stay there and put himself in the way of a NATO bomb,
Good summary Juan, only thing I disagree with is referring to Iraq as a "wounded civilisation". Whilst many civilisations have risen & fallen in the land of the two rivers, they weren't nation states as we know them, and none of them held sway from Umm Qsar to Zakho.
The Turks ruled the territory as three distinct divisions (vilayets) based on Basra, Baghdad & Mosul. The French & the Brits that shoehorned them into a single entity after WW1; a'la Czechoslovakia & Yugoslavia and we know what's happened to them. The same thing will probably happen to Iraq - eventually.
Syria will become another Lebanon, dysfunctional and racked with sectarian conflict, that's why Turkey is being circumspect. Easy for Abdullah when he's 1500k and a couple of countries away from Damascus.
We should always remember that much of the ME was ruled by the Ottoman Empire for centuries. So the Turks know a lot more about the region and the various communities than does the "West".
The Western elites should stop trying to shoehorn Turkey into the EU, it doesn't belong there, its not wanted there and I suspect that most Turks don't want to be there. Turkey can play a far more constructive role within the ME region as a fully independent sovereign nation than as a member of a "Grande (and rapidly failing) Experimentieren".
"which is one reason Warren Hastings ended up being tried AND ACQUITTED."
His prosecutors, Edmund Burke, Charles Fox & Richard Sheridan, were however successful in bankrupting Hastings, All three of them were a) Whigs (conservatives), b) Irish and c) supporters the American Revolution.
LOL - as though Assad, who's facing an existentialist threat, will take any heed of a US President who's become a lame duck after only 30 months in office.
First you say you don't think partition would be stable, and you think (hope) that Victory for Rebels or a Coup in Tripoli is most likely outcome.
Then you conclude by saying that the Balkans air interventions were slow, difficult & frustrating, but with the implication that they will bring about one of the two likely (hoped for) solutions.
But partition was precisely the result that was bought about by the respective NATO air campaigns in both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.
Milosevich was removed from power by the people of Serbia, not by NATO's bombs. The political allies of Karadich are running Republika Srpska today.
Kosovo is a kleptocracy run by drug pedlars and pimps, who don't control all their territory. The Federation of B&H is united in name only, its effectively partitioned into Croat & Bosniak cantons.
Both Kosovo and the B&H Federation continue to need foreign military stabilisation forces to keep them from descending once again into murder & mayhem. There's no chance of NATO or the EU committing forces to a similar operation in Libya. The African Union has a poor record at "peace making/keeping" - eg DRC, Côte d'Ivoire, Somalia, Liberia etc. The Arab League has never shown any inclination to solve its own problems.
Like you I hope for the best - Tripoli Coup & Reconciliation. But I expect the worst - Partition and Protracted Conflict - a'la what's happening in Sudan & Yemen.
An SC 1973 (Libya no-fly zone) style resolution wouldn't have a snowflake in hell's chance of getting up. South Africa & Lebanon would abstain for sure and you can't pass a resolution with 8 yes votes & 7 abstentions.
Condemnatory SC resolutions aren't worth the paper they're written on, SC resolutions imposing sanctions aren't much better, ICC warrants push people into a corner or are ignored etc etc.
Ankara is 425m from Damascus, Turkey & Syria share a 510m land border and Syria was an Ottoman Turk colony between 1516 and 1920.
And Turkey has a 330m border with Syria's friend and ally Iran.
Its easy to pontificate when you're an ocean and 9500km distant with little historical connection. Not to mention that Clintoon represents the worlds biggest economy that's armed to the teeth with everything from M16's to nuclear tipped ICBM's.
But you don't get many bangs for your euro in NL - ie low expenditure on defence - US 4.7%, NL 1.5% of GDP. Put another way US is $2141/person, NL is $759/person.
@Mazlum- Australia has yet to legislate a Carbon Tax, if/when it does then it will commence in 2012, and it will be replaced by an emissions trading scheme (cap & trade) by 2018. It will not reduce Australia's CO2 emissions, at best it will limit their growth
But the reality is that Australia's Great Carbon Tax Swindle is almost certain to be repealed after the next election in 2013, when the incumbents are odds-on to lose government.
Any "fee & dividend" scheme must offer protection to trade exposed industries as well as individuals. Unless you want more unemployment when those industries move offshore.
@ Richard F. Miller - if you think ethnic, cultural & linguistic diversity are a factor in high murder rates then you need to explain why murder rates in Australia are significantly lower than the USA.
About 20% of Australia's population is foreign born, and the murder rate is 1.3 per 100,000. About 13% of the USA population are foreign born and the murder rate is 5.0 per 100,000.
The two counties have other similarities, both are predominantly English speaking, both are highly developed, both have federal political structures.
Points of difference include, no slavery, no wars of independence or civil, and strong gun laws. The latter were strengthened in the 1990's by the conservative Prime Minister John Howard, who George W Bush referred to as a "Man of Steel".
If the Koch Brothers are buying it , then who's selling it.
Seems to me that the American Democracy has been a privately owned enterprise for many decades, maybe forever, irrespective of who's occupying the White House or controlling Congress.
Most of the other so called democracies aren't much better.
@David - Saddam Hussein was a Muslim secular nationalist, Nasser was a Muslim secular ...., Kamal Attaturk was a Muslim secu ...., Yassar Arafat was a Muslim ... Qaddafi is a ....
Juan, where is the evidence of that pricise transaction.
Whilst the munitions are made in Spain, that doesn't he got them from Spain, e.g. some of his US made transport aircraft (Herc's & Chinooks) were sourced from Italy.
My understanding is that these shells aren't fired by free standing weapons. The weapons are incorporated into combat vehicles & boats, all of which appear to made in the Nordic states.
Some African countries are said to have purchased AMOS equipped combat vehicles systems - e.g Namibia, and Lebanon is also believed to have some. The Malaysians have gunships with the AMOS system installed (Malaysia was a link in the nuclear chain from AQ Khan to Qaddifi). Some of UN forces in in Africa have AMOS equipped armoured vehicles, I wouldn't be surprised if they've not lost some.
The arms market as we all know is a very murky business.
"The problem with having the AU mediate is that the leaders chosen are not viewed by the rebels as honest brokers."
I've no idea which African leaders the rebels would accept as "honest brokers", perhaps you can suggest who they might be.
The AU seems incapable of doing anything much about anything, Côte d'Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Dafur, Somalia, the Lords Resistance Army etc etc.
It'll probably be up to the Italians & French to sort out, with the assistance of Turks and Saudis. The Egyptians seem to be inflicted with paralysis, anyway they wouldn't do anything without approval of the US Joint Chiefs.
We would not have the understanding of the ancient Greeks that we do have, were it not for the translation of the original texts by the scholars of the early Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad. Without the translation & preservation of the gospels in their original Greek by the Arabs we possibly wouldn't be celebrating the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible in 2011.
Are we to call the Baghdadi scholars of the Greeks and their texts Occidentalists, and what of their study & translation of Indian & Persian texts, doesn't that make them Orientalists too.
The famed Baghdad museum probably wouldn't have existed to be looted in 2003 if it weren't for the Orientalist Gertrude Bell.
It would be preferable to have the Arabs themselves translating "modern" western texts, rather than relying on westerners doing it for them. But given we have to fight their wars for them, I guess its not asking much to translate our texts for them too.
Keep up the good work Juan - how about doing Hobbes & Locke, and Montaigne wouldn't hurt - and Walt Whitman.
"Note that the transitional government in Benghazi has in contrast offered Qaddafi a ceasefire if he will cease attacking his people."
My understanding is that the rebels offer had other conditionalities attached. These included the withdrawal of all security forces from all population centres and that Gaddafi & his sons leave Libya to go into exile. That was more like a demand for Gaddafi's surrender. At the time it was offered the opposition forces were retreating from Sirte & Ras Lanuf in disarray and the government forces were regaining lost territory. To me their offer seemed somewhat disingenuous.
But not much to Libya Janine, just some air transport - 8 Chinooks, 10 Hercules and 2 Huey helicopters - the Chinooks & Huey's were supplied by Italy.
The Soviet Union & latterly the Russians have been the major supplier of weapons to Libya ever since Qaddafi came to power. Every ship in Libya's Navy (of which I believe the rebels have three) was built in the USSR. The tanks that US/UK/FR planes have been bombing were made in the USSR. The anti-aircraft guns the rebels have in the back of their pickup trucks were made in the USSR.
Libya's Air Defence System is documented here, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23841 All the Surface to Air Missile (SAM) systems are from USSR/Russian , Italy is believed to supplied some radar systems to Libya in the early '80's, as did the USSR.
As I understand it, the current military action under the provisions of SC 1973 are being conducted by a "coalition of the willing and able". So there no chain of command from the forces enforcing SC 1973 to the US SC or the UN Gen Sec; Obama as the US CiC hasn't been reporting to Ban-Ki Moon.
When action is being undertaken under that auspices of the UN Peacekeeping Department then there is a chain of command direct to the UN Head of Peacekeeping and then to the UN Sec Gen. Note the post conflict UN mission in Iraq was not a peacekeeping mission, it was under the control of the two Occupying Powers - US & UK.
The participating countries have an obligation under SC 1973 to inform the SC and Gen Sec of actions taken and progress, but they do report to them, neither the SC or the Sec Gen can issue orders to the "coalition forces".
For me the issue is not whether the bombing of Libya is right or its wrong, or whether the left, liberals, neo-cons, libertines or trotskyites are in favour or against. For me its a fait-accompli, better to think about what next; rather than what if, if only, if never.
The UN Mandated Forces are systematically destroying the weaponry of the Libyan Government Forces.
The UN Mandated Forces are not supplying weapons to the Libyan Opposition Forces.
I find that interesting, [i]very interesting[/i], why, I ask, would they do that.
Libya's eastern neighbour is Egypt, it has a strong military, a large population (80m), but it hasn't got much revenue generating capacity. Libya will soon have a very weak military, it has a small populations (6m), but it has a lot of revenue generating capacity because of its oil.
You should be able to see where I'm going. Libya in whole or in part will become an Egyptian vassal state. With control of Libya's oil Egypt will become a more powerful state. One which can offer a better vision to the region than that offered by the House of Saud.
work to so change our national priorities that we are no longer expected to act as Globocop.
The US is not expected to act as Globocop, it chooses to do so of its own volition. It self declares that it is the world's indispensible nation, and it does all that it can to make it so. That has been the overarching foreign policy of the USA since the end of WW2 at least, and arguably earlier. I think of it as Empire Building by Stealth.
Thanks for this very thoughtful response. You wrote
Bombing is much more severe an action than cutting off military aid, yet the easier action is not even contemplated while the later is actually happening.
But both actions are good for business. Most military aid is in the form of weapons & munitions manufactured by the likes of Chrysler, Honeywell, Lockheed, Boeing etc. Bombs and missiles dropped & fired have to replaced by the likes of General Dynamics, Raytheon, MDBA etc.
I just heard on the radio that Berlusconi and Merkel are engineering a cease fire and an exit strategy for Gaddafi & Sons Inc. The latter would be given sanctuary in Italy (Sardinia perhaps) and/or Germany (maybe Berchtesgaden). From where I assume they can direct terrorist operations, against Britain and France.
I made comment the other day suggesting that the use of the word "allies" to describe those implementing UN-SC 1973 was inappropriate, as it harked back to "Allied Powers" and "Allied Forces" as used in WW1 & WW2 respectively.
If what I just heard is true, then might this a reconstitution of the Axis Powers
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Berlusconi Sarkozy: just can not let us out of pure
Gathered in Brussels for crisis EU summit in Libya, then to France sharply criticized Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi, "They (the Allies) wants to leave us out of pure. But we also have ideas about the subject until at least the French. In fact, German Chancellor Angela Merkel bulaşmamakla this business have been hit, "he said.
Berlusconi "This summit, just plenty of prattle and was babbling. I fell silent. But when it comes time to talk. It's too painful to talk, "he said. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi aimed at David Cameron, "that they do not even know what our role in our in Libya. International rights unaware. Initiatives in the news does not bring any results. I still do not think Gaddafi will resist until the end. However, more than expected according to the chair seat to me. To go into exile, but maybe I can convince him, "he said.
I wonder if "by Professor Cole's old sparring partner Mr Hitchens" you were thinking of Christopher Hitchens, that DM article is by his brother Peter.
I think Christopher is in currently hospital, I doubt that Chris would have targeted Martin Amis in the manner that Peter did at the end of that article; Chris's memoir is testament to his relationship with Martin, which may have something to do with Peter's bitchy comment.
Do we have any reliable evidence for how many people have actually been killed and wounded in Libya since its "troubles" began.
I keep reading and hearing about massacres and genocide, then I read numbers like 16 killed in Misrata & 6 in Zintan.
In the Egyptian Revolution, 365 people were killed & 6,000 were wounded. Yet no one seemed to bat an eyelid, let alone use words like massacre & genocide. As far as I can make out there were probably fewer than a dozen killed in the Tunisian Revolution,
It seems to me that the Libyan "protesters" chose to take up arms rather too quickly. Hence they're now referred to as "rebels", even in the Western Media, whatever happened to "freedom fighters", gone the way of "freedom fries" perhaps.
The Egyptian & Tunisian protesters never took up arms, other than throwing rocks and tear gas canisters back at the security forces.
I suspect that Qaddaffi has enough loot in country to keep this going for quite a long time. He has plenty of friends in the AU who will supply arms and materiel.
US involvement is motivated in part at least by the fact that the French, Brits and Arabs were going to put the resolution forward anyway. The US could have sat on the fence and abstained like the BRIC countries and Germany.
And what would that have said about the US. The US calls itself the "indispensable nation", the core raison d'être of its foreign policy over the last 70 years has been to make that a reality.
"But if a revolutionary can be asked to talk to another of his kind whom the world is anxious to see leave power, just what should we expect from the Museveni-Gaddafi talk?
Well, many will be hard-pressed to believe Foreign Affair’s Sam Kuteesa has already divulged enough of the mission when he said 'it is revolutionary to be democratic'."
Assume the Libyan forces stop attacking Benghazi and retreat to Adjabiya, and the forces attacking Misrata pull back to Tripoli and then Qaddafi declares and sticks to a cease fire.
It respect of SC 1973 that would seem to be Mission Accomplished
But is that a viable status quo, how will Misrata be sustained, could the oil industry resume operations, even if they wanted to ...
Libya hasn't invaded Reunion, Tahiti or any other French possession, Iraq didn't invade Puerto Rico, American Samoa or any other other US possession, but Argentina did invade the Falklands which was and remains a British possession.
Hence I don't think the comparison with Thatcher is valid. Surrender of the Falklands to Argentina was never an option for any British prime minister.
The United Nations did not commit the US to anything Michael. The US could have abstained like China, Russia, India, Brazil (BRIC) & Germany or it could have used its veto.
If the US had abstained then its quite likely that one or both South Africa & Nigeria would have done likewise; then the resolution would have been voted down, or more likely not have put to the vote.
@Burton Hurton - personally I think it all started to go pear shaped in 1648.
@Joe Emersberger - Bosnia UN SC Resolution 781 was a No-Fly zone resolution, neither it nor the related SC resolutions had anything resembling the inclusion of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine that's in SC 1973 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_to_protect). That's the element that's been referred to as the n No-Drive zone clause.
No aircraft were involved in the events in Srebrenica. If the French had sent planes (as I believe they were requested to do so by the Dutch) then its arguable whether they they could have done anything.
Turkey is merely pursuing its own interests, what's wrong with that, is that not what all countries do ?
I'm sure Erdogan would rather Turkey not be a member of NATO, along with the vast majority of Turks. It is only the vanity of Istanbul elites and the military who prevent him from leaving. Eventually the military will see the advantages of Turkey being an independent sovereign state.
The worst thing Turkey could do is to join the EU. The only EU citizens who want Turkey as a member are the chattering classes & US poodles. Why would Turkey give up that much sovereignty to be ruled by a bunch of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. The only Turks who would benefit would be the Istanbul elites, that's why they crave for it.
Turkey can be of far more "use" to everyone as an independent, quasi-neutral sovereign state. It doesn't have to be a full member of institutions, with the EU it could have a wide ranging FTA, with NATO it could have an inter-operability arrangement like Australia has.
If Turkey can break free of the grandiose vanities of Attaturk, then it can achieve the advantages available from its location, having a foot in all camps, a finger in every pie.
Then only, perhaps, can the people of Turkey look back into history and offer true regrets for their past.
UN resolution states - Authorizes Member States ... to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory
That is the provision that is being referred to as the "No Drive" provision.
Iraq NFZ operations
US losses : 2 Blackhawk helicopters to friendly fire and 1 unmanned Predator drone. UK & France : no losses
Iraqi losses : 1 MiG-25 Foxbat, 1 MiG-23 Flogger, 2 Su-22 Fitters. Air defence assets were taken out as & when they fired on allied aircraft - there was no preliminary bombing like Gates has been banging on about.
I did notice Clinton in Tahrir Square. I wonder if she'll claim at some time in the future, that she was also there on February 11, or that she was shot at in Tahrir.
I assume Qaddafi was arming the Palestinians (PLO ?) who were fighting Amal. If so, can we assume that Qaddafi killed Mousa al-Sadr at Arafat's bidding?
The abstention of Russia and China was to be expected, because of their doctrine of non-interference. Thankfully they didn't use their veto votes.
But I don't understand the German abstention. Do they have the same doctrine of non-interference as the Russians and Chinese. No one would notice if they didn't participate in the UN-SC mandated no-fly, no-drive zone operation. I can't help recalling that the Germans (and the French) blocked NATO taking any action to stop the violence in Balkans in 1990's.
Perhaps Germany should quit NATO. The current doctrines of the two seems to be quite the opposite of one another. I am not saying that NATO's doctrine is good and Germany's is bad, just that they are so totally different. I just can't see how Germany can, in all conscience, remain a member of NATO.
I hope its just a coincidence that:
a) In 2003 an SDP/Green (left wing) German government opposed the invasion of Iraq, when the US had a Republican (right wing) President;
b) In 2011 a CDU/CSU/FDP (right wing) German government opposes UN SC mandated miltary action against Libya, when the US has a Democrat (left wing) President.
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With some logistical and intelligence support from NATO (i.e. the US), the combined forces of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan etc should be capable of overwhelming whatever Libyan forces continue to be loyal to Qaddafi - assuming there are any.
And wouldn't this engender within the Arab people a sense of pride. For the first time in a long time they would solve their own problem rather than relying on someone else doing it for them. And wouldn't that be a good thing. Israel might not agree, but perhaps even their influence in waning.
Let's hope there's also some good news coming from Japan soon.
But this time it's not Muslims attacking Orthodox Christians, its Sunni Muslims attacking Shia Muslims; and rather than a fleet of 27 British, Italian, French & American ships watching and standing idly by, its the US 5th fleet (about 20 ships), and maybe a couple of Royal (British & Australian) Navy ships too.
I don't think the House of Khalifa & the House of Saud could do what Attaturk did in Smyrna, but ....
Eventually the Allied ships did act to rescue people, but it was too late for too many.
========================
If the USA did not pay the "blood money" to get Raymond Davis out of Pakistan, then who did. Maybe its was King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa or King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud.
"Hello Mr President. If you green light our use of force against the Bahraini Shia, then we'll get your boy out of Pakistan." ..... "Thank you Mr President, you'll have your boy back tomorrow."
There are reports the Qaddafi has taken enough of Ajdabiya to enable blocking the road to Benghazi. The people & fighters are having to flee to Tripoli
I think most experts predicted that the Qaddafi forces would take the Tripoli road so they could encircle Benghazi.
Qaddafi can always be relied upon to not do what he's expected to do, he's a real Desert Fox.
@Sari Reznik - One reason why Obama got elected was because he's not a regime changing neo-con. So we're stuck with the "better the devil you know ...." line from the Kissinger playbook.
@Giorgio Damiani - Sarkozy & Cameron, are grand standing; Sarkozy wants to make up for the fact that his former ministers were schmoozing with Mubarak & Abidine Ben Ali's pals as their regimes were falling; Cameron because he's thinks he's the Heir to Blair (or Higher than Bliar). They won't do nothing without the US.
"... Harakat al-Shabaab ... leaders must make decisions about ... the type of relationship it wishes to have with the subject population"
And with it's near neighbours, maybe ?
It would be good to also get an update on what's happening in Puntland and Somalialand. Including some opinion on whether their independence should be recognised.
And on the relationships of the people/authorities of Puntland and Somalialand with the TFG and al-Shabaab. And where the piracy activities fit. The media always talks about Somalia & pirates, but I've read that they mainly operate out of Puntland.
Somalialand media is reporting that an al-Shabab linked group assassinated a Judge yesterday and a police chief last week.
I just heard a report on ABC radio in Australia that a Libyan Army unit that recently defected to the opposition forces have retaken Brega. As yet no link available.
Germany has a higher per capita carbon footprint than Japan.
Germany imports about 40mkw/hr/annum of electricity from France. We all know how France generates most of its power, and it ain't wind or solar. There are no realistic scenarios for Japan to import electricity from its neighbours.
There is no evidence that the EU Cap & Trade system (the only one of note that actually exists) will reduce CO2 emissions, however there is evidence that polluting industries, bankers and lawyers are getting rich from the scheme. Nor is there evidence that direct Carbon Tax reduce carbon emissions.
The only "benefit" of Australia reducing its emissions, even by 50%, will be to make some people feel good. It will make not one iota of difference to the overall emissions nor to the rate of change in the climate. The argument "that if we don't set an example, then China & India wont act on Climate Change" is as fallacious as saying "climate change isn't happening". Countries act in their own best interests, they certainly don't take any notice of what a small country like Australia might do or say. The notion "we always punch above our weight", that's often used by Australians (and Brit's), is also specious, it too only serves to make some people feel good.
Any money Australia collects from carbon taxes or cap & trade schemes will have to spent compensating people, aluminium smelters etc for higher prices. And Australia will still be shipping more and more untaxed coal to China, Japan, Korea, India, the EU etc. If Australia were to put a tax on it's coal exports, then Indonesia, Russia, Columbia, South Africa, USA would be laughing all the way to the bank.
Australia is a developed country, it emits a less than 1.5% of world CO2 emissions. It would contribute far more to reducing the impact of climate change if it focused its efforts, its attention and its available funds on the development of low cost CO2 emission free base load electricity generation. By low cost I mean lower than existing CO2 emitting based technologies. India & China etc would be queuing at Australia's door to get their hands on such technologies, not because of climate change, but because its cheaper. Other countries such as Canada should do likewise.
The authorities (politicians and senior public servants) change their story in line with the information they get from the people managing the situation on the ground.
It's similar in that respect to a wild-fires, flood, hurricanes or other industrial accidents. They are all very dynamic situations full of the unexpected.
In 2009, 173 people were killed by a wild fire in Australia. An enquiry revealed that many (most) of those deaths could have been prevented if there had been better management of information between the people on the ground and the the people supposedly in control. The controllers seemed to be reluctant to disclose information that they might have to later retract or change.
When authorities change the information they're providing, even when it's because the real situation has changed, then they are subject to media criticism. Consequently they tend to keep quiet. I think Japanese authorities are doing a pretty good job, this is a very complex, very dynamic issue, its the media that's not doing a good job.
Christiane - German political parties & groups have a record of receiving funds from dubious sources, such as the USSR funding of the Red Army Faction, the funding scandal of Chancellor Kohl. But, Germany's not alone in that respect.
This issue has nothing to do with Iraq, and nor did its invasion or Fischer's opposition have anything to his resignation. Fischer was not alone in opposing it's invasion, most (all) German political parties were opposed.
My memory is that Fischer resigned after Bettina Rohl's revelations of Fischer's membership of extreme left wing groups in the 1960s & '70s. This included his support for the Baader-Meinhoff gang who murdered 34 people.
I wonder if Russia doesn't play a hand in Germany's anti-nuclear stance, when Chancellor Schroeder lost office, he got a nice new job - at Gazprom, the Russian state owned oil and gas conglomerate !
Interestingly hydro-electric power generation has killed more people than nuclear power generation. In 1975, the Banqiao hydroelectric dam in China collapsed during a typhoon, which caused several other dams downstream to collapse. The dam collapes killed 26,000 people. Another 145,000 deaths were caused indirectly due to disease and famine created by the disaster. The Banqiao dam collapse was one of the greatest man-made disasters in human history. This was the worst hydro accident, but not the only one.
Portugal has ~11m people, it has a very small manufacturing segment, 1 VW plant. It is a near contiguous area on a continental mass, its a member of the worlds largest free trade area, in arguably the most peaceful region on the planet.
Japan has ~130m people, it is the worlds third largest manufacturer, after the US & China. It is an island nation, with no regional institutions like the EU, and its situated in the second most dangerous region on the planet, from a long term perspective perhaps the most dangerous. When was the last time any of Germany's or Portugal's neighbours conducted a nuclear bomb test? Never. When was the last time one of their neighbours fired a long range missile over their territorial waters? Never.
The per capita energy consumption figures in Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (TOE) are - Portugal 2.36, Japan 4.02, Germany 4.03 (World Bank 2007).
It may be valid to compare Japan to Germany, but not to Portugal - the only thing they have in common is fishing. Japan must import, via the sea, most of its energy as raw fuel - nuclear, coal, gas, oil. It doesn't have the benefit of being a member of a continental economic union. It doesn't have the benefit of being plugged into direct pipelines from gas producers. It can't import electricity from its neighbours; in 2006 Germany imported 49.1 kw/hr of electricity, mainly from France which generates 80% of its power from guess what - nuclear.
Who put the first viable car with a hybrid engine on the road - Toyota, Who builds the most fuel efficient marine diesel engines - Hitachi & Mitsubishi ...
Let's look at per capita CO2 emissions - in metric tonnes per capita - Portugal 4.4, Japan 9.4, Germany 9.6
Japan needs a nuclear power industry so it can quickly become a nuclear armed state. It probably already has the components in a ready to assemble state.
The item regarding solar grid parity is an opinion from one person who works for a company with a vested interest, I can't find any modelling for his opinion.
Based on these 2 para's in that report, it seems like Syria, Algeria and Mauritania voted No.
Whatever the truth, it wasn't unanimous.
"After putting the resolution to the vote, Ambassador Ahmad stated that Syria is not part of this resolution, as it rejects all forms of foreign intervention in Libya's affairs out of its keenness on Libya's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence."
"Following the announcement of the Syrian stance, Algeria's Foreign Minister and head of the Mauritanian delegation asked for their countries' stances to be registered against the content of the resolution because it has not addressed the remarks and sources of concern expressed by the delegations of Algeria and Mauritania at the first session."
@Hquain "Don’t the members of the Arab League themselves have sufficient forces of the right kind to do something useful on their own hook?
I'm sure they do mate. And I'm sure they could if a) they wanted to and b) if they were allowed to
I have the suspicion that US/NATO would rather they didn't do something off their own hook. If they did that then the raison d'etre of NATO would be blown out of the water.
The idea of everyone policing their own neighbourhood is an anathema to NATO, just think of all the high-pay jobs that would disappear in Brussels.
I never imagined that the Arab League would be be able to reach any sort of a consensus on this. They're to be congratulated. Perhaps the fact that EU failed to do so, gave the Arabs the impetus to out do the EU.
But will the Arabs actually participate in any overt military action, I doubt it, but maybe I'll be wrong on that too.
Personally I don't think the NFZ matters much, territory is won and lost on the ground, not in the air. The Arabs are smart enough know this too.
But nothing is going to happen without a UN-SC resolution.
The Arabs have leverage over China - oil. Will they use it to force China to vote yes to a UN resolution sanctioning military action - that's the next question.
But neither the Arabs, nor anyone else seems to have much leverage over Russia. Putin will want a lot more than visa-less travel with the US to sign up to a robust UN-SC resolution. Japan is going to need a lot of gas & oil from Russia whilst its nukes are out of action.
Long way to go yet.
Meanwhile Qaddafi continues the attacks on Misrata and Brega.
BBC ? James, I assume you mean the Bolshevik Bunkum Contrariat, or is there another one, if so pray tell where we can find it.
On Friday they reported Australia would be hit by the tsunami. Maybe don't they have a map, there's all of the Philippines, Borneo, Indonesia and a thumping great island called New Guinea between Japan & Australia. They just didn't bother to go the Aussie Met Bureau website.
The once excellent BBC-World Service is not even a mere shadow of its former self, and that's not just because of recent cuts. It's been going down hill since it found a market for it's output in the US, and decided to target a US audience. I'm sorry, but that means its been dumbing down its output for years. It should change its name to the TABC - Trans Atlantic Broadcasting Corporation.
The BBC started to go pear shaped in 2003 when Lyse Doucet was favored over Kate Adie to report on the 2003 Iraq invasion. Doucet set up shop in one of the camps on the Iraq/Jordan border, I can still recall her bemoaning the fact that the Iraqi's were not fleeing across the border in fear of the US forces. Adie would have been in Baghdad waiting for the Marines to offer them a cup of tea.
As I recall when the UN mandated NFZ was in operation over southern the Iraqi defence systems were not bombed unless they fired at US/UK planes. On the odd occasion they did launch a missile, the planes were able to take evasive action, before destroying the missile launch sites. I don't recall any US/UK planes being hit - but I may be wrong.
Likewise with Bosnia, I don't think the Serbs even bothered trying to use their air defence systems. Their air force was actually superfluous to their needs.
One of the few times (maybe the only time) that air power gained and held territory was when the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Otherwise it can only weaken the enemy, if you have stronger ground forces then air power is nice to have, but not essential.
Also NFZ's are not as effective in keeping helicopters on the ground as they are at keeping regular fighter/bombers on the ground.
Gate's is playing to crowd who don't want the US involved in yet another middle east war. Can't say that I blame them, Lebanon 1983, Somalia 1993 .... ad-infinitum.
I wonder if Peter King and other US politicians who supported the IRA were/are aware that the IRA not only has links with Libya, but also with North Korea and Cuba ==>> http://indiamond6.ulib.iupui.edu:81/pyongyang.html.
In the Korean War 33,686 US troops were killed in battle, 2,830 died from non-battle causes (mainly disease and hypothermia) and there are 8,176 missing in action. Total deaths 44,692.
No need to send King to Britain. King and planty of others gave finacial support to an organisation that gave comfort to countries that are directly responsible for the deaths of thousands and thousands of Americans, troops and civilians.
At least Nixon was consistent, he disliked, distrusted everyone who didn't have gilt edged WASP credentials. Whereas the likes of King, and not a few others, on both sides of the aisle, are as fickle as roomful of paper dolls.
Then why does Ireland import a disproportionate amount of its oil from Qaddifi's Libya, proportionately more than any other country ==>> http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/libyan_oil. You'd think it would get most of its oil from say Norway, which shares Ireland's alleged neutrality.
The only reason that comes to my mind is in gratitude for Libya's supply of weapons, Cemtex etc to the IRA. Unlike Italy, Ireland has no historical links to Libya.
And why did Qaddaffi supply the weapons to the IRA. Partly because of the left wing ideology he shares with the IRA's political wing Sinn Fein, but mainly for the money. And where did the IRA get the money. Mainly from Peter King's pals in New York City & Ted Kennedy's in Boston of course. And what did Qaddafi do with money he made from sales of weapons to the IRA, Amongst other things he bombed a Pan Am plane over Lockerbie, that's what he did with it.
The existing UN-SC resolutions have painted Muammar Qaddafi into a corner, at 68 he's got nothing to lose, so he'll just set about crushing the "rebels".
His air force doesn't really matter. No fly zones didn't stop Mladich shelling Sarejevo, setting up rape camps, marching into Srebrenica to murder 8,000. Nor did they stop Hussein persecuting the Shia in Southern Iraq. Likewise they won't stop Qaddafi eventually marching into Ben Ghazi.
The NFZ over northern Iraq did help protect the Kurds, but the Kurds had a viable fighting force (the Pashmurga) that could be clandestinely armed, trained and otherwise supported; not unlike the KLA in Kosovo. I've not seen any evidence that the Eastern Libyans are anywhere near as well organised.
I've seen reports that the KLA have sent people to fight for Qaddafi, presumably in gratitude for the help he gave them in their struggle for independence. Ireland buys most of its oil from Libya, presumably in gratitude for Libya's supply of weapons and explosives to the IRA. He's pretty good at calling in his debts.
I'm more inclined to agree with Ttitakjang's real-politik, than with Dr. David C. Mace's fantasy.
If Qaddifi succeeds in crushing the rebellion, then Presidents, Bouteflika, Assad, Saleh etc; and Kings Mohammed VI, Abdullah II, Hamad Al Khalifa etc will be privately jumping for joy. I wouldn't be surprised to find out some time in the future, that they did all they could to break the UN sanctions against Qaddafi.
"threatening to cut off their Marshall Plan money."
1. Britain received about $3.3bn from the Marshall Plan. But over the next 50 years Britain repaid its Lend Lease debts to the US and Canada. The total amounts repaid were US $7.5bn, and Canada $2bn.
2. The disbursement of funds from the Marshall ended in 1952.
"In contrast, the pan-Arab press outside Libya is extremely critical of the idea of Western intervention in Libya, even where it is virulently anti-Qaddafi."
Perhaps the reason the other Arab nations don't support a no-fly zone is because it would set a precedent that might be applied to them if they wanted to bomb their own citizens.
"likened by the Saudi newspaper al-Iqtisadiya [The Economy] to Israel’s routine use of bombing against the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip. This comparison seems to me extraordinary and a sign of how unpopular Qaddafi is among Arab intellectuals and in the Arab public"
Or is it that the Saudi regime will say anything so as to ensure that they continue to enjoy unlimited support from Washington.
I would think that a NATO naval exercise, including a couple of carriers, conducted off the coast of Libya might deter the Colonel's fly boys from flying.
I's the sort of thing that's often done off the coasts of Nth Korea, China & Iran, without any UN resolution, so why not off the coast of Libya.
I heard a BBC news report that claims that Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq continues to refer to Hosni Mubarak and "The President". I can't help feeling that he's just taking a furlough in Sharm-el-Sheikh.
I have a recollection that Qaddafi created a militia with recruits from central African states - Chad, Niger, C.A.R, Sudan etc. I think it was as the time he turned his back on the Arab League and focused on the OAU (now known as the African Unity).
Maybe the people that the western media are referring to as "mercenaries" are in fact this militia. Much of the western media seems to think that sub-Saharan Africa is everywhere south of the Mediterranean littoral states.
Aziz, do you really believe that Mr Qaddifi would take a call from Obama, I don't.
The Egyptian military probably had more to do with Mubarak's decision to step down than anything that Obama said or did. The Egyptian military probably told the US military of their plans and they in turn would have told Obama.
I wonder if Gadaffi's intell services might have blamed it on Ibadi Muslims, some of Libya's Berber are Ibadi's. The WSJ may have assumed that the Ibadi was a Shiite sect, or they decided to say that anyway - most of their audience would not know of the Ibadi.
AJ first reported the existence of these files on Aug 26, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/09/2011911884360946.html.
I've not seen mention of "them" blaming Shiites in subsequent AJ reports, but I've only seen a few reports in English - such as this one http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/08/2011831151258728747.html
JUAN, can you make comment on why liberating Sirte is getting more attention then liberating Bani Walid. My understanding is that the latter is the "key" to getting water to Tripoli, without which people may lose confidence in NTC.
Yesterday AJ was reporting NTC no longer suspect Qaddafi's in Sirte. but more likely to be in the interior, Sabha perhaps.
It appears that you don't have to go through Sirte to drive to & fro between Benghazi & Tripoli. There's a road that turns off at As Sultan East of Sirte, goes south of Qasr Abu to link up with coast road west of Sirte at Abugrein.
China has all the money, so they'll simply buy their way back into Libya.
Ban Ki-moon, commissioned a confidential contingency plan, isn't that what he's paid to do. I can't understand why everyone is so "upset" by this report, it's nature is abundantly clear if you read the report and its summary (both available from http://www.innercitypress.com/un1replibya082611.html) It does canvas the potential need for up to 200 unarmed military observers, but it does NOT envisage a Peacekeeping force, a'la East Timor, or Lebanon/Israel - more like the OSCE observers in Georgia.
"Cambodia suffered far more intensely (a sixth of the population genocided) and for decades rather than months",
Most sources (including the Yale Genocide Documentation Centre) have the Cambodian genocide taking place between 1975 (Year Zero) and 1979 when the Vietnamese toppled the Khmer Rouge regime. So the Cambodian genocide happened over 4 years, not decades. After Vietnam's intervention the Soviet backed People's Republic of Kampuchea was created, it wasn't pretty, but it didn't commit genocide. The UNTAC mission went to Cambodia in 1992, shortly after the demise of the Soviet Union.
"One doesn’t remember outsiders supplying such personnel in ... France in 1789."
Perhaps if outsider's had intervened, then the 1793/94 "Reign of Terror" may have been averted, sparing the lives of tens of thousands of French men, women & children. Perhaps even the killing of millions in Napoleon's wars might not have happened. I don't wish the events of post revolutionary France on the Libyan people, nor on their neighbours.
of which Safia Qaddafi is a member
Algerian Foreign Ministry have made a statement that Safia Gaddafi, sons Hannibal and Mohammed, and daughter Aisha have entered Algeria - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14709896
"Free Libya fighters coming from the west are stalled and decline to return fire"
Paul Wood (BBC) is embedded with TNC forces approaching Sirte from the east. On BBC World Service radio he's reporting exchanges of rocket fire, the distinctive sound of Katyusha multiple rocket launchers can be heard in his reports. He's also reporting there may be a ceasefire over the period Eid.
Fear not Charley James - Libya has an Ahmed Chalibi, the ex Qaddafi general Khalifa Belqasim Haftar. http://www.businessinsider.com/the-cias-man-in-libya-2011-4
Be interesting to see how he gets gets along with the ex LIFG/al-Qaeda guy, Abdelhain Belhadj - who's reported to be the "Military Governor of Tripoli", http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2011/08/22/gaddafi-under-siege-two-cia-backed-groups-al-qaeda-linked-lifg-top-power-stakes
What's needed are people who can write & speak with the same clarity that Rachel Carson & Gene Likens did in the 60's.
Climate Change Yea-Sayers most often remind me of pentecostal preachers, Apple fan-boys & Microsoft evangelists. Seems I'm just expected to believe them - well I don't take heed of the God-botherers, Job's fan-boys or Gate's evangelicals either.
BTW I'm neither uneducated, nor poor, but I am a bicycle riding conservative vegetarian who doesn't own a car.
Here's another finding that they need to factor into the climate model malaise http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/Home/Archive/Cern_study_gives_insight_into_cloud_formation.html?cid=30994792
@Asad - its interesting isn't it, the only US Administration that ever sided with the Shia was the one with a neo-con center - Wolfowitz, Perle, Rumsfeld and Cheney.
The run-of-the-mill Democan & Republicrat Administrations always side with the Sunni.
There is something that a "friendly" Syria can do for Iraq, provide an alternative route to the sea for Iraq's oil & gas, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-16/iraq-syria-agree-to-build-cross-border-oil-gas-pipelines-official-says.html.
If/when the Assad regime falls it will inevitably be replaced by a Sunni controlled government. Iraq will then be surrounded on three sides by Sunni governments; Saudi Arabia & Kuwait to the south, Jordan & Syria to the west and Turkey to the north.
The new Syrian government will be pressured by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Turkey to renege on the pipeline deal, so that the SAKT alliance can maintain the chokehold it already has on Iraq's oil/gas exports. This would probably be supported by the US.
The enmity between the Sunni & Shia Arabs seems to have two dimensions. Firstly the differences in religious doctrine, dogma and jurisprudence, secondly the race based enmity between Arabs and Persians. Consequently Sunni Arabs regard Shia Arabs as not only as religious apostates, but also as racial traitors.
@Lloyd - I'll venture an answer to your question re Turkey.
Turkey is being Obama-like, acting like they're the only grown up in the room, avoiding extreme positions etc. Its foreign minister did go to Damascus where he is reported to have "read the riot act" to Assad, and since Assad failed to heed his advice, Turkey has said he must go.
So why don't they "read the riot act" to Iran? Turkey knows Iran would be extremely unlikely to listen and could retaliate by covertly interfering in Turkey's own internal affairs, as it did in the days of the Ottoman Empire.
The Shia suffered decades of oppression from Saddam Hussein, millions of Iraqi Arab Shia were given refuge in Iran, including al-Maliki, far fewer were given refuge in other Arab states.
The majority if Iraqi Arab's are Shia, we've seen what Sunni Arab's think of Shia Arabs in Bahrain.
No matter what the US did or didn't do after the 2003 invasion, it was inevitable that a democratically elected government in Iraq would be dominated by the Shia and be Iran friendly. And I doubt anything would have been different if the Elder Bush had toppled Saddam in '91.
I'm not so sure that an "overbearing military" is necessarily a bad thing. Both Turkey & Indonesia have a powerful military thatwere "overbearing", however the transfer power from the military to democratically elected civilian authorities is a happening in both countries. They're both stable countries with increasing regional influence and they both have growing economies.
Indonesia elected a moderate Islamic scholar as President, then they elected a secular female, then they elected a pragmatic former general, twice. Be interesting to see who they elect next. Indonesia has the world largest Muslim population - 190+ million.
In 1974 Portugal was already in NATO and it had the EU beckoning, same for Spain in '75. Libya can only look forward to continued membership of the UN, Arab League and the African Union.
I don't think there's much value in drawing parallels between what's happening in the Arab world today to what happened in Europe in the 1970-90's - tempting as it is to compare Carnations & Jasmine.
"2 ... The presence of Western troops in Muslim lands creates terrorism" - there haven't been any Western troops in Indonesia (1945), Pakistan (1947), Morocco (1956), Turkey (1923), since they became independent (dates indicated). Yet each of them have had acts of Islamic terrorism within the last decade. This is an "excuse" given by Islamic extremists, it should be given no credence by repeating it.
"6 Consult with Norway about how it is possible for an oil state to remain a democracy." - the operative word here is "remain". Libya is not and never has been a democracy, whereas Norway's democracy has developed organically since it broke away from Sweden in 1814. Norway is NOT an "oil state", it already had a fairly good & diverse economy when it found its oil/gas in the 1960's, and it remains so today. Some of its other industries are timber, hydro, fishing (2nd largest exporter), weapons (6th largest exporter) shipping (6th largest), aluminium (10th largest), high grade specialty steels and pure silicon for the semiconductor industry. Norway puts much of its oil revenues into sovereign wealth funds, Libya has such a fund called the Gaddafi Fund, which has made some bad investments. What Libya should do is to change the fund name and get some honest, competent funds managers - try Singapore.
"7 Use Alaska dividend system & 8 diversify the economy", surely these are contradictory. The "Alaskan dividend" system seems to be a variant of the "Saudi Free Money" system - they don't work, they do harm, they produce layabouts and terrorists of Islamic & Tea-Party kind. The first thing a state should do for its able bodied & minded people is to provide them with the dignity of productive employment and business opportunities, not state handouts.
Libya should use Singapore as an economic model for its development. The only resources Singapore has is people and location, Libya has a similar number of people and its location isn't too bad, the oil should be seen as a bonus. Since independence in 1965 SNG has grown on average by about 9% per annum, it's per capita GDP(PPP) is now $62K (USA is $47K), its income distribution ratios are similar to USA and it has the worlds 5th largest sovereign wealth fund, second only to China for non commodity based economies. There's plenty to criticize about Singapore on the HR & democracy fronts, but having lived in Doha and Singapore I know which is better.
"9. Recognize Berber as a national language." As well the Berber language, I hope they also recognize the rights of minorities such as the Ibadhi's whose jurisprudence differs from the Sunni majority. I've see a version of the constitution document referenced by Brian W that has a different Article 1, no mention of sharia; so I suspect there are different versions for different audiences - now I can't find the sans-sharia version.
that grist link doesn't want to work, so here's another one http://theenergycollective.com/nathan-wilson/58791/20mw-gemasolar-plant-elegant-pricey
@Nichol - I suspect Juan is thinking about 24x7 base load solar power for export, like this one in Spain (there are smaller units in Nevada I think) http://www.grist.org/solar-power/2011-07-05-groundbreaking-solar-plant-in-spain-generates-24-hours-of-power.
The Europeans would be fools to become dependent on a single supplier as they are with Russian Natural Gas.
There's a 350 mile undersea HDVC link from Norway to the Netherlands, which is a similar distance as Tripoli-Messina with possibility of a drop off in Malta.
If desertec becomes a reality then they should have units in Algeria as well as Morocco, Tunisia (which are even closer) and Libya. Maybe they could co-site the Libyan generators with the Green Circles http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4998
The Europeans would be fools to become dependent on a single supplier as they are with Russian Natural Gas.
The Europeans have a 350 mile undersea HDVC link from Norway to the Netherlands, which is a similar distance as Tripoli-Messina with possibility of a drop off in Malta.
If desertec becomes a reality then they should have units in Algeria as well as Morocco, Tunisia (which are even closer) and Libya. Maybe they could co-site the Libyan generators with the Green Circles http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=4998
Because the victims were Libyans, and the perpetrators were Libyans it surely follows that any war crimes trials must be carried out by Libyans in Libya.
Perhaps Turkey, as the former colonial power in Libya, is best placed to help Libya make the transition to democracy.
some facts regarding current oil prices, current spot prices in $US / barrel on 3 mid quality products are
West Texas Crude - $85
Brent Crude - $109
Tapis Crude - $118
That's a spread of nearly 40%, the spread across the whole range would probably be more like 80%.
@Purple Library Guy writes "NATO has a track record of installing nasty satraps and ruining countries where their militaries get involved"
Rubbish, NATO has helped create more democracies than the combined efforts of the UN, AU, ASEAN, AL, OSA, GCC etc etc. Examples - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Serbia ...
I can't think of a single satrap that has been installed by NATO, you can't blame nor can you credit the institution for the actions of its individual member states - such as the US in Chile or Iraq, the UK in Sierra Leone or France in Cote d'Ivoire.
Sure these democracies are not perfect - but as Churchill said "... democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."
@Mazlum - in the link you provided to the LCRF, Article 1, has no mention of Sharia Law, nor indeed does any other article.
Sounds too inept and implausible even for US intelligence psy-ops. Sounds more like something that Qaddafi might be putting about whilst his sons sneak off to Zim or SA. He'll stay there and put himself in the way of a NATO bomb,
Might that have been Andrew Jackson ?
Good summary Juan, only thing I disagree with is referring to Iraq as a "wounded civilisation". Whilst many civilisations have risen & fallen in the land of the two rivers, they weren't nation states as we know them, and none of them held sway from Umm Qsar to Zakho.
The Turks ruled the territory as three distinct divisions (vilayets) based on Basra, Baghdad & Mosul. The French & the Brits that shoehorned them into a single entity after WW1; a'la Czechoslovakia & Yugoslavia and we know what's happened to them. The same thing will probably happen to Iraq - eventually.
Syria will become another Lebanon, dysfunctional and racked with sectarian conflict, that's why Turkey is being circumspect. Easy for Abdullah when he's 1500k and a couple of countries away from Damascus.
We should always remember that much of the ME was ruled by the Ottoman Empire for centuries. So the Turks know a lot more about the region and the various communities than does the "West".
The Western elites should stop trying to shoehorn Turkey into the EU, it doesn't belong there, its not wanted there and I suspect that most Turks don't want to be there. Turkey can play a far more constructive role within the ME region as a fully independent sovereign nation than as a member of a "Grande (and rapidly failing) Experimentieren".
According this recent [b]Pew Research[/b] the majority of US citizens would appear to have some sympathy for Ron Paul's position.
"which is one reason Warren Hastings ended up being tried AND ACQUITTED."
His prosecutors, Edmund Burke, Charles Fox & Richard Sheridan, were however successful in bankrupting Hastings, All three of them were a) Whigs (conservatives), b) Irish and c) supporters the American Revolution.
LOL - as though Assad, who's facing an existentialist threat, will take any heed of a US President who's become a lame duck after only 30 months in office.
Surely there's an inconsistency here.
First you say you don't think partition would be stable, and you think (hope) that Victory for Rebels or a Coup in Tripoli is most likely outcome.
Then you conclude by saying that the Balkans air interventions were slow, difficult & frustrating, but with the implication that they will bring about one of the two likely (hoped for) solutions.
But partition was precisely the result that was bought about by the respective NATO air campaigns in both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.
Milosevich was removed from power by the people of Serbia, not by NATO's bombs. The political allies of Karadich are running Republika Srpska today.
Kosovo is a kleptocracy run by drug pedlars and pimps, who don't control all their territory. The Federation of B&H is united in name only, its effectively partitioned into Croat & Bosniak cantons.
Both Kosovo and the B&H Federation continue to need foreign military stabilisation forces to keep them from descending once again into murder & mayhem. There's no chance of NATO or the EU committing forces to a similar operation in Libya. The African Union has a poor record at "peace making/keeping" - eg DRC, Côte d'Ivoire, Somalia, Liberia etc. The Arab League has never shown any inclination to solve its own problems.
Like you I hope for the best - Tripoli Coup & Reconciliation. But I expect the worst - Partition and Protracted Conflict - a'la what's happening in Sudan & Yemen.
An SC 1973 (Libya no-fly zone) style resolution wouldn't have a snowflake in hell's chance of getting up. South Africa & Lebanon would abstain for sure and you can't pass a resolution with 8 yes votes & 7 abstentions.
Condemnatory SC resolutions aren't worth the paper they're written on, SC resolutions imposing sanctions aren't much better, ICC warrants push people into a corner or are ignored etc etc.
Here is an interview by US diplomat in Damascus last weekend, pay attention to his answer on the question "why Libya & not Syria" http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00j30wd#p00jhz6s
He seems to imply that the Syrian people want something different to the Libyan people - oh really!!!
The failure of SC1973 to bring a swift resolution to the Libyan situation (as was promised) has given Assad the green light to do what he's doing.
Geography and History actually matter
Ankara is 425m from Damascus, Turkey & Syria share a 510m land border and Syria was an Ottoman Turk colony between 1516 and 1920.
And Turkey has a 330m border with Syria's friend and ally Iran.
Its easy to pontificate when you're an ocean and 9500km distant with little historical connection. Not to mention that Clintoon represents the worlds biggest economy that's armed to the teeth with everything from M16's to nuclear tipped ICBM's.
But you don't get many bangs for your euro in NL - ie low expenditure on defence - US 4.7%, NL 1.5% of GDP. Put another way US is $2141/person, NL is $759/person.
I think its all taxes - federal, state, local
Wikipedia has 3 sources (Heritage, OECD, Eurostat) and indicates that its all taxes - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_as_percentage_of_GDP
@Mazlum- Australia has yet to legislate a Carbon Tax, if/when it does then it will commence in 2012, and it will be replaced by an emissions trading scheme (cap & trade) by 2018. It will not reduce Australia's CO2 emissions, at best it will limit their growth
But the reality is that Australia's Great Carbon Tax Swindle is almost certain to be repealed after the next election in 2013, when the incumbents are odds-on to lose government.
Any "fee & dividend" scheme must offer protection to trade exposed industries as well as individuals. Unless you want more unemployment when those industries move offshore.
@ Richard F. Miller - if you think ethnic, cultural & linguistic diversity are a factor in high murder rates then you need to explain why murder rates in Australia are significantly lower than the USA.
About 20% of Australia's population is foreign born, and the murder rate is 1.3 per 100,000. About 13% of the USA population are foreign born and the murder rate is 5.0 per 100,000.
The two counties have other similarities, both are predominantly English speaking, both are highly developed, both have federal political structures.
Points of difference include, no slavery, no wars of independence or civil, and strong gun laws. The latter were strengthened in the 1990's by the conservative Prime Minister John Howard, who George W Bush referred to as a "Man of Steel".
Meanwhile in Spain & Turkey Anonymous members are being arrested
Spain http://www.mobiledia.com/news/93552.html
Turkey http://www.mobiledia.com/news/93606.html
If the Koch Brothers are buying it , then who's selling it.
Seems to me that the American Democracy has been a privately owned enterprise for many decades, maybe forever, irrespective of who's occupying the White House or controlling Congress.
Most of the other so called democracies aren't much better.
Where have all the benevolent dictators gone.
8)
@David - Saddam Hussein was a Muslim secular nationalist, Nasser was a Muslim secular ...., Kamal Attaturk was a Muslim secu ...., Yassar Arafat was a Muslim ... Qaddafi is a ....
Thank you Juan - excellent article
Juan, where is the evidence of that pricise transaction.
Whilst the munitions are made in Spain, that doesn't he got them from Spain, e.g. some of his US made transport aircraft (Herc's & Chinooks) were sourced from Italy.
My understanding is that these shells aren't fired by free standing weapons. The weapons are incorporated into combat vehicles & boats, all of which appear to made in the Nordic states.
Some African countries are said to have purchased AMOS equipped combat vehicles systems - e.g Namibia, and Lebanon is also believed to have some. The Malaysians have gunships with the AMOS system installed (Malaysia was a link in the nuclear chain from AQ Khan to Qaddifi). Some of UN forces in in Africa have AMOS equipped armoured vehicles, I wouldn't be surprised if they've not lost some.
The arms market as we all know is a very murky business.
"The problem with having the AU mediate is that the leaders chosen are not viewed by the rebels as honest brokers."
I've no idea which African leaders the rebels would accept as "honest brokers", perhaps you can suggest who they might be.
The AU seems incapable of doing anything much about anything, Côte d'Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Dafur, Somalia, the Lords Resistance Army etc etc.
It'll probably be up to the Italians & French to sort out, with the assistance of Turks and Saudis. The Egyptians seem to be inflicted with paralysis, anyway they wouldn't do anything without approval of the US Joint Chiefs.
We would not have the understanding of the ancient Greeks that we do have, were it not for the translation of the original texts by the scholars of the early Abbasid Caliphate in Baghdad. Without the translation & preservation of the gospels in their original Greek by the Arabs we possibly wouldn't be celebrating the 400th anniversary of the King James Bible in 2011.
Are we to call the Baghdadi scholars of the Greeks and their texts Occidentalists, and what of their study & translation of Indian & Persian texts, doesn't that make them Orientalists too.
The famed Baghdad museum probably wouldn't have existed to be looted in 2003 if it weren't for the Orientalist Gertrude Bell.
It would be preferable to have the Arabs themselves translating "modern" western texts, rather than relying on westerners doing it for them. But given we have to fight their wars for them, I guess its not asking much to translate our texts for them too.
Keep up the good work Juan - how about doing Hobbes & Locke, and Montaigne wouldn't hurt - and Walt Whitman.
Meanwhile one of the countries "renowned" for its use of solar power is extending the life of its coal powered power stations - http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/germany-falls-back-on-coal
The Zaywa report says Jordan has flown humanitarian supplies into Benghazi, it doesn't say anything about about airlifts to Misrata.
"Note that the transitional government in Benghazi has in contrast offered Qaddafi a ceasefire if he will cease attacking his people."
My understanding is that the rebels offer had other conditionalities attached. These included the withdrawal of all security forces from all population centres and that Gaddafi & his sons leave Libya to go into exile. That was more like a demand for Gaddafi's surrender. At the time it was offered the opposition forces were retreating from Sirte & Ras Lanuf in disarray and the government forces were regaining lost territory. To me their offer seemed somewhat disingenuous.
But not much to Libya Janine, just some air transport - 8 Chinooks, 10 Hercules and 2 Huey helicopters - the Chinooks & Huey's were supplied by Italy.
The Soviet Union & latterly the Russians have been the major supplier of weapons to Libya ever since Qaddafi came to power. Every ship in Libya's Navy (of which I believe the rebels have three) was built in the USSR. The tanks that US/UK/FR planes have been bombing were made in the USSR. The anti-aircraft guns the rebels have in the back of their pickup trucks were made in the USSR.
Libya's Air Defence System is documented here, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23841 All the Surface to Air Missile (SAM) systems are from USSR/Russian , Italy is believed to supplied some radar systems to Libya in the early '80's, as did the USSR.
As I understand it, the current military action under the provisions of SC 1973 are being conducted by a "coalition of the willing and able". So there no chain of command from the forces enforcing SC 1973 to the US SC or the UN Gen Sec; Obama as the US CiC hasn't been reporting to Ban-Ki Moon.
When action is being undertaken under that auspices of the UN Peacekeeping Department then there is a chain of command direct to the UN Head of Peacekeeping and then to the UN Sec Gen. Note the post conflict UN mission in Iraq was not a peacekeeping mission, it was under the control of the two Occupying Powers - US & UK.
The participating countries have an obligation under SC 1973 to inform the SC and Gen Sec of actions taken and progress, but they do report to them, neither the SC or the Sec Gen can issue orders to the "coalition forces".
Mazlum said: 03/28/2011 at 9:21 pm
Libya's oil reserves are about the same as Nigeria's, they each have about 30% of the African total reserves http://www.eia.doe.gov/international/reserves.html
For me the issue is not whether the bombing of Libya is right or its wrong, or whether the left, liberals, neo-cons, libertines or trotskyites are in favour or against. For me its a fait-accompli, better to think about what next; rather than what if, if only, if never.
The UN Mandated Forces are systematically destroying the weaponry of the Libyan Government Forces.
The UN Mandated Forces are not supplying weapons to the Libyan Opposition Forces.
I find that interesting, [i]very interesting[/i], why, I ask, would they do that.
Libya's eastern neighbour is Egypt, it has a strong military, a large population (80m), but it hasn't got much revenue generating capacity. Libya will soon have a very weak military, it has a small populations (6m), but it has a lot of revenue generating capacity because of its oil.
You should be able to see where I'm going. Libya in whole or in part will become an Egyptian vassal state. With control of Libya's oil Egypt will become a more powerful state. One which can offer a better vision to the region than that offered by the House of Saud.
I guess I'm an ultra-neo-con 🙂
The US is not expected to act as Globocop, it chooses to do so of its own volition. It self declares that it is the world's indispensible nation, and it does all that it can to make it so. That has been the overarching foreign policy of the USA since the end of WW2 at least, and arguably earlier. I think of it as Empire Building by Stealth.
Thanks for this very thoughtful response. You wrote
But both actions are good for business. Most military aid is in the form of weapons & munitions manufactured by the likes of Chrysler, Honeywell, Lockheed, Boeing etc. Bombs and missiles dropped & fired have to replaced by the likes of General Dynamics, Raytheon, MDBA etc.
I just heard on the radio that Berlusconi and Merkel are engineering a cease fire and an exit strategy for Gaddafi & Sons Inc. The latter would be given sanctuary in Italy (Sardinia perhaps) and/or Germany (maybe Berchtesgaden). From where I assume they can direct terrorist operations, against Britain and France.
I made comment the other day suggesting that the use of the word "allies" to describe those implementing UN-SC 1973 was inappropriate, as it harked back to "Allied Powers" and "Allied Forces" as used in WW1 & WW2 respectively.
If what I just heard is true, then might this a reconstitution of the Axis Powers
I found this Turkish report which hints at what I just heard ===>>> http://www.abhaber.com/haber.php?id=34057
Here is a Google Translation
=================================
Berlusconi Sarkozy: just can not let us out of pure
Gathered in Brussels for crisis EU summit in Libya, then to France sharply criticized Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi, "They (the Allies) wants to leave us out of pure. But we also have ideas about the subject until at least the French. In fact, German Chancellor Angela Merkel bulaşmamakla this business have been hit, "he said.
Berlusconi "This summit, just plenty of prattle and was babbling. I fell silent. But when it comes time to talk. It's too painful to talk, "he said. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi aimed at David Cameron, "that they do not even know what our role in our in Libya. International rights unaware. Initiatives in the news does not bring any results. I still do not think Gaddafi will resist until the end. However, more than expected according to the chair seat to me. To go into exile, but maybe I can convince him, "he said.
Freedom, 27-03-2011 11:01 (GMT)
===========================================
I wonder if "by Professor Cole's old sparring partner Mr Hitchens" you were thinking of Christopher Hitchens, that DM article is by his brother Peter.
I think Christopher is in currently hospital, I doubt that Chris would have targeted Martin Amis in the manner that Peter did at the end of that article; Chris's memoir is testament to his relationship with Martin, which may have something to do with Peter's bitchy comment.
Do we have any reliable evidence for how many people have actually been killed and wounded in Libya since its "troubles" began.
I keep reading and hearing about massacres and genocide, then I read numbers like 16 killed in Misrata & 6 in Zintan.
In the Egyptian Revolution, 365 people were killed & 6,000 were wounded. Yet no one seemed to bat an eyelid, let alone use words like massacre & genocide. As far as I can make out there were probably fewer than a dozen killed in the Tunisian Revolution,
It seems to me that the Libyan "protesters" chose to take up arms rather too quickly. Hence they're now referred to as "rebels", even in the Western Media, whatever happened to "freedom fighters", gone the way of "freedom fries" perhaps.
The Egyptian & Tunisian protesters never took up arms, other than throwing rocks and tear gas canisters back at the security forces.
I suspect that Qaddaffi has enough loot in country to keep this going for quite a long time. He has plenty of friends in the AU who will supply arms and materiel.
Previous post should be reply to the article. Maybe moderator can fix.
US involvement is motivated in part at least by the fact that the French, Brits and Arabs were going to put the resolution forward anyway. The US could have sat on the fence and abstained like the BRIC countries and Germany.
And what would that have said about the US. The US calls itself the "indispensable nation", the core raison d'être of its foreign policy over the last 70 years has been to make that a reality.
AU mission to Libya http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-03/16/c_13782368.htm
Interesting comment from Ugandan press
"But if a revolutionary can be asked to talk to another of his kind whom the world is anxious to see leave power, just what should we expect from the Museveni-Gaddafi talk?
Well, many will be hard-pressed to believe Foreign Affair’s Sam Kuteesa has already divulged enough of the mission when he said 'it is revolutionary to be democratic'."
http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/-/689844/1128986/-/pdjjoh/-/
=======================
Assume the Libyan forces stop attacking Benghazi and retreat to Adjabiya, and the forces attacking Misrata pull back to Tripoli and then Qaddafi declares and sticks to a cease fire.
It respect of SC 1973 that would seem to be Mission Accomplished
But is that a viable status quo, how will Misrata be sustained, could the oil industry resume operations, even if they wanted to ...
Daryoush
Libya hasn't invaded Reunion, Tahiti or any other French possession, Iraq didn't invade Puerto Rico, American Samoa or any other other US possession, but Argentina did invade the Falklands which was and remains a British possession.
Hence I don't think the comparison with Thatcher is valid. Surrender of the Falklands to Argentina was never an option for any British prime minister.
The United Nations did not commit the US to anything Michael. The US could have abstained like China, Russia, India, Brazil (BRIC) & Germany or it could have used its veto.
If the US had abstained then its quite likely that one or both South Africa & Nigeria would have done likewise; then the resolution would have been voted down, or more likely not have put to the vote.
@Burton Hurton - personally I think it all started to go pear shaped in 1648.
@Joe Emersberger - Bosnia UN SC Resolution 781 was a No-Fly zone resolution, neither it nor the related SC resolutions had anything resembling the inclusion of the Responsibility to Protect doctrine that's in SC 1973 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_to_protect). That's the element that's been referred to as the n No-Drive zone clause.
No aircraft were involved in the events in Srebrenica. If the French had sent planes (as I believe they were requested to do so by the Dutch) then its arguable whether they they could have done anything.
Borrow more money from China - they'll accept a lower interest rate if they can get their hands on Libya's oil.
Turkey is merely pursuing its own interests, what's wrong with that, is that not what all countries do ?
I'm sure Erdogan would rather Turkey not be a member of NATO, along with the vast majority of Turks. It is only the vanity of Istanbul elites and the military who prevent him from leaving. Eventually the military will see the advantages of Turkey being an independent sovereign state.
The worst thing Turkey could do is to join the EU. The only EU citizens who want Turkey as a member are the chattering classes & US poodles. Why would Turkey give up that much sovereignty to be ruled by a bunch of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. The only Turks who would benefit would be the Istanbul elites, that's why they crave for it.
Turkey can be of far more "use" to everyone as an independent, quasi-neutral sovereign state. It doesn't have to be a full member of institutions, with the EU it could have a wide ranging FTA, with NATO it could have an inter-operability arrangement like Australia has.
If Turkey can break free of the grandiose vanities of Attaturk, then it can achieve the advantages available from its location, having a foot in all camps, a finger in every pie.
Then only, perhaps, can the people of Turkey look back into history and offer true regrets for their past.
UN resolution states - Authorizes Member States ... to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory
That is the provision that is being referred to as the "No Drive" provision.
Full text of UN SC resolution 1973 is here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12783819
Iraq NFZ operations
US losses : 2 Blackhawk helicopters to friendly fire and 1 unmanned Predator drone. UK & France : no losses
Iraqi losses : 1 MiG-25 Foxbat, 1 MiG-23 Flogger, 2 Su-22 Fitters. Air defence assets were taken out as & when they fired on allied aircraft - there was no preliminary bombing like Gates has been banging on about.
No need Phud, Venezuela & Bolivia are not members of Security Council
Permanent members
* China -
* France +
* Russia -
* United Kingdom +
* United States +
Non-permanent members
* Bosnia and Herzegovina +
* Brazil -
* Colombia +
* Gabon +
* Germany -
* India -
* Lebanon +
* Nigeria +
* Portugal +
* South Africa +
I did notice Clinton in Tahrir Square. I wonder if she'll claim at some time in the future, that she was also there on February 11, or that she was shot at in Tahrir.
Thank you again Juan,
I assume Qaddafi was arming the Palestinians (PLO ?) who were fighting Amal. If so, can we assume that Qaddafi killed Mousa al-Sadr at Arafat's bidding?
The abstention of Russia and China was to be expected, because of their doctrine of non-interference. Thankfully they didn't use their veto votes.
But I don't understand the German abstention. Do they have the same doctrine of non-interference as the Russians and Chinese. No one would notice if they didn't participate in the UN-SC mandated no-fly, no-drive zone operation. I can't help recalling that the Germans (and the French) blocked NATO taking any action to stop the violence in Balkans in 1990's.
Perhaps Germany should quit NATO. The current doctrines of the two seems to be quite the opposite of one another. I am not saying that NATO's doctrine is good and Germany's is bad, just that they are so totally different. I just can't see how Germany can, in all conscience, remain a member of NATO.
I hope its just a coincidence that:
a) In 2003 an SDP/Green (left wing) German government opposed the invasion of Iraq, when the US had a Republican (right wing) President;
b) In 2011 a CDU/CSU/FDP (right wing) German government opposes UN SC mandated miltary action against Libya, when the US has a Democrat (left wing) President.
======
With some logistical and intelligence support from NATO (i.e. the US), the combined forces of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan etc should be capable of overwhelming whatever Libyan forces continue to be loyal to Qaddafi - assuming there are any.
And wouldn't this engender within the Arab people a sense of pride. For the first time in a long time they would solve their own problem rather than relying on someone else doing it for them. And wouldn't that be a good thing. Israel might not agree, but perhaps even their influence in waning.
Let's hope there's also some good news coming from Japan soon.
Brian
As long as the country in question doesn't accept US suzerainty.
The current US Empire often seems to be more like the Ottoman and Mughal Empires than the European Empires.
Good question Daryoush
Bahrain is reminiscent of Smyrna, September 1922.
But this time it's not Muslims attacking Orthodox Christians, its Sunni Muslims attacking Shia Muslims; and rather than a fleet of 27 British, Italian, French & American ships watching and standing idly by, its the US 5th fleet (about 20 ships), and maybe a couple of Royal (British & Australian) Navy ships too.
If you don't know about what happened in Smyrna (now called Izmir) in September 1922 then ===>>> http://www.alcvanamelsvoort.com/smyrna-1922
I don't think the House of Khalifa & the House of Saud could do what Attaturk did in Smyrna, but ....
Eventually the Allied ships did act to rescue people, but it was too late for too many.
========================
If the USA did not pay the "blood money" to get Raymond Davis out of Pakistan, then who did. Maybe its was King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa or King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud.
"Hello Mr President. If you green light our use of force against the Bahraini Shia, then we'll get your boy out of Pakistan." ..... "Thank you Mr President, you'll have your boy back tomorrow."
Interview with Bahraini protester trying to get to Pearl (Lulu) square http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3165820.htm
Interview with Bahraini doctor who cannot get into the Sulmaniya hospital because of the military blockade http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3165831.htm
These interviews should get transcripts within a few hours, but audio is available now
There are reports the Qaddafi has taken enough of Ajdabiya to enable blocking the road to Benghazi. The people & fighters are having to flee to Tripoli
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704662604576202821789052208.html#articleTabs_comments%3D%26articleTabs%3Darticle
I think most experts predicted that the Qaddafi forces would take the Tripoli road so they could encircle Benghazi.
Qaddafi can always be relied upon to not do what he's expected to do, he's a real Desert Fox.
@Sari Reznik - One reason why Obama got elected was because he's not a regime changing neo-con. So we're stuck with the "better the devil you know ...." line from the Kissinger playbook.
@Giorgio Damiani - Sarkozy & Cameron, are grand standing; Sarkozy wants to make up for the fact that his former ministers were schmoozing with Mubarak & Abidine Ben Ali's pals as their regimes were falling; Cameron because he's thinks he's the Heir to Blair (or Higher than Bliar). They won't do nothing without the US.
Re: Suez '56, you forgot the Israeli's.
"Ain't that the truth"
Excellent article, a must read
Thanks
Thanks for this most informative post.
"... Harakat al-Shabaab ... leaders must make decisions about ... the type of relationship it wishes to have with the subject population"
And with it's near neighbours, maybe ?
It would be good to also get an update on what's happening in Puntland and Somalialand. Including some opinion on whether their independence should be recognised.
And on the relationships of the people/authorities of Puntland and Somalialand with the TFG and al-Shabaab. And where the piracy activities fit. The media always talks about Somalia & pirates, but I've read that they mainly operate out of Puntland.
Somalialand media is reporting that an al-Shabab linked group assassinated a Judge yesterday and a police chief last week.
So that's why Gates was there, to green light the invitation by the House of Khalifa to the House of Saud to carry out an invasion Bahrain.
The last time the House of Saud invaded Bahrain was in 1802, on that occasion House of Khalifa asked the Ottomans & Brits for protection.
I'm reminded of Hungary '56, Czechoslovakia 68, and Afghanistan '79.
Yasser, please tell us where pictures and videos posted
I just heard a report on ABC radio in Australia that a Libyan Army unit that recently defected to the opposition forces have retaken Brega. As yet no link available.
VOA is reporting similar http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Butty-Libya-Opposition-Shalluf-14march11-117919179.html
Top six wind generating countries are
United States 36,300
China 33,800
Germany 26,400
Spain 19,500
India 12,100
Fastest growth is happening in China, followed by India.
Germany has a higher per capita carbon footprint than Japan.
Germany imports about 40mkw/hr/annum of electricity from France. We all know how France generates most of its power, and it ain't wind or solar. There are no realistic scenarios for Japan to import electricity from its neighbours.
There is no evidence that the EU Cap & Trade system (the only one of note that actually exists) will reduce CO2 emissions, however there is evidence that polluting industries, bankers and lawyers are getting rich from the scheme. Nor is there evidence that direct Carbon Tax reduce carbon emissions.
The only "benefit" of Australia reducing its emissions, even by 50%, will be to make some people feel good. It will make not one iota of difference to the overall emissions nor to the rate of change in the climate. The argument "that if we don't set an example, then China & India wont act on Climate Change" is as fallacious as saying "climate change isn't happening". Countries act in their own best interests, they certainly don't take any notice of what a small country like Australia might do or say. The notion "we always punch above our weight", that's often used by Australians (and Brit's), is also specious, it too only serves to make some people feel good.
Any money Australia collects from carbon taxes or cap & trade schemes will have to spent compensating people, aluminium smelters etc for higher prices. And Australia will still be shipping more and more untaxed coal to China, Japan, Korea, India, the EU etc. If Australia were to put a tax on it's coal exports, then Indonesia, Russia, Columbia, South Africa, USA would be laughing all the way to the bank.
Australia is a developed country, it emits a less than 1.5% of world CO2 emissions. It would contribute far more to reducing the impact of climate change if it focused its efforts, its attention and its available funds on the development of low cost CO2 emission free base load electricity generation. By low cost I mean lower than existing CO2 emitting based technologies. India & China etc would be queuing at Australia's door to get their hands on such technologies, not because of climate change, but because its cheaper. Other countries such as Canada should do likewise.
The authorities (politicians and senior public servants) change their story in line with the information they get from the people managing the situation on the ground.
It's similar in that respect to a wild-fires, flood, hurricanes or other industrial accidents. They are all very dynamic situations full of the unexpected.
In 2009, 173 people were killed by a wild fire in Australia. An enquiry revealed that many (most) of those deaths could have been prevented if there had been better management of information between the people on the ground and the the people supposedly in control. The controllers seemed to be reluctant to disclose information that they might have to later retract or change.
When authorities change the information they're providing, even when it's because the real situation has changed, then they are subject to media criticism. Consequently they tend to keep quiet. I think Japanese authorities are doing a pretty good job, this is a very complex, very dynamic issue, its the media that's not doing a good job.
This claims to be an explanation of what's happening at Fukushima, it's certainly detailed ==>> http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/
Christiane - German political parties & groups have a record of receiving funds from dubious sources, such as the USSR funding of the Red Army Faction, the funding scandal of Chancellor Kohl. But, Germany's not alone in that respect.
This issue has nothing to do with Iraq, and nor did its invasion or Fischer's opposition have anything to his resignation. Fischer was not alone in opposing it's invasion, most (all) German political parties were opposed.
My memory is that Fischer resigned after Bettina Rohl's revelations of Fischer's membership of extreme left wing groups in the 1960s & '70s. This included his support for the Baader-Meinhoff gang who murdered 34 people.
I forgot this link regarding Russian gas for Japan http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110312/162974787.html
I wonder if Russia doesn't play a hand in Germany's anti-nuclear stance, when Chancellor Schroeder lost office, he got a nice new job - at Gazprom, the Russian state owned oil and gas conglomerate !
Interestingly hydro-electric power generation has killed more people than nuclear power generation. In 1975, the Banqiao hydroelectric dam in China collapsed during a typhoon, which caused several other dams downstream to collapse. The dam collapes killed 26,000 people. Another 145,000 deaths were caused indirectly due to disease and famine created by the disaster. The Banqiao dam collapse was one of the greatest man-made disasters in human history. This was the worst hydro accident, but not the only one.
Portugal has ~11m people, it has a very small manufacturing segment, 1 VW plant. It is a near contiguous area on a continental mass, its a member of the worlds largest free trade area, in arguably the most peaceful region on the planet.
Japan has ~130m people, it is the worlds third largest manufacturer, after the US & China. It is an island nation, with no regional institutions like the EU, and its situated in the second most dangerous region on the planet, from a long term perspective perhaps the most dangerous. When was the last time any of Germany's or Portugal's neighbours conducted a nuclear bomb test? Never. When was the last time one of their neighbours fired a long range missile over their territorial waters? Never.
The per capita energy consumption figures in Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (TOE) are - Portugal 2.36, Japan 4.02, Germany 4.03 (World Bank 2007).
It may be valid to compare Japan to Germany, but not to Portugal - the only thing they have in common is fishing. Japan must import, via the sea, most of its energy as raw fuel - nuclear, coal, gas, oil. It doesn't have the benefit of being a member of a continental economic union. It doesn't have the benefit of being plugged into direct pipelines from gas producers. It can't import electricity from its neighbours; in 2006 Germany imported 49.1 kw/hr of electricity, mainly from France which generates 80% of its power from guess what - nuclear.
Who put the first viable car with a hybrid engine on the road - Toyota, Who builds the most fuel efficient marine diesel engines - Hitachi & Mitsubishi ...
Let's look at per capita CO2 emissions - in metric tonnes per capita - Portugal 4.4, Japan 9.4, Germany 9.6
Japan needs a nuclear power industry so it can quickly become a nuclear armed state. It probably already has the components in a ready to assemble state.
The item regarding solar grid parity is an opinion from one person who works for a company with a vested interest, I can't find any modelling for his opinion.
'nuff said.
This is what the Syrian's are saying http://www.sana.sy/eng/22/2011/03/13/336372.htm
Based on these 2 para's in that report, it seems like Syria, Algeria and Mauritania voted No.
Whatever the truth, it wasn't unanimous.
"After putting the resolution to the vote, Ambassador Ahmad stated that Syria is not part of this resolution, as it rejects all forms of foreign intervention in Libya's affairs out of its keenness on Libya's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence."
"Following the announcement of the Syrian stance, Algeria's Foreign Minister and head of the Mauritanian delegation asked for their countries' stances to be registered against the content of the resolution because it has not addressed the remarks and sources of concern expressed by the delegations of Algeria and Mauritania at the first session."
According to the Syrian official news agency it was not a unanimous vote, Syria, Algeria & Mauritania each voted no.
http://www.sana.sy/eng/22/2011/03/13/336372.htm
@Hquain "Don’t the members of the Arab League themselves have sufficient forces of the right kind to do something useful on their own hook?
I'm sure they do mate. And I'm sure they could if a) they wanted to and b) if they were allowed to
I have the suspicion that US/NATO would rather they didn't do something off their own hook. If they did that then the raison d'etre of NATO would be blown out of the water.
The idea of everyone policing their own neighbourhood is an anathema to NATO, just think of all the high-pay jobs that would disappear in Brussels.
Here a start Tony http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=70957
http://www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidGN_12032011_130328/Security%20forces%20use%20banned%20gas%20on%20protesters/
search for "yemen news" - plenty of coverage
Why does Hague feel its necessary to say something about everything http://www.fco.gov.uk/en/news/latest-news/?view=News&id=564619582
Because he wants Cameron's job.
I never imagined that the Arab League would be be able to reach any sort of a consensus on this. They're to be congratulated. Perhaps the fact that EU failed to do so, gave the Arabs the impetus to out do the EU.
But will the Arabs actually participate in any overt military action, I doubt it, but maybe I'll be wrong on that too.
Personally I don't think the NFZ matters much, territory is won and lost on the ground, not in the air. The Arabs are smart enough know this too.
But nothing is going to happen without a UN-SC resolution.
The Arabs have leverage over China - oil. Will they use it to force China to vote yes to a UN resolution sanctioning military action - that's the next question.
But neither the Arabs, nor anyone else seems to have much leverage over Russia. Putin will want a lot more than visa-less travel with the US to sign up to a robust UN-SC resolution. Japan is going to need a lot of gas & oil from Russia whilst its nukes are out of action.
Long way to go yet.
Meanwhile Qaddafi continues the attacks on Misrata and Brega.
BBC ? James, I assume you mean the Bolshevik Bunkum Contrariat, or is there another one, if so pray tell where we can find it.
On Friday they reported Australia would be hit by the tsunami. Maybe don't they have a map, there's all of the Philippines, Borneo, Indonesia and a thumping great island called New Guinea between Japan & Australia. They just didn't bother to go the Aussie Met Bureau website.
The once excellent BBC-World Service is not even a mere shadow of its former self, and that's not just because of recent cuts. It's been going down hill since it found a market for it's output in the US, and decided to target a US audience. I'm sorry, but that means its been dumbing down its output for years. It should change its name to the TABC - Trans Atlantic Broadcasting Corporation.
The BBC started to go pear shaped in 2003 when Lyse Doucet was favored over Kate Adie to report on the 2003 Iraq invasion. Doucet set up shop in one of the camps on the Iraq/Jordan border, I can still recall her bemoaning the fact that the Iraqi's were not fleeing across the border in fear of the US forces. Adie would have been in Baghdad waiting for the Marines to offer them a cup of tea.
As I recall when the UN mandated NFZ was in operation over southern the Iraqi defence systems were not bombed unless they fired at US/UK planes. On the odd occasion they did launch a missile, the planes were able to take evasive action, before destroying the missile launch sites. I don't recall any US/UK planes being hit - but I may be wrong.
Likewise with Bosnia, I don't think the Serbs even bothered trying to use their air defence systems. Their air force was actually superfluous to their needs.
One of the few times (maybe the only time) that air power gained and held territory was when the US dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima & Nagasaki. Otherwise it can only weaken the enemy, if you have stronger ground forces then air power is nice to have, but not essential.
Also NFZ's are not as effective in keeping helicopters on the ground as they are at keeping regular fighter/bombers on the ground.
Gate's is playing to crowd who don't want the US involved in yet another middle east war. Can't say that I blame them, Lebanon 1983, Somalia 1993 .... ad-infinitum.
Headlines like this make me despair
"How will Japan earthquake affect Apple's iPad supply chain?"
A separate earthquake hit Niigatta province in n.w. Japan early this morning. It is unrelated to yesterdays event, its epicentre is under the land, so no tsunami. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1115973/1/.html
I wonder if Peter King and other US politicians who supported the IRA were/are aware that the IRA not only has links with Libya, but also with North Korea and Cuba ==>> http://indiamond6.ulib.iupui.edu:81/pyongyang.html.
In the Korean War 33,686 US troops were killed in battle, 2,830 died from non-battle causes (mainly disease and hypothermia) and there are 8,176 missing in action. Total deaths 44,692.
No need to send King to Britain. King and planty of others gave finacial support to an organisation that gave comfort to countries that are directly responsible for the deaths of thousands and thousands of Americans, troops and civilians.
At least Nixon was consistent, he disliked, distrusted everyone who didn't have gilt edged WASP credentials. Whereas the likes of King, and not a few others, on both sides of the aisle, are as fickle as roomful of paper dolls.
Then why does Ireland import a disproportionate amount of its oil from Qaddifi's Libya, proportionately more than any other country ==>> http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/02/libyan_oil. You'd think it would get most of its oil from say Norway, which shares Ireland's alleged neutrality.
The only reason that comes to my mind is in gratitude for Libya's supply of weapons, Cemtex etc to the IRA. Unlike Italy, Ireland has no historical links to Libya.
And why did Qaddaffi supply the weapons to the IRA. Partly because of the left wing ideology he shares with the IRA's political wing Sinn Fein, but mainly for the money. And where did the IRA get the money. Mainly from Peter King's pals in New York City & Ted Kennedy's in Boston of course. And what did Qaddafi do with money he made from sales of weapons to the IRA, Amongst other things he bombed a Pan Am plane over Lockerbie, that's what he did with it.
There's echo's of Iran/Contra here.
The existing UN-SC resolutions have painted Muammar Qaddafi into a corner, at 68 he's got nothing to lose, so he'll just set about crushing the "rebels".
His air force doesn't really matter. No fly zones didn't stop Mladich shelling Sarejevo, setting up rape camps, marching into Srebrenica to murder 8,000. Nor did they stop Hussein persecuting the Shia in Southern Iraq. Likewise they won't stop Qaddafi eventually marching into Ben Ghazi.
The NFZ over northern Iraq did help protect the Kurds, but the Kurds had a viable fighting force (the Pashmurga) that could be clandestinely armed, trained and otherwise supported; not unlike the KLA in Kosovo. I've not seen any evidence that the Eastern Libyans are anywhere near as well organised.
I've seen reports that the KLA have sent people to fight for Qaddafi, presumably in gratitude for the help he gave them in their struggle for independence. Ireland buys most of its oil from Libya, presumably in gratitude for Libya's supply of weapons and explosives to the IRA. He's pretty good at calling in his debts.
I'm more inclined to agree with Ttitakjang's real-politik, than with Dr. David C. Mace's fantasy.
If Qaddifi succeeds in crushing the rebellion, then Presidents, Bouteflika, Assad, Saleh etc; and Kings Mohammed VI, Abdullah II, Hamad Al Khalifa etc will be privately jumping for joy. I wouldn't be surprised to find out some time in the future, that they did all they could to break the UN sanctions against Qaddafi.
"threatening to cut off their Marshall Plan money."
1. Britain received about $3.3bn from the Marshall Plan. But over the next 50 years Britain repaid its Lend Lease debts to the US and Canada. The total amounts repaid were US $7.5bn, and Canada $2bn.
2. The disbursement of funds from the Marshall ended in 1952.
"In contrast, the pan-Arab press outside Libya is extremely critical of the idea of Western intervention in Libya, even where it is virulently anti-Qaddafi."
Perhaps the reason the other Arab nations don't support a no-fly zone is because it would set a precedent that might be applied to them if they wanted to bomb their own citizens.
"likened by the Saudi newspaper al-Iqtisadiya [The Economy] to Israel’s routine use of bombing against the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip. This comparison seems to me extraordinary and a sign of how unpopular Qaddafi is among Arab intellectuals and in the Arab public"
Or is it that the Saudi regime will say anything so as to ensure that they continue to enjoy unlimited support from Washington.
I would think that a NATO naval exercise, including a couple of carriers, conducted off the coast of Libya might deter the Colonel's fly boys from flying.
I's the sort of thing that's often done off the coasts of Nth Korea, China & Iran, without any UN resolution, so why not off the coast of Libya.
More thoughts on Libya's tribal structures here -->> http://geocurrentevents.blogspot.com/2011/02/libyas-tribal-divisions-and-nation.html?
I heard a BBC news report that claims that Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq continues to refer to Hosni Mubarak and "The President". I can't help feeling that he's just taking a furlough in Sharm-el-Sheikh.
I have a recollection that Qaddafi created a militia with recruits from central African states - Chad, Niger, C.A.R, Sudan etc. I think it was as the time he turned his back on the Arab League and focused on the OAU (now known as the African Unity).
Maybe the people that the western media are referring to as "mercenaries" are in fact this militia. Much of the western media seems to think that sub-Saharan Africa is everywhere south of the Mediterranean littoral states.
Aziz, do you really believe that Mr Qaddifi would take a call from Obama, I don't.
The Egyptian military probably had more to do with Mubarak's decision to step down than anything that Obama said or did. The Egyptian military probably told the US military of their plans and they in turn would have told Obama.